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Old 07-11-2021, 09:25 PM   #15261
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Originally Posted by dissentowner View Post
Thornton has134 points in 186 playoff games, that is not bad at all.

That’s correct, it’s not bad, it’s terrible.

Your best player produces at a 59 point pace in the playoffs should ensure you lots of Stanley cups.


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Old 07-11-2021, 09:26 PM   #15262
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It's weird how there is all this apparent in Eichel, who has a bunch of red flags, yet there was hardly any interest in offer sheeting Brayden Point, who had basically no red flags.

In hindsight I think I would have preferred if the Flames just paid Point an absurd amount (while somehow having the cap space).

I guess if there was no cap we could offer sheet everyone, giving up our draft picks in perpetuity.


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Old 07-11-2021, 09:30 PM   #15263
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That’s correct, it’s not bad, it’s terrible.

Your best player produces at a 59 point pace in the playoffs should ensure you lots of Stanley cups.
For a lot of those playoff games, Thornton was nowhere near being the team's best player. His aggregate numbers include the playoffs in 2017 (2 points in 4 games), 2019 (10 in 19), and 2021 (1 in 7 for the Leafs), when his best days were long behind him. The man is 42 years old and still playing, for crying out loud.

The last time Thornton scored at a PPG pace in the regular season was 2015-16, which, by no coincidence, was the year the Sharks went the distance. In that year's playoffs he scored 21 points in 24 games. Yeah, that's not bad, it's terrible, right?

Career averages are misleading, but only to those who want to be misled.
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Old 07-11-2021, 09:31 PM   #15264
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I guess if there was no cap we could offer sheet everyone, giving up our draft picks in perpetuity.
We would also need a mind-control ray to force the players to sign the offer sheets, and to force their existing teams not to match.

Don't worry, I'm sure that will all happen real soon now.
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Old 07-11-2021, 09:34 PM   #15265
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I didn't say the Eichel talks were weird, I said the lack of Point talks were weird.
He is one of the most underpaid players in the league, and he could have easily signed for much more if he had signed an offer sheet.
He took a bridge deal to chase a championship and his QA is $9m after next season, not exactly chicken feed.
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Old 07-11-2021, 10:39 PM   #15266
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I didn't say the Eichel talks were weird, I said the lack of Point talks were weird.
He is one of the most underpaid players in the league, and he could have easily signed for much more if he had signed an offer sheet.
The Flames couldn't have afforded to give him a bigger offer sheet, and if it had been successful, they wouldn't have been able to sign Tkachuk.

The most-likely outcome of giving Point an offer sheet would have been for Tampa to match it and then retaliate by giving the same offer sheet to Tkachuk.
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Old 07-11-2021, 10:53 PM   #15267
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There's the problem. Based on what criteria? I'm exactly where blender is and have a really different perspective on what constitutes a good hockey player, especially a center. To me, the greatest example of this is Jonathan Toews. When the Hawks won their Stanley Cups, I saw Toews as the second best center in the game behind only Crosby, even though Toews finished as the 7th then 14th highest scoring center in the game those seasons. I tend to favor guys that have a blend of good two way games and scoring more so than guys that are just offensive players. So as amazing offensive talents that McDavid and Eichel are supposed to be, their complete lack of defensive awareness and commitment makes them substantially less attractive. If you are scoring 100 points, but giving up 120 goals, are you really contributing to a winner? I don't think so, which is why I don't get so tied up in who is such a scoring machine. I could do a list, but it would require more explanation than its probably worth. Let's just say that if the Flames are looking to try and steal away a young center in the game the guy I would be most interested in would be Sebastian Aho. All the skill of Eichel and can spell defense.
Simple. Who you'd pick for your team to win 1 game or 1 series or 1 season. For simplicity sake, imagine it'll be a fantasy draft, but everyone has to draft the same position each round (ie. you can't decide to trade down or pick a D or G instead). AAV and term and age are irrelevant.

You have pick 16. The first 15 guys on my list are gone. How many of these (or others) are you taking before Eichel? Lots of really good players, but all have significant question marks, too.

Barzal
Tavares*
Toews*
Zibanejad*
Pettersson*
Seguin*
Couture
Larkin
Schenn
Lindholm
Horvat
Kuznetsov**
etc etc etc


Without the injury concerns for either, Toews might be the only one I'm sure I'd take ahead of JE.

Factoring in the injuries [for everyone], I'd talk myself into Barzal and probably Zibanejad first. Eichel is a high risk high reward situation. But a lot of these guys have injury* or GAF** concerns. Obviously it's tough to weigh the risk vs. reward without all of the facts, but at a certain point the next tier is a choice between borderline elite guys with * , or reliable but lower ceiling guys like Couture/Schenn/Lindholm/Horvat.
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Old 07-11-2021, 11:05 PM   #15268
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There's the problem. Based on what criteria? I'm exactly where blender is and have a really different perspective on what constitutes a good hockey player, especially a center. To me, the greatest example of this is Jonathan Toews. When the Hawks won their Stanley Cups, I saw Toews as the second best center in the game behind only Crosby, even though Toews finished as the 7th then 14th highest scoring center in the game those seasons. I tend to favor guys that have a blend of good two way games and scoring more so than guys that are just offensive players. So as amazing offensive talents that McDavid and Eichel are supposed to be, their complete lack of defensive awareness and commitment makes them substantially less attractive. If you are scoring 100 points, but giving up 120 goals, are you really contributing to a winner? I don't think so, which is why I don't get so tied up in who is such a scoring machine. I could do a list, but it would require more explanation than its probably worth. Let's just say that if the Flames are looking to try and steal away a young center in the game the guy I would be most interested in would be Sebastian Aho. All the skill of Eichel and can spell defense.

You can't conflate the impression of fans or media with that of executives. Fans and media don't have the pressure to win sitting on their foreheads. While fans easily fall in love with guys who are flashy or score a lot of points like McDavid or Eichel, teams that want to win championships prefer solid two way players like Crosby or Bergeron. When you take salary considerations into play, I'm sure there are more than a few GMs that don't view Eichel worth the squeeze.
Not sure where you information is coming from but first of all can you provide backup for his "he is bad defensively? I look at his possession numbers and it tells me less than half the time he is on the ice 5 v 5 he doesnt need to play defense because he has the puck on his stick, or a teammate does. I also see that when he is in his own end (when I watch) he is a one man breakout, but the sample size is small I will admit.

For faceoffs, that is a nice to have. The flames could instead find a faceoff specialist for d zone draws, or flank lindholm on his line to take a lot of the faceoffs.

You mention MacKinnon as elite... his breakout came in year 5 of his nhl career 97 points in 74 games. Eichel in year 5 (after having a better prior 4 years was on the verge of a huge breakout with 78 points in 68 games or a 94 point campaign. This was while he was carrying the corpse of Jeff skinner, and reinhart on his line. MacKinnon had his breakout playing the majority of his time with rantanen and landeskog... that is a pretty significant difference. While we are comparing them... eichel >MacKinnon in the faceoff circle.

To me the only legitimate concern on eichel is the health. Hence why you hire a medical staff to review the medicals to mitigate that risk. Otherwise the flames should be all in.

I would propose something like Eichel+ristolainen+tage Thompson for tkachuk, Monahan, andersson, 1st 2021, 2nd 2022. (Assuming health checks out)
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Old 07-12-2021, 04:32 AM   #15269
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For a lot of those playoff games, Thornton was nowhere near being the team's best player. His aggregate numbers include the playoffs in 2017 (2 points in 4 games), 2019 (10 in 19), and 2021 (1 in 7 for the Leafs), when his best days were long behind him. The man is 42 years old and still playing, for crying out loud.

The last time Thornton scored at a PPG pace in the regular season was 2015-16, which, by no coincidence, was the year the Sharks went the distance. In that year's playoffs he scored 21 points in 24 games. Yeah, that's not bad, it's terrible, right?

Career averages are misleading, but only to those who want to be misled.

His career average during the regular season is 75 points per season, which dips to 59 points in the playoffs. There has always been a dip in his production during the playoffs.

Thornton is a great player who has had a great career, but he has not historically been a playoff warrior.

While I am not a big proponent of plus/minus, he is plus 192 over his career, and minus 36 in the playoffs.

During his prime years, during the regular season he was well over a point per game in the regular season and a consistent plus player, who routinely dipped significantly in both points and plus/minus in the playoffs.

The majority of those playoffs games came while he was a significant producer.

I recall during his prime watching Dave Bolland routinely toying with him in the playoffs.


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Old 07-12-2021, 06:54 AM   #15270
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With roster freeze starting on Saturday , we could be seeing a couple trades around the nhl this week. Have to think there are some teams that don’t want to lose a player for nothing in expansion draft. Have my doubts Calgary will be doing anything before freeze , but you never know.
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Old 07-12-2021, 08:05 AM   #15271
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Food for thought... What if Brad gives up a decent package for Eichel and then that allows him to go 4/4 with protecting and can retain Gio... If we give up say Tkachuk and Dube in that package. Those are 2 of the 7 projected to be picked. I guess one is replaced with Eichel but losing the 5th best forward would likely be more appealing than Sutter losing Gio. I'd prefer Gio and that cap hit go, but wonder if that might/could be their thinking.
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Old 07-12-2021, 08:14 AM   #15272
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Why do people both calculating the averages of players are 40+ years old.
When the Flames signed Jagr did they expect him to get 95 points?
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Old 07-12-2021, 08:17 AM   #15273
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Simple. Who you'd pick for your team to win 1 game or 1 series or 1 season.
Now you're looking at the game as it should be looked at. Team outcomes as measured through wins and losses are all that matter. This is my approach to picking players and team building. Here are my top centers, or guys that I would want on my team if I am trying to win more than I lose.

Sydney Crosby, Auston Matthews, Patrice Bergeron, Nathan MacKinnon, Brayden Point, Aleksander Barkov, Sebastian Aho, Matthew Barzal, Ryan O'Reilly, Connor McDavid (have to take him), John Tavares, Sean Couturier, Mika Zibanejad, Mark Scheifele, David Krejci, Joe Pavelski, Antze Kopitar, Elias Pettersson, William Karlsson (surprise pick) to start.

After this we start to get into the area where I start thinking about Eichel's scoring prowess and weighing whether the juice is worth the squeeze. Now we're into guys that are not great scorers, but just solid two way players. I'd probably rather have them out there trying to win a championship as the risk is much smaller. So add Nicklas Backstrom, Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn, Jamie Benn, Chandler Stephenson/Jonathan Marchessault (depends on your interpretation of position between this pair), Elias Lindholm, Bo Horvat, and J.T. Miller to the mix. Now we're in that zone where the scoring exploits possibly outstrip the need for a solid two way player.

Eichel is getting lumped in with Leon Draisaitl, Evgeni Malkin, Dylan Larkin, and Evgeny Kuznetsov. These are guys that are high risk, high reward, but have to be sheltered to make them most effective. For these guys to contribute to a winner you need to play them with the right mix of linemates, one of which is going to be the defensive conscience of the line. I'm not a fan of guys like this as they need someone else to cover their weaknesses or lack of work ethic. Yes, they can rack up the points against the weaker opponents, but when the games get tougher, the games are closer checking, and mistakes lose games, I'm hesitant to pick guys like this. They may win you a game here or there, but they lose you just as many.


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For simplicity sake, imagine it'll be a fantasy draft, but everyone has to draft the same position each round (ie. you can't decide to trade down or pick a D or G instead). AAV and term and age are irrelevant.
And we're back to square one. I don't care about fantasy hockey. I don't care about points scored and individual glory. All I care about is players that help the team win. It's why a guy who scored 66 points and was the 14th highest scoring center in the game was the second best player at his position in 2014-15. Toews played an epic two way game and was on the ice for 30 more goals for, than goals against. That's a guy that helps you win. So I really have no interest in picking players for fantasy drafts, because certain players (McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel, etc.) have to be top picks, even though the teams they play on win less than they should. Fantasy is fantasy. And unfortunately, cap hit does matter in the real world and whether players meet or exceed the contract they are being paid, so yes, it does have to come into play.
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Old 07-12-2021, 09:09 AM   #15274
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There's the problem. Based on what criteria? I'm exactly where blender is and have a really different perspective on what constitutes a good hockey player, especially a center. To me, the greatest example of this is Jonathan Toews. When the Hawks won their Stanley Cups, I saw Toews as the second best center in the game behind only Crosby, even though Toews finished as the 7th then 14th highest scoring center in the game those seasons. I tend to favor guys that have a blend of good two way games and scoring more so than guys that are just offensive players. So as amazing offensive talents that McDavid and Eichel are supposed to be, their complete lack of defensive awareness and commitment makes them substantially less attractive. If you are scoring 100 points, but giving up 120 goals, are you really contributing to a winner? I don't think so, which is why I don't get so tied up in who is such a scoring machine. I could do a list, but it would require more explanation than its probably worth. Let's just say that if the Flames are looking to try and steal away a young center in the game the guy I would be most interested in would be Sebastian Aho. All the skill of Eichel and can spell defense.



You can't conflate the impression of fans or media with that of executives. Fans and media don't have the pressure to win sitting on their foreheads. While fans easily fall in love with guys who are flashy or score a lot of points like McDavid or Eichel, teams that want to win championships prefer solid two way players like Crosby or Bergeron. When you take salary considerations into play, I'm sure there are more than a few GMs that don't view Eichel worth the squeeze.
Valid points. I think similar to you with centers, but do give some weight to the centers that can score.

I can argue that Lindholm and Backlund help us tremendously in our own zone. The problem is the offensive consistency from this team. I want someone like Eichel to help us in that department. We can bring up his point production in Buffalo as a negative, but I think the negative behind that is the team and not the player. Once again, ROR is the perfect example. I assume Ristolainen and Reinhart have an extra gear too.
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Old 07-12-2021, 09:19 AM   #15275
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Where the rumours and trade speculation at?
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Old 07-12-2021, 09:23 AM   #15276
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Where the rumours and trade speculation at?
New to this thread i take it?
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Old 07-12-2021, 09:24 AM   #15277
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From Friedman's final 33 thoughts of the season:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...season-begins/

Chi and Edm are getting to the point where the Keith deal is going to happen or not.
Edm has turned down asks of Bear and/or McLeod

Flames have begun extension talks with Gaudreau, Friedman guesses the AAV will need to be greater than Tkachuk's current AAV of $7 mil.

Toronto had interest in Tyler Bertuzzi but not sure if it is still in the works
Detroit will be among the pursuers for Hyman who won't be back with the Leafs

Van is looking for defence and a centre with "some heft"
Hughes and Petterson are looking for short term deals
Trying to move Nate Schmidt

Guess is ANA, CGY, MIN, VGK are in on Eichel with BOS, NYR, and maybe LAK on the periphery

Tarasenko and the Blues will do everything to facilitate a move. Both parties want to move on

Flyers and Voracek have discussed that it might be time to move on
Voracek will be left unprotected in the expansion draft and a chance his former coach Dave Hakstol might want him
If that fails Flyers will try to trade him but both sides recognize that he might stay put

Flyers no longer in trade talks for Seth Jones.
Jones is unwilling to sign a new deal with the Flyers at this time

There are rumors that the Canes are worried about Nedeljkovic's arbitration award and might not qualify him.

Teams are interested in Christan Dvorak

Wouldn't be surprised if LA looks hard at a Saad or Schwartz type winger

Bets that Landeskog will get re-signed in Col, but sees Kings and Blues (if they can move Tarasenko) going after him if he hits FA.

Thinks players like Coleman, Goodrow, Hyman, and Armia will be heavily pursued.
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https://www.thescore.com/news/2186787

Labanc is natural RW coming off back-to-back so-so seasons who might be at his lowest trade value. Former junior teammate of Mangiapane and Andersson.

Cap hit is a little high for my liking, but might be a decent RW option for the Flames.
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Here's Friedman's segment with Bob Stauffer from yesterday: https://omny.fm/shows/oilers-now-wit...-rogers-7-9-21

He talks about the Flames around 14 minutes in. In this segment, he says he hasn't heard about the Flames talking with Gaudreau yet. Less than 12 hours later, he posted his "31 33 Thoughts" and now says they have started talking.


Also, the mention of Monahan requiring surgery is brief in passing, so I wouldn't take it to mean that it's anything we haven't already heard about.
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Where the rumours and trade speculation at?
You’re literally looking at pages of speculation and discussion of known players on the move.

Do I need to be an ass and post dictionary definitions for you?
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Old 07-12-2021, 09:38 AM   #15278
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Eichel is getting lumped in with Leon Draisaitl, Evgeni Malkin, Dylan Larkin, and Evgeny Kuznetsov. These are guys that are high risk, high reward, but have to be sheltered to make them most effective. For these guys to contribute to a winner you need to play them with the right mix of linemates, one of which is going to be the defensive conscience of the line. I'm not a fan of guys like this as they need someone else to cover their weaknesses or lack of work ethic. Yes, they can rack up the points against the weaker opponents, but when the games get tougher, the games are closer checking, and mistakes lose games, I'm hesitant to pick guys like this. They may win you a game here or there, but they lose you just as many.
The key to having guys like that in the core is they need to be surrounded by other high-end players who can do the heavy lifting in two-way play and leadership. But if they’re by far the best player on the roster, and they’re expected to set the tone in the dressing room and an example on the ice, you’re in trouble.

Kessel is another example. If you have other top players on the roster leading the charge, then he can do his thing. But make him the man, the top of the pecking order, and you have a problem.
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Old 07-12-2021, 10:12 AM   #15279
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And we're back to square one. I don't care about fantasy hockey. I don't care about points scored and individual glory. All I care about is players that help the team win. It's why a guy who scored 66 points and was the 14th highest scoring center in the game was the second best player at his position in 2014-15. Toews played an epic two way game and was on the ice for 30 more goals for, than goals against. That's a guy that helps you win. So I really have no interest in picking players for fantasy drafts, because certain players (McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel, etc.) have to be top picks, even though the teams they play on win less than they should. Fantasy is fantasy. And unfortunately, cap hit does matter in the real world and whether players meet or exceed the contract they are being paid, so yes, it does have to come into play.
Not fantasy hockey in the yahoo-sports sense; I don't care about that either. Fantasy Draft in the sense that the league is re-setting and all of the players are being redrafted...more of an EA Sports kinda thing if you will.

The limitations were just that if Eichel were the best C available, you can't say well I'd take a D or G or W.
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Old 07-12-2021, 03:58 PM   #15280
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1414654951544999936
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