Federal Election Polling Thread

[GirlySports]

Yup Calgary-Confederation is a dead heat and Calgary Center Hehr is leading

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Slava

Things aren't looking good for the CPC in the latest Nanos poll: http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news...ticle26246364/

More detailed breakdown of the numbers and likely details for leadership choices in this other article




http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf

[PeteMoss]

If you go down to the province level, its interesting how divided they are. Most have runaway leaders:
Quebec and BC - NDP
Alberta, Sask, Manitoba - Conservative
Maritimes - Liberal

Ontario is starting to lean Liberal which would be the death knell for the Conservatives.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If you go down to the province level, its interesting how divided they are. Most have runaway leaders:
Quebec and BC - NDP

Not sure I'd call BC a runaway province for the NDP. In Nanos's breakdown it's the only region with intersecting lines making it more of a volitile situation then the others (and apart from Ontario it has the lowest differential between 1st and 2nd).

[Ducay]

Conservatives have run their course. I supported them over the last few elections, but they've got nothing left to give (especially Harper). Their regressive views on immigration, drugs, and crime are way past their expiration date. Time for a change

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Not sure I'd call BC a runaway province for the NDP. In Nanos's breakdown it's the only region with intersecting lines making it more of a volitile situation then the others (and apart from Ontario it has the lowest differential between 1st and 2nd).

Yeah, I read somewhere that the election could possibly be decided by BC. That would be a real change as previously the election is over before our polls close.

[Blaster86]

You mean my vote will matter and the election won't have been decided before I get off work?!

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

More detailed breakdown of the numbers and likely details for leadership choices in this other article




http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf

Liberals appear to be the 2nd choice of everyone according to the link. We could potentially see some strategic voting that puts the liberals in power.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

Liberals appear to be the 2nd choice of everyone according to the link. We could potentially see some strategic voting that puts the liberals in power.

This could be a devastating election for the CPC. I have a lot of family members who have only ever voted Conservative in national elections, but now will be voting Liberal as an anti-NDP measure. This could become a runaway train as the CPC numbers dip and more conservative-only voters switch to a strategic vote (or not vote at all) if they think that Harper has no chance

[FlameOn]

Nanos research now has the LPC in the lead in the most recent poll
Numbers are LPC 32.5, NDP 31.2 and CPC dropping 25.9

Ipos poll is also up. Shows a slightly different race between the LPC and NDP
Numbers are NDP 34, LPC 30 and CPC 29

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=6976

[Frequitude]

I have found myself drifting from blue to red these past few days...

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

This could be a devastating election for the CPC. I have a lot of family members who have only ever voted Conservative in national elections, but now will be voting Liberal as an anti-NDP measure. This could become a runaway train as the CPC numbers dip and more conservative-only voters switch to a strategic vote (or not vote at all) if they think that Harper has no chance

I wonder if this is mainly an Alberta thing (not sure where you actually live). The only time I've ever heard of strategic voting around here is against the Conservatives.

Also seems weird in the sense that at least budget wise the NDP are more aligned with the Conservatives than the Liberals.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

This could be a devastating election for the CPC. I have a lot of family members who have only ever voted Conservative in national elections, but now will be voting Liberal as an anti-NDP measure. This could become a runaway train as the CPC numbers dip and more conservative-only voters switch to a strategic vote (or not vote at all) if they think that Harper has no chance

All the current Alberta seat projections (except some around the Edmonton area) look to be safely in CPC hands. I don't think there will be enough strategic votes to tip the balance towards the LPC, especially for a Trudeau here... though if it amounts to just a few seat difference that may be the difference maker.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

All the current Alberta seat projections (except some around the Edmonton area) look to be safely in CPC hands.

Which projections? 308 has Centre and Skyview in Red with Confederation a virtual coin toss.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Also seems weird in the sense that at least budget wise the NDP are more aligned with the Conservatives than the Liberals.

... I highly doubt that.

Sure they may both be pledging balanced budgets sooner rather then later (fat chance without fudging the numbers or renegaging on campaign promises I figure) but I would be shocked if they were in any sort of agreement on spending allotments. The budget is less about how much is spent then what it is spent on.

[Knut]

Some of the people i know that are the most hard core conservative voters are really taking strong looks at the liberals.

I think Kent Hehr is going to win, but there may be a few more surprises.

Having some other liberal seats in Alberta will go along way to support our resource industry.

[c.t.ner]

Although it doesn't include updates from today 308 looks like it has 7 Alberta seats going to either the NDP/Liberals. Edmonton seems to be staying NDP orange after the provincial election, as well as Lethbridge. Edmonton Millwoods and Riverbend are also a toss-up. Calgary Centre and Skyview both appear to be going Liberal red. If the polls continue their direction, we may see Calgary Confederation and Calgary Forrest Lawn move towards the Liberals.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

[littlereddevil]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I made fun of 308 during the provincial election, because I thought he was out to lunch... until he was pretty dead on with his calls.

I can't see Liepert losing as he has a name (by beating Anders and also his time in the Alberta Government), but I can see Forrest Lawn shifting to the Liberals if things keep going the way they are. Calgary-Confederation is another Calgary seat to watch as it looks like that is a close race between the Liberals and conservatives.

Also worth noting. I don't believe the NDP have named a candidate for Signal Hill yet, and 308 projects 18% would support them. If those voters switch over to Liberals, the Liberals may just take the seat.

It's tough to say though. This is my riding and it's historically been a Conservative or nothing riding. After all, we kept voting Anders back in

[rubecube]

We've been talking about strategic voting and what exactly is the path to victory for the Liberals, so I did a quick perusing of 308's riding projections, which are admittedly not completely accurate and I identified about 22 seats where either the NDP or Conservatives were leading by a slim margin and the Liberals were a close enough second that if 1/4 of the CPC voters switched to the Liberals, they would then win that riding. Based on the overall seat projections, the Liberals would only need to win half of those ridings to form a minority government, but they really don't have any path to a majority government.

Regionally they breakdown like this:

Ridings where the NDP are leading, Liberals close second:

BC - 4
AB - 1
MB - 1
ON - 1
QC - 1
NB - 1
NS - 1

Total: 10

Ridings where the CPC are leading, Liberals close second:

BC - 2
AB - 1
MB - 1
ON - 7
NB - 1

[killer_carlson]

For what it is worth, direct from an NDP candidate's mouth, a lot of doors are:

Anyone but Harper; and
Anyone but Trudeau

So the strategic voting profile might turn a bunch of votes to the NDP.

Personally, i'm much more concerned about Trudeau than I am about Mulclair. Really hope the Liberals get decimated and replace Trudeau so they can be an alternative for my vote.