Calgary Civic Election Poll #3: The race heats up

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

He's a smart guy with no record. With that comes good (an outsider) and bad (no history of translating ideas at a price we can afford). I don't know why thats so offensive to his supporters.

Look at the guy's business and NPO experience, I'd wager he has more knowledge of policy implementation than McIver.

Barb is a different story, she has zero transferable experience. Reading news does not a mayor make.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I understand this CP poll is from a singular sample, with skewed results (internet savvy crowd).

Nenshi is, in all likelihood, in third place right now (and we all know it).

That said, he has a ton of momentum going into the final legs of the race, and just because four engineers in a car said they never heard of Nenshi, it doesn't represent the greater population.

It would be a terrible assumption to make that Dr. No or the news anchor woman are a lock. Nenshi is very much in the running.

I never said the "engineers in a car" represented the greater population. My point was more that the Calgarypuck forum poll isn't scientific either. I sincerely hope that Nenshi wins, and I think I talked at least one of those other engineers into switching their vote. My point was more that those of us who are internet savvy sometimes forget there's a whole wide world of people out there who get there news from the morning paper (or the CTV newscast!) and will are likely to vote based on that perspective.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I never said the "engineers in a car" represented the greater population. My point was more that the Calgarypuck forum poll isn't scientific either. I sincerely hope that Nenshi wins, and I think I talked at least one of those other engineers into switching their vote. My point was more that those of us who are internet savvy sometimes forget there's a whole wide world of people out there who get there news from the morning paper (or the CTV newscast!) and will are likely to vote based on that perspective.

This is the reason Nenshi needs to reach out to more traditional media types. He's got the internet locked up, but damn, McIver's still got a stronghold over the Calgary Sun readers (not that I would want to affiliate myself with them).

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Ducay

This is the reason Nenshi needs to reach out to more traditional media types. He's got the internet locked up, but damn, McIver's still got a stronghold over the Calgary Sun readers (not that I would want to affiliate myself with them).

And old people, he's the kind of guy seniors LOVE.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I'm not a McIver supporter, but the fact is that he knows the issues. He has a particular position and when he is asked a question about a particular issue he speaks about it and articulates his position. That might seem like a minor factor, but it probably chops about half of the mayoralty race from the picture right away.

He talks about things like accountability and fiscal conservatism. People all know him as a fiscal conservative (whether its true or not, is another story). He talks about the recycling program and the $8/month people pay for this and that the city put independent businessman out of business through its implementation. I think its a fantastic program, but he does have a stance and articulates that stance.

Fair enough. By the way, good post.

For me, after hearing how bad he embarassed the city of Calgary on his knowledge of P3's at a conference, it just solidified to me that he's not what our town needs as a leader. He was arrogant and refused to admit he knew nothing on the subject, and still continued to lecture other, more knowledgeable people that were sitting there. International delegates were walking out of the room he was so bad.

Nenshi gives me the hope of someone who knows the issues, and knows the bigger picture. McIver might know the issues (I don't completely believe that, but still), but he doesn't have a bigger vision for the city. His fiscal conservative policies are great, but they're short term ways of thinking. Spending money to improve your city can be a good thing, if you know how to do it right. I believe Nenshi, given what he has said, recognizes this.

[JiriHrdina]

A lot of people believe that McIver would be the right guy - but for one term and one term only. The reason being he could turn the tide of what is perceived by many to be an overspending City Hall that is controlled too much by the bureaucrats instead of the elected officials.

But a lot of people leaning his way I talk to also are concerned that he lacks long-term vision and once he gets in the big seat, knowing Calgarians, he will remain there until he chooses not to run.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

knowing Calgarians, he will remain there until he chooses not to run.

When was the last time, if ever, that an incumbent mayor who ran for re-election lost?

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

When was the last time, if ever, that an incumbent mayor who ran for re-election lost?

I don't even know to be honest - I know that when Don Hartman took over after Klein gave up the seat he wasn't re-elected - but he was never really elected in the first place.

So I guess you have to go back before the Klein era. So we are talking 30+ years.

[frinkprof]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

When was the last time, if ever, that an incumbent mayor who ran for re-election lost?

I don't think it's happened in Calgary yet, but Vancouver did it in their last election. Speaking more broadly about the aldermanic campaigns, it wasn't all that common for incumbents to lose their seats, but it happened four times in the 2007 election.

Helene Larocque lost to Jim Stevenson in ward 3

Craig Burrows lost to Joe Connelly in ward 6

Madeline King lost to John Mar in ward 8

Barry Erskine lost to Brian Pincott in ward 11 (or did Erskine pull out of the race, I can't remember exactly)

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple or three incumbent aldermen to lose their seats this time around as well.

[troutman]

Mayors of Calgary:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_Calgary

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

And old people, he's the kind of guy seniors LOVE.

Can't underestimate the slightly racist seniors vote.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Nenshi is, in all likelihood, in third place right now (and we all know it).

I don't think that he is in third at all. The last legitimate poll (which was horrible as it was done the same day that Higgins announced) had him at less than 1%. Surely things have changed since then, and they have for a lot of candidates. Him moving to third though would mean a leap frog of both Kent Hehr and Bob Hawkesworth (and whoever else was in that less than 2% category).

I suppose that is possible, but I highly doubt it. I expect that he is soundly in 5th or worse at this stage. I don't say that out of malice or anything like that either. I just think that the average voter (which is really what matters here) has no idea who the guy is. People who follow politics might be extremely unimpressed with Higgins but there is a reason she polls so well. I had a woman tell me that she wasn't voting for me because she is voting for Barb Higgins! Pretty clearly with that kind of voter being relatively commonplace expecting that 20% of the voters know who Naheed is would be a minor miracle, never mind voting for him.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

I don't think it's happened in Calgary yet, but Vancouver did it in their last election. Speaking more broadly about the aldermanic campaigns, it wasn't all that common for incumbents to lose their seats, but it happened four times in the 2007 election.

Helene Larocque lost to Jim Stevenson in ward 3

Craig Burrows lost to Joe Connelly in ward 6

Madeline King lost to John Mar in ward 8

Barry Erskine lost to Brian Pincott in ward 11 (or did Erskine pull out of the race, I can't remember exactly)

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple or three incumbent aldermen to lose their seats this time around as well.

I think that Linda Fox-Mellway is done. I've talked to a few people in that riding and there is a general disdain for her it seems.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think that Linda Fox-Mellway is done. I've talked to a few people in that riding and there is a general disdain for her it seems.

Druh Farrell needs to go too...

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't think that he is in third at all. The last legitimate poll (which was horrible as it was done the same day that Higgins announced) had him at less than 1%. Surely things have changed since then, and they have for a lot of candidates. Him moving to third though would mean a leap frog of both Kent Hehr and Bob Hawkesworth (and whoever else was in that less than 2% category).

I suppose that is possible, but I highly doubt it. I expect that he is soundly in 5th or worse at this stage. I don't say that out of malice or anything like that either. I just think that the average voter (which is really what matters here) has no idea who the guy is. People who follow politics might be extremely unimpressed with Higgins but there is a reason she polls so well. I had a woman tell me that she wasn't voting for me because she is voting for Barb Higgins! Pretty clearly with that kind of voter being relatively commonplace expecting that 20% of the voters know who Naheed is would be a minor miracle, never mind voting for him.

I think you're going to be incredibly surprised then.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Dion

Druh Farrell needs to go too...

Are you saying that as someone who lives in her ward and isn't happy with the way she's represented you or someone from another ward who doesn't like her politics?

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think that Linda Fox-Mellway is done. I've talked to a few people in that riding and there is a general disdain for her it seems.

Disdain doesn't mean she'll lose....I mean, comeon, Rob Anders somehow manages to remain my MP......

[Dion]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Are you saying that as someone who lives in her ward and isn't happy with the way she's represented you or someone from another ward who doesn't like her politics?

Just someone who doesn't like her politics...

[frinkprof]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Are you saying that as someone who lives in her ward and isn't happy with the way she's represented you or someone from another ward who doesn't like her politics?

As far as I know, he lives in High River.

Interesting to get an outsider's point of view though I guess.

On that note, to exurban dwellers, are the races in your respective towns interesting at all?

[4X4]

Originally Posted by Dion

Just someone who doesn't like her politics...

Such as?