Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[nik-]

Originally Posted by SebC

The question is whether the message is gonna be "we're ready to matter to the Liberal party" or "we're fed up with the Conservatives, but we still won't vote Liberal". If it's the latter, then the Conservatives really don't have much to worry about in 2015.

(Turner seems like he might be the better candidate, but I think it would be better for Calgary to elect a Liberal than a Green.)

I agree with this. It's like Quebec going NDP to show the Bloc that they were pissed off (obviously on a much smaller scale). The Green party is irrelevant, it's hard for the Conservatives to take that message seriously.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by nik-

I agree with this. It's like Quebec going NDP to show the Bloc that they were pissed off (obviously on a much smaller scale). The Green party is irrelevant, it's hard for the Conservatives to take that message seriously.

I see what you're saying, but I think the Conservatives losing a riding in the heart of Calgary, whether it's Liberal, Green of NDP, will have a massive ripple-effect throughout Canadian Politics. Sure the Conservatives can spin it on lower turnout and what not, but all three parties, regardless of who wins, will use it to show that the Conservatives are losing the respect of Canadians. It'll be a PR nightmare for Harper's Government.

[nik-]

Agreed, either way it looks bad, but if it's a legit party, a party that's about to have a leadership race and a likely image Makeover as a result, it looks worse.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Bunk

I was quite impressed by the calibre of all three of the candidates that participated in today's Cities Matter debate. Good to see.

The next polling numbers will be very interesting. I'm going to guess that Harvey Locke pulls slightly ahead of Crockatt. I just think that if her soft red-tory support is floundering, it'll most likely go to Locke. People love sending messages in by-elections.

Lots and lots of enthusiasm in the Turner campaign, I wonder how much that translates into support. He's a very strong candidate.

Do you know if another poll is planned? It would have to be in the field now, I would think--there's just over a week left.

[Grunt]

I read somewhere that despite missing yet another forum today, Crockatt is committed to one more before the end of the race. The reasoning was that going to more didn't sync with the priorities of her campaign. Pretty brutal.

Although the whole wifi thing w/ Elizabeth May is pretty kooky, Turner doesn't give off that vibe for me. I've had the chance to listen to him speak a number of times, and he definitely comes across as a solid, thoughtful guy, who is a decent speaker and would make a fine MP.

Although Locke seems like a decent candidate as well, I've heard him speak outside the forums and he can come across as quite condescending. I had to chuckle a bit at the end of Saturday's forum when his closing remarks were something along the lines of "either Joan or I are going to win this thing, so vote Liberal". Obviously he feels a bit threatened by all the momentum Turner has been generating.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Do you know if another poll is planned? It would have to be in the field now, I would think--there's just over a week left.

I hear another Globe and Mail Forum Research Poll is coming out tomorrow. I imagine there will be a couple more after that leading right up to election day.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I see what you're saying, but I think the Conservatives losing a riding in the heart of Calgary, whether it's Liberal, Green of NDP, will have a massive ripple-effect throughout Canadian Politics. Sure the Conservatives can spin it on lower turnout and what not, but all three parties, regardless of who wins, will use it to show that the Conservatives are losing the respect of Canadians. It'll be a PR nightmare for Harper's Government.

Agreed. Liberal or Green the effect is exactly the same. Both are equally shocking in a sense - one being the party that's been considered enemy #1 for over a generation and the other, Green, being such the opposite of the Calgary political stereotype and a small party. Still an uphill battle I think, but Crockatt losing is a distinct possibility. Her campaign has that sinking ship feeling. I wouldn't be surprised if the likes of Jim Prentice, Jason Kenney or even Stephen Harper himself show up this week to try and rescue this thing. It was just a huge mistake to nominate someone like Crockatt in this riding.

[Slava]

You guys are right that regardless of who wins other than Crockatt, it would be enormous. The difference might be in the longer term though. A Liberal winning there has a chance to hold that seat next election, whereas the Green would just get slaughtered when the federal campaigns put May front and centre as the face of the party.

The other thing I note is that Turner might as well be running as an independent. Other than last night its not a huge party based campaign. Honestly, he would be a good alderman with what he's put forward here.

[Smartcar]

The hardcore Liberal vote in Calgary Centre is around 10% (worst ever was 9.8%, in 2000 when Joe Clark won and all the typical Liberal voters went PC) so Harvey Locke could win it unless a lot of typical Liberal voters are persuaded to vote for Turner by groups like 1Calgarycentre. I could see Crockatt squeaking by with 33% of the vote. That was the one reason why I didn't immediately hang up upon getting the automated polling call yesterday on my cell (like I did the 6 previous times in the last 3 weeks both at home and on my cell), I decided it was better to say what my voting intentions were.

[The Goon]

Just curious - for those living in Calgary Centre, are you getting lots of calls and robocalls?

[Table 5]

Turner seems like a guy that might want to think about running for leadership of the Greens. Elizabeth May probably prevents as many votes as she brings in.

I'd like to vote for Turner for this....but I'll most likely vote for whomever has the best shot at beating the Crockateer at the end of the race.

[c.t.ner]

Rumour has been all weekend that there is a Forum Research poll coming out tomorrow. No indication what it has as information, but this is from a key figure in Turner's campaign.

https://twitter.com/PlanetLeor/statu...47620357120000

New Globe & mail poll shows @turner4yyc is only campaign with consistent momentum! Liberal campaign has flatlined #yycCentre #cdnpoli

[Slava]

How would they get that info though? Has anything been released because I would love to look at it!

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Slava

How would they get that info though? Has anything been released because I would love to look at it!

I'm not sure, but I think these things tend to leak to other pollsters or campaign personal. I don't think the info will be out publicly till tomorrow, when the edition of the Globe is launched.

This is another hint of a tweet from 308dotcom.

https://twitter.com/308dotcom/status/270353619575001089

By-Election Barometer updated, no changes in forecasts. http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/by-election-barometer.html?spref=tw …

My gut says that Turners is at 26-29%, with Locke at 29-32% and Joan has probably crawled back up to 33-35%. The expense would be on the NDP side of things. That's just a gut feeling, but I'm eager to see what the numbers are tomorrow morning. (for the record, I'm just going off of tweets. No insider info here)

[Slava]

I think that you're about right with your numbers. Honestly, assuming that's the case it basically means no change. The margin of error was so big on the other poll that these moves would all be within that anyway. Add to that the likelihood that this poll will have a high MOE as well, and its interesting but not incredibly valuable.

What it does show though is that 1CC needs to work. With three guys to the left of the CPC the vote split is a killer. If she manages to get 36%+ its nearly impossible for those three to catch her.

[c.t.ner]

Spoke to soon. Here's the poll.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle5414623/

[Slava]

Here's the poll:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle5414623/

Too lazy to click?

Crockatt 35%
Locke 30%
Turner 25%
Meade 8%

LOL at the Turner supporters trying to spin this as growth for his campaign. This poll is good news for Crockatt, and no one else.

[edslunch]

New Poll today - Crockatt 35, Locke 30, Turner 25. Not enough of a gain by Turner to ride a momentum wave IMO.

[Bunk]

Very interesting result.

Turner still on upward trend, but perhaps not quite as dramatic a change in the last week as they might have hoped. Crockatt entrenched in the mid 30s, Locke entrenched at 30.

So, what to do?

Turner will argue that he's still moving upward and Locke is stalled therefore must coalesce around him.

Locke will argue Turner's momentum is plateauing and that he's closest to Crockatt therefore must coalesce around him.

Meades is going nowhere, but I imagine there's a hardcore base of 6-8% NDP support that won't switch to keep Crockatt out.

The poll 2-3 days out is the one that matters, but this one will prevent much movement to one candidate to stop Crockatt, which is bad news. I think the opposition was really hoping to see Crockatt's support continue to crater, but that doesn't seem to be happening. Vote split such a big factor now.

[c.t.ner]

Here's a further bit of information regarding the poll

Poll Analysis: Keep in mind IVR landline poll, Saturday afternoon on a Chinook day. Favours @Crockateer support #YYCCentre

https://twitter.com/1CalgaryCentre/s...76041971863552

I don't like to play the guessing game with polls, but since there's very few of them out there. I would gander that Crockatt's support might be overstated in the poll break down.