Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Gaudreau grew up thirty-eight minutes from Philadelphia, so I don't think anyone would begrudge him for wanting to go home. Who knows what will happen? The one thing I don't want to happen is also the most likely, in that the Flames go out in the first or second round of the playoffs and he walks away for nothing.

Most likely according to what exactly?

[MegaErtz]

Well, probability. The Flames have had very little success in the playoffs over the last thirty-two years, advancing past the second round only once. I understand that this is a fan forum and fans are more likely to be hopeful and optimistic about the future, but I see the current group of players as a bubble playoff team. I think we're likely to get bounced in the first round or two unless Markstrom gets hot at the right time. I also think that if Gaudreau wanted to stay in Calgary, he would have already signed and not risk getting injured this late in his contract year.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Most likely according to what exactly?

Team Negative on here. They will never stop beating that drum until he signs. Then they will move on to Tkachuk and St Louis.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Can't see Johnny on another team in Canada.

Is Marner's contract the benchmark for Johnny? What is Marner's salary?

Marner and Panarin are the two closest comparables in terms of size, style, production and money.

Marner is $10.6, Panarin is $11.6.

I suspect Gaudreau ends up somewhere in the middle.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Well, probability. The Flames have had very little success in the playoffs over the last thirty-two years, advancing past the second round only once. I understand that this is a fan forum and fans are more likely to be hopeful and optimistic about the future, but I see the current group of players as a bubble playoff team. I think we're likely to get bounced in the first round or two unless Markstrom gets hot at the right time. I also think that if Gaudreau wanted to stay in Calgary, he would have already signed and not risk getting injured this late in his contract year.

None of what you said has anything to do with probability. Just I think this and I think that. Your negative experience as a fan is not allowing you to see clearly on this one. I'm fine with your perspective as it's just a fan expressing themselves and their thoughts and opinions, all of which could end up happening. But stop pretending you have any claim to "realism" or what is probable. Just a fan living in your own head.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Marner and Panarin are the two closest comparables in terms of size, style, production and money.

Marner is $10.6, Panarin is $11.6.

I suspect Gaudreau ends up somewhere in the middle.

My guess is he will be offered something like $12M x 7 on the open market, but since the Flames can offer him 8 years, he signs here for $11M x 8 since it's a larger contract overall and more guaranteed money.

[Rutuu]

Gaudreau at $11m means less money for future Stajans, Boumas, Brouwers, Neals, etc. Plus it puts a squeeze on us so we keep our 2-4th round picks instead of dealing them consistently for depth Dmen.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

Gaudreau at $11m means less money for future Stajans, Boumas, Brouwers, Neals, etc. Plus it puts a squeeze on us so we keep our 2-4th round picks instead of dealing them consistently for depth Dmen.

My thoughts exactly. Having cap space is great. Having a core worth paying is better though

Teams don't fail because they overpaid their stars... they fail because they overpaid guys that they overrated and didn't understand how replaceable they were. GMs fall in love with guys and feel compelled to spend every cent they have based off of emotion and envisioning best case scenarios. The main thing that separates good GMs from the rest is possessing the discipline to not fall in love. Vegas does this better than anyone but even they outsmarted themselves when they traded for Lehner. Not many bad moves for Vegas operating like that but treating Fleury like they did probably upset alot of their guys and for no good reason.

Chicago was ####ed as soon as they decided Toews was worth that hit. It wasn't because of Kane obviously... that guy is one of the all time greats. Bowman painted himself into a corner that 99% of people would've found themselves in. I wonder if he ever understood how important Panarin's elite skill was compared to Toews and his intangibles going forward. Probably not considering what he traded him for. He pretty much had to sign Toews though... not really blaming him there. He would've been panned everywhere had he moved Toews and ownership probably wouldn't have let him do it anyway. Even so... this team had Panarin and Kane in their prime and somehow convinced themselves that panarin wouldn't be missed. Looking back Seabrook was obviously their biggest mistake. But there were others taking up space that should've been condensed into panarin's new cap hit. Winning 3 cups you have to reward the core guys I guess... but they went overboard imo and it cost them a superstar and cemented a decade of mediocrity

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Marner and Panarin are the two closest comparables in terms of size, style, production and money.

Marner is $10.6, Panarin is $11.6.

I suspect Gaudreau ends up somewhere in the middle.

Many are seeing that range as a barrier to wanting to sign him, I see it as a win if he he's wiling to sign at that without testing free agency.

You don't falter building teams in this league by paying superstars big money, you falter by paying middling/aging support players $4-$6mil/year.

[jayswin]

Having Tkachuck and Gadureau at $20mil-ish/year together is fine, you just can't have 3rd liners and depth defensemen at $4-$6mil. I would hate to lose either one because of this. That's bad management if it happens.

[GreenLantern2814]

Between all our UFAs, RFAs, Brouwer’s buyout ending, and assuming a Lucic retirement, they look like they’ll have just under $35M in cap space.

A Monahan buyout or trade with retention puts that number close to $40M.

[Roof-Daddy]

I've said before, if Gaudreau and/or Tkachuk leave it won't be because of a lack of cap space. It'll be because they preferred to go elsewhere rather than stay in Calgary.

Building a new arena might have helped the cause.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Building a new arena might have helped the cause.

Spending $600 million to make it easier to fit two players under the cap? Sounds like a legit investment.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I've said before, if Gaudreau and/or Tkachuk leave it won't be because of a lack of cap space. It'll be because they preferred to go elsewhere rather than stay in Calgary.

Building a new arena might have helped the cause.

Well our owners were looking for an out from this deal due to current material costs and they got it, so...

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Spending $600 million to make it easier to fit two players under the cap? Sounds like a legit investment.

Oh, good one.

What is the point of a stupid comment like this? lol

There are many, many reasons to spend the money to build a new facility.

Making your team a more attractive destination for high end players is just one of them.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Oh, good one.

What is the point of a stupid comment like this? lol

There are many, many reasons to spend the money to build a new facility.

Making your team a more attractive destination for high end players is just one of them.

For sure, and not to get off track, but it is clear that ownership wanted out of this current deal due to the price of materials during the pandemic, and they found an easy way out. And to be honest, they were right to want it.

I guess just a counterpoint to the idea (not sure if you were insulting this or not) that the city didn't want the deal and ruined everything, while ownership was gung ho to get shovels in the ground. It was clearly not a good time to start building an arena for Flames ownership or the city. They are business men and made a business move to kick this down the road until costs come down, regardless of what the local media in their pocket suggested otherwise.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by jayswin

For sure, and not to get off track, but it is clear that ownership wanted out of this current deal due to the price of materials during the pandemic, and they found an easy way out. And to be honest, they were right to want it.

I guess just a counterpoint to the idea (not sure if you were insulting this or not) that the city didn't want the deal and ruined everything, while ownership was gung ho to get shovels in the ground. It was clearly not a good time to start building an arena for Flames ownership or the city. They are business men and made a business move to kick this down the road until costs come down, regardless of what the local media in their pocket suggested otherwise.

I don't know the ins and outs of the arena drama to be honest.

I haven't followed it, and I don't really know who is at fault or the reasons behind why it really got turfed.

But the bottom line is the Flames already have a tougher time than most teams attracting and keeping high end talent. It's not a secret, and having the oldest, most run down facilities in the league doesn't help that.

If they want to increase their chances of building a sustainable contender, they need to build a new arena, it should have been done long ago.

Now, two of the best players we've had in the last 30 years are on the brink of being able to walk away as free agents if they so choose, and my only point was that having a fancy new arena to call home would have helped the cause for keeping them around. Which is most likely true.

But then some drive-by superstar decided to build a strawman because he thinks he's funny and must have an axe to grind on the arena topic.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Between all our UFAs, RFAs, Brouwer’s buyout ending, and assuming a Lucic retirement, they look like they’ll have just under $35M in cap space.

A Monahan buyout or trade with retention puts that number close to $40M.

Why assume a Lucic retirement when it’s so unlikely?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Why assume a Lucic retirement when it’s so unlikely?

Lucic receives a signing bonus of $3M on July 1 and has a base salary next year of $1M.

He’ll be 34 years old, his role will continue to be that if a 4th line face puncher.

The man has a young family and $67M in career earnings.

I get that playing in the NHL is awesome, but considering he was on the verge of hanging them up a couple years ago, I don’t think he’s necessarily keen to fight people for a paltry million.

Especially if the reward is that he gets to fight people again for $1-2M.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Lucic receives a signing bonus of $3M on July 1 and has a base salary next year of $1M.

He’ll be 34 years old, his role will continue to be that if a 4th line face puncher.

The man has a young family and $67M in career earnings.

I get that playing in the NHL is awesome, but considering he was on the verge of hanging them up a couple years ago, I don’t think he’s necessarily keen to fight people for a paltry million.

Especially if the reward is that he gets to fight people again for $1-2M.

He can't accept the $3M (which is part of his 2022-2023 salary) and then walk away from playing. He accepts that money. While it's called a "signing bonus" it's considered salary for that season, just gets paid early.