2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I think Toronto has it a bit backwards. Teams like Kansas City, Tampa Bay in the past and Chicago Cubs in the future ride their youngsters into the playoffs and deal with the consequences once those contracts expire. Yes Kansas City will need to blow it up at some point but they've already got two World Series appearances. San Francisco used Sandoval as much as they could and then let him go once he was useless. They are reloading for next year.

Toronto was doing the opposite. Those teams above would never trade a cheap prospect like Hechavarria. Toronto trades him for Reyes which is 20 million more and has a bad wheel. And in that trade they add Buerhle and Johnson, another 30 million. Then they add Dickey that's 15 more million. That still only got them to .500 so of course Rogers is not happy.

Fire of the Phoenix: no doom and gloom here. If Shipiro can get a good GM I think they'll be better off without AA but it'll take a year or two.

This is the exact thing I'm talking about. If they make smarter decisions, they don't need to have a 180m+ payroll. You can't have middling players making that kind of coin.

You are right, they did seem to go about it backwards to an extent. I wonder how much of that was at the direction of ownership though? Up to that point, AA did not seem like that kind of a GM at all. He seemed mostly risk averse while he steadily built up the farm to the point where it was top 3/5 in all of baseball... and then suddenly he made those two trades.

The team clearly wasn't ready yet, but he suddenly started making win now moves anyway. I was so very confused, and still am to be honest. I get that we had two of the best hitters in baseball who were in their 30's but the moves were still completely out of left field for where the team was at overall. Especially considering the guys we got. Dickey was totally an asset management dream from the Mets POV and the Marlins trade was mostly for mediocre and overpaid players. It seemed completely against AA's MO. Still, overall AA's body of work was good outside those two trades, hopefully Shapiro isn't a step down.

[Otto-matic]

Jamie Campbell ‏@SNETCampbell 4m
Source: Tony LaCava named GM of #BlueJays.

[GirlySports]

I disagree. I think that was AA's MO. He builds the farm so that it's the top 5 of baseball but the reason for that is to trade those prospects. What's the point of developing 10 pitchers when there are only 3 young starting pitcher spots? And he choose Arencibia so d'Arnauld had nowhere to play.

A team has to be kids or veterans and he chose to be veterans.

[Hockey Fan #751]

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

Jamie Campbell ‏@SNETCampbell 4m
Source: Tony LaCava named GM of #BlueJays.

I heard just interim, but I would be perfectly fine with him as GM. I want as much of the previous regime to stay as possible because they will be able to build the farm system back up. I have no faith in Shapiro's ability to do that with "his guys".

[Otto-matic]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

I heard just interim, but I would be perfectly fine with him as GM. I want as much of the previous regime to stay as possible because they will be able to build the farm system back up. I have no faith in Shapiro's ability to do that with "his guys".

Confirmed

BREAKING: #BlueJays to name Tony LaCava interim general manager. http://ow.ly/U95dw

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I think Toronto has it a bit backwards. Teams like Kansas City, Tampa Bay in the past and Chicago Cubs in the future ride their youngsters into the playoffs and deal with the consequences once those contracts expire. Yes Kansas City will need to blow it up at some point but they've already got two World Series appearances. San Francisco used Sandoval as much as they could and then let him go once he was useless. They are reloading for next year.

Toronto was doing the opposite. Those teams above would never trade a cheap prospect like Hechavarria. Toronto trades him for Reyes which is 20 million more and has a bad wheel. And in that trade they add Buerhle and Johnson, another 30 million. Then they add Dickey that's 15 more million. That still only got them to .500 so of course Rogers is not happy.

Fire of the Phoenix: no doom and gloom here. If Shipiro can get a good GM I think they'll be better off without AA but it'll take a year or two.

The fact that we are sitting here comparing Toronto to teams like Kansas and Tampa Bay speaks volumes to what the problems are in Blue Jay land. These are two small market teams you are comparing the Jays to when the Jays play in the third largest market in MLB (without even consideration of the rest of Canada).

Toronto has the ability to spend like a big market team, but they don't because of their bull#### ownership structure. I don't like it, but I could live with that if they flat out said that's what they are going to do, and stuck to the model. The problem is that they don't. They don't spend enough to win, and they don't keep enough talent to build from within which has resulted in the years of mediocrity. Rogers does just enough to keep Jays fans' targets off their telecommunications business so they can continually suck every dollar of profit out of the MLB team. Even when they do increase the payroll a bit, it's a short term counter punch to battle the growing discontent of Jays fans. It's not a strategic baseball move at all (see the Dickey/Reyes trades from a few years ago).



With respect to Sandoval, San Francisco has one of the highest payrolls in baseball. They keep all their players that they value. The reason Sandoval isn't there any more is he's very obese and they were smart enough to realize you can't be signing a professional athlete in poor condition to long term 100M dollar. Not the money that stopped them, it was the term.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

I heard just interim, but I would be perfectly fine with him as GM. I want as much of the previous regime to stay as possible because they will be able to build the farm system back up. I have no faith in Shapiro's ability to do that with "his guys".

LaCava is one of Shapiro's guys. Worked for him in Cleveland.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I disagree. I think that was AA's MO. He builds the farm so that it's the top 5 of baseball but the reason for that is to trade those prospects. What's the point of developing 10 pitchers when there are only 3 young starting pitcher spots? And he choose Arencibia so d'Arnauld had nowhere to play.

A team has to be kids or veterans and he chose to be veterans.

Up until that point, it definitely wasn't his MO. Once he made those two trades, he changed the direction of the franchise, and they were officially in win now mode. Before that, he was all about setting up for the future. There's a reason everyone was shocked by those moves, they went against everything he had done up until that point.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Up until that point, it definitely wasn't his MO. Once he made those two trades, he changed the direction of the franchise, and they were officially in win now mode. Before that, he was all about setting up for the future. There's a reason everyone was shocked by those moves, they went against everything he had done up until that point.

When those deals were made, Jays fans were completely disgruntled and the most vocal they ever were about it. Those moves were made to combat that. They made no sense at the time.

[Finger Cookin]

I think it's hilarious that LaCava has been both Assistant GM and Assistant to the GM.

[ClubFlames]

Shapiro also confirmed that John Gibbons will return next year.

[Tyler]

"Hey Tony, do you want to get paid millions of dollars to be accountable to a boss? You know, like almost every other job imaginable?"

"Yes, I would be quite fine with that Mark."

[troutman]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

the Jays play in the third largest market in MLB (without even consideration of the rest of Canada).

4th I think, after NY, LA and CHI:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._North_America

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by troutman

4th I think, after NY, LA and CHI:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._North_America

GTA surpassed Chicago in size about a year ago ( or so the bus tour I took on Toronto this summerwould have me believe.)

[TheAlpineOracle]

A quick google search shows me that tour was full of crap. Still though, Toronto is the 4th largest market in MLB and all of the 3 markets ahead of them have more than one professional baseball team.

[Parallex]

Okey here's my early thoughts on the Jays for next year...

The Bats: They're going to be even better. All the big bats from this past season are going to be back and we'll hopefully have a healthy Michael Saunders and a healthy Devon Travis to provide even more depth. This team can hit. Full year from an acclimated Tulo will be a big upgrade as well.

The Arms: As "wow" as the bats will be the arms will be what keep us biting our finger nails. Most of the money saved from the departure of Buehrle, Iztarius, and Romero will be eaten up by the players escalating up the arbitration scale (Plus Martin's raise). If we can get Estrada to sign on at 10 per that'll eat up the rest leaving two question marks in the rotation. We can lower that to one if we want to bet on Hutchison being 2014 Hutchison (who was quite good) and not 2015 Hutchison (who was not). If we're going to take from the bullpen we need it to be Osuna as Sanchez has had uninspiring results as a starter at every level (Selfishly I hope Venditte makes the team because... switch-pitcher!).

Palace Intrigue: I like the selection of Lacava (hopefully he'll get to drop the interim). I mean... if you couldn't get AA to re-up then his RH man is the logical choice. Gibby sticking around is good. Shapiro is a bright guy so I'm not bent out of shape about management.

The Farm: Badly need to restock the arms. Considering the derth of quality arms at the high minors I'd recommend heavily scouting NCAA hurlers in prep for the draft.

Functionally I think the Jays can do next year what they did this past year but they're going to have to depend on the results matching talent (AKA not have a mediocre first half record despite the great run differential) because there will be no orgy of rental trades... the Jays don't have the prospect capital to spend anymore.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Okey here's my early thoughts on the Jays for next year...

The Bats: They're going to be even better. All the big bats from this past season are going to be back and we'll hopefully have a healthy Michael Saunders and a healthy Devon Travis to provide even more depth. This team can hit. Full year from an acclimated Tulo will be a big upgrade as well.

The Arms: As "wow" as the bats will be the arms will be what keep us biting our finger nails. Most of the money saved from the departure of Buehrle, Iztarius, and Romero will be eaten up by the players escalating up the arbitration scale (Plus Martin's raise). If we can get Estrada to sign on at 10 per that'll eat up the rest leaving two question marks in the rotation. We can lower that to one if we want to bet on Hutchison being 2014 Hutchison (who was quite good) and not 2015 Hutchison (who was not). If we're going to take from the bullpen we need it to be Osuna as Sanchez has had uninspiring results as a starter at every level (Selfishly I hope Venditte makes the team because... switch-pitcher!).

Palace Intrigue: I like the selection of Lacava (hopefully he'll get to drop the interim). I mean... if you couldn't get AA to re-up then his RH man is the logical choice. Gibby sticking around is good. Shapiro is a bright guy so I'm not bent out of shape about management.

The Farm: Badly need to restock the arms. Considering the derth of quality arms at the high minors I'd recommend heavily scouting NCAA hurlers in prep for the draft.

Functionally I think the Jays can do next year what they did this past year but they're going to have to depend on the results matching talent (AKA not have a mediocre first half record despite the great run differential) because there will be no orgy of rental trades... the Jays don't have the prospect capital to spend anymore.

I agree on the bats, but they need to change their approach to have any change of advancing in the playoffs further. You can't hit 3-4 home runs a game when you are facing 3 all-star caliber pitchers in potentially a large field . Jays have to learn how to manufacture runs without the bomb.

Pitching is in a brutal place right now. There's absolutely no way Estrada signs for less than 15M a year. Rumors out there having his asking price at $15M per year over 4 years. He'll get 15M, the question mark is on the term. I don't think Hutchinson is an answer at all. He is a complete basket case. These problems started in the 2014 season. I see him going the Ricky Romero route. Fortunately for the Jays, these issues reared their ugly ahead before he got paid. Jays need to take Dickey's option, sign 2 starters (ace and a higher end guy), and add a minimum 2 power arms to the bullpen. This is completely not possible if there are no changes to the budget.

If the Jays address the pitching, they will challenge for the AL east again. If not, we are in for a long year which is going to turn into a fire sale by the trade deadline. Edwin, Bautista, Tulo, and Dickey will all be traded to bolster the non-existent farm team we currently have. Quite honestly, I think that was the plan all along (to shed salary), but Beeston and AA's shopping spree and subsequent great results really put a wrench in that.

[GirlySports]

what about Sanchez as a starter again?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

what about Sanchez as a starter again?

Walk way to many guys and doesn't strike out nearly enough. He hasn't excelled as a starter at any level in the minor leagues to say nothing of the majors. He's a bullpen guy.

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

There's absolutely no way Estrada signs for less than 15M a year.

There's no way he get's 15M. THe Jays will almost certainly offer him a qualifying offer and those kill the market value on anyone who isn't an ace level pitcher and Estrada isn't an ace level pitcher. I think he'll end up at about 10 per on a 3+ year deal.

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

If the Jays address the pitching, they will challenge for the AL east again. If not, we are in for a long year which is going to turn into a fire sale by the trade deadline.

That's entirely to pessimistic. The Jays first half record did not reflect the actual talent on the team. They can contend with no major offseason additions. If they can somehow wrangle a legit #3 guy into the rotation They ought to be the ALE favorites again.

[Hockey Fan #751]

^^ The Jays won the AL East with a rotation of Hutchison (opening day!), Dickey, Estrada, Buehrle and Norris/Sanchez/Doubront for well over half the year. And that was with Dickey off to a horrid start so even if he pitches below average you're still looking better off next year with:

Stroman, Dickey, Hutch, Sanchez, ?

And that's worst-case scenario.