[Trade] Andersson (50% retained) to Vegas for 27 1st, cond 28 2nd, Whitecloud, Wiebe

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

There's a good chance Vegas will end up being one of the top teams, so it's essentially a 2nd round pick, it's not a complicated concept. Is there much difference between the 28th overall pick and the 34th overall pick? No.

No it's not "essentially" a 2nd round pick. It's a 1st, full stop.

We have historical data available from trades involving just draft picks that suggests the 28th overall pick is roughly equivalent to the the 40th, and 49th picks combined. That's the value of two middle round seconds in itself. You are then also completely ignoring the NHL player we acquired (and the value he holds), and the prospect that our amateur scouts targeted.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The return itself is fine.

But I can see why some in that group (probably not Rhett44), would vote Face plant.

Conroy was able to salvage it a bit, but the reality is by not moving sooner (sometime between the 2024 draft and 2025 trade deadline), Conroy backed himself into a corner again where the player held all the power.

And I think some do see that as a face plant regardless of the return he was able to salvage in this case, just the optics of potential trades that were turned down that were seen as better value, and the fact it's Vegas again were going to have some leaning that way.

He knows it’s a face plant because they had a better offer on the table last year at the deadline that the Edwards School of Business rejected because he hates the Leafs & TreeLiving.

[AC]

https://twitter.com/user/status/2013711105072205954

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

There's a good chance Vegas will end up being one of the top teams, so it's essentially a 2nd round pick, it's not a complicated concept. Is there much difference between the 28th overall pick and the 34th overall pick? No.

Pretty much every team that would want Andersson has picks in that range. Dallas would be picking after Vegas at the moment, so would Detroit.

[RedHawk12]

At the end of the day, I think what some posters mean when they say that the 1st is essentially a 2nd, is that it's a late first and not a mid first.

Statistically, the later you draft, the less of a chance the player turns into anything. That's reality.

We have been drafting well, so maybe Conroy turns the 1st into something good like Gridin or Potter. Still, 15th OA is better than 30th OA. That's not really up for debate.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by RedHawk12

At the end of the day, I think what some posters mean when they say that the 1st is essentially a 2nd, is that it's a late first and not a mid first.

Statistically, the later you draft, the less of a chance the player turns into anything. That's reality.

We have been drafting well, so maybe Conroy turns the 1st into something good like Gridin or Potter. Still, 15th OA is better than 30th OA. That's not really up for debate.

Sure but how many 15 overalls get traded for rentals at the deadline?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Sure but how many 15 overalls get traded for rentals at the deadline?

The only team at that level who was rumored to be interested was SJ and they didn't want a rental. The next lowest I heard of is Boston and they would pick 22nd if the draft was today.

[RedHawk12]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Sure but how many 15 overalls get traded for rentals at the deadline?

You're right, but then you get into a completely different debate of whether we should have traded Andersson earlier when he had term, or in the summer. 15th OA picks are available then, see Markstrom.

And maybe that's the main point those posters are trying to make. Could we have gotten a better pick, instead of waiting for him to become a rental and end up with a late 1st (and 2nd and Whitecloud).

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by RedHawk12

You're right, but then you get into a completely different debate of whether we should have traded Andersson earlier when he had term, or in the summer. 15th OA picks are available then, see Markstrom.

The pick from the Markstrom trade was actually 18th, and it was only as high as that because Jersey screwed up. They thought he would make a bigger difference than that, and that they wouldn't miss Bahl. Wrong on both counts.

Usually, teams aren't trading their 1st in a given season unless they're pretty confident they will be contending that year. Of course sometimes they get it wrong, but it's a fairly long shot.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by RedHawk12

You're right, but then you get into a completely different debate of whether we should have traded Andersson earlier when he had term, or in the summer. 15th OA picks are available then, see Markstrom.

And maybe that's the main point those posters are trying to make. Could we have gotten a better pick, instead of waiting for him to become a rental and end up with a late 1st (and 2nd and Whitecloud).

Have that debate instead of calling a late 1st a 2nd then. Summer 2024 very well might have been the best time to trade him. They probably could have got the same return as Carlo did but he was injured and they were in the hunt so no point in fretting about it now.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by RedHawk12

At the end of the day, I think what some posters mean when they say that the 1st is essentially a 2nd, is that it's a late first and not a mid first.

Statistically, the later you draft, the less of a chance the player turns into anything. That's reality.

We have been drafting well, so maybe Conroy turns the 1st into something good like Gridin or Potter. Still, 15th OA is better than 30th OA. That's not really up for debate.

Right, but all of the teams you would be trading with would be sending back a late first. Unless they sent back a second, in which case it would be a late second. So regardless of where the pick is in the round, there's still a substantial difference (32 picks) between a late first and the alternative of a late second. So while a very late first may not be much different from a very early second (although it is if the player you want was taken one spot earlier), you're never in a situation where you might have got an early second instead of a late first in exchange for the same asset. You know who might have an early second to trade? The teams in the draft lottery, who aren't generally trading picks away, unless it's to move up in the draft.

[RedHawk12]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

The pick from the Markstrom trade was actually 18th, and it was only as high as that because Jersey screwed up. They thought he would make a bigger difference than that, and that they wouldn't miss Bahl. Wrong on both counts.

Usually, teams aren't trading their 1st in a given season unless they're pretty confident they will be contending that year. Of course sometimes they get it wrong, but it's a fairly long shot.

But that exactly the point though! Trade him in the summer and you might get a team who thinks they're going to be good end up giving up way more than they anticipated, vs trading him as a rental to a contender who knows their pick is going to be low.

Anyway, I'm not actually looking to debate when we should have traded him. I was just replying to the 1st is a 1st, not a 2nd thing. While technically true, that's really splitting hairs and missing the point of what's being argued, imo.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by RedHawk12

At the end of the day, I think what some posters mean when they say that the 1st is essentially a 2nd, is that it's a late first and not a mid first.

So, an early 2nd round pick is essentially a first round pick then?

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by RedHawk12

At the end of the day, I think what some posters mean when they say that the 1st is essentially a 2nd, is that it's a late first and not a mid first.

Statistically, the later you draft, the less of a chance the player turns into anything. That's reality.

We have been drafting well, so maybe Conroy turns the 1st into something good like Gridin or Potter. Still, 15th OA is better than 30th OA. That's not really up for debate.

True.
It is also true that neither of those are 2nd round picks.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by RedHawk12

But that exactly the point though! Trade him in the summer and you might get a team who thinks they're going to be good end up giving up way more than they anticipated, vs trading him as a rental to a contender who knows their pick is going to be low.

Trade a guy in the summer and you're not trading to a contender looking for the final piece to put them over the top. Nobody knows that far in advance that they will need just one piece, or which position they will be most in need of. A contender gearing up near the deadline is the ultimate motivated buyer.

Anyway, I'm not actually looking to debate when we should have traded him. I was just replying to the 1st is a 1st, not a 2nd thing. While technically true, that's really splitting hairs and missing the point of what's being argued, imo.

It isn't splitting hairs, it's the absolute truth. If you trade for a 1st, the latest it can possibly be is 32nd overall, and it will most likely be earlier. If you trade for a 2nd, the earliest it can possibly be is 33rd overall, and it will most likely be later.

Can you pick either the team that will finish last overall next year, or the team that will win the Stanley Cup? Those are the teams that will hold picks 33 and 32. If you can't pick them, you can't say a GM traded for them on purpose.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

So, an early 2nd round pick is essentially a first round pick then?

Not if the Flames get one in a trade then it will be essentially a 3rd

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

So, an early 2nd round pick is essentially a first round pick then?

Yup! Which means that essentially, an early 2nd is earlier than a late 1st!

New Math again.

Originally Posted by Bonded

Not if the Flames get one in a trade then it will be essentially a 3rd

And they will waste it by drafting a guy who's essentially 40!

[musth]

LOL you guys saying that a late first is the same as an early second.

Semantics!

If they're drafted in the first round, its the first round, if its the second, its the second.

I think fans are the only ones that think like this!

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Spurly

Except it’s a first, and second. That could be 2 firsts, and if Zack is traded, could be 3 fists, and a prospect. I don’t see any downside to this trade.

I don’t get your presumption, that a late first is a second. Spin it how ever you want I guess, but a first is a first.

It's funny how much rarer it is to hear the "second is a first".

[musth]

Originally Posted by AC

https://twitter.com/user/status/2013711105072205954

Wow. i liked him previously, but I think that this may be a key to this deal going forward!

I think this fella has his head on straight, and I'd be happy to keep him and move along someone else, but as it was suggested above, Weegar can go to the left side and I think all is well. Was Weeger playing the left the last few years?