Is this a playoff team?

[swo2k1]

Flames were 6-6-2 last year after 14 games. It's a 4 point improvement, but there are a lot of tough games to be played. I don't expect the playoffs, but like most others I have really enjoyed how it has gone so far.

[sa226]

Its fun to talk about, but way too early to seriously talk about. The 30-50 game mark will be a better indicator. There are still some really good teams struggling to find their game. Once the season hits its stride, we will have a better idea.

We do have some "averages" that are helping us win that I think are unsustainable throughout the season. (Shots for, offense from the blueline, goaltending to a degree etc) And I think our hardwork will be less of an advantage once other teams start ramping it up.

But we do have some Xfactors. Mainly the progression of the rookies. Is Johnny the real deal? Is Jooris the real deal? Will Monahan continue to develop? Will Colborne continue to develop?

Also our depth at forward has shown to be a strength, but our depth on defense is certainly not a strength.

Whatever happens, I think this year will be just as fun as last year, if not more.

[Vulcan]

At the beginning of the season, I was hoping for the playoffs but figured I'd come back down to earth about the end of November. As it is, I'm a little more hopeful and if we are still in it by than, we might have a chance. At least it beats by a country mile, when we are losing a game, to consider our better draft position.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by _Q_

What the hell is score adjusted possession and PDO? And why does it seem like a new advanced stat is invented every season?

PDO is shooting percentage + save percentage at even strength. Right now, we are at 9.6% shooting and 94.1% save, for a PDO of 103.7. The theory behind PDO is that as time goes on, teams will inevitably regress toward the mean, or a PDO of 100. Usually when you hear an advanced stat guy talk about a team being "lucky" or "unlucky", it is because their PDO has deviated well from that 100 mark. We are currently third in the league by this metric (Pittsburgh 104.6, Nashville 104.1). Carolina is dead last at 95.6.

To put our 103.7 in context, the league leader in PDO last year (Boston) was at 102.5. In 2011-12, Detroit at 101.5. Like most advanced stats, PDO relies on larger sample sizes, so the lockout-shortened 2012-13 saw Toronto and Pittsburgh at 103.0. The expectation this stat creates for the Flames is that our current PDO is unsustainable. That means the shooting percentage or the save percentage, or both, is likely to go down. Either results in fewer wins. But if we can stay over 100 for the season, that helps our chances considerably.


"Score-adjusted possession" probably means either "Score-adjusted Fenwick" or "Corsi Close". Both stats look at the number of shot attempts at various score lines in the game (i.e.: tied, up one, down one, etc). Corsi is shots on net plus shots that miss plus blocked shots. Fenwick remove blocked shots. Put simply, both Corsi and Fenwick argue that we get our heads beat in in terms of shot attempts, which is roughly correlated to possession.

Our score-adjusted Fenwick, for instance, is as follows (50 is basically 'break even'):
SAF (formula in link, it's complicated): 45.27 (4th worst in NHL)
Down 2+ goals: 44.09 (5th worst)
Down 1: 51.52 (12th worst)
Tied: 44.79 (3rd worst)
Up 1: 45.27 (12th worst)
Up 2+: 40.95 (7th worst)
The stats with goal differentials are percentages. i.e.: we only generate about 44.8% of total shot attempts at even strength when the score is tied.


The tl;dr version of all this is thus: Our goaltending is likely to revert to more human numbers at some point and if we don't control the puck a whole lot more when that happens, the bus is likely to go right off the cliff.

[Locke]

I voted: No, the wheels will come off.

But, as Texcritic and I discussed in another thread, if they dont make it this year I cant imagine they'll be far off next year and the year after should be almost a lock.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

The problem with Corsi/Fenwick is they will always favor teams that come over the blue line and rip a shot on net first chance. Sure, the more times you do that the more chances you have at scoring, but what I have noticed is the Flames are playing a possession game and they try to go for great chances rather than just firing on net*, which also skews our PDO. I'd be curious to look at the correlation of playing style and Corsi/Fenwick, but I'm too lazy. Stat geeks, where are you?

*should be noted that I think it's never a bad play to shoot, but obviously the shooting percentages change when you hold onto the puck longer and go for the better shot rather than the weak shot from the wing.

[trublmaker]

As of Nov. 5 they are a playoff team, I see no reason why the "wheels will fall off" or any other such crap. They are a good team right now and won't slow down.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by trublmaker

As of Nov. 5 they are a playoff team, I see no reason why the "wheels will fall off" or any other such crap. They are a good team right now and won't slow down.

Its a marathon, not a sprint. 82 games is a long time for a young team.

I dont think they're going to tumble down the standings a la Oilers, but I dont see them making the playoffs this season.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by ah123

The Flames have only played two elite teams in the West so far (Chicago and St Louis) and the difference showed, regardless of the results. I fully expect this team to fall in the standings once they start tangling with the teams in the West.

Is there any team that has played a lot of elite teams? Its 14 games - 15% of them have been against elite teams. They also played Tampa and Montreal three times who are the top teams in the East right now.

In the next 14 games they play 3 against elite teams (Hawks, Ducks x 2, depending on how how you feel about the Sharks). Its not like you're going to play 10 elite teams in 14 games.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Is there any team that has played a lot of elite teams? Its 14 games - 15% of them have been against elite teams. They also played Tampa and Montreal three times who are the top teams in the East right now.

In the next 14 games they play 3 against elite teams (Hawks, Ducks x 2, depending on how how you feel about the Sharks). Its not like you're going to play 10 elite teams in 14 games.

Unless you're the Oilers, then every team is an elite team. Its all relative.

[trublmaker]

Originally Posted by Locke

Its a marathon, not a sprint. 82 games is a long time for a young team.

I dont think they're going to tumble down the standings a la Oilers, but I dont see them making the playoffs this season.

I think they have a nice mix of youthful exuberance and veteran leadership, they are missing some top players and didn't miss a beat. Anyway I believe.

[Yrebmi]

Maybe we should ask ourselves is Vancouver a playoff team?
Their California road trip is coming up right away.

IMO I think their standing is inflated by the 3 Edmonton games.

[TheDebaser]

I think something that is easy for people to overlook is the upward trajectory of this team.

Shots for the first 5 flames games: 124-flames 188-opponents (40% of shots)

Shots for the last 9 flames games: 254-flames 233-opponents (52% of shots)

I think the Flames are only going to keep improving the way they did last year. I don't think they're a shoo-in for a playoff spot, but I think they're putting themselves in a position where they can realistically get lucky.

[united]

Originally Posted by Day Tripper

It's only 14 games...I remember a few years ago when the Oilers were 9-3-2 after 14 games and ended up picking 1st overall.

At the time: 2nd-place in the West, 23rd in possession, PDO 3rd. A clear indication of an unsustainable hot streak and yet Oilers fans at the time were talking Cup aspirations.

[ricardodw]

Hard to imagine any team winning 3 games against top opposition- 20n the road road games missing a complete top line.... Colborne-Backlund-Raymond

The Flames Strength of Schedule to-date has them playing teams that have a cumulative record of 88-66-19 ---- the Flames opposition are playing at a full season rate rate of 93.0 pts (2 pts higher than last years 16th seed playoff team)

The Ducks strength of schedule to date is 66-64-18 83 pts.
the Canucks 68-65-29 83.5
The Penguins 67-49-17 93.1

So out of the top teams Calgary has had the hardest schedule todate along with Pittsburgh.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by united

At the time: 2nd-place in the West, 23rd in possession, PDO 3rd. A clear indication of an unsustainable hot streak and yet Oilers fans at the time were talking Cup aspirations.

I really take offense that you would think this Flames team is anything close to resembling any Oiler team of the last decade.

These are NOT the Edmonton Oilers, because as we all know E=NG, and this team is definitely NOT no good. (Sorry for the double negative)

[Lucky23]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Hard to imagine any team winning 3 games against top opposition- 20n the road road games missing a complete top line.... Colborne-Backlund-Raymond

The Flames Strength of Schedule to-date has them playing teams that have a cumulative record of 88-66-19 ---- the Flames opposition are playing at a full season rate rate of 93.0 pts (2 pts higher than last years 16th seed playoff team)

The Ducks strength of schedule to date is 66-64-18 83 pts.
the Canucks 68-65-29 83.5
The Penguins 67-49-17 93.1

So out of the top teams Calgary has had the hardest schedule todate along with Pittsburgh.

Along with the majority of the games being away from the dome.

[Sylvanfan]

They are starting to convince me that they're a lot closer to being a playoff team than they are to a team that will be picking in the top 5. The West is still a brutal Conference for a team to make the playoffs, and there are a lot of games to be played against those Monsters from California.

But if you do go back to last year combined with the first 13 games this year it's getting to be about half a season where this team has been collecting points at a pretty consistent pace.

It's to a point where I'm no longer hoping they'll win and not completely embarrass themselves...to I think they will win games, and I'm hoping they keep winning and make a push for the playoffs like the 03-04 team.

Think back to the 2007-08 Chicago Blackhawks team. The year that Kane and Toews were both rookies. People questioned if Kane would be able to play in the NHL at his size, and there was no guarantee Toews would be the player he turned into to. Look at the rest of that roster, and consider how those guys were regarded at that time. They needed that good year where they surprised people to make others believe they were that good.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

I really take offense that you would think this Flames team is anything close to resembling any Oiler team of the last decade.

These are NOT the Edmonton Oilers, because as we all know E=NG, and this team is definitely NOT no good. (Sorry for the double negative)

We certainly are not going to be drafting first overall without a lottery win, but that team does stand as a cautionary tale against getting too excited too fast. The Flames 14-2-2-2 start to 2000-01 (or 01-02?) also.

Regardless of all that, there is so much to be optimistic about. As an earlier poster noted: right now, we have a Jack Adams-calibre coach, a Calder-calibre rookie and two Norris-calibre defencemen. If that all holds, no reason not to reach for the moon.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by trublmaker

As of Nov. 5 they are a playoff team, I see no reason why the "wheels will fall off" or any other such crap. They are a good team right now and won't slow down.

We are going to stumble. It is inevitable. That is part and parcel of an 82-game season for a young team. But the wins we are stringing together now will mitigate the damage such a streak could cause.