Matthew Tkachuk’s Next Contract

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

Well, I guess we will have to wait and see. I disagree but i can't only hope we sign him for 6.75, which I think is absolutely a fair guess.

Many people on this thread thought Johnny was going to get 8-9 million per season as well.

And even if he did get that number he would of been signing for 8 years and not 6. With the way he’s scored since I think wed of been better off with that extra 2 years for an extra 2 million per year because if he keeps this up his next AAV is double digits and it’s not going to be with us.

[ricardodw]

Tkachuk is looking at 4 years of cost controlled RFA.

The highest bridge deals to date have been Trouba 2X3 then 5.5 and he still is RFA this spring. so 3 years at 11.5 and one more year that he plays and comes out as a UFA

Nurse 3.2 x 2
Hurbedeau 3.25 x 2
Barrie 2.5 x 2
Morrissey 3.15 x 2

So when you are talking 8x8 you really are saying cost controlled 4 x 3 with 52 over the last 5 years 10.4 x 5.

6x8 is 4 x 3 followed 36 over 5 --- 7.2 x 5

Tavares got 11 x 7 as a UFA.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I suspect that it'll only be 6 years to help keep the cap down. I also think we'll see a trend to shorter contracts overall.

On a side note, does anyone else look at Luke and Hans and see Johnny and Mony?

Yes, and the similarities between C-3PO and Lindholm are uncanny!

[David Struch]

The cap is supposedly going up to the neighbourhood of 82 million next season, but I've yet to hear an 8 year projection of the salary cap...

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

as a justification to call my premise completely flawed? Uh, ok)


I’m not saying the player has no leverage at all. Just much less.

I'm guessing we were confused by your statement that "the team has all the leverage". There doesn't seem to be much left over from all?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Ah, whatever. I rounded up

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

There is no chance Tkachuk gets more than 6.75 million per year. That being said, he could get 8x6.75 which I think he would take.

He is not a good enough skater to get more than that. I love the guy, and he may be this teams next captain, but he isn't getting more money than the top guys. Tree could have paid Mony and Johnny both 8, but he was smart and was able to get it done for less.

Calgary has an "internal cap" of 6.75 mill, and Tkachuk isn't going to to get more. Lets hope as Flames fans he doesn't. The guy is a huge part of the team, but is not worth more than 6.75 per.

If Calgary keeps to an internal cap of $6.75m they will soon be losing players.

There is no such cap.

And the only reason that no one has gotten more than that, is that the contract length was kept short enough to ensure that that number would not be exceeded.

Treliving can likely do the same thing with Tkachuk, but it won't be more than 6 years.

Calgary is then left in the unenviable position if needing to deal with a player still in his prime wanting an 8 year deal at huge money when it's pretty much known that the last years of that contract will stink.

Better to pay more for an 8 year deal and then deal with the player when he's starting to decline. At that time, the decision to perhaps let him go would be much easier to make when you aren't looking at a few prime years left.

If you want a player to give up the right to become a UFA at a time that is very beneficial to him, the cost is high.

Players like Johnny, Money and Lindholm signed "reasonable" deals because they will become UFA's at relatively young ages. They essentially got lifetime security without giving up that much UFA rights. Retaining the right to become an UFA at an age when they will have all of the leverage and getting lifetime financial security meant that Calgary would get a reasonable deal.

[Enoch Root]

I agree that there is no official internal team cap.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they look for ways to keep his number similar nonetheless, i.e. go shorter term.

I could see them doing 5 years to keep the number in the 6s. It only buys 1 year of UFA, but it gets him done at a very manageable cap for the same window as all the other key guys.

Then when all these contracts start coming due in 4 or 5 years, you decide which guys you're going to keep and which ones you can't

[puckedoff]

These millenials like the jersey number thing, so I'd guess he comes in at

1.9MM x 1.9 years

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If Calgary keeps to an internal cap of $6.75m they will soon be losing players.

There is no such cap.

And the only reason that no one has gotten more than that, is that the contract length was kept short enough to ensure that that number would not be exceeded.

Treliving can likely do the same thing with Tkachuk, but it won't be more than 6 years.

Calgary is then left in the unenviable position if needing to deal with a player still in his prime wanting an 8 year deal at huge money when it's pretty much known that the last years of that contract will stink.

Better to pay more for an 8 year deal and then deal with the player when he's starting to decline. At that time, the decision to perhaps let him go would be much easier to make when you aren't looking at a few prime years left.

If you want a player to give up the right to become a UFA at a time that is very beneficial to him, the cost is high.

Players like Johnny, Money and Lindholm signed "reasonable" deals because they will become UFA's at relatively young ages. They essentially got lifetime security without giving up that much UFA rights. Retaining the right to become an UFA at an age when they will have all of the leverage and getting lifetime financial security meant that Calgary would get a reasonable deal.

Calgary is then left with a situation where their 4-5 elite players on the shorter cheaper 6 year deal have driven 2-3 deep playoff runs and a SC or 2.

Then before they become UFAs , when their perceived value is enormous they are traded for the next group of 20 year olds.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I agree that there is no official internal team cap.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they look for ways to keep his number similar nonetheless, i.e. go shorter term.

I could see them doing 5 years to keep the number in the 6s. It only buys 1 year of UFA, but it gets him done at a very manageable cap for the same window as all the other key guys.

Then when all these contracts start coming due in 4 or 5 years, you decide which guys you're going to keep and which ones you can't

This would be a huge mistake IMO. The way the league economics have gone the last decade or so, he's only going to get increasingly more difficult to re-sign a young star when you kick the can down the road like that. I'd rather the Flames lock him up as long as possible as he is looking like one of the exceptional players for his draft and will only get better. I can't see any way he signs a Gio cap deal, and if he does, Treliving should get the key to the city.

A max term deal will give the Flames their future captain for the entirety of his prime years. An 8x8 or 9x8 deal would not cripple this team at all given $12-13M will come off the books over the next 1-2 years as Smith, Frolik and Stone are either moved out or complete their deals. Other financial issues will probably be covered by the annual cap increase as all other key players are signed long term.

[Duffalufagus]

unless he throws up 80+ points this year, he's not getting more than 6 mil per. Why would we pay him that type of money?

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

unless he throws up 80+ points this year, he's not getting more than 6 mil per. Why would we pay him that type of money?

Green text???

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

unless he throws up 80+ points this year, he's not getting more than 6 mil per. Why would we pay him that type of money?

Have you not paid any attention to the contracts that have been given to players recently? Eichel hasn't put up more than 70 (granted, injuries) and he makes 10 mil, Draisaitl best season was 77 and he got 8.5, Nylander's best season is 61 and he's looking at a 7-8m contract. Tkachuk is getting paid. If he puts up 80 this season, on an 8 year deal he'll be looking at 8m+ and he deserves it.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Calgary is then left with a situation where their 4-5 elite players on the shorter cheaper 6 year deal have driven 2-3 deep playoff runs and a SC or 2.

Then before they become UFAs , when their perceived value is enormous they are traded for the next group of 20 year olds.

Good luck with that.

Teams that win a few SC's don't trade the players who got them those SC's before their contracts are up and they are still in their 20's.

Picture that.

Calgary win's two SC's on the backs of Monny, Johnny, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Hanifin etc, so in about 3-4 years from know they are all traded. Now, I'm not going to argue that that might not be the best strategy to win future SC's (because it likely is), but businesses looking to make a profit don't do that. Fans would revolt. Look at how Calgary hung on for so long before rebuilding, and that's without any SC's.

Plus the odds of any team actually winning the SC's is long, much less 2. Teams tend to hang onto any chance that they might still be able to win before blowing it up. You're expecting them to blow it up when they are at the very top of the cycle.

[Fuzz]

At a pace of 1.19 ppg reaching 80+ is a real possibility. That's a 98 point total at that rate.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Have you not paid any attention to the contracts that have been given to players recently? Eichel hasn't put up more than 70 (granted, injuries) and he makes 10 mil, Draisaitl best season was 77 and he got 8.5, Nylander's best season is 61 and he's looking at a 7-8m contract. Tkachuk is getting paid. If he puts up 80 this season, on an 8 year deal he'll be looking at 8m+ and he deserves it.

Until Nylander is signed, he's a pretty lousy comparable to what RFA'sa should make. Aditionally, anything Oiler related isn't a good comparable, because... well because they are idiots.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Until Nylander is signed, he's a pretty lousy comparable to what RFA'sa should make. Aditionally, anything Oiler related isn't a good comparable, because... well because they are idiots.

The Nylander comparison is what most are projecting, so I would guess he falls in that range - it's what most people believe a young 60pt winger is worth on a long term deal. Edmonton, while moronic, have changed the market. I can guarantee the Draisaitl contract has been used successfully by agents as a benchmark for their clients.

[TOfan]

I'm guessing Tkachuck's initial ask is Jack Eichel's contract. I think the deal gets done in around 9/year. Especially if he keeps this scoring pace.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by VilleN

The Nylander comparison is what most are projecting, so I would guess he falls in that range - it's what most people believe a young 60pt winger is worth on a long term deal. Edmonton, while moronic, have changed the market. I can guarantee the Draisaitl contract has been used successfully by agents as a benchmark for their clients.

Yes, I agree about Nylander. When he signs, it will give a good comparable to Tkachuk.