2021 NHL Draft

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don’t get the whole smartest guy in the room thing
moving down isn’t right or wrong in a binary way
It’s entirely situational decision making

From Drunk Uncle:

Here are to odds of drafting a top 6 forward (0.59 PT/GP or 48 pts):
Top 3 pick: 73%
4-6 pick: 41%
7-15 pick: 25%
15-32 pick: 13%
2nd RD: 5%
3rd RD: 2%
4th RD: 1%
5th RD: 2%
6th RD: 1%
7th RD: 1%

So drafting at 12 gives the Flames a 25% chance of drafting a top 6 player. Moving down 4 spots drops that tp a 13% chance but you might get a second round pick with an extra 5% chance of drafting a top 6 player. Moving down 12% to get an extra 5%. There is a reason some guys are ranked so high, pick those guys. By "being the smartest guy in the room" I meant valuing a player that 20 other teams passed on. Guys like Bob McKenzie are usually really good with their rankings so trust guys like him. I still think that if the best goalie in the draft is available at your pick, you take him.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Bob Mckenzie doesn't have a ranking. He aggregates what he is hearing from scouts he surveys. It isn't his personal list. That's why it's so accurate. It's engineered to be that way.
Are you suggesting drafting off of Bob's list?

Every player that teams select have been passed over by every team in front of them. The guy you draft at 12 was passed over by eleven teams. That guy drafted at 21 was passed over by 20.

Let's say you move down from 12 to 14 and pick up a 3rd. That increases your chances from 25% to 25%+2%. Dropping down from 15 to 16 is also unlikely to drop your odds from 25% to 13% since the calcs were made in tiers.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Poe969

From Drunk Uncle:

Here are to odds of drafting a top 6 forward (0.59 PT/GP or 48 pts):
Top 3 pick: 73%
4-6 pick: 41%
7-15 pick: 25%
15-32 pick: 13%
2nd RD: 5%
3rd RD: 2%
4th RD: 1%
5th RD: 2%
6th RD: 1%
7th RD: 1%

So drafting at 12 gives the Flames a 25% chance of drafting a top 6 player. Moving down 4 spots drops that tp a 13% chance but you might get a second round pick with an extra 5% chance of drafting a top 6 player. Moving down 12% to get an extra 5%. There is a reason some guys are ranked so high, pick those guys. By "being the smartest guy in the room" I meant valuing a player that 20 other teams passed on. Guys like Bob McKenzie are usually really good with their rankings so trust guys like him. I still think that if the best goalie in the draft is available at your pick, you take him.

Does that take into account the fact that many players are defensemen and goalies?

Because it honestly doesn't seem right to me. Just looking at the 2010, 2011, 2014, even the 2017 draft, it looks like almost all the forwards in that range became top 6, if not 1st line forwards.
Maybe it's because 48 points is quite a bit to average over a career. Many players spend 4 years on the 2nd line, and then 4 years on the third line, thus lowering their average point per game.
Even a Hall of Famer like Patrick Marleau only averages 55 points per 82 games. So he barely makes the cut I guess.

[Sandman]

LW Ryan St.Louis,5'10"168lbs (USNTDP Juniors): 25gp/7g/7a/14pts, along with 0pts in 5 U18 games. The son of Martin St. Louis has his father's drive and passion for hockey-he's a hard-worker with a high motor, and high-compete. He's a fantastic passer, with top-end playmaking skills. He sees the ice well and makes crafty passes. RSL can be explosive and shifty in possession, with good puck-control to deke around or through defenders. He's willing to take the puck to hard areas, and exhibits great puck support. Smooth skater, with good agility that he applies in his relentless forechecking. Uses his stick well in 50/50 battles, and to take away passing lanes. His footwork and gaining inside body position wins him most of his physical confrontations-he's not physical, but doesn't shy away from contact. He consistently puts himself in good positions to be a quality pass option for teammates, and he can create his own space. His shot might be his best asset, and he uses it often-he's a threat to score at any time. Doesn't need a lot of space to get it off, and he's patient in waiting for the best option to shoot. His shot is hard, and heavy.

RSL is not much of a factor defensively, and there's a lack of effort in his game when he doesn't have the puck. He doesn't take away much time or space in the D zone, and doesn't apply enough pressure on opponents-he makes it too easy. He still gets knocked off the puck, so he needs to get much stronger. His decision-making, and vision leave a lot to be desired sometimes, particularly in the neutral and defensive zones. If he gets selected, it will be in the later rounds, but to me-he sure doesn't put up a lot of offense, for an offensive player. He still has some potential as a middle-6 player in the NHL, but he needs plenty of development time, which he'll get at Northeastern University, starting next year.

[Sandman]

LHD Henry Nelson,6'1"174 (Maple Grove High,USHS-MN): 23gp/11g/35a/46pts. Played 6 games in the USHL, posting 2 points-he was drafted 16th overall by Lincoln in the 2019 USHL Futures Draft. Top-scorer amongst Minnesota HS defensemen. Joins rushes, and is effective in all 3 zones. Strong 4-way mobility, smooth and effortless acceleration. He's athletic, and has strong edges-he's agile and quick. Impressive shot, accurate and powerful-he changes the angles to get around blocks, and consistently hits the net. He knows when to shoot, and when to look for other options by opening up seams. Strong patience, and poise with the puck, even under pressure. Doesn't give up possession. Nelson has excellent vision, and always finds open space for his quick, accurate passes. He can unleash stretch-passes to start breakouts, but he often leads the rush himself. He knows when he should pinch to create another passing option, but he's quick to get back in position. Gets into lanes to block passes and shots, and is just plain good at suppressing chances. He maintains a tight gap, and defends well with his stick.

Nelson is "B" rated by Central Scouting, meaning they expect him to be taken in the 2nd, or 3rd round. He could easily turn into a bottom-4, reliable, two-way defenseman in the NHL, but he needs work on many aspects of his defensive game. The good news is that he chose the right school to commit to-Notre Dame, where they play a very tight defensive system. This will be the perfect place for him to develop.

[Sandman]

C/LW Connor Trenholm,6'1"192lbs (Cape Breton,QMJHL): 37gp/10g/10a/20pts,18PIM. Cole Harbour kid is a physical power-forward with size, energy, and high-compete. Plays a high paced, hard working style. August birthday, so he's one of the younger players in the draft. Trenholm has great defensive awareness-keeps tight coverage, and annoys opponents by not letting them have space. He throws his body around, and likes to hit. Competes in dirty areas, plays well along the boards, uses his size to win 50/50 battles, and attacks the net. He's not the fastest, but has decent speed and agility, and good stickhandling to match, which gives him the ability to effectively transport the puck. Moves around the offensive zone to open space to make himself available for passes. He's a good shooter, with a hard, accurate shot, and displays good hands around the net. His passing game gets mixed results-sometimes crisp and accurate, other times missing the mark.

Not sure if it's a concern that would hurt his draft stock, but he missed 3 years of minor hockey with a heart issue. He gets a "C" grade from Central Scouting, meaning he's expected to be chosen in the 4th-6th rounds.

[Sandman]

C Maros Jedlicka,6'1"186lbs (HKM Zvolen U20,SVK): 2gp/4g/1a/5pts, incredible numbers that earned him a promotion to the top Slovakian league, where he posted 15gp/1g/3a/4pts. Great speed, he pushes the pace of the game, and plays with a high-tempo. Great edges and agility in turns-he has moves that make defenders look silly, and impressive puckhandling prowess. He's proficient at controlled exits and entries-and upon entering, he immediately goes to work finding lanes to pass. His puck control is a huge asset of his. Good at reading the play, and his passing is quick and accurate. Finds the soft spots to make himself an option for a pass. Drives the net hard, and has a heavy shot. Pressures opponents defensively, and forces them to change their play-exhibits high awareness in his own zone. Jedlicka needs to learn to use his teammates better-right now, he's much more of a shooter than playmaker. He can hold on to the puck much too long, leading to turnovers. Look for him in the later rounds.

[Sandman]

LHD Dylan Gratton,6'0"176lbs (Youngstown,USHL): 47p/4g/13a/17pts,20PIM. Highest-scoring D on the worst team (and lowest scoring) in the USHL, with a +/- of -73. He should really get some credit for his numbers. Tied for 30th amongst D, 7th most for D under the age of 18 (17th in p/gp), ahead of Guillaume Richard, Henry Nelson, Roman Schmidt, Carter Schade, Jake Martin, and Ethan Straky. Plays a mostly defensive-minded game, making simple, smart plays with calmness and poise-he never panics.

Gratton is a good skater, with a nice first 3 steps, and great edges to make sharp cuts and change direction to throw off attackers. He has the speed to join the rush to provide another option, and get back into position at the point quickly. He defends well against the rush, and makes solid reads in the defensive zone. Keeps an active stick, with superb placement to pokecheck, block lanes, and take possession. He makes sure he keeps his area covered, suppresses chances well, and is always on the right side of the puck. His defensive awareness might be his biggest asset-he knows where to be to take away time, space, and options, and turn defense into offence. Excellent vision, his passing is extremely accurate, even under duress, and he can connect with stretch-passes. His stickhandling is sound, and has good puck-protection skills. Good shot, that's hard and accurate. He can make entries and exits with control, and can move efficiently through the neutral zone with the puck, or find teammates for breakout passes-even when under pressure. Battles in the corners, along the wall, and in front of his net, but could use more aggressiveness and intensity in doing so, in order to win more battles.

Gratton has some untapped offense, and will need time to properly develop it. He needs to learn when to activate and pinch, and when to be conservative-he can pinch too early, giving up odd-man rushes. His puck-control is not as consistent when carrying deep into the offensive zone-he tends to lose possession. He could stand to develop more of a physical edge as well. He projects as a bottom-4, two-way D with special teams time. Committed to Penn State. 4th-6th round.

[Sandman]

C/LW Tyler Haskins,6'1"168lbs (Sioux Falls,USHL): 51gp/9g/18a/27pts,36PIM. He's still young, with a July birthday. Put up numbers on the second-worst team in the USHL, with the second-lowest GF, and the second worst +/- with -50. He was still 13th overall in scoring for players under 18. Haskins owns an all-around impressive offensive game. He's got a good motor, he brings energy, and competes hard. Creative and efficient in getting pucks to teammates in high-danger, and creates chances for his team.

Haskins has a quick release on a hard, accurate shot that he can get off from anywhere in the zone. Plays a grinding, physical game-he'll throw hits to dislodge and win pucks, or to just make his presence felt. Good skater, with nice open-ice speed, and sharp edges and agility. He moves quickly around the ice, and through traffic. Great around the net, he finds the open spots to go to and make himself available for passes, rebounds, and tips. Works hard in the slot, and has good hand-eye co-ordination. He's able to make quick, smart decisions. He's not afraid of the battle areas, and doesn't back down to anyone-even larger opponents. Puts himself in good positions all over the ice to receive passes, and exhibits good puck control-especially along the boards. He has the vision to make quick passes to exit the zone. Puts pressure on puck-carriers, giving them little space to work with. Uses an active stick, and his physicality to close attackers off along the wall.

Haskins' defensive awareness is lacking a bit in certain areas-he's adequate, but could be more impactful if he was more aggressive. Needs more consistency, and needs to place more importance in playing equally hard in all three zones, every shift, every game. Has some interesting tools, and maybe a high floor, if he can shore up his defensive game-he'll have time, as he's committed to the University of Michigan. Later rounds.

[Sandman]

LW/RW Joona Korhonen,6'1"185lbs (Ilves U20): 24gp/9g/12a/21pts,34PIM, and also had stops in the Liiga, and the Mestis, which is quite impressive. Power-winger who gives 100% all the time-good motor, and high compete. He's also a quality two-way player. 13th in U20 league in scoring for players under 18. Good speed, excellent acceleration. Backchecks hard, applies pressure to puck-carriers in all areas. High defensive awareness-supports his D down low, and employs an active stick to break up plays, and cause turnovers. He's a strong forechecker, and can play a physical game. Processes the game well, as his head is always on a swivel, surveying the ice and locating open space. Good passer and playmaker, and an impressive stickhandler. Owns a good shot with a deceptive release-hard and accurate, he can pick corners.

JK could use a bit more power and velocity on his shot for the next level, but there's big upside here, and a potential top-6 winger. He may have a high floor as well, as an effective bottom-6 physical role-player with special teams time. He could stand to be a better presence on the forecheck, as he sometimes lets up and doesn't finish his check. I'm thinking 5th-7th round.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don’t get the whole smartest guy in the room thing
moving down isn’t right or wrong in a binary way
It’s entirely situational decision making

IMO the "smartest guy in the room" thing goes both ways. Thinking you are the smartest guy in the room led to trading down to pick Jankowski at 21 when players like Wilson, Teravainen, and Hertl were right there for the taking at 14.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

IMO the "smartest guy in the room" thing goes both ways. Thinking you are the smartest guy in the room led to trading down to pick Jankowski at 21 when players like Wilson, Teravainen, and Hertl were right there for the taking at 14.

…… and the current number one goalie in the league. Damn it.

[Sandman]

LW Jakub Kos,6'3"187lbs (Ilves U20):32gp/5g/13a/18pts,24PIM. Czech player, playing in Finland, got to play for his country in the U-18s, posting 2pts in 5 games, with 12PIM. Plays for low-scoring, 12th placed Ilves. This player knows his strengths and weaknesses, and excels playing his game. Makes up for a lack of offensive skill by playing with grit, compete, and intensity. Meat-and-potatoes player.

Kos has high levels of awareness in all zones, but he's mostly a defensive specialist, and a good player without the puck-he knows where the puck is going, and how to best break up possession. He's focused and determined, with a high-motor, and provides energy for his team. Plays a hard, heavy game-competes hard in greasy areas, and initiates contact. Applies hard pressure defensively, using his grit and physicality, and plays with a mean edge. Forces mistakes and turnovers, moreso than the average defensive-forward, and has high defensive awareness. Breaks up plays, blocks shots, and stops opponents from clearing the zone. Kos can find soft spots on offense to make himself a passing option, and forechecks hard. Joins the rush and goes to the net where he's quite effective at getting tips, rebounds, and garbage goals. He can be an asset on the cycle, as he moves the puck well. He skates quite well, and is quick enough to help out in transition-he can put together a nice stretch pass, and he can rush it out too. Excellent on the PK-keeps pucks deep.

Kos' stickhandling can look a little wonky and robotic at times-he can carry the puck at this level, but he needs to improve, if he wants an NHL job. He has a limited ceiling offensively-he's not a shooter or a playmaker, but he's big and mobile-although there's room to top-up all aspects of his skating, particularly his explosiveness and top-speed. He has genuine NHL upside as a bottom-six defensive specialist, with a power game and PK ability. Watch for him in the later rounds.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

…… and the current number one goalie in the league. Damn it.

Sure glad Weisbrod is in Vancouver.

[iloveicedhockey]

I know it's been said before but I appreciate all the effort people go to for this thread. I genuinely have no clue about juniors so it's nice to have knowledgeable people around.

I look forward to getting irrationality attached to Sillinger as the draft approaches, only to feel downbeat when the flames pick someone else who's probably pretty good too, who I've never watched either.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

I know it's been said before but I appreciate all the effort people go to for this thread. I genuinely have no clue about juniors so it's nice to have knowledgeable people around.

I look forward to getting irrationality attached to Sillinger as the draft approaches, only to feel downbeat when the flames pick someone else who's probably pretty good too, who I've never watched either.

This is exactly where I am at now.

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Bob Mckenzie doesn't have a ranking. He aggregates what he is hearing from scouts he surveys. It isn't his personal list. That's why it's so accurate. It's engineered to be that way.
Are you suggesting drafting off of Bob's list?

Every player that teams select have been passed over by every team in front of them. The guy you draft at 12 was passed over by eleven teams. That guy drafted at 21 was passed over by 20.

Let's say you move down from 12 to 14 and pick up a 3rd. That increases your chances from 25% to 25%+2%. Dropping down from 15 to 16 is also unlikely to drop your odds from 25% to 13% since the calcs were made in tiers.

So McKenzie's list isn't his because he uses other people's lists for info. Either way, the list is fairly accurate. I'm not saying to really use it as a bible but ya, use it as a guideline. And as for 11 people passing on 12, what I mean is that at the 12th pick, player M, is the top remaining prospect so now player M is the top available prospect but don't pass him to pick player U. The top available prospect is what is important. And yes, most of this is because of the Janko pick and I know it was different management but the same lesson applies. The Flames drafted Bennett because he was the top available player, it sucks that he didn't pan out and it's easy to say they could have picked Pasternak but picking Bennett was the best move to make at the time. The Flames could have picked Wilson, Teravinen or Vashilevski but instead traded down to get Janko. Neither situation worked out for the Flames but the Janko pick stings a lot more because the could have drafted higher ranked prospects.

All I really mean is that if you have a chance to get the best available prospect, get that prospect. They're ranked that high for a reason. It's better to miss out by drafting the higher ranked player than it is to pass on high ranked players to draft a lower ranked player.

[Nelson]

I understand why people are saying don’t overthink it. Just take the best player available. I agree in most cases. I think the Flames should only trade down if someone offers them a huge haul, they have a number of players they feel equally confident in selecting, or they have intel that suggests their guy will still be there at the spot to which they’re trading down. If, for example, Sillinger, Chaz, Lysell or McTavish is their guy, and that player is available at 12, then don’t trade down to 16 unless you know the player will be available at 16 because you know other teams want other players.

I don’t know. I’m not sure it’s a good idea to only have one approach. Last year, I’d say trading down was brilliant. That doesn’t mean it’ll be a good idea this year or even very often.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

I look forward to getting irrationality attached to Sillinger as the draft approaches, only to feel downbeat when the flames pick someone else who's probably pretty good too, who I've never watched either.

There is probably a very good chance the Flames pass on Sillinger if he's available at 12 and I'm okay with that providing they don't go off the board with a player that was rated late 1st round or 2nd round. Reaching from the consensus usually leads to busts as the only player that really comes to mind for me that was picked considerably higher than consensus rankings and turned into a very good player is Scheifele.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Poe969

So McKenzie's list isn't his because he uses other people's lists for info. Either way, the list is fairly accurate. I'm not saying to really use it as a bible but ya, use it as a guideline. And as for 11 people passing on 12, what I mean is that at the 12th pick, player M, is the top remaining prospect so now player M is the top available prospect but don't pass him to pick player U. The top available prospect is what is important. And yes, most of this is because of the Janko pick and I know it was different management but the same lesson applies. The Flames drafted Bennett because he was the top available player, it sucks that he didn't pan out and it's easy to say they could have picked Pasternak but picking Bennett was the best move to make at the time. The Flames could have picked Wilson, Teravinen or Vashilevski but instead traded down to get Janko. Neither situation worked out for the Flames but the Janko pick stings a lot more because the could have drafted higher ranked prospects.

All I really mean is that if you have a chance to get the best available prospect, get that prospect. They're ranked that high for a reason. It's better to miss out by drafting the higher ranked player than it is to pass on high ranked players to draft a lower ranked player.

I think if you set the move down and take your third or fourth best player of the available as your goal you get in trouble.

You're constantly settling for less than what you could have gotten, in exchange for an additional say 3rd round pick.

But if you honestly have three players in the same tier, and you have some idea of what the teams behind you are going to take, and you think two of the three that you see equal should be available than it's not the smartest guy in the room, it's the logical guys at the draft table.

You just do it.

When you hold the pick that's up I think teams are more open about who they want to select creating more certainty.