2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by jayswin

As negative as it sounds, it's very likely. As fun as this year was, a media giant as crappy as Rogers simply isn't going to be the Yankees and spend every year with pure desire to win championships.

Not to be very pessimistic but my view of the future isn't very optimistic. You heard rumblings this past season that players were starting to get vocal about their disdain for Rogers and their lack of commitment to winning, so they caved and allowed AA to go for it this year.

Imo, they never had plans to continue the spending no matter how much success came from it. So what will likely happen now is we'll be in the hole due to some of our stars becoming FA's, who'll be replaced by far less skilled players on a budget, which will in turn deflate and piss off the remaining stars. Then we'll likely see one or two of them traded because they don't want to be here. Bautista and Tulo come to mind.

I hope that's all wrong, but spaces between the lines so far this off season seem to be a little too clear, and I think we'll see the Yankees and Red Sox (who will likely reload this off season) go back to the strong one two punch in the AL east, and we'll go back to battling it out with the Oriels and Rays for nothing but maybe a faint shot a wild card.

Bautista and Edwin are gone next year regardless. 2017 is when the budget cuts start. After next year without major spending and sudden willingness of players to work for Rogers, things are pretty bleak. No prospects left.

Also, I'm not so sure Rogers had anything to Do with this year's run. The more I think about it, the more I think Beeston said screw it I'm going out with a bang after the way you screwed me over and gave AA the go ahead. This is what lead the the friction between AA and Shapiro. This wasn't the plan at all when Shapiro was brought in. Rogers is hands off on baseball except for money. With all the moves the Jays made, they never really went above their budget. Reyes made more than Tulo, and adding Price and Revere was a short term salary pickup and AA had continually said they did have some room in their budget to add if need be. I'm not sure Rogers would be consulted at all so long as budget was left on track. As long as Beeston was good with it, they probably were.

[Hockey Fan #751]

Originally Posted by jayswin

As negative as it sounds, it's very likely. As fun as this year was, a media giant as crappy as Rogers simply isn't going to be the Yankees and spend every year with pure desire to win championships.

Not to be very pessimistic but my view of the future isn't very optimistic. You heard rumblings this past season that players were starting to get vocal about their disdain for Rogers and their lack of commitment to winning, so they caved and allowed AA to go for it this year.

Imo, they never had plans to continue the spending no matter how much success came from it. So what will likely happen now is we'll be in the hole due to some of our stars becoming FA's, who'll be replaced by far less skilled players on a budget, which will in turn deflate and piss off the remaining stars. Then we'll likely see one or two of them traded because they don't want to be here. Bautista and Tulo come to mind.

I hope that's all wrong, but spaces between the lines so far this off season seem to be a little too clear, and I think we'll see the Yankees and Red Sox (who will likely reload this off season) go back to the strong one two punch in the AL east, and we'll go back to battling it out with the Oriels and Rays for nothing but maybe a faint shot a wild card.

Yankees and Red Sox have been trying to reload for a few years now. I think they're both spinning their wheels a little right now (Yankees more so than Red Sox). Way too many holes in the Yankees lineup to really expect them to be more than a fringe division winner or wild card next season.

Red Sox might be a little better just because they have some young talent that could improve but I don't see all their solutions in free agency for a one-year turnaround, either.

I think the Jays will do everything they can to be competitive next season. Think about how much money Rogers made in this run. For Rogers it's about the money. Sellouts, TV ratings, a crapload of market share from TSN, etc. It makes too much sense to try and be competitive.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

All from various articles on bluebird banter (Jays fan website).

Osuna is pencilled in to start next year as things Currently stand. So is Sanchez. Bullpen is effectively completely gone with Hawkins retirement.

So are these legit articles or fan blogs

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

All from various articles on bluebird banter (Jays fan website).

Osuna is pencilled in to start next year as things Currently stand. So is Sanchez. Bullpen is effectively completely gone with Hawkins retirement.

I'm not a fan of moving Osuna into a starting position, both for his development and team success. He's been very solid as a closer and gives us one of the bets in the league. As a starter it seems a little early in his career and if he loses confidence and struggles it could really kill his progression and every thing that's gone right so far in his career.

It also kills our bullpen and requires us to spend decent money on a closer that will hopefully be as good as Osuna was this year. If this happens it seems very rushed and not the right way to develop him and will likely be a financial decision over a development decision, as he started to look shaky after about 5 batters when he went multiple innings this season.

I'm no expert but he seems like the type of player you bring along slowly, he's only 20 years old. God I hope this team isn't in shambles next year. I'll be as optimistic as I can, but it's tough.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

So are these legit articles or fan blogs

Mixture of both. That said, the articles posted are not fan blogs like me and you are doing here per say. Despite not being on sportsnet or tsb, alot are accredited media members. They often break weaver wire news and trafe discussions before the main stream media does. Obviously they are wrong sometimes, but that site as a whole is pretty reputable.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I'm not a fan of moving Osuna into a starting position, both for his development and team success. He's been very solid as a closer and gives us one of the bets in the league. As a starter it seems a little early in his career and if he loses confidence and struggles it could really kill his progression and every thing that's gone right so far in his career.

It also kills our bullpen and requires us to spend decent money on a closer that will hopefully be as good as Osuna was this year. If this happens it seems very rushed and not the right way to develop him and will likely be a financial decision over a development decision, as he started to look shaky after about 5 batters when he went multiple innings this season.

I'm no expert but he seems like the type of player you bring along slowly, he's only 20 years old. God I hope this team isn't in shambles next year. I'll be as optimistic as I can, but it's tough.

If the Jays see Osuna as a starter, keeping him in the bullpen is the worst possible way to develop him. Generally never works. The Yankees absolutely ruined Chamberlans doing that to him when he was younger. I fear the Jays have already ruined Sanchez switching him back and fourth.

[TheAlpineOracle]

TSN (Rick Westhead), now also reporting Jays budget will remain unchanged from previous year. Will be around 125m again. This would currently pu them at the 10-11 spot in MLB and not even in the stratosphere of the top 6. Says Rogers will point towards exchange rate to Justify.

If they keep the same budget, by the seasons starts their budget is likely to be in the lower half of the league as player salaries are escalating and the other teams in their range are expected to spend.


I don't expect Toronto to spend like the Dodgers or Yankees, but they can and should be spending more when it makes sense. It makes sense now. This is not a small market team.

[Hockey Fan #751]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

TSN (Rick Westhead), now also reporting Jays budget will remain unchanged from previous year. Will be around 125m again. This would currently pu them at the 10-11 spot in MLB and not even in the stratosphere of the top 6. Says Rogers will point towards exchange rate to Justify.

If they keep the same budget, by the seasons starts their budget is likely to be in the lower half of the league as player salaries are escalating and the other teams in their range are expected to spend.


I don't expect Toronto to spend like the Dodgers or Yankees, but they can and should be spending more when it makes sense. It makes sense now. This is not a small market team.

$180 million Canadian is a lot (Westhead said $140 m). I think that only three teams had more than $180 million US as their payroll. Jays started last season at $122 million. It's an increase.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

125m is more than fair with the exchange rate what it is. Hopefully that's true.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

$180 million Canadian is a lot (Westhead said $140 m). I think that only three teams had more than $180 million US as their payroll. Jays started last season at $122 million. It's an increase.

It is an increase, but they also saw an unexpected 100 million dollar bump in profits from july on. Not reinvesting some of that is a joke.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Rogers is also hedged on fx in the Jays and corporately as a whole. So fx is a mute point.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

It is an increase, but they also saw an unexpected 100 million dollar bump in profits from july on. Not reinvesting some of that is a joke.

Yup, that is the problem with corporate ownership in baseball. Nothing is reinvested back into the team. Conflicting objectives. Will never have a perennial winning team without any reinvestment.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Yup, that is the problem with corporate ownership in baseball. Nothing is reinvested back into the team. Conflicting objectives. Will never have a perennial winning team without any reinvestment.

While that may be true, if they still plan to have a top 5/10 payroll I really don't see what there is to complain about.

Plenty of teams make it work with less, no reason the Jays can't.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Plenty of teams make it work with less, no reason the Jays can't.

And that's why the Jays haven't made the playoffs in 22 years prior to this one.

Either they don't spend enough money on prospect acquisition, which was a huge problem under JP Riccardi and Gord Ash, or they don't spend the extra 15-20 million to have all the bases covered on the Major league team. If they spend 140, which is what they spent last year, they will either need two good pen arms, a starter, or both. Making do means they will be an 80-85 win team again, and not good enough to make the playoffs.

It is fine to do with less when you've got a lot of good young talent coming up. The Jays don't have anyone other than Pompey and Alford (two outfielders) that are close in the upper part of the depth chart. You could save 7 million I guess if you trade Revere for someone and have Pompey be the LF, but he's not going to get you much as they didn't really give up anything of note to get him in the first place.

Just going to be nothing but half measures and more middling baseball. No lessons learned.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

TSN (Rick Westhead), now also reporting Jays budget will remain unchanged from previous year. Will be around 125m again. This would currently pu them at the 10-11 spot in MLB and not even in the stratosphere of the top 6. Says Rogers will point towards exchange rate to Justify.

If they keep the same budget, by the seasons starts their budget is likely to be in the lower half of the league as player salaries are escalating and the other teams in their range are expected to spend.


I don't expect Toronto to spend like the Dodgers or Yankees, but they can and should be spending more when it makes sense. It makes sense now. This is not a small market team.

Originally Posted by Caged Great

And that's why the Jays haven't made the playoffs in 22 years prior to this one.

Either they don't spend enough money on prospect acquisition, which was a huge problem under JP Riccardi and Gord Ash, or they don't spend the extra 15-20 million to have all the bases covered on the Major league team. If they spend 140, which is what they spent last year, they will either need two good pen arms, a starter, or both. Making do means they will be an 80-85 win team again, and not good enough to make the playoffs.

It is fine to do with less when you've got a lot of good young talent coming up. The Jays don't have anyone other than Pompey and Alford (two outfielders) that are close in the upper part of the depth chart. You could save 7 million I guess if you trade Revere for someone and have Pompey be the LF, but he's not going to get you much as they didn't really give up anything of note to get him in the first place.

Just going to be nothing but half measures and more middling baseball. No lessons learned.

That's just bad GM if 140 million is spent and they still need 3 arms.
Now the farm is totally depleted there really isn't a future.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

That's just bad GM if 140 million is spent and they still need 3 arms.
Now the farm is totally depleted there really isn't a future.

There's about 10 teams in and around the Jays payroll. A lot of which are considerably smaller markets. Spending 120-140M on Salary is basically middle of the road next year with anticipated rising player costs. There's basically ten teams above the Jays, 10 teams in and around the Jays, and 10 teams in the abyss (which the the Jays will be back down to in 2018). This 140M they are talking about was what the Jays salary was at the end of the year. They didn't pay out 140M, Rever/Price/Hawkins were pro-rated payouts, but not pro-rated in this 140M amount they are coming up with.

The Jays have the resources/fans/market to remain profitable while being a top 5 team in spending each year. The problem is that when you are owed by a corporation, just being profitable isn't enough. Maximization of profits for return on shareholder investments is the key goal corporately. Doesn't mesh in MLB at all. Rogers aren't putting a dime back into the team. All of the profits go directly to their corporate bottom line and on to the shareholders. You cannot be a successful franchise when this is the case.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

While that may be true, if they still plan to have a top 5/10 payroll I really don't see what there is to complain about.

Plenty of teams make it work with less, no reason the Jays can't.

What teams make it worse routinely with less? The model franchises for yearly success are San Francisco, Boston, Yankees, St. Louis, Dodgers, Anaheim, Washington, and Detroit. All of these teams accept for St. Louis have significantly higher payrolls than the Blue Jays. St. Louis spends about the same as Toronto, but doesn't play in a the AL East where the majority of the mega spenders reside.


You can throw up Kansas and the Mets, but they are not routinely successful and they are full of players on their rookie deals. These are going to be 200M payroll teams when their entry level deals expire . Christ the Mets are going to have to dump 100M on pitching alone in the near future if they wish to keep it together. We'll see if Kansas keeps its team together. My guess is they won't as deals start to expire. They have budgetary constraints much like the Jays, but they are a small market team with probably 3/4 less of a fan base than the Jays have.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

What teams make it worse routinely with less? The model franchises for yearly success are San Francisco, Boston, Yankees, St. Louis, Dodgers, Anaheim, Washington, and Detroit. All of these teams accept for St. Louis have significantly higher payrolls than the Blue Jays. St. Louis spends about the same as Toronto, but doesn't play in a the AL East where the majority of the mega spenders reside.


You can throw up Kansas and the Mets, but they are not routinely successful and they are full of players on their rookie deals. These are going to be 200M payroll teams when their entry level deals expire . Christ the Mets are going to have to dump 100M on pitching alone in the near future if they wish to keep it together. We'll see if Kansas keeps its team together. My guess is they won't as deals start to expire. They have budgetary constraints much like the Jays, but they are a small market team with probably 3/4 less of a fan base than the Jays have.

Teams routinely do make it with less (like you point out as well) but I agree it is impossible to sustain, while keeping all the same players anyway. It remains to be seen what they will do this off season, so I'm not going to get too excited about it... yet. They need to fill some holes in their starting rotation and bullpen, if they don't do that, yes I'll be pissed. There are other ways to fill holes besides signing free agents though so I don't think it's time to panic yet necessarily. Lets just see what they do over the next 5 months.

Last year, 9 teams had a higher payroll than the Jays. Not one advanced as far as the Jays did. 6 missed the payoffs completely, 2 were eliminated in the divisional series and one lost in the WC game. Every year it seems that multiple top 10 payroll teams miss the playoffs and a couple mid/small markets squeeze in. Maybe it's not the same teams every year and yes, money will fix a lot of things, but I just don't think it's as black and white as you make it seem IMO. It's more important you maximize the resources you do have than to worry about what the other teams are doing. Especially since most of them seem to employ a shot gun approach to financial management anyway, wasting tons of money (and their inherent advantage) in the process. There's lots of good, available players not making big bucks yet, the key is to find and target those guys.

The tone of this thread surprises me. Pretty doom and gloom for all the success the Jays just had. Yes, next year will likely not be the same and yes, the farm has been depleted, but those aren't reasons to lose hope. AA is gone, Shapiro is in, I'm pissed at that personally but i also realize that it doesn't preclude us from ever having success again either. Also, even if next year goes off the rails, we have some great trade assets that could re-stock the farm nicely (for those who think we have no future). Things are hardly as dire as some make it seem around here.

[adc]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

What teams make it worse routinely with less? The model franchises for yearly success are San Francisco, Boston, Yankees, St. Louis, Dodgers, Anaheim, Washington, and Detroit. All of these teams accept for St. Louis have significantly higher payrolls than the Blue Jays. St. Louis spends about the same as Toronto, but doesn't play in a the AL East where the majority of the mega spenders reside.


You can throw up Kansas and the Mets, but they are not routinely successful and they are full of players on their rookie deals. These are going to be 200M payroll teams when their entry level deals expire . Christ the Mets are going to have to dump 100M on pitching alone in the near future if they wish to keep it together. We'll see if Kansas keeps its team together. My guess is they won't as deals start to expire. They have budgetary constraints much like the Jays, but they are a small market team with probably 3/4 less of a fan base than the Jays have.

Are people still using this BS excuse?

[GirlySports]

I think Toronto has it a bit backwards. Teams like Kansas City, Tampa Bay in the past and Chicago Cubs in the future ride their youngsters into the playoffs and deal with the consequences once those contracts expire. Yes Kansas City will need to blow it up at some point but they've already got two World Series appearances. San Francisco used Sandoval as much as they could and then let him go once he was useless. They are reloading for next year.

Toronto was doing the opposite. Those teams above would never trade a cheap prospect like Hechavarria. Toronto trades him for Reyes which is 20 million more and has a bad wheel. And in that trade they add Buerhle and Johnson, another 30 million. Then they add Dickey that's 15 more million. That still only got them to .500 so of course Rogers is not happy.

Fire of the Phoenix: no doom and gloom here. If Shipiro can get a good GM I think they'll be better off without AA but it'll take a year or two.