2021 NHL Draft

[neo45]

Don’t like trading down. It worked out ok last year because Zary is very good value that late in the first, but it’s a total loser mentality to have a bunch of guys ranked in a tier and be indifferent about which one you end up with

Like isn’t the whole point of the scouting staff working all year to know which guy is the best out of that grouping? Because they won’t all end up being equal

Trading down is essentially letting more confident teams make your decision for you

[Bingo]

List updated with McKenzie's recent scout ranking

https://www.calgarypuck.com/wp-conte...onsensus-2.pdf

I'd say the new band for the Calgary pick has changed a bit with Wallstedt joining the group, and Raty and Lambos moving back.

9 Jesper Wallstedt 9.90
10 Mason Mctavish 11.00
11 Fabian Lysell 12.55
12 Cole Sillinger 13.55
13 Chaz Lucius 14.05

[Toonage]

In an ordinary year I'd agree, but this draft? With so much uncertainty? If you can get a bunch of lottery tickets, take them.

[stemit14]

Unless the flames are able to move the pick in a package for eichel, I hope they just use the pick that they have and don’t trade down. Not that it didn’t work out last year… but it made me nervous cause I kept wanting them to take Zary or Lapierre. Every time they traded down I figured those two would get taken by the time the flames got to podium again. Credit to the flames for getting Zary and still getting extra picks out of it but I was very nervous.

I feel like the flames have a shot at a good player no matter how the top 11 picks work out. Just hope they take a chance on a high ceiling player - whoever that may be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I don't see Philadelphia or Dallas as having the picks to make it work, and definitely aren't doing anything with Winnipeg or Edmonton, so that leaves Nashville.

To Nashville: Pick 13 (really pick 12), pick 77 and pick 84

To Calgary: Pick 19 (really pick 18), pick 40, and pick 51

Flames then pick 19th, 40th, 45th, and 51st.

That would be a solid piece of business.

Get a pretty decent name at 19 and then haul in some quantity from guys that could or should have gone the first day.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by neo45

Don’t like trading down. It worked out ok last year because Zary is very good value that late in the first, but it’s a total loser mentality to have a bunch of guys ranked in a tier and be indifferent about which one you end up with

If you have a bunch of guys that you think are all close to each other that establishes a tier where you're probably happy to get any of them. Happens when you evaluate talent. It's almost impossible to get into a ordinal ranking for every player because of the way scouting is done, with some many people being involved.

Like isn’t the whole point of the scouting staff working all year to know which guy is the best out of that grouping? Because they won’t all end up being equal

That is there job, but since you have different people viewing players in different leagues it is very difficult to make that ultimate call. Plus, you are trying to figure out who is most likely to meet or exceed their potential, not make a call on what you see in junior leagues around the globe. You're picking on potential.

Trading down is essentially letting more confident teams make your decision for you

Really? I see it as the opposite. You've made you decision that you think player X is better than any of the players available, so you're going to go by that evaluation by your scouts and put your trust in them. You trade down to follow their advice and get an extra body for their efforts.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Get a pretty decent name at 19 and then haul in some quantity from guys that could or should have gone the first day.

That's the intent. Clean up in aisle two and benefit long term. The system needs a trade like this one to get some more talent into the cupboards.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

If you have a bunch of guys that you think are all close to each other that establishes a tier where you're probably happy to get any of them. Happens when you evaluate talent. It's almost impossible to get into a ordinal ranking for every player because of the way scouting is done, with some many people being involved.



That is there job, but since you have different people viewing players in different leagues it is very difficult to make that ultimate call. Plus, you are trying to figure out who is most likely to meet or exceed their potential, not make a call on what you see in junior leagues around the globe. You're picking on potential.



Really? I see it as the opposite. You've made you decision that you think player X is better than any of the players available, so you're going to go by that evaluation by your scouts and put your trust in them. You trade down to follow their advice and get an extra body for their efforts.

Have just agreed with two of your posts in a row.

First time since 2003!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Come on, I would have said 2007.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Come on, I would have said 2007.

Oh, just when you were so close to having a three-post winning streak!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Come on, I would have said 2007.

Nope.

Only happened once.

I had a plaque made up.

[dammage79]

I dont know, I don't like the idea of trading down this year. Just take the best guy and be done with it. Unless they're offering you a 2nd rounder in this draft to move up.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I dont know, I don't like the idea of trading down this year. Just take the best guy and be done with it. Unless they're offering you a 2nd rounder in this draft to move up.

But who is ‘the best guy’? Nobody knows that with any precision.

This is the least scouted draft in history. Most of these kids played curtailed schedules, and some didn't play at all. What scouts do agree on, apparently, is that there is very little high-end talent. The difference in value between pick #12 and #18 is probably less than it has ever been or will ever be again.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

But who is ‘the best guy’? Nobody knows that with any precision.

This is the least scouted draft in history. Most of these kids played curtailed schedules, and some didn't play at all. What scouts do agree on, apparently, is that there is very little high-end talent. The difference in value between pick #12 and #18 is probably less than it has ever been or will ever be again.

There is no precision, and since there's "very little " high end talent....which seems pretty disingenuous and uneducated for an opinion, then you should value the high pick more for the best chance at landing one.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dammage79

There is no precision, and since there's "very little " high end talent....which seems pretty disingenuous and uneducated for an opinion,

I'm just quoting scouts and the media that report on them. I guess the whole flipping NHL is ‘disingenuous and uneducated’. Sod you.

then you should value the high pick more for the best chance at landing one.

So you’re saying that the more uncertainty you face, the more you should bet that you know the right pick to make? Riiiiiiight.

Tell you what: Lanny made most of the argument for my position in post #1784 above. I didn't think it was necessary to repeat the whole thing to show that I'm not an idiot. Why don't you go and argue with him?

[Wolfman]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I dont know, I don't like the idea of trading down this year. Just take the best guy and be done with it. Unless they're offering you a 2nd rounder in this draft to move up.

I agree. If anything this is the year to trade up IMO.

[GioforPM]

If anything this is the year to trade down if a bunch of guys in your group of equivalent players is still around.

[1qqaaz]

I would entertain a trade down, just because of what I perceive to be tiers in the draft:

1 to 8/9
10 to 22 or so

The Flames are on the higher end of the second tier. Possibly too low to get any of the good tier 1 prospects that fall, yet not in a position to pick someone who is much better than the player drafted at 19.

Now I think this draft will be wild. Guys like McTavish, Edvinsson, or Wallstedt can fall. Other guys may go way earlier than expected.
For that reason, if you trade down, you have to see who is available first. The trade would have to be at the draft floor.

If the Flames think Sillinger, Lucius, Coronato, Lysell, and Svechkov are all close, and all of them are available at 12, then it might make sense to trade down to 19.
Because it's very likely that one of them will still be available at 19. I also think the range from 23 to 50 or so is fairly close. So it might be nice to get another second around 50.

But it's also possible the Flames consider one of those guys to be top 10 talents. In which case, I doubt they move down.

I doubt the Flames move up, because the risk is considerable. Most of these guys have small sample sizes. If they move up, they would really have to like someone. And the cost might be considerable. But depending on who it is, it could still be worth it.

[Roof-Daddy]

Aren't 2nd and 3rd rounders said to be at a premium this year due to the uncertainty of the draft?

If you can trade down, still get a player you like, while at the same time add more 2nd/3rd/4th rounders I think that would be very smart.

[Ashasx]

I would try to add picks for next years draft (3rd round or better).

[ComixZone]

There seems to be a pretty good cliff after Sillinger/Lucius. Given our draft spot, I wouldn’t want to see them move down unless they somehow catch wind that Sillinger or Lucius are dropping.