Playoff pace and controlling our own destiny

[Robbob]

But if LA loses today then it literally doesn't matter for a few more days.

[polak]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

You literally can't even spell literally correctly.

For most of the thread I have been discussing the 96 point plateau. The discussion today hasn't revolved around that. I understand that if Calgary loses and LA wins they are ahead of us.What I'm saying is if that happens, Calgary can still control their final fate based on the fact they play these teams. If they didn't play these teams and/or the teams didn't play each other you'd have a small point. Because this isn't the case, you don't.

Simple scenario for you: Calgary loses the next game and LA wins the next game. Calgary is behind LA in the standings. Calgary wins their remaining games. How do they need any help if they win out? You mentioned if Calgary wins 11 and someone wins 12 they are still ahead. I understand that. How does Calgary not finish in the playoffs if they win their remaining games, especially when they play the teams that are in front of them? Specifically they play LA. Since they would be tied in points and if Calgary won the final game (controlling their destiny) they get in. That has nothing to do with 96 points.

If they pass us by two points and then we win out and LA wins out -1, we'd be tied so now where hoping that we have more ROW than them. I guess in that specific situation we'd be in control but completely dependant on the tie break, which might changed at that point.

Or we can just stay ahead of them. Much easier.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

So all you're really saying is it's good to stay in the top 8.
Ok, thanks.

Actually, my whole point was I hate the idea of completely artificial goal posts like "96 points". In my opinion, at this point of the season any time a loss means we're sitting outside of a playoff spot should be treated as a must win.

[1stLand]

I think the Flames will need 100 points to get in.

The way all of the bubble teams are playing......they just aren't losing.....at all.

[Robbob]

Once every team plays 5 more games it will be a lot easier to determine the playoff threshold. I still believe because a bunch of teams play each other that it will lower that threshold to around 95. That spreadsheet the Murph made up is a fun little exercise to play with the different possibilities.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by polak

Actually, my whole point was I hate the idea of completely artificial goal posts like "96 points".

There's nothing artificial about 96 points. No team has ever finished with 96 points and missed the playoffs, which makes it a pretty safe target to aim for. I recall various coaches saying the same thing over the years.

Originally Posted by 1stLand

I think the Flames will need 100 points to get in.

The way all of the bubble teams are playing......they just aren't losing.....at all.

That isn't going to continue for a solid month. The longest winning streak in NHL history is 17 games, by the 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins. Say what you like about the Canucks, Kings, Jets, and Wild, the '92 Penguins they're not.

In fact, since every one of those teams has at least two regulation losses in its last 10 games, it isn't even true that they are not losing at all.

[1stLand]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

There's nothing artificial about 96 points. No team has ever finished with 96 points and missed the playoffs, which makes it a pretty safe target to aim for. I recall various coaches saying the same thing over the years.



That isn't going to continue for a solid month. The longest winning streak in NHL history is 17 games, by the 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins. Say what you like about the Canucks, Kings, Jets, and Wild, the '92 Penguins they're not.

In fact, since every one of those teams has at least two regulation losses in its last 10 games, it isn't even true that they are not losing at all.

I hope so friend. I hope so.
I want the Flames to make the playoffs so badly.

I would prefer to see LA and San Jose out of the Playoffs. Heck I would love to see the Canucks out of the playoffs too.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

I would prefer to see LA and San Jose out of the Playoffs. Heck I would love to see the Canucks out of the playoffs too.

Alas, you're not going to get all your wishes. At least three teams from the Pacific Division have to make the playoffs. Arizona and Edmonton aren't going to be there, which leaves three spots for five teams. If L.A. and San Jose both miss, then the Canucks are in by default.

[1stLand]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Alas, you're not going to get all your wishes. At least three teams from the Pacific Division have to make the playoffs. Arizona and Edmonton aren't going to be there, which leaves three spots for five teams. If L.A. and San Jose both miss, then the Canucks are in by default.

Yes I know this.
I guess I would prefer that San Jose gets in and LA and Canucks miss.

San Jose is less of a threat to the Flames imo

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

Yes I know this.
I guess I would prefer that San Jose gets in and LA and Canucks miss.

San Jose is less of a threat to the Flames imo

That's a pretty tall order, but I'll see what I can do.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

There's nothing artificial about 96 points. No team has ever finished with 96 points and missed the playoffs, which makes it a pretty safe target to aim for. I recall various coaches saying the same thing over the years.

Not to nit pick, but this isn't entirely accurate (though technically it's correct). In 2010-11 a team with 96 points in the WC would have missed. 8th place Chicago had 97 points and 9th place Dallas had 95 points.

As I've pointed out it's the only time in history that a team with 96 points would have missed the playoffs.

[drewtastic]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by heep223

Not to nit pick, but this isn't entirely accurate (though technically it's correct). In 2010-11 a team with 96 points in the WC would have missed. 8th place Chicago had 97 points and 9th place Dallas had 95 points.

Actually, it is still correct, because no team in the Western Conference had 96 points that year. Besides, there are two ways of looking at that:

1. (Your way) If Dallas had got one more point, they would have missed the playoffs with 96 points.

2. (My way) To make the playoffs, all you have to do is finish one point ahead of the 9th-place team. So Chicago had one point more than they needed; they would still have been ahead of Dallas with 96.

In every season and every situation in the NHL to date, 96 points was enough to finish ahead of the 9th-place team. If the Flames somehow manage to get 96 and still miss, at least they'll have the consolation of making history. (And the more important consolation of developing as a team by being in the hunt till the last day.)

[Barnet Flame]

I hope we make the playoffs

[Monahan23]

I think the only teams we should be watching and really caring about is LA and Winnipeg. We have a really good schedule though and L.A has been awful on the road and are playing almost double the road games than home

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Monahan23

I think the only teams we should be watching and really caring about is LA and Winnipeg. We have a really good schedule though and L.A has been awful on the road and are playing almost double the road games than home

We should also be watching and caring about the Canucks and Wild. The Canucks are only 3 points up on the 9th place team. I know the Wild have been on an amazing streak but they too are on the brink and only have 1 more point than the Canucks. The Sharks are a minor issue for now.

[squiggs96]

I'm just going to watch the Flames and whoever they are playing that night. It seems way less complicated that way. Tonight I will watch Calgary vs. Anaheim.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Actually, it is still correct, because no team in the Western Conference had 96 points that year. Besides, there are two ways of looking at that:

1. (Your way) If Dallas had got one more point, they would have missed the playoffs with 96 points.

2. (My way) To make the playoffs, all you have to do is finish one point ahead of the 9th-place team. So Chicago had one point more than they needed; they would still have been ahead of Dallas with 96.

In every season and every situation in the NHL to date, 96 points was enough to finish ahead of the 9th-place team. If the Flames somehow manage to get 96 and still miss, at least they'll have the consolation of making history. (And the more important consolation of developing as a team by being in the hunt till the last day.)

I use your method too. It really is perspective though. What you need to make the playoffs depends on whether you are currently above or below the cutoff. If you're outside looking in,, you need to finish ahead of the current 8th. If you're in and wanting to stay, you need to finish ahead of 9th.

If you're not a team and simply finding the cutoff, well then both are correct

[getbak]

Originally Posted by polak

All I see is every team we're competing with keeps winning.

It seems that way, but other than Minnesota, every team in the Western race has at least 3 regulation losses in their last 10 games and no one has more than 6 wins.

[Gaudfather]

"10 wins and were in" should be the Flames mantra.

winning 10 of their last 16 equates to 97 points - that should do it.