CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

Vote: starseed

[starseed]

Some thoughts while catching up:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I'm still trying to figure out exactly what happened there. It looks like Pux and Squiggs were swayed by my post. The move by Starseed to save himself was scummy in my opinion (and I said so). Diss agreed with my comment to put Starseed ahead.

Devo used this same ridiculous logic against ECF when he voted to protect you against lynch on day 3.

Originally Posted by devo22

alright, I can get behind the arguments made by Elephant and SebC. Plus ECF coming back some time after his death post to defend himself and - more importantly - move his vote to mrkajz does reek of desperation to save his life more than anything else.

unvote
vote East Coast Flame

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

So there is a very real possibility of two turned now. Wonderful.

This is your prototypical scum tell right here. 'I feel the same anxiety the town feels! See how I am describing the same frustrations that you are feeling?'


At this point I still feel that PE has a strong underlying link to mrkaj, and mrkaj's lynch could provide the best information at this point.

I am very torn between 5 players at this point for host candidate, so I am going to go with the scum suspect whose flip will provide the most information.

Vote: mrkajz44

Saved from lynch multiple times by similar posters. We would get some very solid leads.

[starseed]

Also, I wish I had more time to do a vote/unvote spreadsheet like last game. Anyone else have a list handy?

[Timbo]

So starseed do you believe Party Elephant calling out bizaro to vote mrkajz is contrived?

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Well it wouldn't just be a vote.

Day 1 Lego votes Girly, Timbo and I vote activeStick
Day 2 we all vote Girly
Day 3 we all vote you
Day 3 we all vote you

This is why I think it's a good scum strategy, you can make a nice small and concise post like this and say scum would never do that. If you were not really paying attention to context, it would be easy to agree. However, I am trying to see past that:

Day 1 - Typically behavior with one or two hosts voting out a townie

Day 2 - Opportunity is seen to get all three of you on a lynch, something that would be unexpected of scum, so you all land on the same person

Day 3 - HG is in a little trouble, so he gets help from his buddies and end up on mrkajz. Once the shift to mrkajz happens, movement to ECF is not required and might raise questions, so all three scum on the same voter again

Day 4 - mrkajz can still be a target. Two of the three scum remain consistent with votes against him, and the Starseed switch-out provides opportunity for one scum to vote elsewhere. All of a sudden the vote is close, so Starseed has to move over to mrkajz to save himself. All three scum end up on the same person

The above context seems pretty reasonable to me. Day 1 and 2 was easy as no one was ever in trouble really, but Day 3 and 4 dictated a bit more dancing to avoid trouble. End result is scum ending up all voting in line, so the follow-up strategy is to say "come on, scum would never do that". It's actually a pretty good plan.

[Timbo]

Stopped in for a pint at my pub to watch the 1st period and read mrkajz44's post. And shot beer out of my nose and mouth as I read that hilarity of thought process.

[Timbo]

Clean up on aisle Timbo

Vote mrkajz44

[GirlySports]

Vote Count

Hasn't Voted (4): bizaro86, squiggs96, SebC, Hockeyguy15

starseed (4): Party Elephant, Peanut, mrkajz44, Puxlut
bizaro86 (2): devo22, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (2): starseed, Timbo
squiggs96 (1): Oling_Roachinen
Party Elephant (1): GGG



The deadline is Friday, June 19th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Hammer cannot be dropped before Monday, June 15th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[squiggs96]

Let's assume the following happened:

Night 0: Oling receives the spore and does not turn
Night 1: Oling passes the spore to Girly and she does not turn
Day 2: Girly is lynched
Night 2: The spore is returned to the Captain
Night 3: The spore is passed

If Oling is not a host, then I can assume the GA has investigated him and found he has not be turned as of night 3 at the latest. No one on Day 4 announced they had the spore. That in itself is not that interesting, because assuming the above scenario played out the only options on Day 4 are:

1. A passenger received the spore and was not turned. They wouldn't know they had received the spore if they weren't turned
2. A passenger received the spore and was turned. They wouldn't announce as their endgame likely has changed.
3. A host received the spore and was not turned. They obviously wouldn't announce that they had it, as it would draw attention to them.

Now that it is Day 5, the same 1-3 options above are in play. As of this post everyone has made at least one post on Day 5. Not one person has announced they received the spore on Night 3 (would have been told on Night 4), and no one has said they sent it anywhere. This means there is at least one passenger turned from night 3, and they would have known this all throughout day 4. They also know where the spore is right now. If that person is turned, there are two people that are turned. The good news is if we have a 5 in 14 chance of lynching somebody that helps the town (3 hosts and 2 turned). The bad news is, we don't know who is turned. The worse case scenario is the spore was passed to the GA and he/she is turned. This also assumes that the hosts haven't passed the spore back and forth to each other, as I suggested in my last off the wall theory. I can see why they would do this, and it makes us townies discuss the spore more than some people feel the need to.

I thought the odds were high that Oling would have received the spore on night 3. He disagreed. Since he announced he did not receive it he is either telling the truth, he is turned, or he is a host. I'm really not sure where to put him right now.

Let's assume, for this scenario, that a passenger was turned on Day 4 (from Night 3's receipt). Let's further assume, that it is not Oling. Since the turned passenger wants to increase the turned population, who would he send it to? Likely it wouldn't be mrkajz or starseed, since they were the two leading vote getters. Maybe they go for an experienced player. Maybe they go for a 1st timer. I think the theory on where to send it becomes very difficult. I'm hoping if the GA investigated Oling or Seb last night, that they investigate the other once Night 5 comes up.

I know many don't want to discuss the spore, but I think it's a key part of the game, especially now that there are possibly two turned passengers. I think it can help with who to vote for. Although it's ideal to lynch a host, a nice plan B is lynching a turned. The perfect scenario is to lynch a host and have the GA investigate one of the turned. Hopefully we start hitting on this soon. If we lynch a non-turned passenger today, and the GA doesn't investigate someone he/she can kill, we'd be down to 5 or 6 bad guys vs. 8 or 7 town. This is not a situation I want to be in. At that point it could be over on Day 7, with a host slaughtering of the town.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Timbo

So starseed do you believe Party Elephant calling out bizaro to vote mrkajz is contrived?

Nah that doesn't fit his narrative so he'll ignore it.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Timbo

So starseed do you believe Party Elephant calling out bizaro to vote mrkajz is contrived?

Without going back a few pages to see the full context of that exchange, it did strike me as something that Oling from last game would do. Then again, especially after waiting until 10:03 to vote, my confidence in bizarro is shaky.


I thought that players who receive the spore know that they had received it. How else would they know to choose someone else to pass it to?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

This is why I think it's a good scum strategy, you can make a nice small and concise post like this and say scum would never do that. If you were not really paying attention to context, it would be easy to agree. However, I am trying to see past that:

Day 1 - Typically behavior with one or two hosts voting out a townie

Day 2 - Opportunity is seen to get all three of you on a lynch, something that would be unexpected of scum, so you all land on the same person

Day 3 - HG is in a little trouble, so he gets help from his buddies and end up on mrkajz. Once the shift to mrkajz happens, movement to ECF is not required and might raise questions, so all three scum on the same voter again

Day 4 - mrkajz can still be a target. Two of the three scum remain consistent with votes against him, and the Starseed switch-out provides opportunity for one scum to vote elsewhere. All of a sudden the vote is close, so Starseed has to move over to mrkajz to save himself. All three scum end up on the same person

The above context seems pretty reasonable to me. Day 1 and 2 was easy as no one was ever in trouble really, but Day 3 and 4 dictated a bit more dancing to avoid trouble. End result is scum ending up all voting in line, so the follow-up strategy is to say "come on, scum would never do that". It's actually a pretty good plan.

Except your theory isn't reasonable for 2 reasons. First, I know you are wrong because I am not scum and not working with anyone. Second, this would be one of the worst scum strategies ever because as soon as we found 1 scum the other 2 would clearly be linked to them and their game would be over.

What this post reads like is a host who didn't think through their potential host list and instead of saying something like "maybe I am wrong, maybe all 3 of you aren't connected" you tried to force your argument to fit the events of the past days.

Vote: mrkajz44

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by starseed

Also, I wish I had more time to do a vote/unvote spreadsheet like last game. Anyone else have a list handy?

First 3 votes.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1320

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by starseed

Without going back a few pages to see the full context of that exchange, it did strike me as something that Oling from last game would do. Then again, especially after waiting until 10:03 to vote, my confidence in bizarro is shaky.


I thought that players who receive the spore know that they had received it. How else would they know to choose someone else to pass it to?

Seriously???? This is like one of the most discussed things in this game! You could almost open any page of this thread, at random, and find an explanation of how the spore works. You only know you have it IF YOU TURN! Otherwise you are notified at night when mazrim asks you to pass it.

This post reads like intentional misdirection and is hardly the first time you failed to do your homework.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Except your theory isn't reasonable for 2 reasons. First, I know you are wrong because I am not scum and not working with anyone. Second, this would be one of the worst scum strategies ever because as soon as we found 1 scum the other 2 would clearly be linked to them and their game would be over.

What this post reads like is a host who didn't think through their potential host list and instead of saying something like "maybe I am wrong, maybe all 3 of you aren't connected" you tried to force your argument to fit the events of the past days.

Vote: mrkajz44

Well, your first reason isn't actually a reason (side bar: I don't know why people continue to use "I know I'm town" as an argument). And the second reason is why I think it's not a bad strategy. It is easy to make the argument that scum would never all vote in line, so if one of you flip scum, I'm sure that would be the main defense thrown out. It's also somewhat hard to go against that reasoning, so I think it would gain good traction.

And to be clear, I wasn't saying this was your strategy all along. The way voting went on Day 3 and 4 sort of forced your hand to play like this. So now you've made the best of your situation and are playing as such.

Really, all I'm saying is I don't think it is completely unreasonable based on the context of how each day played out. My strategy is to view vote patterns to try and hunt scum, and I think I've dug this up, so I shared it with the town.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by starseed

I thought that players who receive the spore know that they had received it. How else would they know to choose someone else to pass it to?

I really don't like this question. I think PE answers it about as well as I could.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Seriously???? This is like one of the most discussed things in this game! You could almost open any page of this thread, at random, and find an explanation of how the spore works. You only know you have it IF YOU TURN! Otherwise you are notified at night when mazrim asks you to pass it.

This post reads like intentional misdirection and is hardly the first time you failed to do your homework.

vote starseed

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

GGG and Oiling - I was just being a bit cautious with the game. There were assumptions being made and I was concerned a plan would be made just a few hours into the game on assumptions that didn't hold true. It turns out my speculation was right that if the spore was given out and the person was not turned, they actually don't know until the first night.

We really have to watch assumptions being made, especially early. The clan thing really threw the game off the rails in the last game due to a lot of assumptions (or guesses) being made about them.

mrkajz says we need to watch the assumptions we make. His very next post he makes the odd assumption that Mazrim didn't make a simple error and comes up with a complicated theory.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Interesting catch. The first post is clear there are 14 innocent and 3 hosts (paragraph 2 and 3 under game setup). So with 12 vanillas and 3 special powers, the math doesn't quite work. Either:

1) Mazrim made an error in how many vanillas there are (unlikely IMO)
2) Either the agent or the smuggler also has the genetic anomaly

Since the agent already has the double coin flip to turn, getting the anomaly as well seems like an overload. So maybe the Smuggler also has the anomaly because they are move likely to get the spore by hiding people?

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Day one is always tough. GGG and Oiling came out super strong, but that seemed to be their style in the last game as well, so I'm not convinced that's a tell in itself. Then we have the inactive crowd (Party, devo, Active, and Lego). Active's 1 post was gameplay related, but the others haven't really said much at all. I feel like I don't have a good read on anyone yet, but I think more chatter usually helps out with starting to get some reads on people, so hopefully the inactives get a little more involved soon.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

The weekend always seems to throw a kink into this game as everyone is (understandably) enjoying themselves, especially with the beautiful weather. The flip side to that is it makes it easy for the scum to lie in the weeds and wait because the total post count is just so low. Deadline is still not until Tuesday night, so I might wait out the weekend to see a bit more activity, specifically from low posters.

snip

He then says we need more chatter and activity for people so it's harder for the hosts to hide. Then he changes his tune and says Seb has a good point about posting less, then points the finger at PE for agreeing with Seb.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

snip

For me, thinking about some of the posts that came off as "different" early on, I have to say that Seb's strategy definitely caught my attention. It has some merit for sure, where there is simply too much noise with lots of posts. Sort of a direct shot against "the more information the better". It's a bit outside the box, but not a terrible idea.

However, what struck me as much more interesting was the way Party sort of latched onto that idea and ran with it. It seems like Seb thought out that strategy and wants to stick to it, but Party just grabbed a hold of the same idea and uses that to explain a very low post count, that has little to no content. Party also said they were new to Mafia, and I'm guessing drawing a Mafia card in their very first game would be very nerve racking and the fear of slipping up would be great, hence the low post count without much substance. Their instant vote sort of tears down that argument though, but maybe it was just heat of the moment?

snip

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

snip
Girly's "deathbed" post sort of just feels like a vanilla townie saying that there is no big reveal coming, and she is willing to help as much as possible. She's not getting aggressive or anything; I guess I'd just figure scum would be defending themselves moreso.

This is how he described Girly's death post, doesn't it sound pretty similar how he wrote his yesterday?

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Well - it seems the vote is pretty much set, so its time to spill the (vanilla) beans.

There is no great reveal here, I am just a vanilla townie.

My best advice is for everyone to make sure every post you are making revolves around hunting scum. There are too many posts right now that don't focus on that, and in the famous words of Seb, it just creates noise.

The spore will only distract and the government agent is still out there (I hope) doing their work on it. Long posts back and forth between each other about small details just let the scum hide and watch.

Look at voting patterns, when people vote, reasoning, and try your best to view from multiple angles. Don't start with a conclusion and try to fit the evidence into what you've already decided. Start with 3 or 4 scenarios and look at things through different lenses and see which lens is the best focused.

My top picks for scum are clear. HG is my top pick, he clearly has an agenda and was likely saved by scum movement on the Day 3 vote. Watch for how he stars subtly steering tomorrow.

Starseed is not contributing like he did last game and did a great job showing up and just blending in. His predecessor Lego liked to do full town lists, and not really focus on anyone.

Timbo likes to pick apart posts, but he tends to do it by twisting words. It seems he knows he can't quite put the logic together, so a small "misinterpretation" of words helps the cause.

Diss loves to stand up and shout "look at how I am acting like the model townie"! He makes sure you know he is doing town things, almost to convince himself that he is acting how a townie would.

I am convinced 2 of those 4 are scum. Hunt them down.

[Timbo]

Both starseed and mrkajz are triping major red flags for me right now! I will move my vote if needed to prevent a reoccurrence of the last day.

[GirlySports]

Vote Count

Hasn't Voted (2): bizaro86, SebC

starseed (5): Party Elephant, Peanut, mrkajz44, Puxlut, squiggs96
mrkajz44 (3): starseed, Timbo, Hockeyguy15
bizaro86 (2): devo22, dissentowner
squiggs96 (1): Oling_Roachinen
Party Elephant (1): GGG



The deadline is Friday, June 19th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Hammer cannot be dropped before Monday, June 15th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Well, your first reason isn't actually a reason (side bar: I don't know why people continue to use "I know I'm town" as an argument). And the second reason is why I think it's not a bad strategy. It is easy to make the argument that scum would never all vote in line, so if one of you flip scum, I'm sure that would be the main defense thrown out. It's also somewhat hard to go against that reasoning, so I think it would gain good traction.

And to be clear, I wasn't saying this was your strategy all along. The way voting went on Day 3 and 4 sort of forced your hand to play like this. So now you've made the best of your situation and are playing as such.

Really, all I'm saying is I don't think it is completely unreasonable based on the context of how each day played out. My strategy is to view vote patterns to try and hunt scum, and I think I've dug this up, so I shared it with the town.

How is it not a reason? I know my alignment and I know if I am working with people or not. With that knowledge I can say that your theory is not reasonable because it's not what happened. Obviously people won't know if I am telling the truth or not until they get my card flip.

I can't see how you can say it's not a bad strategy for the hosts. Clearly it's a bad strategy because if that is how things played out then you have already solved who the 3 hosts are, that right there shows it's a bad strategy.

Again this post just looks like a host scrambling, trying to shoehorn a poor argument into how the events played out. in your death post you said to everyone to try their best to view things from multiple angles and see which fits best. Are you saying that out of all the possible scenarios, that the most likely one is that myself, Timbo and Lego/starseed are the hosts and we all voted the same 3 out of 4 votes (4 now because we are all on you again)?