[News] UPD: Habs do not match Canes offer sheet to Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1 yr, $6.1 mil)

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

True, loyalty only goes so far, and I don’t think it precludes anyone from saying “that’s too much money, I’m signing”.

I guess from Mangiapane’s perspective (or any RFA), you have to consider the value of a one-year bump versus signing a long term deal (although, as mentioned above, there is nothing stopping you from negotiating in principle). I suppose there is value to getting to UFA status as well, but unless you’re good enough to create a legitimate bidding war, are you really going to end up that much further ahead?

Also, maybe the player really wants to play with “X” team, because he grew up there, or whatever reason? I think that’s maybe less of a factor with Mangiapane, especially if he likes it here and wants to stay in the organization that gave him a chance to play in the NHL. For all we know, it’s possible Kotkaniemi hated Montreal...

Why would Mangiapane be so happy with the Flames organization? They played hard ball with him in his contract negotiations where they gave large long term deals to lesser players (Andersson, Hanifin) Dube got a much better deal than Mangiapane at the same point in their careers.

Mangiapane career highlight was outside of the Flames with Team Canada.
Right now he would be the clear cut candidate from the Flames for a spot on the Canadian Olympic team.

I don't think that there is a worry about an offer sheet for Mangiapane as if he plays close to the level he is expected this season he would be looking for close to 6M on his next contract.

[Robbob]

I like the move. Costs you a picks and cap space for year, but then get the player under more friendly contract on the next long term deal. If it works out how people think it will, great use of cap space. Decent risk to take on a player like KK.

[ricardodw]

Carolina is tempting Karma.

Oilers were 25th in the league when they got Penner. Tyler Myers was drafted in the Oiler spot in the 2008 draft

Over the next 4 years, even with Penner as well or better than expected, the Oilers were 29th out of 30 in the league.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I like the move. Costs you a picks and cap space for year, but then get the player under more friendly contract on the next long term deal. If it works out how people think it will, great use of cap space. Decent risk to take on a player like KK.

I don't mind the strategy behind the move, and I think they've structured it in such a way that it has a chance
But partly because the payer just isn't that good. And that's the issue - this isn't a guy I would be throwing that kind of coin at. Even if there is another long-term in the back pocket, there is just little about Kotkaniemi that has impressed me.

[SportsJunky]

Karma isn't real.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Look at it this way, if mangipane was holding out and would only sign for 6 million and a team offered a first and third for him would you take it?

Is the first rounder protected? How funny would it be if a team did this, missed the playoffs and their pick won the lottery. Imagine getting the first overall pick for Kotkaniemi...

I don’t think you can protect the pick, since it’s automatic compensation under the CBA.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't mind the strategy behind the move, and I think they've structured it in such a way that it has a chance
But partly because the payer just isn't that good. And that's the issue - this isn't a guy I would be throwing that kind of coin at. Even if there is another long-term in the back pocket, there is just little about Kotkaniemi that has impressed me.

The thing is he's kind of Bennett-ish. Underwhelms in the regular season and looks like he's a career bottom 6 guy, but then in the playoffs he's suddenly a different player. Florida seems to like how that's worked out with Sam.

I'm on the fence overall. Obviously if the Habs match you're no better or worse off, but if they don't, this is a gamble on a) fit for Kotkaniemi (they bet he takes a step forward and looks like a good middle six C) and b) the first rounder (they bet they make the playoffs and do well enough that it's not top 15). Not sure I love those bets. From Montreal's perspective, unless they get a miraculously good outcome with the 1st rounder, either decision is a bad outcome. But they just went to the SCF, so they have a bit of a honeymoon period here if they let him walk and fall out of the playoffs this season (not that I think Kotkaniemi is what's keeping them in the playoffs - just that Bergevin & co. have some breathing room for a poor season / moves that would ordinarily piss off the fans).

[Scooter]

Originally Posted by Mightyfire89

This is ALL Tom Dundon IMO. A lot of these ruthless businessmen will do petty things like this to make a point, even if they lose money in the process and even if it doesn’t make sense to anyone else.

The Habs should take the picks for sure.

Dundon is another a------ owner like his pal Jerry Jones who will be hands on in every mgt. decision made by his puppet GM Waddell.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

The thing is he's kind of Bennett-ish. Underwhelms in the regular season and looks like he's a career bottom 6 guy, but then in the playoffs he's suddenly a different player. Florida seems to like how that's worked out with Sam.

Sorta. Jesperi's regular season PPG is .36 and his playoff PPG is .41. So his improved performance is not huge. And Florida managed to get Sam under contract with, what I think is, manageable risk. This contract seems to entirely hinge on the belief that Montreal has been holding Jesperi back. Which if true - will be smart. But I always felt he was a guy that tracked more to a middle 6 centre, and was elevated in the draft because a team really liked him and really wanted to draft a centre.

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I'm on the fence overall. Obviously if the Habs match you're no better or worse off, but if they don't, this is a gamble on a) fit for Kotkaniemi (they bet he takes a step forward and looks like a good middle six C) and b) the first rounder (they bet they make the playoffs and do well enough that it's not top 15). Not sure I love those bets. From Montreal's perspective, unless they get a miraculously good outcome with the 1st rounder, either decision is a bad outcome. But they just went to the SCF, so they have a bit of a honeymoon period here if they let him walk and fall out of the playoffs this season (not that I think Kotkaniemi is what's keeping them in the playoffs - just that Bergevin & co. have some breathing room for a poor season / moves that would ordinarily piss off the fans).

I think the Canes are a good enough squad so the pick will be middle to late, but as we know all too well - it is uncomfortable being in position where you have no protection against that first.

As a trade a midd to late 1st + 3rd isn't bad. It's the contract going forward that I think isn't great. But let's say they sign a long-term deal for 5*5.5 - I suppose for a middle 6 centre that is probably about right.

[GioforPM]

The evaluation fo this deal all comes down to whatever handshake agreement they may have for the next contract. Say it’s 4 or 5 years. JK is thinking about how many total dollars he’s going to make over 5-6 years. Carolina is thinking they can afford a stupid AAV this year but will benefit from a value AAV over the next 4-5.

[djsFlames]

Habs can suck it, so I'm all for this

[SportsJunky]

2022 Draft is in Montreal so an extra 1st and 3rd might be nice for the fans.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Sooooooooooo... what would you do if someone offer-sheeted Mangiapane next year for $6.1M. Would you match?

I think it’s unlikely Mang would sign as he seems happy here, but for the sake of discussion, let’s say it was a middle of the pack team so the picks could be decent. Mang also has Arb rights next year FWIW.

Depending on how this year goes...I would pre-empt this with a 5y x 4-5M offer. 20-25M guaranteed is way better than a one time windfall of 6. By then you also know what you have in Mangiapane...so it's easier to either make the lo get term offer or walk away.

[dustygoon]

Makes sense on surface to take the picks.

But…..KK is still young and Eric Tulsky might see something that others haven’t noticed to date.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

2022 Draft is in Montreal so an extra 1st and 3rd might be nice for the fans.

I'd imagine the Habs would immediately put these picks in play for a centre. Nothing burns a hole in a GM's pockets more than "extra" draft picks

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

I'd imagine the Habs would immediately put these picks in play for a centre. Nothing burns a hole in a GM's pockets more than "extra" draft picks

Friedman speculated exactly this.

[Macho0978]

If Montreal does not match Carolina is over the cap with a 23 man roster. They have 2 2 way contracts in Lorentz and Necas. 0 chance Necas starts the year in the AHL.

Kotkaniemi probably was looking at a 2 year deal in around $3mil. He just got $6.1 mil? It hurts montreal because they are losing an asset that they probably could have kept at a more reasonable deal but they are still losing him for a 1st and 3rd. A non-lottery protected 1st as well. It's an ok trade even if he signed for $3 mil or was still unsigned.

Carolina is paying a 1st and a 3rd for a grossly over paid player. Some people on CP were claiming Marner was a negative value contract. I just don't see how anyone can argue this is a very bad contract and Montreal should just take the 1st and 3rd and run with it. Force Carolina to figure out there cap in less than 2 months when there are very few teams with cap space and a ton of RFA's still unsigned and more than likely going to take up the most of the remaining cap space left.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

I'd imagine the Habs would immediately put these picks in play for a centre. Nothing burns a hole in a GM's pockets more than "extra" draft picks

Sean Monahan? Cmon Brad!

[Matt Reeeeead]

Nm

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[Stockton Heat Prez]

I think it’s an age curve play… his production for an 18-20 year old relative to ice time hasn’t been bad at all. I think his possession metrics haven’t been far off for a 18-20 year old still adding size and developing his skating (which needs work)…. He probably would have benefited from more time in Finland or AHL, and may have been stunted developmentally for a bit with the aggressive advancement… they didn’t seem to have a clear plan for him.

Having a chance to sign a player like that, ready to jump into his prime years at a long term deal with AAV presumably around $4-5m is a unique opportunity for a price of a likely late 1st and 3rd rounder. That first rounder is going to take 3-6 years to develop into an effective NHLer, and they get to try and skip that development time investing in a 21 year old guy on the cusp of breaking out now. They obviously felt the way the offseason went they could overpay him for 1 year to get the mechanics of an offer sheet done while temporarily fitting him into their cap structure.

What Dundon is doing is interesting and playing age curves, sample sizes, and noise in goalie performance. He elected to avoid the long term Hamilton decline phase contract…

I think building a core through talented forwards at peak ages is a sound idea… he’s going all in on it in a way I’ve never seen before (while electing to shop in the bargain aisle at D and G)…. It’s going to be interesting to see how it pans out… at face value the concept is logical.


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