Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[edslunch]

I believe the Forum poll is land lines - suspect that would under-estimate Turner more than others

[Bunk]

This is true, would like to see other polls too. Though polls can be self fulfilling prophecies. Perception of momentum, competitiveness, etc matters.

[jtfrogger]

I'm wondering if Nenshi's involvement will sway some opinions. He hasn't endorsed anyone, but he has been critical of Crockatt. I am quite surprised that Crockatt asked Nenshi to say positive things about the conservatives, but his response is awesome.

If he sways enough voters to look at the evidence, Crockatt could very well find herself in third place. It really wouldn't take too much for that to happen given that it is a three horse race. Now that would be a crazy fun.

[4X4]

^ Thanked for that Nenshi tweet.

[KelVarnsen]

When was the last time as non conservative type party member won a seat in Calgary?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I don't like to mentally adjust polls either... We saw how that worked out for the "unskewed" crowd in the US. But Calgary Centre seems to me to be an unusually bad riding in which to do landline-only polling.

[jtfrogger]

1 Calgary Centre is spinning this poll as positive for Turner.

Poll Analysis: Harvey - no growth/at ceiling. Joan - at floor & hanging around. Chris - only 1 with stat sig growth since Oct 26 #YYCCentre

1CC seems overly supportive of Turner. These results are too close to the previous polls to be considered too different given the margin of error. Saying Harvey is at his ceiling is a big stretch.

I really think that 1CC will have no meaningful impact in this election. They have 749 likes on Facebook and 449 followers on Twitter. Even if these are all distinct people and they all vote with their recommendation it is only 1200 votes. In reality, anyone following the election closely would be following them even if they are not in the riding or are partisan enough to vote and some people would be following on both.

The only thing that would have a material chance at uniting the "progressive" vote would be if Meades pulled out and supported either Locke or Turner. The other two are in it to the end.

If the Liberals would have nominated a stronger candidate such as Bronconnier or Nkemdirim, they would likely be leading in the polls by now.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Grunt

I had to chuckle a bit at the end of Saturday's forum when his closing remarks were something along the lines of "either Joan or I are going to win this thing, so vote Liberal". Obviously he feels a bit threatened by all the momentum Turner has been generating.

Chuckle all you want, but it's the right message. If Locke is to beat Crockatt, he needs to attract strategic voters away from Turner and Meades. The remaining 35% who will vote Crockatt are likely the die-hards who won't be switching.

Originally Posted by Slava

Honestly, he [Turner] would be a good alderman with what he's put forward here.

I asked him if he'd consider taking a run at Ward 8 should MP not work out... he wasn't interested.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by jtfrogger

1 Calgary Centre is spinning this poll as positive for Turner.

1CC seems overly supportive of Turner. These results are too close to the previous polls to be considered too different given the margin of error. Saying Harvey is at his ceiling is a big stretch.

I agree that tweet does come off as overtly supportive of Turner. Brian (who is a pollster) will have a further breakdown of numbers later today, which I think may clarify that tweet a bit more. But from what I gander, that tweet was suppose to indicate the change in poll position from October 26th, not just the difference between the November 12th & 18th poll. If you look at those numbers Joan has dropped from 48%-35%, Harvey has gone from 28% to 30% and Turner gone 11%-25%. The Nov. 18th poll really indicates that the 12th poll wasn't an outlier and an off poll.

I agree that unless Meades drops out and pushes his support behind one of Turner or Locke it looks like we'll be at a similar mark by election day, +/- the 5% margin of error.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by SebC

I asked him if he'd consider taking a run at Ward 8 should MP not work out... he wasn't interested.

I'd be happy with him representing the ward he lives in and taking a run at ward 7 when Druh calls it quits. I would be very happy to call him my Councillor.

[jtfrogger]

Originally Posted by SebC

I asked him if he'd consider taking a run at Ward 8 should MP not work out... he wasn't interested.

If he gave any other answer, I would be surprised. As soon as he starts talking about what he will do when he loses, he has lost. He has no reason to tank his own campaign right now.

That said, I sure hope he does run again for political office if he loses. The aldermanic race would be a good one, given that it is less than a year away. I think he would have a good chance at unseating an incumbent in one of the central wards.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Very interesting result.

Turner still on upward trend, but perhaps not quite as dramatic a change in the last week as they might have hoped. Crockatt entrenched in the mid 30s, Locke entrenched at 30.

So, what to do?

Turner will argue that he's still moving upward and Locke is stalled therefore must coalesce around him.

Locke will argue Turner's momentum is plateauing and that he's closest to Crockatt therefore must coalesce around him.

Meades is going nowhere, but I imagine there's a hardcore base of 6-8% NDP support that won't switch to keep Crockatt out.

The poll 2-3 days out is the one that matters, but this one will prevent much movement to one candidate to stop Crockatt, which is bad news. I think the opposition was really hoping to see Crockatt's support continue to crater, but that doesn't seem to be happening. Vote split such a big factor now.

I think that works more in favour of Locke than of Turner. I'm a red tory, definitely won't vote green, so it's between Crockett and Locke. I doubt Locke is stealing many votes from Turner but it's definitely the other way around.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

I'd be happy with him representing the ward he lives in and taking a run at ward 7 when Druh calls it quits. I would be very happy to call him my Councillor.

There's an over-coiffed idiot in Ward 8 that could also use some competition.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Table 5

There's an over-coiffed idiot in Ward 8 that could also use some competition.

True, but I'm being selfish and want Turner for my ward (which he lives in too).

However I think with his ideas and knowledge municipal politics may not be the best venue for him, his stuff is much bigger picture than what a city can do. Be that as it may I have no doubt he would give it his all should he represent at the municipal level.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I agree that tweet does come off as overtly supportive of Turner. Brian (who is a pollster) will have a further breakdown of numbers later today, which I think may clarify that tweet a bit more. But from what I gander, that tweet was suppose to indicate the change in poll position from October 26th, not just the difference between the November 12th & 18th poll. If you look at those numbers Joan has dropped from 48%-35%, Harvey has gone from 28% to 30% and Turner gone 11%-25%. The Nov. 18th poll really indicates that the 12th poll wasn't an outlier and an off poll.

I agree that unless Meades drops out and pushes his support behind one of Turner or Locke it looks like we'll be at a similar mark by election day, +/- the 5% margin of error.

It looks like all three of those candidates have basically plateaued to me. Sending out tweets to suggest that the growth is larger for one candidate over a particular period of time is basically just spinning the data to press for one candidate.

You know that I am a supporter of the idea of 1CC, and really want them/you to achieve your goal. At the same time there has always been a perception (at least, whether right or wrong) that this group has been influenced and pushed by the Turner campaign. In this particular case we are a week out, with a progressive candidate who is within the statistical margin of error. That should be a slam dunk for 1CC to consider. Honestly, the point is to win. Nothing against Turner, but he's 10 points out by this poll, regardless of where the candidates began. He needs growth of his support by nearly 50% to have a chance.

Originally Posted by Table 5

There's an over-coiffed idiot in Ward 8 that could also use some competition.

lol at the "over-coiffed". Thats awesome!!

[Table 5]

What does Nate Silver have to say on the race?

[Robotic]

My girlfriend was taking the bus to work this morning and Chris Turner got on the #7 heading to his campaign headquarters and when he got on he announced who he was and reminded people to vote. He even answered questions afterwards. That seemed like a creative way to get peoples attentions and you know they're all within the voting district.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Slava

It looks like all three of those candidates have basically plateaued to me. Sending out tweets to suggest that the growth is larger for one candidate over a particular period of time is basically just spinning the data to press for one candidate.

You know that I am a supporter of the idea of 1CC, and really want them/you to achieve your goal. At the same time there has always been a perception (at least, whether right or wrong) that this group has been influenced and pushed by the Turner campaign. In this particular case we are a week out, with a progressive candidate who is within the statistical margin of error. That should be a slam dunk for 1CC to consider. Honestly, the point is to win. Nothing against Turner, but he's 10 points out by this poll, regardless of where the candidates began. He needs growth of his support by nearly 50% to have a chance.



lol at the "over-coiffed". Thats awesome!!

Speaking of spin, you could've just said 40% instead of nearly 50%.

[Jacks]

I wish Nenshi would stay neutral in provincial and federal elections. He has to work with the winner and it doesn't do Calgary any good to have ill will between levels of government.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by SebC

Speaking of spin, you could've just said 40% instead of nearly 50%.

That puts him at a tie....isn't the point to win?