2025 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Skaloper]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

The Steve Phillips article on TSN pretty neatly summed up where I think the Jays went wrong over this whole contract.


"If the Jays had made Guerrero a priority, they would not have been stuck riding the coattails of Soto’s $765 million deal with the Mets. Everything changed once Soto signed. A deal that could be made with Guerrero in November was no longer available in February. That’s where Toronto’s front office went wrong and that is why Guerrero is now empowered to test the market

The Jays have been chasing the Guerrero deal for a couple of years. Every time they engaged with Guerrero’s agent, the asking price has been too high. But each subsequent time they engaged the price that was asked for in the previous negotiation didn’t sound so bad."

It's hard because if you go back a year ago Vlad was coming off two years with sub par numbers for his talent. I'm guessing the asking price has pretty much always been the same so it was justified that the Jays held back before seeing that Vlad could return to his former self. With Soto coming up Vlad was always going to wait to see what he would get but it just made the whole process that much worse for the Jays.

Time to go see if we can find another Jose Bautista ...

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Things will be alright. As long as they maximize the returns for Bo and Vlad.

That train has left the station, both players are testing the market regardless of what happens, and you rarely get good returns for rentals.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Things will be alright. As long as they maximize the returns for Bo and Vlad.

Ummmm unless you have a Time Machine to go back in time , you realize the season is starting and they aren’t moving these guys

We will be getting 2 compensation picks in the draft unless we are way out of it by the all star game , and if that’s the case it’s most likely because one or both of them are having horrible years

[KelVarnsen]

I honestly don't know if I want to even bother with this season. Sure they could be better but it feels like it will be watching them burn.

[SuperMatt18]

The Soto signing hurts the Jays in a trade too.

Last year the Yankees give up a bunch for Soto - only for him to still walk at the end of the season.

Will make teams even more gun shy to trade a haul for a pending UFA...if the Yankees can't keep a guy like that then who can.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The Soto signing hurts the Jays in a trade too.

Last year the Yankees give up a bunch for Soto - only for him to still walk at the end of the season.

Will make teams even more gun shy to trade a haul for a pending UFA...if the Yankees can't keep a guy like that then who can.

Flip side is the Yankees were Freddie Freeman not playing through that injury away from winning the WS. If you think you're close a year of Vlad could absolutely be the thing that puts you over the top. Mets seem like the most likely buyers there to me.

[CroCop]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Things will be alright. As long as they maximize the returns for Bo and Vlad.

They will get sweet F all for either of these guys now. Especially with the clowns they have running this crap.

[Roof-Daddy]

lol

What is up with all you guys in here?

You're all acting like we're about to lose Aaron Judge in his prime.

1. Vlad isn't gone yet, he's gonna play this season and he's a FA when it's over so hopefully he lights it up because he will be motivated.

2. Even if he gets to FA it doesn't mean he's gone for sure. If he thinks he's worth nearly Soto money then let him go FA and see what offers come in. Unless he has an MVP type season in 2025 he's not getting offers like that IMO. Once he and the Jays get a gauge on what his market value is around the league they can always re-engage. They are just too far apart right now and I tend to believe the Jays valuation is much closer to reality.

[Jason14h]

Forgive us for believing Jays management is incompetent vs playing 4D chess

I guess we have just been watching the last 7 years!

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

lol

What is up with all you guys in here?

You're all acting like we're about to lose Aaron Judge in his prime.

1. Vlad isn't gone yet, he's gonna play this season and he's a FA when it's over so hopefully he lights it up because he will be motivated.

2. Even if he gets to FA it doesn't mean he's gone for sure. If he thinks he's worth nearly Soto money then let him go FA and see what offers come in. Unless he has an MVP type season in 2025 he's not getting offers like that IMO. Once he and the Jays get a gauge on what his market value is around the league they can always re-engage. They are just too far apart right now and I tend to believe the Jays valuation is much closer to reality.

Well I think the risk is you could be losing somebody like Aaron Judge in his prime.

Vlad at 26 is more proven than Aaron Judge was at 26.

[Jiri Hrdina]

According to Davis Ortiz Vlad wanted 13 years for 585

[browna]

For him to stay:
The Jays have to miss the playoffs.
Atkins and Shapiro (and Schneider) will be have to be gone before free agency hits.

The only way he signs with Toronto.

I don't think he trusts these guys in charge in Atkins and Shapiro or has for years. Rogers has the money to pay him if they choose.

If he has another pretty good year like last, he may have suitors willing to put out the big money like he wants now. Even an average year my guess is he gets close to $450M.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Forgive us for believing Jays management is incompetent vs playing 4D chess

I guess we have just been watching the last 7 years!

Haha 4D chess?

It's not 4D chess to decide not to capitulate and give a player who so far in his career has put up seasons of 0.3, 0.3, 6.3, 3.3, 1.3 and 5.5 fWAR somewhere in the neighborhood of $500-$600 million dollars.

That's actually good sense.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by CroCop

They will get sweet F all for either of these guys now. Especially with the clowns they have running this crap.

I disagree. We can’t forget the value they got for Kikuchi. There will be a lot of teams looking to get Vlad and lock him up in advance.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

According to Davis Ortiz Vlad wanted 13 years for 585

This kind of aligns to the rumour I heard that it his ask had increased to around "12 x $600M". So that's the ballpark it think.

The interesting part of that 13 x $585M number is that the AAV aligns to one of the previously rumoured offers the Jays had reportedly made which was 10 x $450M. Both are $45M per year.

So seems like the issue is total length / duration more than the average.

I don't know...if you're in a similar range on AAV but the length is the issue that feels like a closesble gap if both sides would have negotiated in good faith.

But if Vlad was at a hard stance on that number (and it kind of sounds like he was) then I kind of get the Jays hesitation.

But at the same time he's likely going to have Opt out clause at like 3 and 6 years anyways, why worry about 2 extra years at the end.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Haha 4D chess?

It's not 4D chess to decide not to capitulate and give a player who so far in his career has put up seasons of 0.3, 0.3, 6.3, 3.3, 1.3 and 5.5 fWAR somewhere in the neighborhood of $500-$600 million dollars.

That's actually good sense.

There’s nothing wrong with not wanting to pay.

The issue is walking him to UFA. If you don’t think he a superstar quality player (same with Bo) why have you kept them as your building blocks ? Pull the plug 2 years ago and get maximum value and restart

And I fully disagree it’s good sense to let your homegrown stars walk while continuing to sign aging FAs many levels of skill below them . There’s been a handful of stars reach UFA this early in their career . Soto decided from D1 he was going UFA despite SD and Washington to everything to lock him up.

Bryce Harper was the real only other recent example of a prime career superstar reaching UFA.

It just doesn’t happen because teams lock up their young star younger to buy some UFA years for the risk the player doesnt turn out . It’s a win /win

Now maybe Vladdy wouldn’t sign before as he has family money and doesn’t need to safety net - but all indications are for several years they have talked contract . Doesn’t sound like someone who didn’t want to sign


Question - do you think the Jays have a good team / team capable of contending this year ? Because if the answer isn’t yes then why are Vlad and Bo still on this team ?

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

According to Davis Ortiz Vlad wanted 13 years for 585

To sign in Toronto now.


Ortiz should know?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Andrew

To sign in Toronto now.


Ortiz should know?

Ortiz is Vlad's godfather...so yeah he would probably know.

This is an interesting take - because it seems to be the Jays position:

You just aren't consistent enough to get Soto money

https://x.com/buster_espn/status/189...253378540?s=46

And it probably depends on this season. If he has a .950 + OPS this season and you could say "he did it 3 of 5 years" then he might.

But if his season is similar to 2022 or 2023 then the market isn't going to value him nearly as high.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I disagree. We can’t forget the value they got for Kikuchi. There will be a lot of teams looking to get Vlad and lock him up in advance.

I think we over state the value they got for Kikuchi. They got a future back end of the rotation starter, who was rushed through the minors, 25 year old OF who has struggled at the MLB level and a 26 year old utility player who hadn't played in the big leagues. None of these guys are star players, these are replacement level players. Also most people will say that that the Astros overpaid for Kikuchi.

There isn't going to be any future star players in the return for Bo or Vladdy.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Haha 4D chess?

It's not 4D chess to decide not to capitulate and give a player who so far in his career has put up seasons of 0.3, 0.3, 6.3, 3.3, 1.3 and 5.5 fWAR somewhere in the neighborhood of $500-$600 million dollars.

That's actually good sense.

Going back to 2000, Vlad is tied for 20th in wRC+ through their age 25 season, tied with Miguel Cabrera and ahead of guys like Mookie Betts, Andrew McCutchen, Freddie Freeman.

You have to factor in his age when you compare him to other players. Sure guys like Judge have proven more when they got their big deals, they were also older than Vladdy.