Matthew Tkachuk’s Next Contract

[transplant99]

Is Marchand the best comparable?

Similar players and all that.

If so maybe they can ink MT to a longer deal at 6.5 or so.

Marchand signed 2 years ago at 8 X 6.125 and proceeded to put up back to back 85 pt. seasons....and he was going to be UFA the summer after he did sign.

Hmmmm.

[Imported_Aussie]

Who are Tkachuk's comparables for a contract?
Guys who had 2 good NHL years then PPG in final ELC year
Pastrnak? (40/6 = 6.667)
Barkov? (35.4/6 = 5.9) - also missed games due to injury (more than Tkachuk though)

Monahan had more in years 1-2, but hasn't hit PPG until now

I think if the team is sticking to the Gio Cap then even a 6 year deal might be hard to pull off. A bridge only happens in a long holdout, so to me it is looking like:

5 years = low-mid 6s
6 years = high 6s
7 years = low 7s
8 years = mid 7s to 8

a 5 year deal buys one UFA year, expires same time as Backlund and Lindholm, 1 year after Monahan, 2 years after Gaudreau - so that fits the team's window, but risks a big salary jump after having to pay 2 top forwards, and potentially locking down another.

Longer than 5 years means that Tkachuk is essentially positioned as the next leader on the team, but limits cap during this window to try to open a longer window with whomever is retained up front, young D coming through, etc. spend 1-1.5M now to potentially save it later.

I would not be surprised to see a 5 year deal in the mid 6s that keeps the team together with cap flexibility short term, leading to a potential retool in 3-4 years if this group isn't contending

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I'm guessing Tkachuck's initial ask is Jack Eichel's contract. I think the deal gets done in around 9/year. Especially if he keeps this scoring pace.

Laine might use Eichel as a comparison, but Tkachuk isn't.

Eichel had the pedigree of going 2nd in the draft (ONLY because McDavid), and put up 177 points in 209 games in his 1st 3 years (.847 PPG)

So far, Tkachuk has 122 in 165 (.739 PPG) and was drafted 6th. He had 97 points in 144 games in his 1st 2 years (.674). He would have to go north of 80 points this year to even think of using Eichel as a comp.

And yes, where they were drafted matters, when we're talking 2nd overall.

To me, Pasternak is the best comp for Tkachuk.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Have you not paid any attention to the contracts that have been given to players recently? Eichel hasn't put up more than 70 (granted, injuries) and he makes 10 mil, Draisaitl best season was 77 and he got 8.5, Nylander's best season is 61 and he's looking at a 7-8m contract. Tkachuk is getting paid. If he puts up 80 this season, on an 8 year deal he'll be looking at 8m+ and he deserves it.

All natural centres, which has historically been worth an extra 1M AAV. And Nylander's ask is irrelevant, considering that many teams could have signed him for that if they thought he was worth it (and the compensatory picks). As for Draisaitl, allow me to remind you that E=NG, and Chia will be the next GM to be fired.

[BurningYears]

Whatever it is, I'm just happy it's going to be with us.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Is anyone concerned that, playing on the second line, Tkachuk avoids playing against the oppositions best defenders and will his production drop once he gets more attention? Most of his "comparables" are getting top line duties.

TIA for understanding that it's just a question and that i'm not bashing Tkachuk as he's still a kid and will only get better/stronger.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Good luck with that.

Teams that win a few SC's don't trade the players who got them those SC's before their contracts are up and they are still in their 20's.

Picture that.

Calgary win's two SC's on the backs of Monny, Johnny, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Hanifin etc, so in about 3-4 years from know they are all traded. Now, I'm not going to argue that that might not be the best strategy to win future SC's (because it likely is), but businesses looking to make a profit don't do that. Fans would revolt. Look at how Calgary hung on for so long before rebuilding, and that's without any SC's.

Plus the odds of any team actually winning the SC's is long, much less 2. Teams tend to hang onto any chance that they might still be able to win before blowing it up. You're expecting them to blow it up when they are at the very top of the cycle.

You would like to hang on to them but... Chicago 2010 2013 2015 ...

Gone from 2010 age in 2010 SC in () Versteeg (23) Brouwer (24) Ladd (23) Bufuglien (24) Bolland (23) Hjarlmsson (22)

Missing from 2013 Saad (19) Leddy (21) Shaw (21) Frolik (24) Hjarlmsson (25) Bolland (26)

2015 Saad (21) shaw (23) Terevanien (19)


You have to make a choice on who drives the bus (Hossa, Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook) and then go with a cheaper replacement for the supporting cast

What a different team from 2010 to 2015

[The Cobra]

Tkachuk may think that he's just hitting his stride (who would argue?), and want to go short term to improve his bargaining position in the future.

What other comparable players have signed for is likely not relevant unless Tkachuk actually wants a long term deal.

He may well be satisfied going year to year until it reaches point where he has much of the leverage.

Just because most players want the long term security quickly doesn't mean he does.

He may be saying "I'll only go long term if you pay me what I think I'll be worth in the future". And is prepared to wait and prove it.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

You would like to hang on to them but... Chicago 2010 2013 2015 ...

Gone from 2010 age in 2010 SC in () Versteeg (23) Brouwer (24) Ladd (23) Bufuglien (24) Bolland (23) Hjarlmsson (22)

Missing from 2013 Saad (19) Leddy (21) Shaw (21) Frolik (24) Hjarlmsson (25) Bolland (26)

2015 Saad (21) shaw (23) Terevanien (19)


You have to make a choice on who drives the bus (Hossa, Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook) and then go with a cheaper replacement for the supporting cast

What a different team from 2010 to 2015

Huge difference. Chicago kept and paid all of their core players. They only changed the supporting players.

You talked about letting Johnny, Monny, Tkachuk, Lindholm Hanifin go before their contracts expired.

Chicago got rid of the Stone, Neal, Frolik types.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Laine might use Eichel as a comparison, but Tkachuk isn't.

Eichel had the pedigree of going 2nd in the draft (ONLY because McDavid), and put up 177 points in 209 games in his 1st 3 years (.847 PPG)

So far, Tkachuk has 122 in 165 (.739 PPG) and was drafted 6th. He had 97 points in 144 games in his 1st 2 years (.674). He would have to go north of 80 points this year to even think of using Eichel as a comp.

And yes, where they were drafted matters, when we're talking 2nd overall.

To me, Pasternak is the best comp for Tkachuk.

Numbers look comparable. Taking into account the inflation of the cap, that would be equivalent to 6 years X 7M AAV next year. If the Flames want max term, it will likely take an 8M AAV, if that is the most relevant comparable. Or, if Treliving can pull another great contract out of his hat, maybe 7.5M, which is what I'm hoping for.

[Bourque's Twin]

I bet he gets the same contract as Gaudreau.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

I bet he gets the same contract as Gaudreau.

Not close. Remember that Gaudreau had no ability to sign an offer sheet, and so he had no leverage. Tkachuk offers more things than Gaudreau did at the same time in their career, the cap is quite a bit higher, Tkachuk is can younger than Johnny was, AND Draisaitl ruined any chance of a number staying with a 6 or probably even 7.

He's not getting Johnny's contract

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Is anyone concerned that, playing on the second line, Tkachuk avoids playing against the oppositions best defenders and will his production drop once he gets more attention? Most of his "comparables" are getting top line duties.

TIA for understanding that it's just a question and that i'm not bashing Tkachuk as he's still a kid and will only get better/stronger.

I get your point about the 2nd line, except in this case, his line is playing against the other team's top line most nights. And is focused on defense. So I don't think we should conclude that his production is artificially high.

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

Who are Tkachuk's comparables for a contract?
Guys who had 2 good NHL years then PPG in final ELC year
Pastrnak? (40/6 = 6.667)
Barkov? (35.4/6 = 5.9) - also missed games due to injury (more than Tkachuk though)

Monahan had more in years 1-2, but hasn't hit PPG until now

The other thing to look at is the other RFAs coming up this year - there are a ton of top-tier players in this year's batch: Matthews, Laine, Marner, Aho, Rantanen, Boeser, Connor, Point - whoever signs first could set the stage for the others to a certain extent (much like Scheifele/Monahan/MacKinnon all signed for low to mid-$6M AAV contracts in the same summer).

I think if the team is sticking to the Gio Cap then even a 6 year deal might be hard to pull off.

A bridge only happens in a long holdout, so to me it is looking like:

5 years = low-mid 6s
6 years = high 6s
7 years = low 7s
8 years = mid 7s to 8

a 5 year deal buys one UFA year, expires same time as Backlund and Lindholm, 1 year after Monahan, 2 years after Gaudreau - so that fits the team's window, but risks a big salary jump after having to pay 2 top forwards, and potentially locking down another.

Longer than 5 years means that Tkachuk is essentially positioned as the next leader on the team, but limits cap during this window to try to open a longer window with whomever is retained up front, young D coming through, etc. spend 1-1.5M now to potentially save it later.

I would not be surprised to see a 5 year deal in the mid 6s that keeps the team together with cap flexibility short term, leading to a potential retool in 3-4 years if this group isn't contending

There is precedence where Tkachuk's salary could remain lower than Gio's for as long as Gio's current contract lasts (3 years), then exceed it for the rest. This happened when Brodie re-signed his most recent contract and Gio was still making <$4M, so Brodie's first year of the salary was $3.9M and the rest of the years $4.8M. So I think a plausible contract could be:
$6.75M
$6.75M
$6.75M
$8M
$8M
$8M
$8M
$8M

8 years, total $60.25M for $7.53M AAV. I think the $8M per year for post-Gio years could go +/- $0.5M based on how the rest of this year goes for Tkachuk.

I think this is pretty in line with the ranges you have - I agree that there is definitely the possibility that both Tkachuk and the Flames might want to go shorter though.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Laine might use Eichel as a comparison, but Tkachuk isn't.

Eichel had the pedigree of going 2nd in the draft (ONLY because McDavid), and put up 177 points in 209 games in his 1st 3 years (.847 PPG)

So far, Tkachuk has 122 in 165 (.739 PPG) and was drafted 6th. He had 97 points in 144 games in his 1st 2 years (.674). He would have to go north of 80 points this year to even think of using Eichel as a comp.

And yes, where they were drafted matters, when we're talking 2nd overall.

To me, Pasternak is the best comp for Tkachuk.

It's fairly well agreed that Pastrnak signed a terrible deal (for himself). What I do know is that I have a hard time putting Tkachuk behind anyone on this team not named Giordano or Guadreau. After a full year of a much more involved offensive role this season he is easily going to be ahead of both of these guys in terms of overall value to the team and quite possibly offensive output. As an organization there's no way you are expecting to sign this guy to a long term $6.5-6.75M AAV deal after a full 2018/2019 season at or even slightly below the level he's been playing at for the last 50 or so games.

For me the comparables start (albeit with much older players) on the lower end with guys like Ryan O'Reilly (different position but from an overall value to the team standpoint) and top out with a player like Jamie Benn. Both players had somewhat similar scoring outputs and useage in their first few seasons. A 7 or 8 year deal within the $7.5 - 8.5 AAV would be pretty fair for both sides given the state of the cap and where it looks like Tkachuk's game is headed.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by delayedreflex

The other thing to look at is the other RFAs coming up this year - there are a ton of top-tier players in this year's batch: Matthews, Laine, Marner, Aho, Rantanen, Boeser, Connor, Point - whoever signs first could set the stage for the others to a certain extent (much like Scheifele/Monahan/MacKinnon all signed for low to mid-$6M AAV contracts in the same summer)...

So, how would you guys rank this group? That could be a good starting point to determining Tkachuk's value.

I might go ...
· Matthews
· Laine
· Aho
· Point
· Tkachuk
· Marner
· Rantanan
· Connor
· Boeser

I think Matthews and Laine are in a class on their own, and then have #3–7 bunched together—but Aho is firmly atop that group, with Connor and Boeser in the third tier.

... this is hard.

[GioforPM]

There's not a whole lot to go one for comparables - RFAs who signed in the last couple years who are as good as Matt but are part of a cast of good players. You have McDavid (not a comparable), Eichel/Draisaitl/RyJo/Kuznetzov (centres - or supposed to be - who are arguably overpaid and Eichel is supposed to be a franchise guy like McDavid), Tarasenko (overpaid, if you ask me), Stone (one year), and then you get to Gaudreau/Pasternak/Monahan/Mackinnon/Scheifele/Larkin/Forsberg level compensation.

All of these guys are at or near a PPG.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

unless he throws up 80+ points this year, he's not getting more than 6 mil per. Why would we pay him that type of money?

You don’t seem to have a very good grasp on market value for free agents.

[Kybb79]

The Flames future captain will get 7.75× 8.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Kybb79

The Flames future captain will get 7.75× 8.

I still think it will be Monahan.