2021 NHL Draft

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Because he was a mediocre prospect up until this year. Everything points to an above average year where everything went right. Some rankings still have him at the end of the 1st/early 2nd. If we are trading down for him we better get a damn good return.

He was almost PPG in the USHL in his draft -1, not sure how that makes him mediocre, was about the same PPG as the other guys projected to go in tbr 1st round that played in the USHL in the draft -1 year.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I think it's a draft like no other.
You have players that played a lot
You have players that played a lot but not in their typical league
You have players that played a little
You have players that barely played or didn't play at all

So I think you have some upside but more questions than ever.
Where the draft is weak in my view is at the top end. But then I think there is a sizable cluster of quality players throughout the first round - but again with more question marks and risks than is typical.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think it's a draft like no other.
You have players that played a lot
You have players that played a lot but not in their typical league
You have players that played a little
You have players that barely played or didn't play at all

So I think you have some upside but more questions than ever.
Where the draft is weak in my view is at the top end. But then I think there is a sizable cluster of quality players throughout the first round - but again with more question marks and risks than is typical.

This all screams for as many lottery tickets as possible, so I think trading down makes sense. If you are trading a player for picks, take multiple picks this year, as opposed to looking for higher fewer picks next year (not that the option is better, just how I would value it - so two 2nds this year might be preferable to a late first next year... ir this year, for that matter). What if you hit on a Jamie Benn?

[Tacoman]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I have similar concerns about Sillinger. Jumping from major junior to the USHL is step backwards to me. It would be like going from the WHL to the BCHL. You should see some improved numbers and some dominance at the new level. Not sure there is enough there considering the change in competition. I would stay away from a guy who made that move IMO. There may be larger translation problems. To me, players should always be pressing forward to find success, not going backwards.

That would be a good point if he hadn't shown good numbers in the WHL the year before. His 16 year old numbers in the W were fantastic.

[dammage79]

I mean, when it comes time for the Flames to pick and someone offers a good smattering of picks to move up 2 spots, I don't see why not. You're just limiting yourself a bit in choice.

Like if someone wanted to trade up and grab Sillinger, I think the Flames may be content to trade down and snag Raty and get another bullet in the chamber.

[ForeverFlameFan]

How low are you willing to go when trading down? I'd say no where past 20... Unless you're getting an additional 1st in the 1st round. It depends on the scouts. Is there a top 12 for the Flames? Or is there a top 18/top 22/top 24, and what are the tiers?

[Jiri Hrdina]

I think there is a ledge around 16. At least that's my "uneducated out the arse not based on much" opinion.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

How low are you willing to go when trading down? I'd say no where past 20... Unless you're getting an additional 1st in the 1st round. It depends on the scouts. Is there a top 12 for the Flames? Or is there a top 18/top 22/top 24, and what are the tiers?

I don't think there's a set formula.

Like last year they moved down twice for a total of what 5 spots? I'm sure they didn't think they could move that far on the first deal, but then some wildcards were taken and they could move again.

If they have say six names that they're happy with at 12, and four are left when 12 comes up theoretically they could move back to 15 and be happy.

But if the team they are dealing with is up front on who they're moving up to take and that players isn't one of the four ... suddenly 16 would work.

Last year was a little nerve wracking but getting two thirds for moving twice was pretty solid business. With the upheaval in this draft they may back up twice again and end up past 20 and still get a guy they want.

Could be a draft where you move down with your first and up with your second to get two players you want.

[dammage79]

No lower than the Rangers pick IMO. That is the end of the window for the tier they're picking in in my guesstimate.

[shutout]

Maybe drop down to #19 in total if you are comfortable taking Cossa with that pick if he is still there. I think that the group of forwards that would be in the Flames range will be taken between 12-18.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Tacoman

That would be a good point if he hadn't shown good numbers in the WHL the year before. His 16 year old numbers in the W were fantastic.

That's kind of the point. He put up really good numbers in the WHL the year before, so should have put up better numbers taking the step backward this past year. It's like being in double A ball and going to A ball. If you're a player you better be ripping the cover off the ball and showing that you are better than everyone in this league. Did we see that level of domination from Sillinger? I don't think so. That's a red flag for me.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by shutout

Maybe drop down to #19 in total if you are comfortable taking Cossa with that pick if he is still there. I think that the group of forwards that would be in the Flames range will be taken between 12-18.

To draft 18 and take Cossa from Edmonton would be pretty funny.

[SuperMatt18]

It's a bit weird. With the limited games, and with the unbalanced schedule in the CHL it's tough to say if limited CHL games or USHL was a step up or down in quality last year.

There were a lot of highly touted draft eligible players playing in the USHL this year.

I agree though that when looking at the guys in the Flames range he had the smallest improvement from his D-1 to his D0, but he also had the best D-1 season which might be worth something considering how bizarre the D0 season was for all these guys.

Sillinger
NHLe D-1: 27
NHLe D0: 34

Coronato:
NHLe D-1: 20
NHLe D0: 38

Guenther:
NHLe D-1: 25
NHLe D0: 49

McTavish:
NHLe D-1: 18
NHLe D0: N/A

Lucius
NHLe D-1: 14
NHLe D0: 35

Lysell
NHLe D-1: 5
NHLe D0: 21

[Tkachukwagon]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1412525004726620169

I can’t articulate it, but I think Power at #1 is a mistake for Buffalo and not something they actually need.

[Poe969]

I hate the trading down idea. Trust your scouts and take the best player, don't settle for what's left from a group. Someone will be drafted way higher than anyone thinks and a really good prospect will be available at 12. Get a high end prospect, people use the analogy of "more darts" and I get it because you get more but the issue is that you're the those darts from farther back. Stop trying to be the smartest person in the room and make the smart choice, let 1 or 2 other GM's try to outsmart everyone and capitalize on their mistakes.

At 12 they can get a top 10 pick.

[dammage79]

Screw it. My mock draft:
1. BUF Eklund
2. SEA Power
3. ANA Beniers
4. NJ Hughes
5. CLB Johnson
6. DET Wallstedt
7. SJ Cossa
8. LA Clarke
9. VAN Guenther
10. OTT Sillinger
11. CHI McTavish
12. CGY Raty (I'd take Lucius or Lysell before Raty but...)
13. PHI Lysell
14. DAL Edvinsson
15. NYR Lucius
16. STL Lambos
17. WPG Ceulmans
18. NSH Rosen
19. EDM Coronoto
20. Boston Pastujov
21. MIN Pinelli
22. DET Robertson
23. FLA Svechkov
24. CLB Bolduc
25. MIN Chibrikov
26. CAR Bourgault
27. COL Dean
28. NJ Samoskevich
29. LV Othman
30. MTL Stillman
31. CLB Morrow

Kind of threw mud at the wall after pick 23.

[Reggie Dunlop]

He's Fab!

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I hate the trading down idea. Trust your scouts and take the best player, don't settle for what's left from a group. Someone will be drafted way higher than anyone thinks and a really good prospect will be available at 12. Get a high end prospect, people use the analogy of "more darts" and I get it because you get more but the issue is that you're the those darts from farther back. Stop trying to be the smartest person in the room and make the smart choice, let 1 or 2 other GM's try to outsmart everyone and capitalize on their mistakes.

At 12 they can get a top 10 pick.

I don’t get the whole smartest guy in the room thing
moving down isn’t right or wrong in a binary way
It’s entirely situational decision making

[dammage79]

It's just a matter of capitalizing on on the fly scenarios. A team wants Edvinsson so badly but they know he won't make it the pick after CGYs. CGY trades down 2 or 3 spots and know they'll get one of their guys. It's an easy scenario.

[Derek Sutton]

Originally Posted by Tkachukwagon

https://twitter.com/user/status/1412525004726620169

I can’t articulate it, but I think Power at #1 is a mistake for Buffalo and not something they actually need.

Staying in NCAAA until he becomes UFA. Can live off the in coming endorsement deals.