Federal Election Polling Thread

[GirlySports]

Harper in 3rd place but having the balance of power in a minority govt would be really weird

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Harper in 3rd place but having the balance of power in a minority govt would be really weird

We're going off-topic here, but the third party only gets to be kingmaker if first and second allow it.

[corporatejay]

If Harper doesn't get a majority, he's done.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

If Harper doesn't get a majority, he's done.

So he's done then because there is absolutely no way that's going to happen.

I also see the NDP/Liberals forming a coalition government if one doesn't win the majority.

[rubecube]

Nm

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

So he's done then because there is absolutely no way that's going to happen.

I also see the NDP/Liberals forming a coalition government if one doesn't win the majority.

It would really depend on the popular vote split at that point. I'm not an expert on this, but my Canadian Constitution prof said that the popular vote would need to either show the Conservatives in second place or lower or be within a percentage point if they're in first for a coalition to work without a major constitutional convention issue.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I agree.

Trudeau is drawing a line in the sand. He's going with the Wynne model of running deficits at least until 2019 so that Canadians can get important stuff, like factories and infrastructure. He just pledged 20B for transit over the next 10 years. Harper will argue that voting Liberal is basically voting Kathleen Wynne into Ottawa. Trudeau will argue that Wynne has done well for Ontario with her recent majority win.

He will also drive a bigger wedge between Harper and Mulcair saying Harper will give you nothing to balance the budget and Mulcair will tax you do death to balance the budget. Is balancing the budget the be all and end all is his argument. He's playing the honest politician role casting the others as snakes and it seems to be working.

I think in a weird way saying he's going to run deficits helps Trudeau. Almost makes him seem like the honest guy versus the others who are making spending promises but still saying they are going to balance the budget.

It'll be interesting to see if anything changes when the full economic platforms come out if anything changes.

[EldrickOnIce]

Interesting that there is precedence in Canada for the governing party to choose to remain in power despite having less seats than an opposition party.
From Wikipedia, 1925 election

The election resulted in the incumbent Liberal government of Mackenzie King being reduced to 101 seats in the House of Commons, while the opposition Conservatives actually took the most seats (116). All others won 26 seats, 24 of them won by the Progressives. King chose to carry on in government and face the new Parliament seeking its confidence.

Would Harper look to Trudeau to back him in a confidence vote were the NDP to elect a few more members, but not have a majority?

I doubt it would fly today... but interesting for discussion purposes.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I could see an evacuation of conservative support sort of like what happened last time to the Liberals and if that's the case a majority could happen.

IT won't be that dramatic. There are just too many "Only vote Conservatives" in Canada.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Interesting that there is precedence in Canada for the governing party to choose to remain in power despite having less seats than an opposition party.
From Wikipedia, 1925 election


Would Harper look to Trudeau to back him in a confidence vote were the NDP to elect a few more members, but not have a majority?

I doubt it would fly today... but interesting for discussion purposes.

That's weird. I didn't realize that Canada's parliamentary system even allowed for that. I think doing something like that would devastate both the CPC and the Liberals in the eyes of many Canadians. It seems like a pretty slimy way to take power after a (more or less) democratic election. I know I would lose respect for both parties if they did that.

I could take a true coalition government just to prevent another election right away, but only if one of the parties already had the most seats.

[Vulcan]

What's also weird is that since the NDP and the CPC both champion a balanced budget, they seem to be the most likely in a vote, to support one of theirs budget.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

What's also weird is that since the NDP and the CPC both champion a balanced budget, they seem to be the most likely in a vote, to support one of theirs budget.

No they wouldn't... just because they ostensibly support a balanced budget in the shorter-term (although I think it's baloney, neither would do it) doesn't mean they'd support the actual spending iniatives. I mean that neither would support spending the money on what the other would spend it on regardless of whether the debit-credit balance was zero, deficit, or surplus.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Parallex

No they wouldn't... just because they ostensibly support a balanced budget in the shorter-term (although I think it's baloney, neither would do it) doesn't mean they'd support the actual spending iniatives. I mean that neither would support spending the money on what the other would spend it on regardless of whether the debit-credit balance was zero, deficit, or surplus.

Yeah, I'm just kind of astounded at Mulcair giving lip service to balancing the budget to appear more middle of the road. I fear the NDP are moving to the centre like the Labour Party in Britain although this may ease the fears of the right wing that the Socialist Horde is going to take over.

Blair was a polarizing figure in the British labour movement in the 1990s and 2000s. He spent much of his time as prime minister moving the party toward the centre. By the end of his premiership in 2007 people joked he was liked more by the conservatives than his own party.
Mulcair says that’s what Canadians are looking for.
“I think what Canadians want are people who are realists, who understand for example the importance of our extractive industries and the creation of jobs but they also want to have a government that’s actually going to enforce rules of sustainable development like polluter pay. We can do both.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/1409121/nd...-mushy-middle/

[chedder]

Just went into my sisters neighbourhood and noticed that Ron Liepert, former provincial conservative lacky obviously can't find a job so, surprise, he's running for federal politics. Old boy retreads don't give me much hope for the cons.

[Slava]

Things aren't looking good for the CPC in the latest Nanos poll: http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news...ticle26246364/

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Slava

Things aren't looking good for the CPC in the latest Nanos poll: http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news...ticle26246364/

Yup, third place almost outside the MOE with little growth potential. Eventually the anti-Harper vote is going to coalesce around someone and he'll be in tough.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Slava

Things aren't looking good for the CPC in the latest Nanos poll: http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news...ticle26246364/

Support for the Conservatives has slipped to 26.2 per cent (a 2.3-percentage-point drop).

Interesting that the Conservatives have dropped below 28%. My gut has always been that there the Federal Conservatives have a 30-28% voter base that will vote Conservative no matter what the situation is. If a few more polls start showing the Conservatives below 28% then I think things will start getting messy as that would indicate that they're starting to lose hard conservatives.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

What was it that caused the NDP's numbers to start rocketing upwards back in May?

Not sure if this deserved green text, but Notley's win in Alberta was interpreted by a vast majority of the country as "even the Albertans are willing to vote for the NDP", rather than the anti-PC vote that it was. Couple that with it also being the absolute low-point in Trudeau's series of blunders and it was the perfect boost for Mulcair to look like the answer to Harper for the ABC portion of the population.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by chedder

Just went into my sisters neighbourhood and noticed that Ron Liepert, former provincial conservative lacky obviously can't find a job so, surprise, he's running for federal politics. Old boy retreads don't give me much hope for the cons.

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Interesting that the Conservatives have dropped below 28%. My gut has always been that there the Federal Conservatives have a 30-28% voter base that will vote Conservative no matter what the situation is. If a few more polls start showing the Conservatives below 28% then I think things will start getting messy as that would indicate that they're starting to lose hard conservatives.

As an example the Ron Liepert riding mentioned above, according the threehundredeight it's

CPC 44.3%
LIB 31.0%
NDP 14.8%
GRN 6.8%

Calgary Forest Lawn is the same too Oberai's been there forever! These should be slam dunks. Rob Anders won the old Calgary West while asleep for 15 years.

If these numbers get closer then those diehards are moving away.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

As an example the Ron Liepert riding mentioned above, according the threehundredeight it's

CPC 44.3%
LIB 31.0%
NDP 14.8%
GRN 6.8%

Calgary Forest Lawn is the same too Oberai's been there forever! These should be slam dunks. Rob Anders won the old Calgary West while asleep for 15 years.

If these numbers get closer then those diehards are moving away.

I made fun of 308 during the provincial election, because I thought he was out to lunch... until he was pretty dead on with his calls.

I can't see Liepert losing as he has a name (by beating Anders and also his time in the Alberta Government), but I can see Forrest Lawn shifting to the Liberals if things keep going the way they are. Calgary-Confederation is another Calgary seat to watch as it looks like that is a close race between the Liberals and conservatives.