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Old 12-16-2019, 03:39 PM   #161
topfiverecords
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Originally Posted by TheScorpion View Post
OK, but since 2016, Taylor Hall's high-danger Corsi% of 57.84% ranks 11th in the entire NHL, ahead of all of the following players:

- Connor McDavid
- Nathan MacKinnon
- Sidney Crosby
- Alexander Ovechkin
- Mark Stone
- Johnny Gaudreau
- Leon Draisaitl
- Tyler Seguin
- Evgeni Malkin
- Patrick Kane
- Nikita Kucherov
- Steven Stamkos
- Evgeny Kuznetsov
- Ryan O'Reilly
- Sebastian Aho
- Matthew Tkachuk
- Artemi Panarin
- Mathew Barzal
- Mark Giordano
- Patrice Bergeron
- David Pastrnak
- Jack Eichel
- Elias Pettersson
- Mark Scheifele
- Auston Matthews
- Mitch Marner
- John Tavares

And basically everybody else worth mentioning in hockey.
Can you give us a thorough analysis on why each of those players are ranked where they are by all of the many thousands of factors that come into play? Oh and if you can have that in by the end of the day that would be greaaaat. Thanks!

Oh, and don’t forget the cover on the report. Mmmmmk, thanks!
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:40 PM   #162
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Can you give us a thorough analysis on why each of those players are ranked where they are by all of the many thousands of factors that come into play? Oh and if you can have that in by the end of the day that would be greaaaat. Thanks!

Oh, and don’t forget the cover on the report. Mmmmmk, thanks!
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:40 PM   #163
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Early in the thread people seemed to think this was a good price for Hall - was that just because the full details weren't out yet? Because if I'm understanding right, it's effectively two firsts (Merkley and a lottery-protected 2020 first) plus another conditional first that will happen if they win a playoff round and Hall re-signs. Plus they're getting two prospects in exchange for one of theirs, so call it net one prospect.

Two firsts and a prospect is quite a lot to pay for a guy who might walk at the end of the season. Three firsts and a prospect is quite a lot to pay for a guy who you could have signed for free in the offseason (although admittedly there is an advantage to being able to negotiate with him before the summer). Seems like a pretty good haul for NJD to me.
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OK, but since 2016, Taylor Hall's high-danger Corsi% of 57.84% ranks 11th in the entire NHL
Not that I'm questioning your point here, necessarily, but that is a pretty specific stat. It wouldn't be totally shocking if Hall was elite at generating home plate shots while also giving up more than average in his own end. When you're trying to make a case like this one it'd be helpful if you could add in some other stuff (CF%, RelTM, CA/60 would be a good start).
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:41 PM   #164
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Would have been fine pay a hefty price for a signed Hall. Glad Tre held firm on not paying a 1st+prospects for a rental. Still think the Flames have a decent shot at signing him in the off-season, although that's one less kick at the can with the current core/contracts.
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:41 PM   #165
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That list almost makes me question whether that’s even a useful stat at all. Half Minnesota Wild players?
As soon as someone mentions the word corsi in their argument I tend to tune them out immediately. It's just numerical masturbation
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:42 PM   #166
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2 weeks ago this forum was ready to trade everybody and tank for the 1st pick. I think we need a little patience.
I didn't think they were good enough in the PO last year to come out of the west. I didn't think they were good enough to start the year. After the current streak I still don't. I'm not saying they are a bad team but they definitely have holes and cant sit on their hands into the playoffs this year again while everyone else loads up.
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:46 PM   #167
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I didn't think they were good enough in the PO last year to come out of the west. I didn't think they were good enough to start the year. After the current streak I still don't. I'm not saying they are a bad team but they definitely have holes and cant sit on their hands into the playoffs this year again while everyone else loads up.

Might as well, because the answers to those holes are not available. Throwing away cap space and assets just to do something is a bad plan, and is exactly what got us into trouble in the first place.
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:48 PM   #168
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Not that I'm questioning your point here, necessarily, but that is a pretty specific stat. It wouldn't be totally shocking if Hall was elite at generating home plate shots while also giving up more than average in his own end. When you're trying to make a case like this one it'd be helpful if you could add in some other stuff (CF%, RelTM, CA/60 would be a good start).
IMO HDCF% is the most important individual stat, but ok. That's easy enough.

In the same period of time, with the same sample (min 1000 minutes, or roughly 100 GP), Hall ranks:

- 143rd in CF%, by far the highest of any NJ player (excluding Jon Merrill and Pat Maroon, the stats of whom are both significantly affected by their more substantial time spent with other, much better teams in Vegas and St Louis)

- 42nd in xGF%, again by far the highest of any NJ player

I'd pull up CA/60 but Corsica is currently down for me and I can't seem to locate it on Natural Stat Trick

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As soon as someone mentions the word corsi in their argument I tend to tune them out immediately. It's just numerical masturbation
What? That doesn't make any sense. Would it be better if I just called it "shot attempts" instead? It's just a name. It's like saying "Obamacare" makes you mad, but you like the Affordable Care Act.
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:49 PM   #169
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I didn't think they were good enough in the PO last year to come out of the west. I didn't think they were good enough to start the year. After the current streak I still don't. I'm not saying they are a bad team but they definitely have holes and cant sit on their hands into the playoffs this year again while everyone else loads up.

This isn't a team that can be fixed through midseason trades, especially ones that sacrifice first round draft picks
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:53 PM   #170
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:55 PM   #171
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The problem here was not being able to convince him to sign before the trade and going at this as a rental is so risky. The Flames were not going to do that simple as that. They wouldn’t spend the price on Stone who was literally the perfect fit for this team last year and this was when they were comfortably in 1st place.

This year the Flames are on the bubble and while a top 6 forward is still very much a need they are not in a secure spot and Hall doesn’t fit nearly as well as Stone did so more risk for a worse fit.

Maybe Hall considers the Flames in the summer but having said that Treliving does his worst work when signing high priced UFA’s. I have no interest in rentals with our lack of assets so hopefully Treliving can add some long term help but please stay away from Krieder, Pageau etc.
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:57 PM   #172
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Are you sure you aren't letting some previously established anti-Oilers opinion colour your opinion? Or are you perhaps thinking that Hall has been on bad teams, so he must be bad?

There's a pretty overwhelming amount of data out there showing just how elite Hall is. This isn't a Phil Kessel, one-dimensional style of player.
Watched him play since Junior. He is the king of changing when the other team is about to score so he doesn't get a minus. His defence is non-existent.
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:57 PM   #173
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Early in the thread people seemed to think this was a good price for Hall - was that just because the full details weren't out yet? Because if I'm understanding right, it's effectively two firsts (Merkley and a lottery-protected 2020 first) plus another conditional first that will happen if they win a playoff round and Hall re-signs. Plus they're getting two prospects in exchange for one of theirs, so call it net one prospect.

Two firsts and a prospect is quite a lot to pay for a guy who might walk at the end of the season. Three firsts and a prospect is quite a lot to pay for a guy who you could have signed for free in the offseason (although admittedly there is an advantage to being able to negotiate with him before the summer). Seems like a pretty good haul for NJD to me.

Not that I'm questioning your point here, necessarily, but that is a pretty specific stat. It wouldn't be totally shocking if Hall was elite at generating home plate shots while also giving up more than average in his own end. When you're trying to make a case like this one it'd be helpful if you could add in some other stuff (CF%, RelTM, CA/60 would be a good start).


I think you need to evaluate the quality of prospects they received to get a better analysis.

I think Merkley has significantly less value than a first round pick. His promising career has been derailed by injuries and now he will be turning 23 still stuck in the AHL.
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Old 12-16-2019, 03:59 PM   #174
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Old 12-16-2019, 04:02 PM   #175
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Treliving isn't into rentals.

I'm glad he isn't. Going to trade valuable young assets that could stay in a system for 5+ years providing value, then you need to get multiple years out of the player you are getting back.
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Old 12-16-2019, 04:04 PM   #176
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Watched him play since Junior. He is the king of changing when the other team is about to score so he doesn't get a minus. His defence is non-existent.


Taylor Hall- the player known for ripping to the bench as quick as he can while the other team has an odd man rush to avoid getting a minus. A stat that nobody takes seriously.

Not known for generating offense at an elite level and winning the Hart trophy as MVP of the NHL.

Even if he’s defense was non-existent (which it’s not) he still makes up for it by how much he generates offensively.

When you were watching him in junior did you see him win two memorial cups and two mvps too?
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Old 12-16-2019, 04:06 PM   #177
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Typical Treliving MO. No pending UFAs via trade, he wants players with term. So I would scratch guys like Toffoli unless they negotiate an extension prior to the trade.

I still think tree goes after RFA aged players more than anything.
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Old 12-16-2019, 04:08 PM   #178
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Watching Hall here in Calgary last month and he didn't 'rip' to the bench to change, he took his sweet ass time haha.
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Old 12-16-2019, 04:09 PM   #179
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Typical Treliving MO. No pending UFAs via trade, he wants players with term. So I would scratch guys like Toffoli unless they negotiate an extension prior to the trade.

I still think tree goes after RFA aged players more than anything.
In that case:

Josh Anderson. 25 going on 26. Having a miserable season with just 1 goal and 4 points through 26 games (while shooting just 1.6%), but has been a dominant presence in the past. Big RHS right-winger. Pending RFA.

There's a guy who seems to check all of his boxes.
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Old 12-16-2019, 04:11 PM   #180
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Devils did okay. Potentially 2 first rounders, and at least one decent/interesting looking prospect. At worst it is a 1st and a 3rd plus the 3 prospects. It was mentioned on the radio. For Larsson, the Devils got a couple years of Hall, a couple picks (at least 1 first) and 3 prospects. E=NG
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