Provincial Election Poll/Prediction Thread

[Julio]

My way out prediction:

PC minority helped out by the Libs...which causes the big tent of the PCs to collapse...the Morton's of the party defecting to Wild Rose, the 'progressives' joining the Libs and maybe the Alberta party in a new centre-right party, and a new election in the next year or so.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Julio

My way out prediction:

PC minority helped out by the Libs...which causes the big tent of the PCs to collapse...the Morton's of the party defecting to Wild Rose, the 'progressives' joining the Libs and maybe the Alberta party in a new centre-right party, and a new election in the next year or so.

That's really not a bad option, In the end we should end up with two legitimate parties that will actually have different views on the path forward. And none of the federal names to affect peoples perceptions. If that is the result two years from now I will sign up for the 2 largerst deficits in Alberta history while the Libs buy the PC votes.

I wonder in that situation if Morton and his group of MLA's would cross the floor to join the WR if they are close enough to a Majority.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Julio

My way out prediction:

PC minority helped out by the Libs...which causes the big tent of the PCs to collapse...the Morton's of the party defecting to Wild Rose, the 'progressives' joining the Libs and maybe the Alberta party in a new centre-right party, and a new election in the next year or so.

Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[photon]

Originally Posted by Julio

My way out prediction:

PC minority helped out by the Libs...which causes the big tent of the PCs to collapse...the Morton's of the party defecting to Wild Rose, the 'progressives' joining the Libs and maybe the Alberta party in a new centre-right party, and a new election in the next year or so.

I can feel the apathy setting in just reading this.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by GGG

I wonder in that situation if Morton and his group of MLA's would cross the floor to join the WR if they are close enough to a Majority.

Don't think Morton is going to win his seat, could be wrong though.

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Bunk

I wasn't asked either, which is very odd. Even if you're on the list, who is to say it's actually that person doing the voting?

There is a movement in the States to require government ID to vote and the left is calling it a right wing conspiracy to keep democrats from voting.

[Cube Inmate]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

Wildrose 42% of the vote, 51 seats
PC Party 35 of the vote, 31 seats
NDP 12% of the vote, 4 seats
Liberals 10 of the vote, 2 seats.

I have a hard time seeing the Wild Rose with less than 18 seats in Calgary, less than 28 in rural Alberta and less than 4 in Edmonton due to vote splits.

I was reviewing 308 earlier today and came to the same conclusions. You're the only one in this thread so far who's predicted more WR seats than me, but I'm revising my prediction up to where yours is now (before 8:00). The fact that left-wing CP isn't even showing a PC majority in the poll suggests that PC support overall is very weak.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

There is a movement in the States to require government ID to vote and the left is calling it a right wing conspiracy to keep democrats from voting.

That's not the same issue at all--and without getting into a brand new debate it's important to note that no-one is saying it's aimed at "democrats"--they're saying it's aimed at the working poor and the homeless, who often don't have drivers' licenses, can't afford to get a passport, or have no address it can be sent to.

[drhu22]

Originally Posted by Julio

My way out prediction:

PC minority helped out by the Libs...which causes the big tent of the PCs to collapse...the Morton's of the party defecting to Wild Rose, the 'progressives' joining the Libs and maybe the Alberta party in a new centre-right party, and a new election in the next year or so.

A thin minority will hopefully reign in the political status quo, and remind the political parties of how democracy is supposed operate, and who puts them in power.

[drhu22]

Originally Posted by Julio

My way out prediction:

PC minority helped out by the Libs...which causes the big tent of the PCs to collapse...the Morton's of the party defecting to Wild Rose, the 'progressives' joining the Libs and maybe the Alberta party in a new centre-right party, and a new election in the next year or so.

A thin minority will hopefully reign in the political status quo, and remind the ruling party of how democracy is supposed operate, and who puts them in power.

[mykalberta]

Wow, all I can say is I was wrong. I didnt expect the Libs to defect on such a massive scale.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Wow, all I can say is I was wrong. I didnt expect the Libs to defect on such a massive scale.

Yep, I thought it'd be a PC minority too... instead PC majority again with them only losing 5 seats.
That was quite surprising. Results in case anyone hasn't read them yet
PC 61 seats 43.9% WRA 17 seats 34.3% LIB 5 seats 9.9% NDP 4 seats 9.8%
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/po...x.html#results

Wiki link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta...election,_2012

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Wow, all I can say is I was wrong. I didnt expect the Libs to defect on such a massive scale.

I wonder if the loss of Liberal votes was caused by progressives strategically voting for the PCs or if this is just their natural level of support in Alberta? That is, maybe their previous numbers were boosted by "anyone but PC" voters who didn't have an alternative but now switched to WR?

[Resolute 14]

No, the Liberals are definitely down from their normal levels of support, but they were down long, long before the election call, so I don't buy strategic voting as the excuse either. The Liberals have been polling <20% since May 2011 and in the low teens for the last 18 months. Raj did nothing at all to turn that around, and even lost more on top of that. You can't even blame the election of Redford as PC leader for causing a defection.

Giving the "anybody but PC" crowd another option is certainly a big reason in my mind, but one can't overstate how much of a disaster David Swann seems to have been to the party's fortunes. Liberal fortunes plummeted straight into the ground after he became leader. So much so that he never even got to contest an election as leader.