2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Psytic

I wouldn’t be surprised if they have data that shows this team wouldn’t survive a long term rebuild. Maybe we aren’t giving the owners enough credit for why they refuse to ever do one. Starting to think there’s more to it than just being stubborn. Flames fandom compared to the Oilers is very minimal sadly.

The owners just got a billion dollar arena almost entirely paid for by the taxpayer.

Wouldn't survive? Where are they going to go?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'd add to that that I think he is likely a little (or a lot) surprised that the team he iced for 24/25 was as good as it ended up being.

I think they built the team for a bottom ten finish and it just didn't happen.

If they had a goal of make the playoffs he would have kept Markstrom to work with Wolf, and not left $20M in cap space unutilized.

Yeah, I couldn’t remember the thread title but CP thought it was a bottom ten team as well.

[Steve's Stick]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I understand wanting to pick high, I really do.
But the tank group seems to think in order to do so we have to get rid of every veteran and then some even think we need to get rid of Wolf... just to TANK.

Can it not be a bit of both? It doesn't need to be a complete bare bones sell everything, in fact no team ever really does that to start a season. We need a balance, we need to have an identity and understand when our window will be and Craig has that. He's said multiple times that they project to have a GOOD team by the time the new arena opens and that's their long term vision.

For now they stay competitive and try and promote from within.
Of course he's said they'll want to watch for young guys who fit the window via trade and then any big star UFA that may make sense *Cough Makar* cough.

I think he's stuck to the plan he's been very transparent about.
But somehow its just not good enough (or bad enough in this case) but NO team ever just sheds every player over 25 and fills their roster with prospects and young guys.

Thank you. I've newly signed-up to this board, but I've reading the argument now for years and you have always been the voice of reason -

My problem is the full tank arguments do not account for material factors:

(1) they do not consider (or discount) the factor that you are dealing with human actors - players have characters, some are good, some are not; teams have coaching and development, some are good, some are not, etc.

(2) they misunderstand the value of draft picks - a high pick increases your likelihood of finding a valuable player, but it is not exclusive (the comment that you cannot win without a top 5 pick, is case in point - and it is factually incorrect, Vegas won recently without a top 5 pick).

(3) because of these errors, they assume that because something has been unlikely (or is deemed unlikely) or has not occurred in the past, then it will not work in the future.

Someone above said that culture is top-down - this is true in a way, but the top needs to find the right people who then develop the culture at their level and below - the right people in the right places and trusting those right people to do their job is how a good organization is formed.

The current direction of the Flames appears to understand this.

Moreover, the tank position does not even appreciate where the Flames are at - we already have two potentially elite players (Wolf and Parekh).

Yes, it would be nice to have a top 6 center, but it's not definite we don't - Zary shows glimpses of that potential; Honzek is a big guy who missed a year of development - if he takes a big step forward (which is not uncommon for players with that history/make-up), he could be that guy. Moreover, you don't need a 100+ point guy as your center to win (eg Bergeron, Barkov, Kopitar).

I do think the Flames need to find a game-breaking forward- and by that I mean one of those guys who can shift the flow of a game, create chances out of nothing, etc. - I don't care if he's a center or winger, but we need someone who can do that. Generally, we need more top 6 skill.

The odds of this would be greater with a high pick, but there's usually a Kucherov or Kaprizov or Gaudreau somewhere beyond the first round and it's not a lottery - good scouts will find him, good management will draft him.

The tank people should look to Buffalo - that is what the result would be. Chicago is trending in that direction. A year from now we could be looking at Anaheim and San Jose and asking why their efforts to take the next step did not pan-out.

I remember the Young Guns era - even with Iggy, things were not great - it took Iggy and Sutter and Kipper to reset the culture.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by flambers

While, I have always thought the Flames were never going to re-build, It is a quick "re-tool". That's the Flames plan.

Having the core of aging players (Kadar, Huberdeau, Backlund, Coleman, Andersson, Weegar, etc) are likely to keep the Flames in the wild card race,

Key question is how do they take the next step? Getting them as a playoff contender year in and year out?

Flames likely have 1 blue chip prospect in their system currently,

Makar thing, in my opinion, will never happen.

I do agree with you. I would love to see Kadri, Coleman and Rasmus traded for mainly draft picks. I would still probably add a young dman to play in the top 4, play with Parekh, Weegar and Bahl. Someone with upside. IMO that is the best way to move forward.

But if that doesn't happen this off season, at some point the prospects will force Conroy's hand and this team will be very young. Or they don't progress and this team ages out and we are at the bottom in a few years.

Either way, hopefully Conroy sticks with it until we are truly ready to win. To me that is the key, whether he picks my #1 plan or not and whether thsi team is ready for the new arena or not.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Steve's Stick

T

(2) they misunderstand the value of draft picks - a high pick increases your likelihood of finding a valuable player, but it is not exclusive (the comment that you cannot win without a top 5 pick, is case in point - and it is factually incorrect, Vegas won recently without a top 5 pick).

Vegas actually had 3 players who were top 5 picks, Eichel, Hanifin and Pietrangelo.

Now they weren't Vegas' picks, but Vegas was such a destination that they obtain these players.

[ColossusXIII]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The biggest thing is that drafting high does help you build a winner, there is no denying that, but it also doesn't guarantee anything...

Thanks for this analysis!

From your data, the 8 teams without multiple top 5 picks making an impact on their roster won 4 cups, so that path averaged to 0.5 cups per team.

The 23 teams with 2 or more top impactful picks won 16 cups (including this year), averaging 0.7 cups per team, 40% more than the first group.

If you make the cutoff 3 top picks it gets even more pronounced: 18 teams and 15 cups = 0.83 cups per team, 66% more than the first group.

That really shows that while drafting high can absolutely fail and we could very well become the next Buffalo, not drafting high appears to be the even riskier strategy.

Now how we actually do draft that high I don't know, I do believe management thought we were doing that this year going into the season. I don't see it getting any easier as time goes on if they continue to build targeting the opening of the arena. Here's hoping Conroy and the scouts can pull off another great draft and we can end up on the right side of the 0.5 cups per team over the next 20 years.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Vegas actually had 3 players who were top 5 picks, Eichel, Hanifin and Pietrangelo.

Now they weren't Vegas' picks, but Vegas was such a destination that they obtain these players.

Flames have a 3OA, a 7 OA and a couple more in the top half of round one. Two seasons ago they also had two other 5 OAs on the roster.

[dino7c]

Wolf and ZP are top 5 pick players IMO

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I understand wanting to pick high, I really do.
But the tank group seems to think in order to do so we have to get rid of every veteran and then some even think we need to get rid of Wolf... just to TANK.

Can it not be a bit of both? It doesn't need to be a complete bare bones sell everything, in fact no team ever really does that to start a season. We need a balance, we need to have an identity and understand when our window will be and Craig has that. He's said multiple times that they project to have a GOOD team by the time the new arena opens and that's their long term vision.

For now they stay competitive and try and promote from within.
Of course he's said they'll want to watch for young guys who fit the window via trade and then any big star UFA that may make sense *Cough Makar* cough.

I think he's stuck to the plan he's been very transparent about.
But somehow its just not good enough (or bad enough in this case) but NO team ever just sheds every player over 25 and fills their roster with prospects and young guys.

Problem is you don't get to just choose when your window is. The top-end of your roster defines when it is...and if you don't have a legitimately, near the top of the league top-end, you don't have a window.

So, how do you build a top of the league roster? You need the elite #1 centre, and top-end players around him...so until you have that elite #1 centre, you don't have a window.

...so far, Craig's plan does not include leveraging the tool (draft) to maximize the odds of finding that elite #1 centre (because where know where the succesful #1 centres come from in the draft from a % perspective), so how does Craig know when the window will be?

This balance you speak of resulted in the Flames with the 16th overall pick (which they forfeited in a predictable fashion given the balanced approach).

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'd add to that that I think he is likely a little (or a lot) surprised that the team he iced for 24/25 was as good as it ended up being.

I think they built the team for a bottom ten finish and it just didn't happen.

If they had a goal of make the playoffs he would have kept Markstrom to work with Wolf, and not left $20M in cap space unutilized.

I'd challenege you on 'it just didn't happen' component. The team was not good, it was mushy middle - Craig didn't put his finger on the scale to alter that at any point in the season. He chose this 'balanced' approach, and it had a direct result - mushy middle, forfeited pick (poor pick spot anyways).

Things he could have actively done to put his finger on the scale to help the long term:

1. Trade Rasmus Andersson (all signs point to that happening now...but why not last season? balance, short sighted approach on that season)
2. Trade depth pending UFAs for marginal returns such as Hanley and Vladar (more picks = better than less picks), and promote youth into meaningful games for experience

He's clearly on this path that the balanced approach is correct, and that culture is in fact not transmissable outside of the dressing room and results show what that approach brings - mushy middle. If he believed he was building a bottom-10 team, and then didn't adapt...that's not being a very attentive manager. If he was building his team to be a bottom-10 team, why spend futures to bring in middle-6 forwards to help now?

[Niemo]

Except 3OA and 7OA aren't in their primes. If we had 90pt Huberdeau and 30 yr old Kadri..... it would be easier pill to swallow. Kadri has been awesome but the fall off will be quick and his value goes from 2 1sts to negative in an offseason.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Wolf and ZP are top 5 pick players IMO

Parekh yes, disagree on Wolf. I've been on the Wolf train since he was drafted, still to this day I don't think I've ever seen better or faster legs on a goalie, he's elite but that doesn't discount the fact that goalies and projecting their careers are pure voodoo. He's earned the right to be an NHL starter so far, can't take that away but he will always be a 7th round pick and we should embrace that.

Parekh should have gone top 5 for sure.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I understand wanting to pick high, I really do.
But the tank group seems to think in order to do so we have to get rid of every veteran and then some even think we need to get rid of Wolf... just to TANK.

Can it not be a bit of both? It doesn't need to be a complete bare bones sell everything, in fact no team ever really does that to start a season. We need a balance, we need to have an identity and understand when our window will be and Craig has that. He's said multiple times that they project to have a GOOD team by the time the new arena opens and that's their long term vision.

For now they stay competitive and try and promote from within.
Of course he's said they'll want to watch for young guys who fit the window via trade and then any big star UFA that may make sense *Cough Makar* cough.

I think he's stuck to the plan he's been very transparent about.
But somehow its just not good enough (or bad enough in this case) but NO team ever just sheds every player over 25 and fills their roster with prospects and young guys.

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'd add to that that I think he is likely a little (or a lot) surprised that the team he iced for 24/25 was as good as it ended up being.

I think they built the team for a bottom ten finish and it just didn't happen.

If they had a goal of make the playoffs he would have kept Markstrom to work with Wolf, and not left $20M in cap space unutilized.

Thank you both for this!

Sadly it goes against the narrative of a couple of spam posters who revel in complaining....or perhaps one poster with multiple accounts

[Toast_Man]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Parekh yes, disagree on Wolf. I've been on the Wolf train since he was drafted, still to this day I don't think I've ever seen better or faster legs on a goalie, he's elite but that doesn't discount the fact that goalies and projecting their careers are pure voodoo. He's earned the right to be an NHL starter so far, can't take that away but he will always be a 7th round pick and we should embrace that.

Parekh should have gone top 5 for sure.

Can you name 5 players you'd take over Dustin Wolf from the 2019 draft?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Niemo

Except 3OA and 7OA aren't in their primes. If we had 90pt Huberdeau and 30 yr old Kadri..... it would be easier pill to swallow. Kadri has been awesome but the fall off will be quick and his value goes from 2 1sts to negative in an offseason.

Oh, I know. But the point is that just saying "high draft picks" is an incomplete answer.

[traptor]

I understand that they probably thought this was going to be a worse team then it was, and weren't necessarily trying to compete this year.

It doesn't mean that they can't keep churning over the roster though.
All the vets should be available for a solid offer at this point. It doesn't mean you have to sell all of them at once. But we have enough, they should be churning two over every year.


Rasmus and Coleman this summer.
Backlund at TDL if he wants to go, otherwise let the man retire a flame.
Kadri next year, and so on.


We will probably bring in some form of vet replacement anyways. E.g. Rasmus to the stars brings in Dumba as part of the package. You then flip him in a couple years if he still has value.


There should be a lifecycle and replacement plan for all these vets, and I'm optimistic that the team is smart enough to know that.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Toast_Man

Can you name 5 players you'd take over Dustin Wolf from the 2019 draft?

You want that answer with or without hindsight?

With hindsight I can name 4. Hughes, Seider, McMichael, Kakko.

Without, I'd have taken wolf with the the Josh Nodler pick.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by traptor

I understand that they probably thought this was going to be a worse team then it was, and weren't necessarily trying to compete this year.

It doesn't mean that they can't keep churning over the roster though.
All the vets should be available for a solid offer at this point. It doesn't mean you have to sell all of them at once. But we have enough, they should be churning two over every year.

Which is exactly what they’ve been doing. More so, in fact.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Vegas actually had 3 players who were top 5 picks, Eichel, Hanifin and Pietrangelo.

Now they weren't Vegas' picks, but Vegas was such a destination that they obtain these players.

Hanifin didn't win the cup- I don't think?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by traptor

I understand that they probably thought this was going to be a worse team then it was, and weren't necessarily trying to compete this year.

It doesn't mean that they can't keep churning over the roster though.
All the vets should be available for a solid offer at this point. It doesn't mean you have to sell all of them at once. But we have enough, they should be churning two over every year.


Rasmus and Coleman this summer.
Backlund at TDL if he wants to go, otherwise let the man retire a flame.
Kadri next year, and so on.


We will probably bring in some form of vet replacement anyways. E.g. Rasmus to the stars brings in Dumba as part of the package. You then flip him in a couple years if he still has value.


There should be a lifecycle and replacement plan for all these vets, and I'm optimistic that the team is smart enough to know that.

Rasmus before the season starts. Then a very large maybe on any other vet this season depending on where the team is at on the deadline. It'll either be none or more than one depending on the standings. And that's a fairly reasonable course of action for the Flames to take.

The better question is would the Flames add at the deadline of they were in a great standings position or would they ride it out with what they have??

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Toast_Man

Can you name 5 players you'd take over Dustin Wolf from the 2019 draft?

I would probably take all those ahead of Wolf, because he's a goalie:
Seider, Harley, Hughes, Boldy, Protas, Caufield.

I wouldn't draft them ahead of Wolf, but they might end up with a better career: McMicheal, Byram.