How many brutal giveaways does Butler need to do..

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But that is part of the game and can't simply be dismissed just because he is a defenseman.

There are two potential reasons:

1) coincidence, random luck...

2) he is impacting the other players...

To the best of my knowledge, the idea is to outscore the other team. And if he gives up as many goals as other players, but results in fewer goals for, well you can do the math.

I see no reason these two options are mutually exclusive. But by the same token, because Butler is what he is— a marginal bottom-pairing defenseman on a bad defensive team—it makes little sense to scape goat him for things that are much larger team issues. Namely, that his replacement will not solve the sorts of problems that people have been complaining about here. As I said earlier, swapping out a bottom pairing defenseman for another bottom pairing defenseman is most likely to have a negligible effect on the Flames's fortunes in the short term, and it is highly debatable whether such an action presents any long-term benefits.

I think that what Supermatt's posts illustrate better than anything is how unbalanced and unnecessarily polarising people's criticism is of this player. That it is foolish and futile to expend one's frustration on a player like Butler under the circumstances in which he is playing.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Dion

Nothing more needs to be said.

If you really think that, then clearly you need to go back and read more carefully. The numbers themselves can be deceiving if divorced from the appropriate context.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I see no reason these two options are mutually exclusive. But by the same token, because Butler is what he is— a marginal bottom-pairing defenseman on a bad defensive team—it makes little sense to scape goat him for things that are much larger team issues. Namely, that his replacement will not solve the sorts of problems that people have been complaining about here. As I said earlier, swapping out a bottom pairing defenseman for another bottom pairing defenseman is most likely to have a negligible effect on the Flames's fortunes in the short term, and it is highly debatable whether such an action presents any long-term benefits.

I think that what Supermatt's posts illustrate better than anything is how unbalanced and unnecessarily polarising people's criticism is of this player. That it is foolish and futile to expend one's frustration on a player like Butler under the circumstances in which he is playing.

So in other words we need to replace him with a young D -man with more upsde than him...... seems doable to me if we are trading guys at the deadline for prospects instead of picks. Long and short term benefits as well.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Then when you look at the stats deeper its shows how sheltered Russell and Wideman have been, and how it has been Brodie and Butler that played the hard minutes when Gio was hurt.

Offensive Zone Start % / Finish %

Butler: 40.1% / 47% (5th Lowest Offensive Zone Start % in the League)
Brodie: 36.4% / 49% (Lowest Offensive Zone Start % in the League)
Wideman: 61.6% / 51%
Russell: 56.2% / 52.6%

What is alarming after looking at these stats is how bad Wideman has been for a $5 million dollar d-man. Moon is probably on to something when he talks about how bad Wideman is. The guy is sheltered as much as possible and still isn't doing a great job.

Russell has been good in his sheltered role though, and Brodie has been a machine is his shutdown role. Keeping his head way above water even though he has been put in really tough spots.

Russell and Wideman are not sheltered. They're being relied upon in offensive zone starts because they bring offense, especially as a pairing. They have good shots and good offensive instincts.

Brodie is possibly our best defenseman in getting the puck up the ice, which makes him a good guy to use in defensive zone starts.

As to Wideman; the difference between start to finish looks bad because of the really high number of offensive zone starts, but finishing 51% in the offensive zone is really not bad on a team like this.


Now about Butler and why the coaches like him: he always tries. You can't blame him for not trying, and he doesn't seem like he ever complains either. Those are qualities that coaches in general love. He also blocks shots, which both Hartley and Sutter appreciate highly.

Sutter had a habit of rewarding players for playing his way, not for success, and was always preaching about effort. So it's rather easy to see why Butler got a lot of icetime, easily more than he deserved.

Hartley also wants effort (like all coaches), but it's also important on a team like this to reward guys that play their role without complaining, always give it their best and don't get too down if they fail, but will give the exact same effort next time. Again, this is Butler for you.

Hartley however is playing Butler more to his strengths; bottom pairing shutdown guy. And let's be honest; our D-men are generally not much better than Butler in our own zone, so it's not like playing Butler is a huge handicap, and it lets our other defensemen with more time to play offense.

I would guess that if we ever get all of Wideman, Russell, Giordano, Brodie and Smid healthy at once, Butler is the guy that loses most in icetime.

He's the 6th guy on a generally bad defense, who probably owns his career to being the kind of personality the coaches favour.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Itse

He's the 6th guy on a generally bad defense, who probably owns his career to being the kind of personality the coaches favour.

LOL awesome. So now we are assuming his sunny personality is the reason he's playing in the NHL. This thread is sinking to all time low depths for CP. I cannot wait to see the next post of brilliant information and insight as it just gets better and better.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The stats show that he is no worse in his own end then our other d-men and that he is average defensively, the issue comes back to how little offense gets generated with him on the ice.

And it's a HUGE issue in today's NHL where puck possession is the favoured way to play and where puck-moving defensemen are highly valued. It's not just about a defenseman's ability to defend his own end, it's about a defenseman's ability to quickly and efficiently move the puck up the ice. So the stats suggest that Butler is a bad and ineffective defenseman.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But by the same token, because Butler is what he is— a marginal bottom-pairing defenseman on a bad defensive team—it makes little sense to scape goat him for things that are much larger team issues. Namely, that his replacement will not solve the sorts of problems that people have been complaining about here. As I said earlier, swapping out a bottom pairing defenseman for another bottom pairing defenseman is most likely to have a negligible effect on the Flames's fortunes in the short term, and it is highly debatable whether such an action presents any long-term benefits.

You are totally downplaying just how detrimental Butler can be to this team. Like you said, Butler is a marginal bottom-pairing defenseman, yet he is averaging over 20 minutes a game. Defensemen are often rated by how well they can handle their minutes and there is a huge perceived difference between a bottom pairing defenseman and a top 4 defenseman. Why? Because a good bottom pairing defenseman might be exceptional in playing 12-16 minutes a game but once you get him to play 20+ minutes a game his game can deteriorate to terrible levels rather quickly.

And why assume that Butler will only be swapped for another bottom pairing defenseman? The Flames can use another legitimate top 4 defenseman and can afford it. There's nothing preventing the Flames from making a serious upgrade on defense.

[gunnner]

This thread has carried on far too long. Butler could be the worst D-man in the NHL, would clear waivers in less than 30 seconds, and will be playing in Europe next year. Guaranteed. End of thread.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

LOL awesome. So now we are assuming his sunny personality is the reason he's playing in the NHL. This thread is sinking to all time low depths for CP. I cannot wait to see the next post of brilliant information and insight as it just gets better and better.

It's funny how condescending someone can be, while simultaneously showing severe issues with basic reading comprehension and terrible manners. And of course, not contributing anything himself.

[united]

SuperMatt18: Great work so far.

Another aspect of analysis that has been posted many times around the Internet, but not yet in this thread, is called With or Without You (WOWY). It looks at how a player's teammates perform when they are on the ice together and when they aren't. We can do that with Brodie and Butler:

Taken from http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/, here is a list of players who have played > 50 minutes at 5-on-5 with Brodie or Butler this season and how they fared with and without them as measured by attempted shots % ("Corsi" %). Players are listed in descending order by 5-on-5 ice time with Brodie or Butler.



11/15 players saw their attempted shot % increase with Brodie and 6 of them had an increase greater than 5% with Brodie. Of the 4 who are worse with Brodie, only 1 had a decrease greater than 5%, and the other 3 decreased less than 2.2%.

13/17 players saw their attempted shot % decrease with Butler and 6 of them had a decrease greater than 5% with Butler. Of the 4 who are better with Butler, 0 had an increase greater than 5%, and 3 increased less than 2.6%.


Once again this shows just how good Brodie is, and how poor Butler is. Most players see their numbers increase with Brodie on the ice despite Brodie's difficult zone starts and tough competition. On the other hand, most players perform worse with Butler on the ice and while Butler also has tough zone starts, he plays just average competition. In fact, I would go as far as to say that this season, Brodie has made Butler look considerably better than he is.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FAN

...why assume that Butler will only be swapped for another bottom pairing defenseman? The Flames can use another legitimate top 4 defenseman and can afford it. There's nothing preventing the Flames from making a serious upgrade on defense.

Nothing except the availability and cost of acquiring another legitimate top-four defenseman. Hence the reason players like Butler still play in the NHL.

[codynw]

The Flames have the cap space to get an elite #1 center, there's nothing stopping them!

[timbit]

Originally Posted by codynw

The Flames have the cap space to get an elite #1 center, there's nothing stopping them!

Assuming that you are serious....the acquisition cost of a #1 center is astronomical. That is what is stopping them.

[neo45]

I actually think the Flames defense is the best thing the team has right now, especially looking towards next year. Smith and Butler are on expiring contracts, and SOB might ne dumped/bought. Assuming Russell is re-signed:

Gio - Brodie
Smid - Wideman
Russell - ______
With guys like Billins, Sieloff, Wotherspoon etc for depth


One trade or FA acquisition of a decent dman and that is a good, well balanced back end that can move the puck and contribute offensively. Obviously a guy like Girardi hitting free agency is a long shot at best but he could really solidify the position

[BACKCHECK!!!]

nm

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Nothing except the availability and cost of acquiring another legitimate top-four defenseman. Hence the reason players like Butler still play in the NHL.

I'm not arguing that Butler shouldn't on an NHL roster, he just shouldn't be playing 20+ minutes a game. And since he is playing 20+ minutes on this team, I don't understand why you think that replacing Butler with a better defenseman would have a negligible effect. You don't think having a better defenseman logging 20+ minutes a game will have an impact?

And you don't have to replace Butler with a legitimate top 4 defenseman. You can replace him with another Kris Russell or Ladislav Smid type defensemen.

Like I said, I think you are totally downplaying just how detrimental Butler can be to this team.

[JonDuke]

Butler scores in OT.

Cue the "I love Butler" posts...

[darthma]

Originally Posted by JonDuke

Butler scores in OT.

Cue the "I love Butler" posts...

I love Butler. his Corsi is great.

[van fan down by river]

Butler is awesome. He is the best thing for the rebuild because he will help the flames lose more games then he will help them win.

[Mister Yamoto]

How many more brutal giveaways does Butler have left until he is held accountable?

My guess is 1.