[Signing] Rangers sign Adam Fox to 7 year extension ($9.5 mil AAV) - Page 9 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Hot_Flatus · 11-02-2021, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Probably not. That said, I’m more impressed by Makar’s game than Fox’s. Makar is pretty good defensively and just controls play offensively. Fox just doesn’t seem like the centrepiece of plays as much as Makar, and I’m not convinced he’s as good defensively as Makar (or Heiskenan).

It’s not a bad contract, I’m just not convinced it’s some huge discount.

Sounds like sour grapes to me. Fox is a great player at both ends and certainly doesn't need to be as good defensively as Makar or Heiskenan to be worth the investment, but he probably is better than both based on what I've seen out of all three.

GioforPM · 11-02-2021, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Let's put it this way: if they were both available, I would be going 100% after Makar, before Fox.

I agree that it's hard to know how much to use advanced stats to measure defence. I like Makar's wheels, which seem like they are better than Fox's. Makar's physical stats are the same but for some reason IMO he plays a bit bigger.

Writers seem to like Makar more as well, for some reason. One even said he would have won the Norris but for his 10 less games.

https://www.nhl.com/news/best-defens...le/c-325984298

The Yen Man · 11-02-2021, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm reliably told by this thread that all the pundits are calling it a "steal". I've called it a fair contract from the get go.

This. I don't understand how this is a "steal". $9.5M would put him in the top 10 in dmen contracts. Just because Chicago, Edmonton, and Columbus overpaid for their overrated dmen doesn't mean $9.5M is all of a sudden a steal. It's a fair deal.

GioforPM · 11-02-2021, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Sounds like sour grapes to me. Fox is a great player at both ends and certainly doesn't need to be as good defensively as Makar or Heiskenan to be worth the investment, but he probably is better than both based on what I've seen out of all three.

Sour grapes? Nah. I rarely give any thought about the Fox stuff and when I do I think that Calgary did better with that level of pick than teams normally do even considering he forced a trade. In fact, I took Fox in my pool so I'm generally happy he does well.

I haven't seen enough of Heiskenan to comment - I just love Makar's play, more than Fox's. It's that simple. Makar just seems to control play up and down the ice a lot more. Like I say, it's all eye test and just a lay opinion.

The Cobra · 11-02-2021, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I said more talented. He's not a better player than Mackinnon yet. And he plays defence which is paid less for some reason. And I like Makar's deal, though it's only 6 years.

If Makar's deal was 8 years, the cost likely would have been $11M.

Those extra 2 years would have been very costly based on Makar's age when the contract was over.

It's the main reason that Johnny's contract seemed cheap at the time, but it was only 6 years. Calgary's paying for that now.

GioforPM · 11-02-2021, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If Makar's deal was 8 years, the cost likely would have been $11M.

Those extra 2 years would have been very costly based on Makar's age when the contract was over.

It's the main reason that Johnny's contract seemed cheap at the time, but it was only 6 years. Calgary's paying for that now.

Fox's deal is only 7.

I think that extreme upper end money isn't as easily thrown around as some people here. and when it is, there's often a lot of regret (see Marner, M).

dino7c · 11-02-2021, 11:56 AM

Yeah I think it's fair value... especially considering he won't play anywhere else.

Also that Norris is a one off IMO. He really padded his stats playing the covid ridden Flyers with ECHL goal tending multiple times over a couple weeks.

I doubt he wins another

The Cobra · 11-02-2021, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Fox's impact is weird. He's not particularily fast, not particularily strong. Most of those guys are pretty big and fast and smart.

But Fox' hockey sense is almost generational. He's basically a 38, 39 year old Lidstrom.

Which is weird praise for a 20-something in his prime, but it is praise.

And that skill set never diminishes.

The Cobra · 11-02-2021, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Let's put it this way: if they were both available, I would be going 100% after Makar, before Fox.

Considering their contracts, Fox would be the player most teams would go after. Those extra three years of control are huge.

Knightslayer · 11-02-2021, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Admittedly, my opinion is based on eye test only. But I've seen more of Makar I suppose. He plays very well defensively IMO, for a guy who goes up ice as much as he does.

I think Makar is the most talented guy on his team. Over Rantanen, and Mackinnon.

Well the eye test of the people who voted for the Norris thought Fox was better and the numbers support that as well.

Knightslayer · 11-02-2021, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino7c

Yeah I think it's fair value... especially considering he won't play anywhere else.

Also that Norris is a one off IMO. He really padded his stats playing the covid ridden Flyers with ECHL goal tending multiple times over a couple weeks.

I doubt he wins another

He's a PPG player this year as well and hasn't missed a beat.

GioforPM · 11-02-2021, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

He's a PPG player this year as well and hasn't missed a beat.

what do you mean "this year as well"? He wasn't last year.

Unlike Makar

GioforPM · 11-02-2021, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Well the eye test of the people who voted for the Norris thought Fox was better and the numbers support that as well.

Makar only played 44 games. I suspect that factored. It was the second closest vote (after Vezina).

Enoch Root · 11-02-2021, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Considering their contracts, Fox would be the player most teams would go after. Those extra three years of control are huge.

There is only one more year of control.

Fox got 7 x $9.5M

Makar got 6 x $9M

In order to equate those deals, Makar needs to make $12.5M

I mean, he might, but that is by no means guaranteed. Anyone thinking Fox's deal is 'cheaper' because of the extra year is wrong (unless they think that it is very likely that Makar gets more than $12.5M)

Strange Brew · 11-02-2021, 12:10 PM

Look at this way. In the last four years of this deal, Fox will be in his prime. And he probably won't be one of the 50 highest paid players in the league.

It's the Gio contract without the age risk.

I feel like the people diminishing the value of this contract are some of the same that defend the contract for Rasmus. Fox doesn't need to grow into this deal, he will likely grow out of it.

Kovaz · 11-02-2021, 12:10 PM

I think the Fox vs. Makar debate gets at the heart of where some advanced stats fall short of truly capturing a player's value. When you sum up something like WAR, you're getting the average across all situations, for a whole season. Fox pretty clearly has higher hockey IQ, and Makar has clearly better physical tools. And it totally makes sense that, on average, making the right decision 99% of the time generates more value than making the right decision 90% of the time, with better skating and puck handling.

But the catch is that there are plays that Makar can make that Fox simply can't, no matter how smart he is. And in a high-stakes situation against an elite team, sometimes that's the only way to beat them. And when I'm building a team to win the Cup, I'm willing to accept some sloppy giveaways throughout the year for the ability to totally take over a playoff game, even though the former is worth more WAR when you sum it up.

I guarantee that, top-to-bottom, the 2018-19 Flames had more WAR on their roster than the 2018-19 Avs, but I know which team I'd rather be.

GioforPM · 11-02-2021, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

There is only one more year of control.

Fox got 7 x $9.5M

Makar got 6 x $9M

In order to equate those deals, Makar needs to make $12.5M

I mean, he might, but that is by no means guaranteed. Anyone thinking Fox's deal is 'cheaper' because of the extra year is wrong (unless they think that it is very likely that Makar gets more than $12.5M)

How many UFA years did each buy (though it seems like UFA years are becoming irrelevant).

Erick Estrada · 11-02-2021, 12:11 PM

I'm not nearly as upset with Fox as with Erixon (he wasn't honest). Fox would have done the same to any organization that drafted him other than the Rangers so I don't consider it a slight to the Flames. I don't wish him a Stanley Cup ring or anything but I've been over him for a while as to me he was never a part of the organization in any capacity outside of being a college prospect. Time to move on.

Enoch Root · 11-02-2021, 12:12 PM

^ for clarity, I mean Makar needs to make $12.5M in the next year after these 6 years, to equate their contracts.

(and even then, the advantage is still to Makar's, as paying later is better than paying now)

GioforPM · 11-02-2021, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Look at this way. In the last four years of this deal, Fox will be in his prime. And he probably won't be one of the 50 highest paid players in the league.

It's the Gio contract without the age risk.

I feel like the people diminishing the value of this contract are some of the same that defend the contract for Rasmus. Fox doesn't need to grow into this deal, he will likely grow out of it.

And I feel like people are taking "it's a fair deal, not some steal" or "I like Makar a little better" a little too hard.

I agree - the cap increase (or freeze) will have a lot to say about this deal and the others like it. Some teams are clearly banking on a bigger increase.