Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[calgaryred]

Originally Posted by transplant99

One of the darkest moments in franchise history.

This moment isnt one of the Flames finest but Gilmour for Leeman is top of the ladder.

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Bingo

My other confusion point is play driving.

Staples earlier this week pointed out that Lucic was one of the Oiler's best in corsi etc. That seemed odd to me so I looked it up and he is.

Fine I thought ... but they must be low impact events ... nope he's up there on scoring chance splits and high danger splits, as well as expected goal splits.

None of that fits with what I saw in Oiler games, but the stats are pretty irrefutable.

Some numbers ...

Flames (14 forwards with 200+ minutes)

James Neal was
12th in CF%
13th in SF%
13th in GF%
13th in xGF%
13th in SCF%
12th in HDCF%
5th in offensive zone starts

His one stat to hang on as an Edmonton fan ... 14th in on ice shooting percentage

Oilers (15 forwards with 200+ minutes)

Milan Lucic was
4th in CF%
5th in SF%
7th in GF%
3rd in xGF%
4th in SCF%
4th in HDCF%
12th in offensive zone starts
10th in on ice shooting percentage

Crazy ... Lucic wasn't sheltered, drove play, and should have been a top five point producer on a bad team.

Will be interesting to watch those numbers in Calgary

Glad you brought this up, Bingo, as I was kind of surprised you didn't mention advanced stats in your earlier post.

It seems curious to me that the haters of this deal seem to completely ignore the advanced statistics comparison of the two players which appear to be a win for the Flames. I'm not sure if they just don't put too much stock in those stats or it doesn't fit their narrative.

This trade was a shocker, no doubt, but I can see how Lucic fits onto our team than Neal does. The contract is the downside but it is difficult to compare apples-to-apples on that component of the trade which results in there being a lot to debate about this trade.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Bingo

My other confusion point is play driving.

Staples earlier this week pointed out that Lucic was one of the Oiler's best in corsi etc. That seemed odd to me so I looked it up and he is.

Fine I thought ... but they must be low impact events ... nope he's up there on scoring chance splits and high danger splits, as well as expected goal splits.

None of that fits with what I saw in Oiler games, but the stats are pretty irrefutable.

Some numbers ...

Flames (14 forwards with 200+ minutes)

James Neal was
12th in CF%
13th in SF%
13th in GF%
13th in xGF%
13th in SCF%
12th in HDCF%
5th in offensive zone starts

His one stat to hang on as an Edmonton fan ... 14th in on ice shooting percentage

Oilers (15 forwards with 200+ minutes)

Milan Lucic was
4th in CF%
5th in SF%
7th in GF%
3rd in xGF%
4th in SCF%
4th in HDCF%
12th in offensive zone starts
10th in on ice shooting percentage

Crazy ... Lucic wasn't sheltered, drove play, and should have been a top five point producer on a bad team.

Will be interesting to watch those numbers in Calgary

The thing that gives me some comfort is the fact I do have a ton of trust in the Flames management group. I truly think Neal was a toxic player in the room. I heard some second hand stuff that I rather not speculate as I have no way of knowing if it was true. Treliving knee this move was going to be hated by the fans so he has to feel confident it was the right move for the team.

There are other optics that go into this deal that have the fans saying it was a fleecing by Holland. Lucic was brought in as a direct Taylor Hall replacement and year 1 all was well. He put up solid numbers and the team made the playoffs. The next 2 years his numbers dried up and the team as a whole sucked. He starts getting a ton of blame and it impacts his confidence.

Neal was brought in to upgrade on Ferland. It was quickly realized we got the upgraded player in Lindholm and Neal really did not fit in the top 6. His historically bad season was somewhat covered up by the historically good season the team had. If the Flames missed the playoffs last year the Neal hate would have been 10x louder. They talked about it frequently on 960 that the team success sheltered the Neal criticism.

If the Flames can turn Frolik into cap space and Brodie/Hamonic into a legit second line RW the second best team in the league will be better next year.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GGG

Are there any McDavid effects there? Do the stars allow you to separate minutes played with McDavid and minutes without them for all players. These numbers appear to suggest that points were scored when he was on the ice but he didn’t get the conventional counting stats

Here are his most common line mates last year:

Even Strength Line Combinations

Freq Line Combination
19.3 BRODZIAK,KYLE - KASSIAN,ZACK - LUCIC,MILAN
9.4 CHIASSON,ALEX - LUCIC,MILAN - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
5.4 LUCIC,MILAN - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN - PULJUJARVI,JESSE
5.3 CAGGIULA,DRAKE - LUCIC,MILAN - STROME,RYAN
5.1 CAVE,COLBY - CURRIE,JOSH - LUCIC,MILAN
3.9 LUCIC,MILAN - MCDAVID,CONNOR - RATTIE,TY
3.7 DRAISAITL,LEON - LUCIC,MILAN - YAMAMOTO,KAILER
3.7 BRODZIAK,KYLE - CURRIE,JOSH - LUCIC,MILAN
3.4 CHIASSON,ALEX - DRAISAITL,LEON - LUCIC,MILAN
3.2 LUCIC,MILAN - PULJUJARVI,JESSE - STROME,RYAN

So Lucic helped drive play while playing without McDavid. Nuge is really good, but even then he spent more time with Brodziak than he did with Nuge.

So while he helped drive play, I can certainly understand why there was no production given the players he was with for most of the year.

[Azhouse]

I hope he brings some scrums after the whistles getting the other teams best players off their game. Maybe he'll bring a little give a crap attitude when games get tougher. I'm tired of the Flames wilting in important games.

A guy can dream can't he...

[Shazam]

The advanced stats say he was a relatively better player than the other players on a team that finished 25th overall. Yippee.

[Owen15]

A question for Locke or one of the legal Beatles in the crowd.

Can Lucic and the Flames sign a letter agreement that is like an addendum to the player agreement agreeing to waive the NMC/NTC solely for the expansion draft? I could see Lucic not wanting to waive it except to be traded to Calgary because he doesn’t want to end up finishing his career in the AHL. I also don’t understand Tre not insisting on Lucic coming without it. So I wonder if there’s something other than a gentleman’s agreement to address the expansion draft. Would this be possible and legally enforceable?

[Titan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's pretty much me.

So having let this digest for 20 hours I'm at this point.

1. I never wanted Lucic on the Flames, yuck
2. I have to keep reminding myself that Neal has left as well, which removes some of the yuck
3. Lucic has the worse contract so you knew Edmonton had to kick something in
4. What Edmonton kicked in doesn't balance this for me so I don't get it
5. I wonder still if the Flames insisted Lucic waive his NMC, but havne't heard so and I'm nervous
6. They do have time to sort that out though including a buy out in two years
7. Lucic is a better fit of two players that don't fit because of physical play and not needing to play top six minutes to contribute
8. Guys like Gaudreau calling Lucic tells me the Flames top to bottom really wanted Neal gone
9. Which certainly pushes me to think it's more than the coach that had a problem with the guy

I am in a similar place.

Neal had to go.

Strike one: Prima donna that would not accept his role on the team.
Strike two: Did not perform his role as a scorer to earn his contract
Strike three: Seems to have a negative effect on the room (like any of us actually know)
Strike four: Will not accept a third line role and earn more ice.
Strike five: Will not contribute where he can despite not scoring ie. sandpaper, leader etc.
Strike six: Made it to finals numerous times and did not close it out. Good playoff experience but not a winner at the end of the day.
Strike seven: Could not even get his #### together for a playoff series, WTH?
Strike eight: Could not get along with the new coach. Who took the team to #2 overall despite the boat anchor of Neal.

Lucic Pluses:

One: Stanley Cup Champion, enough said.
Two: learned leadership from Chara, enough said.
Three: Wants to be in Calgary, even if it is only a means to get out of Mulletville.
Four: (Hoping) He understands he is a 3/4 line player and will willingly accept that role.
Five: BIG mf whose reputation precedes him. Does not fight much cause he does not have to. (Hoping)
Six: Adds a couple of inches to everyone on the team.
Seven: Gio calls him, as expected. However, Johnny called him and most importantly Iggy called him. Speaks massively of his in-room reputation.
Eight: Frees up some cap space, whatever the actual details are.
Nine: He is friends with Big Ern. They rode the GD teacups together. What more do you need to know?
Ten: Gets Neal the f@#k out of town.
Eleven: Gets Neal the F@#k out of town.

I almost threw up in my mouth when I heard it but am now quite liking the deal because of ten and eleven, if nothing else.

I am much more willing to give him a chance as opposed to pouty baby the "Real Deal" (no returns or refunds if performance does not match dumb nickname).

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Owen15

A question for Locke or one of the legal Beatles in the crowd.

Can Lucic and the Flames sign a letter agreement that is like an addendum to the player agreement agreeing to waive the NMC/NTC solely for the expansion draft? I could see Lucic not wanting to waive it except to be traded to Calgary because he doesn’t want to end up finishing his career in the AHL. I also don’t understand Tre not insisting on Lucic coming without it. So I wonder if there’s something other than a gentleman’s agreement to address the expansion draft. Would this be possible and legally enforceable?

That tweet about "NMC paperwork" holding up the deal a few hours before it was made official suggests that hopefully there is something to this

[Titan]

Originally Posted by Azhouse

I hope he brings some scrums after the whistles getting the other teams best players off their game. Maybe he'll bring a little give a crap attitude when games get tougher. I'm tired of the Flames wilting in important games.

A guy can dream can't he...

I see it as Chucky getting them off his game and then Lucic cruising in to keep the other team in line. (Doughty as an example)

I know goons are a dying breed but no one can minimize the impact they have on a game. We just got a pit bull to ride shotgun with MT. That has to help MT play his game.

If nothing else it is more impactful than scowly, pouty Neal doing nothing at all.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I can understand tranny calling it franchise crippling but in my opinion it was the Neal contract that was crippling. Trading for lucic is just an extension of that first awful move.

And I do think it's crippling and I don't think you can win with a 5 million dollar 4th liner and I think a lot of the dissatisfaction with the trade on this board is others posters coming to that same realization.

Maybe tre has a other blockbuster to.reverse this but I don't think so.

I think they had a 5M+ fourth liner regardless as you said.

I support Treliving, but it's hard to fathom how the pro scouting staff could have missed the mark on both Brouwer and Neal.

Now clearly there are some caveats on all these things. Neal has been productive, so I guess without insider knowledge on not working hard in the summer it would be hard to predict the cliff he fell off. Secondly attitude would be hard to measure because he's never had a lack of success pushing him down the roster.

With that said ... the Brouwer contract hurt, doubling down on an older player again seemed crazy. I know most liked the Neal signing the day it happened, but almost all of us worried about 5 years.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by transplant99

For sure it started with that deal and the subsequent on ice play.

This just digs the hole a WHOLE lot bigger though and for a variety of reasons.

Again this is just a bad contract (Neal) being put on steroids.

Truly feels like a move out of desperation and those very rarely ever work out

I don't.

I think they clearly felt the room needed Neal gone and he would never fit. The Lucic for Neal swap makes sense on most levels save for the contract configuration, and the Oilers not paying enough to make the swap in my mind.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by keenan87

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Lucic
Tkachuk-Monahan-Bennett
Mangiapane-Backlund-Frolik
Jankowski-Ryan-Czarnik

Lucic is a first line player now? WTF is going on.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think they had a 5M+ fourth liner regardless as you said.

I support Treliving, but it's hard to fathom how the pro scouting staff could have missed the mark on both Brouwer and Neal.

Now clearly there are some caveats on all these things. Neal has been productive, so I guess without insider knowledge on not working hard in the summer it would be hard to predict the cliff he fell off. Secondly attitude would be hard to measure because he's never had a lack of success pushing him down the roster.

With that said ... the Brouwer contract hurt, doubling down on an older player again seemed crazy. I know most liked the Neal signing the day it happened, but almost all of us worried about 5 years.

Maybe they're just not all that competent.

[CMPunk]

Not that my opinion matters in this chaos, but after sleeping on it, I'm ok with this. Neal wasn't a fit and from what I've heard from people who work with the players, they're glad he's gone. I'll wait til the season starts to give a final judgment, but with the information out there for BT and seeing the positive reactions from guys like Gio and Big Ern, I think we'll be just fine.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by btimbit

That tweet about "NMC paperwork" holding up the deal a few hours before it was made official suggests that hopefully there is something to this

I thought the same, however after reading about how he spoke to basically every former flame there is... I think the holdup was just to approve the initial trade.

For what the flames need:
Lucic > Neal
However.... Lucic’s contract <<<<< Neal’s contract. That’s my only beef.

[Itse]

To me this seems like Treliving is actively trying to find the worst possible aging overpaid winger.

But we'll see.

(I really don't like Lucic, even when he was a better player, and I think he'll be a really expensive healthy scratch by the end of the season, but I can't bring myself to hate this deal that much because Neal should have been a healthy scratch by the end of last season but wasn't.)

[dammage79]

How much did the Flames gain in cap space yesterday with this trade? Pretty much covers the sigining of Mangipane doesnt it?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Glad you brought this up, Bingo, as I was kind of surprised you didn't mention advanced stats in your earlier post.

It seems curious to me that the haters of this deal seem to completely ignore the advanced statistics comparison of the two players which appear to be a win for the Flames. I'm not sure if they just don't put too much stock in those stats or it doesn't fit their narrative.

I think it's likely because those advances stats were completely ignored when posters flamed Lucic over the last few years. Suddenly Lucic is looking better.

But you are correct, advanced stats are often ignored when they don't fit the narrative. But you'll see all fans of all teams do that.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by dammage79

How much did the Flames gain in cap space yesterday with this trade? Pretty much covers the sigining of Mangipane doesnt it?

500k less than Neal