Quote:
Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle
Statistically, the only bottom pairing d-man that Bennett helped was Davidson…
Lucic-Ryan-Dube-Stone: +3
Lucic-Bennett-Dube-Stone: -2
Lucic-Ryan-Dube-Yelesin: even
Lucic-Bennett-Dube-Yelesin: -1
Lucic-Ryan-Dube-Kylington: +4
Lucic-Bennett-Dube-Kylington: even
Lucic-Ryan-Dube-Davidson: -1
Lucic-Bennett-Dube-Davidson: +1
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You posted a whole bunch of numbers, but they say little.
1) Icetime is not equal. An even in 12:28 minutes of icetime (w/ Kylington) can't be compared to 91:49.
2) The sample size for goal events is miniscule and ultimately useless. You're talking about events like when Dillon Dube threw a pizza up the middle of the ice to the other team, or when Yelesin's shot got blocked and the other team was off to the races on a breakaway. Things... outside the control of most skaters on the ice.
3) the specific stretch where the Bennett line was assembled was without Mark Giordano. This has a trickle down effect. Mike Stone was playing much tougher minutes in the latter sample than he was in the former sample. Stone was way in over his head. Andersson and Kylington were also separated.
4) The sample size for shot metrics is a lot closer to usable than the goal events. And they actually favour Bennett:
Lucic-Bennett-Dube
37:04
51.52% shot attempts
50.68% expected goals
56.76% scoring chances
Lucic-Ryan-Dube
269:34
48.59% shot attempts
50.81% expected goals
46.75% scoring chances
Lucic-Ryan-Dube w/o Giordano
210:37
46.15% shot attempts
46.91% expected goals
45.26% scoring chances
Lucic-Ryan-Dube w Giordano
58:57
56.25% shot attempts
65.06% expected goals
51.79% scoring chances
Yes, there's reason to think that line might be better with Bennett - his strength offsets Dube's lack thereof whereas Ryan and Dube form a physically weak pairing. Especially since we've yet to see how that line could do with Giordano.
And even
if the line
were better with Ryan there is more value to the team to develop and empower a young player than there is to put their eggs into the basket of a 33 year old. Instead we've moved him back to the 4th line left wing. It's myopic.
Quote:
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I’m not saying Bennett has been bad. He looked good and is a legitimate option at center with Lucic and Dube especially if Ryan isn't available. I'm just contending that going back to Ryan is a logical choice and not one that should be met consternation from fans because Bennett has somehow performed better on that line. The simple truth is he hasn't. Not by the eye test or statistically for me.
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Even if you want to operate on this logic,
most of the consternation is about Bennett on Jankowski's wing with a player like Rieder. There is no benefit to this.
But again, your goals-based analysis is severely limited to a small sample size.
must show all Flames games nationally when they play on Saturdays, Mondays, and Wednesdays !!!
