Is this a playoff team?

[Calgary4LIfe]

My one and only worry about this is that I hope it isn't the "Ottawa" syndrome. I don't want the Flames to have one great year followed immediately with a "oh yeah, we really are still rebuilding". At least not THIS year with the quality of this draft.

With that being said, I would love if this team has turned the corner and is on the upswing and stays there - minus a few bumps on the road. I do think there is enough depth and size in the organization that if they continue their development, this team can indeed become contenders. I think if they were to finish near the bottom (not even at the McDavid, Eichel or Hannifin level, but just bottom 10) it would add a lot more security for the future.

I don't mind another painful year in the standings as long as you have progression. However, maybe it is just my baseless fear after seeing Ottawa have what I consider a terrible rebuild. They did better than they thought they would, then the pressure was on and they went out and made a 'splash' and acquired expensive assets, and I look at them (though they are doing reasonably well at the moment) and think: "They are nowhere close to being a contender - just a bubble playoff team."

I don't want this to lead the Flames into being a playoff bubble team. As long as they don't give into the pressure and try to make splash to shore up their holes and start making a run, then I am fine with their performance regardless of where they end up in the standings - near the bottom, the middle or the top. Just keep giving me exciting hockey, and keep building towards an eye to contending. This rebuild can't be rushed (though of course, doesn't have to take a generation or two like Edmonton's!), but it can actually be enjoyed (who hasn't enjoyed Flames' hockey last season and this season thus far?).

I am not sure if they are a real playoff team or not, but I am sure they are not a contender at the moment. To me, that is the goal of a rebuild. Playoffs isn't a goal of a rebuild, it should be a natural byproduct. Becoming a real contender with a real shot at winning the cup is the real goal here. Just don't make any big splashes in trades Flames, at least ones that don't involve youth in return.

[djsFlames]

Or Jooris, Gaudreau and Granlund keep the energy flowing and the team stays the course.

Giordano and Brodie are really the ones driving the offense. They're certainly no fluke. Hiller's numbers are falling (as expected) but we're still winning games cause our kids and defence are putting points up. And Hiller's still coming up big at key times.

If we give ourselves a big cushion in this stretch (5 or 6 games above), we just need to play .500 hockey and we'll stay in the playoff hunt into the new year.

[foshizzle11]

I think becoming a team who can win the cup is the goal here, not just make the playoffs. That isn't good enough and many fans on here would agree. I don't think we are following the Ottawa path at all. I think we have a few great pieces for our future, a #1 Dman, #1a/b centre (Bennett and Monahan) and a good supporting cast in our veterans. We actually have depth at other positions. We are in a good space, it is all about asset management and player development now.

Bubble teams won't cut it here and I think Treliving and Burke know that. We also have a great coach who has won at the NHL level before, we are in a for wild ride over the next few seasons and it is just starting now!

[Neeper]

I expected us to be a playoff team next year at the beginning of the season. This year my expectations was that we would be fighting for a spot for sure. Odds are looking good right now.

I think this team is so well coached that if we miss, it won't be because of fatigue or getting away from the system. It will be because of injuries to key players like Gio, Brodie or Gaudreau.

[djsFlames]

I don't even care if this is an Ottawa-esque fluke season (though I doubt it). Playoff hockey is playoff hockey. Would get the whole city behind the team again and get us back on the map.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I'd say no we aren't.

The predictive stats like possession and luck indicate the team is playing over its head.

I don't think there is any question that this team is playing over its head, and things will regress back to the mean. But in my mind, that means a regression from close to the top to the bubble. The way I interpret the question is whether or not this team will be good enough to make the playoffs: in other words, is this team good enough to be playing meaningful games in March and April? And I think the answer to that question is definitely "yes." Yes, this team is good. Yes, they are not as good as their record. Yes, they will stumble. But no, I don't believe it will be such a big stumble as to see them plummet to the nether-regions of lottery pick territory. I really think that they will be in the hunt all year.

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Depth issues - not withstanding call ups performing well on adrenaline - will likely weigh down over the next 20.

Honestly, no. Depth becomes a problem if one of Giordano or Brodie miss significant time. Up front, I would say the Flames have excellent depth, and it is showing now. Granlund and Gaudreau have been a revelation. Jooris is better than anyone imagined—and even if he does fall back from his current level of play, he is still a great option for the third line. Ferland looked great before getting hurt. I really don't think they will suffer for want of depth—at least not forward depth.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by sa226

...We do have some "averages" that are helping us win that I think are unsustainable throughout the season. (Shots for, offense from the blueline, goaltending to a degree etc)...

Why is the offense from the blueline "unsustainable"?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Depth becomes a problem if one of Giordano or Brodie miss significant time. Up front, I would say the Flames have excellent depth, and it is showing now. Granlund and Gaudreau have been a revelation. Jooris is better than anyone imagined—and even if he does fall back from his current level of play, he is still a great option for the third line. Ferland looked great before getting hurt. I really don't think they will suffer for want of depth—at least not forward depth.

If any of their top-four d-men go down, the Flames lack of depth will be exposed. If two starters go down, they'll be in big, big trouble.

I do like the Flames depth up front. But young players are often boosted by adreneline. That lasts about 5-8 games, then the grind kicks in. I really like Granlund, Jooris, and Ferland. But I suspect they'll look different in NHL games 15-40 than what we've seen from them so far.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Why is the offense from the blueline "unsustainable"?

Do you really think Gio and Brodie are going to finish the season with 76 points each?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I do like the Flames depth up front. But young players are often boosted by adreneline. That lasts about 5-8 games, then the grind kicks in. I really like Granlund, Jooris, and Ferland. But I suspect they'll look different in NHL games 15-40 than what we've seen from them so far.

That's true, but I am less concerned about this as a problem for Jooris and for Granlund in particular. Jooris has already been here for a while now, and has been in and out of the lineup, but doesn't seem to miss a step. But like I pointed out above, even if he does settle back a bit from how he is performing now, he is still a great option on the third line. Granlund looks like he has picked up from where he left off in his call up last year. His professional career history suggests that he is pretty steady in all sorts of situations.

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Do you really think Gio and Brodie are going to finish the season with 76 points each?

No. They are ridiculously hot right now. I took the use of the term "unsustainable" to suggest an impending huge dropoff, and I don't see that happening at all. But I do expect two things: 1) They will continue all season to be catalysts in the Flames offence. 2) They will as a result both finish among the scoring leaders for defensemen. What I don't expect to see is a plummet in their production. I really don't think .6–.7 points/game is at all out of range given the type of game that they and the Flames play, and even at that rate the Flames should continue to be competitive.

[sa226]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Why is the offense from the blueline "unsustainable"?

Brodie and Gio are on pace for roughly 80pts. Wideman is on pace for roughly 55-60pts. Russel is on pace for about 40pts.

I love this team as much as the next guy and agree with the majority of people that say that the Giordano\Brodie pairing is among the best in the league right now. They are just plain fun to watch.

But given the career averages in addition to the ebb and flows of a 82 game grind to go along with the added difficulty of competition as the season progresses it will be difficult for those guys to sustain that pace. I'm not saying its impossible, but its unlikely.

This post is likely a bit "Moonish" just defending my point is all.

[Regorium]

I think it is. Our work ethic and structured system will get us there.

I think it's a horrible mistake in the long run, but I'm having way too much fun watching them win games. However, I sure as heck won't be whining or crying if/when we go on a big losing streak.

I really think we're one good draft away from having the pieces to not only be a fringe playoff team, but a top stanley cup contender. Fluking out a year early might leave us just short at the end of everything.

[bubbsy]

sorry for the bump...

i know we've all been contemplating the flames great start. Is it too early to judge? too small a sample size with players overacheiving at rates unsustainable? playing weak competition?

The last question seems to have been considered in the following tweet (which sort of surprised me):

James Mirtle ‏@mirtle 25s26 seconds ago NHL teams with most difficult schedule so far? 1. Dallas 2. Colorado 3. Calgary (!) Easiest schedule: Boston, Carolina, Toronto.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I would like to congratulate the 14 other posters (Arya Stark, CaptainSunshin3, dammage79, endeavor, Frank MetaMusil, habernac, jg13, Mister Yamoto, Mr.Coffee, robbie111, TapeToTape, TheDebaser, Tron_fdc, _Q_), besides myself, who were courageous enough to stand up and shout "YES!" and believe in the team.

[SuperMatt18]

That surprised me too.

2 against each Nashville, Tampa, Montreal would probably skew that though since those teams were all off to hot starts.

Plus a tough road (10) to home (6) split so far.

[Stay Golden]

Keep with Hartley's game plan. He has this team earning the league wide reputation as the hardest working team. Youth, speed, solid goal tending and hard work is going to give this group a legitimate shot at post season action.

[_Q_]

The upcoming games against Anaheim and San Jose are going to be huge for this team. We can't let the Ducks separate themselves from the pack, or let the Sharks leapfrog us in the standings.

I think if we can have strong games against those two teams coming up, it'll start looking more as if this team is legit.

[Kidder]

I agree with the sentiment the team is playing over the head, and the bubble is likely to burst at some point, or at least the team will stumble.

But I think what I'm most encouraged about is how we've continued to wrack up wins despite injuries to key forwards who will certainly upgrade the team upon their return.

So the lustre coming off the rookies' play should coincide with the return of Colborne, Backlund and Raymond, all of which were looking like top 6 forwards before they went down. Stajan is a reliable piece as well when he returns around Christmas.

I also agree we are in trouble if any of our top 4 D go down to injury or regress in play, and kaput if Gio or Brodie go down for a significant amount if time.

But despite injuries to key forwards, goaltending level out, and a tough schedule, we continue to find ways to grab points and it definitely feels we'll be in the playoff mix deep into this season.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Goaltending has already leveled out.

As far as the rookies go: Granlund is just as good as he was last year, meaning he belongs in the NHL. Jooris is a surprise, but I've seen no drop in his play at all so far, which you would expect after the first few games. Gaudreau had his struggles to start the year, and he's still learning the pro game, but I don't see him falling too far off because his natural abilities are so high. Baertschi hasn't been impressive at all, so I'd argue the team is probably worse with him in the lineup right now.

You have to remember that at the time of the injuries, Colborne led the Flames in assists and Raymond led the team in goals. Those are two key offensive contributors that aren't available during the last stretch where they've gone 4-1 and scored a lot of goals.

The one thing the Flames can't afford is long absences from either Giordano or Brodie. We just don't have a lot of depth to be able to compete without those two. Wotherspoon is the only d-man that looks NHL ready.

[Kidder]

To me one of the biggest moments that will define if this team makes playoffs or not is what happened after the Washington OT win.

Everyone was singing Monahan's praises for the OT winner (for good reason) but what is glossed over was just how badly he misplayed the final seconds of regulation to allow what should have been a sure goal and 0 points if not for the larceny of Hiller.

On that rush Ovechkin curled back toward the Blueline where Wideman had him contained and Monahan was 5th guy back, and drew towards Ovechkin leaving the middle of the ice wide open. Ovechkin fed the trailer and Russell was caught in between the puck carrier and back door threat and that should have been the game right there.

Those are the type of plays that will burn you in the long run. Especially considering the timing. If Hartley took him aside after and pointed out the blunder and Monahan took it to heart I have great faith this team will have what it takes to make playoffs. And the way Hartley has expertly handled his young guys I believe this was addressed.

The ability to learn from your mistakes even during high times is what I'm getting at. You can not get complacent when the results are favourable. You must continuously strive for improvement.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Kidder

To me one of the biggest moments that will define if this team makes playoffs or not is what happened after the Washington OT win.

Everyone was singing Monahan's praises for the OT winner (for good reason) but what is glossed over was just how badly he misplayed the final seconds of regulation to allow what should have been a sure goal and 0 points if not for the larceny of Hiller.

On that rush Ovechkin curled back toward the Blueline where Wideman had him contained and Monahan was 5th guy back, and drew towards Ovechkin leaving the middle of the ice wide open. Ovechkin fed the trailer and Russell was caught in between the puck carrier and back door threat and that should have been the game right there.

Those are the type of plays that will burn you in the long run. Especially considering the timing. If Hartley took him aside after and pointed out the blunder and Monahan took it to heart I have great faith this team will have what it takes to make playoffs. And the way Hartley has expertly handled his young guys I believe this was addressed.

The ability to learn from your mistakes even during high times is what I'm getting at. You can not get complacent when the results are favourable. You must continuously strive for improvement.

Meh - mistakes happen, and Hiller is part of the team, anyway. Besides, it may or may not be Monahan against the likes of Ovie when Backlund comes back.