Calgary Civic Election Poll #3: The race heats up

[frinkprof]

I'm curious First Lady, if you would like to share, how much do campaign signs cost? Obviously it would depend on size, but I'm thinking of say a standard 24" X 36" lawn sign.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Political experience for Nenshi:

- Former President of the U of C Students Union (and believe me, this is a very political and bureaucratic job that has to answer to a number of boards).
- Policy design experience for the Alberta Government while working for his business called the Ascend Group
- Consulted to the United Nations on social issues and poverty
- Has served on numerous boards, including being the Chairman for the EPCOR Centre and helping other NPO's
- Has a Master in Public Policy from JFK School of Government, one of the finest schools of its type in the world.

Political Experience for Barb Higgins
- Covering City Hall issues as a journalist and a writer (mostly as a news anchor though).
- United Way Co-Chair.


I would say Nenshi has more experience as a politician and with political matters than Barb. Or at least would have a better understanding of them.

Seriously. Student's Union? Whoever gives away the best coffee mug wins the election.

As consultant and academic I've no doubt he's miles ahead of higgins (and everyone else) in terms of horsepower. But the world is full of smart guys who suck at executing.

In terms of having actually delivered anything, by my barometer he's not in the same league as Hehr, McIvor, and probably a couple others I dont know about.

Anyway I think those that support his ideas will like his credentials. For everyone else they might be underwhelming.

Has he costed any of his ideas out yet? Not meant as a shot. No one else has either and I appreciate it's a double edged sword of having actually said more than anyone else. Since this is campaign HQ I figure someone here will know

[Slava]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

My guess is Rick Bell.

I heard that he is consdering a run. If you were him would you make the signs say Rick "The Dinger" Bell?

I actually met him earlier this year (at Kent Hehrs AGM) and really like him now. I know that everyone on here seems to hate the guy, but he is really down to earth and I have a totally different view after the talk and discussion he gave. Until that point I didn't have a lot of time for the guy to be honest, but in person he was totally different than I expected.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by First Lady

If it is who I think it is, CP'ers are not going to like it.....LOL

So, which left wing candidate is it?

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Anyway I think those that support his ideas will like his credentials. For everyone else they might be underwhelming.

Well if the results on this poll in this thread are any indication, Nenshi has exactly what it takes to win the popular vote, and by no means has "underwhelming" credentials.

[Addick]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Seriously. Student's Union? Whoever gives away the best coffee mug wins the election.

There is more to that position than winning the election.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Well if the results on this poll in this thread are any indication, Nenshi has exactly what it takes to win the popular vote, and by no means has "underwhelming" credentials.

Yes, but this poll isn't an accurate indication at all. Nenshi may very well have a huge lead among the demographic of politically-informed, active internet users, but that's not going to be nearly enough to win the election.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

I'm curious First Lady, if you would like to share, how much do campaign signs cost? Obviously it would depend on size, but I'm thinking of say a standard 24" X 36" lawn sign.

Typical lawn sign is 16" X 24"

Costs vary greatly up to $5.20 or so per. Cost goes down the more you order.

I got a hell of deal on my lawn signs, competition is great out there.

Aldermanic campaign you are likely looking at needing 500+ lawn signs.

I also got 4' x 4' and some 4' X 8'. They range from $26.00 to $100.00

Number of colors and whether or not two-sided also impacts pricing.

[frinkprof]

Originally Posted by Slava

I heard that he is consdering a run. If you were him would you make the signs say Rick "The Dinger" Bell?

If I were Rick Bell, I would probably do myself and everyone a favour and off myself.

But seriously,

Originally Posted by Slava

I actually met him earlier this year (at Kent Hehrs AGM) and really like him now. I know that everyone on here seems to hate the guy, but he is really down to earth and I have a totally different view after the talk and discussion he gave. Until that point I didn't have a lot of time for the guy to be honest, but in person he was totally different than I expected.

Never met Bell, but I don't doubt that he is actually smart and probably an interesting person to talk to. His editorial column is projected from a persona and an approach that is probably detached from who he is in reality. I do have a problem with that persona/schtick because it is deliberately misleading, twisting facts or even making them up, and often an attempt to wag the dog.

The sad truth is that if Bell were to ever retire or soften up the Calgary Sun would just have someone take up that column space that is just as bad or worse.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Well if the results on this poll in this thread are any indication, Nenshi has exactly what it takes to win the popular vote, and by no means has "underwhelming" credentials.

Polls seem all over the place though. Higgin's original poll had her with a narrow lead over McIver, while some 3rd party polls had McIver with ~60% of the votes. Both had Nenshi as a distant 3rd option (Both had him in the 20% range I believe).

I don't think we can draw many conclusions from these.

BTW, I think I'm the only public McIver supporter here.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Well if the results on this poll in this thread are any indication, Nenshi has exactly what it takes to win the popular vote, and by no means has "underwhelming" credentials.

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Yes, but this poll isn't an accurate indication at all. Nenshi may very well have a huge lead among the demographic of politically-informed, active internet users, but that's not going to be nearly enough to win the election.

Exactly. If a "good" poll came out with results like we're seeing above I would say that about half of the candidates drop out the day after. By good poll I mean one with credible methodology and a representative cross section.

I could be totally wrong here, but I still think that Nenshi is below 5% popular support. Part of the fun of politics and discussing politics on a message board though is that you get to make these predictions and prognostications! If the real support is 65% or wherever this poll ends up I'm sure that it'll be thrown in my face here, and I'm fine with that!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Yes, but this poll isn't an accurate indication at all. Nenshi may very well have a huge lead among the demographic of politically-informed, active internet users, but that's not going to be nearly enough to win the election.

I did a straw poll of the coworkers I was riding in a vehicle with earlier this week. There were 4 other engineers, all of whom are older and make more than me. These are reasonably educated people.

None of them had heard of Nenshi, except for one guy who thought he recognized the name as one of the offbeat fringe candidates. They were all of the opinion the race is between McIvor and Barb Higgins.

Current votes were mostly for McIvor, on a "someone credible who isn't a talking head newscaster" rationale. One guy said his mom was voting Higgins, because she trusts her.

[burn_this_city]

I wish this poll wasnt anonymous so I could see who else is on the dark side.

[Muta]

Again, what positive has McIver done to get his support?

I'm not asking this in a condescending tone, I would just actually like to know.

[frinkprof]

Originally Posted by Muta

Again, what positive has McIver done to get his support?

I'm not asking this in a condescending tone, I would just actually like to know.

Yeah, I'm also interested in hearing someone articulate it.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

Yeah, I'm also interested in hearing someone articulate it.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it has something to do with McIver's:

a) Hatred of Bow River flow

b) Love of SE LRT

c) Love of Mustaches

[Ozy_Flame]

I understand this CP poll is from a singular sample, with skewed results (internet savvy crowd).

Nenshi is, in all likelihood, in third place right now (and we all know it).

That said, he has a ton of momentum going into the final legs of the race, and just because four engineers in a car said they never heard of Nenshi, it doesn't represent the greater population.

It would be a terrible assumption to make that Dr. No or the news anchor woman are a lock. Nenshi is very much in the running.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Muta

Again, what positive has McIver done to get his support?

This isn't why I'm voting for him, but he's known to be the alternative to Dave Bronconnier, who gained a bit of dislike because of what sounded like whining and demanding money from the Provincial government for all sorts of projects (I got this from what I've heard around the workplaces I've been in the last 3 years or so).

Now, I like McIver because of the way he gets into topics. He's really detailed. He's not the most vivid politically nor does he act the most excited, but I love the fact that he shows, sometimes unprepared, that he's done his homework, much more so than I've seen from Higgins or Nenshi.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Muta

Again, what positive has McIver done to get his support?

I'm not asking this in a condescending tone, I would just actually like to know.

Well I'm not a McIver supporter, but the fact is that he knows the issues. He has a particular position and when he is asked a question about a particular issue he speaks about it and articulates his position. That might seem like a minor factor, but it probably chops about half of the mayoralty race from the picture right away.

He talks about things like accountability and fiscal conservatism. People all know him as a fiscal conservative (whether its true or not, is another story). He talks about the recycling program and the $8/month people pay for this and that the city put independent businessman out of business through its implementation. I think its a fantastic program, but he does have a stance and articulates that stance.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Addick

There is more to that position than winning the election.

Clearly handing out all those coffee mugs in a post election glow.

Jokes aside I get it. As I know running the local community association or sitting on a volunteer board is also actual work. I do these things myself. I also know the limits of how transferable that is to the big leagues.

It'd be like saying a Midget coach has obvious applicability to being an NHL coach. Not that they are unrelated, but not close to the same either.

He's a smart guy with no record. With that comes good (an outsider) and bad (no history of translating ideas at a price we can afford). I don't know why thats so offensive to his supporters.