2025 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Roof-Daddy]

The Jays "young stars" haven't really done anything to prove they are good enough to be locked up to long term to monster contracts.

[Roof-Daddy]

Again, the problem is Vladdy has an over inflated self worth.

From 2021 to 2024 Vlad put up 16.4 fWAR which ranks him 25th in all of MLB.

Over the same time period Devers ranks 24th with 16.8 fWAR. He signed a 10 year $313.5 million deal last year. If Vlad would sign a deal like that he'd probably already be signed, but he thinks he's "the best in the world".

Over that same time period Bichette ranks 38th with 13.9 fWAR. These guys are good players, but they are not superstars you give mega deals to and then try to build around them.

Willy Adames (from 2021-2024, 29th with 156 fWAR) just signed 7 years $182 million as a UFA and he's actually a good SS.


And now people will say "well, they should have traded them!"

Sounds like a great plan if teams are willing to give up anything good, but MLB teams all have access to all the data that shows these players are good but not great and will also know they want to be paid like they are great not good. How much are they going to be willing to give up trading for them if they know that as well?

####ty spot to be in if you're the Jays. No wonder they pulled out all the stops the last two off seasons trying to lure actual superstars like Ohtani and Soto.

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Again, the problem is Vladdy has an over inflated self worth.

From 2021 to 2024 Vlad put up 16.4 fWAR which ranks him 25th in all of MLB.

Over the same time period Devers ranks 24th with 16.8 fWAR. He signed a 10 year $313.5 million deal last year. If Vlad would sign a deal like that he'd probably already be signed, but he thinks he's "the best in the world".

Over that same time period Bichette ranks 38th with 13.9 fWAR. These guys are good players, but they are not superstars you give mega deals to and then try to build around them.

Willy Adames (from 2021-2024, 29th with 156 fWAR) just signed 7 years $182 million as a UFA and he's actually a good SS.


And now people will say "well, they should have traded them!"

Sounds like a great plan if teams are willing to give up anything good, but MLB teams all have access to all the data that shows these players are good but not great and will also know they want to be paid like they are great not good. How much are they going to be willing to give up trading for them if they know that as well?

####ty spot to be in if you're the Jays. No wonder they pulled out all the stops the last two off seasons trying to lure actual superstars like Ohtani and Soto.

Fair analysis.
Young guys can be inconsistent. Not everybody myself included is mature in certain ways at a young age. This can lead to consistency and not knowing yourself and how to perform.

Stars players don't want to come to toronto.

Vlad has superstsr potential. He sells tickets.
He might not be worth what he is asking but who is coming to Toronto? He has potential. Sometimes it takes belief and trust to drive a player to new heights

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by browna

This is the problem. They (Atkins and Shapiro particularly, the Jays in general) aren't going to convince too players to come.here even with an overpay. Especially now since all MLB players see how they are dealing with Vlad.

The Jays missed the window to sign him for cheaper, hell even Judge probably has a tinge of regret because he would get more than Soto if timing was a year later.

I've said it twice but I don't think Atkins and Shapiro are enamoured or ever have been enamoured with Vlad, really ever. Feeling is probably mutual. Rogers as an owner has given complete autonomy to Shapiro and Atkins and that's biting then in this case.

Vlad isn't the answer, but he's a big part of the solution, and the Jays can't be picky with top/impact players who wish to be a Blue Jay. But here we are.

That all said, I can see this salvageable. Atkins and Shapiro or at least Atkins, has to be gone this season. If that happens my guess is Vladdy signs. I think Vlad was thinking that these guys would be gone and he could deal with someone he trusts, which isnt this regime.

Only way that happens fairly quick is if the pressure from fans and media around this and the team, and maybe some crappy early season results. Even if it's a mid season punting I can see Vlad coming around if the front office (and Schneider) are overhauled.

Question is, that move and change of course has to come from higher that Shapiro. These guys, certainly Atkins, has lasted probably a full calender longer than expected, so they seem to have the trust of Rogers as owners. Is that eroded with this past offseason? And is there anyone above Shapiro that can properly figure a way to transition to a new routine without being overruled by Shapiro?

The only path forward is if Vlad struggles out of the gate and is willing to walk back some of his demands sensing a down year and his value plummeting. That's a big IF in my mind, and would take a very poor start by Vlad.The most likely scenario is he starts off reasonably well and locks in for his big pay day as the season progresses. The chasm between the organization and player likely isn't going to shrink from this point.

It's sad as a fan because there is no real path forward from here now. Bo will be gone shortly as well and what the team is left with now is a pretty mediocre to poor prospect base and likely several seasons of pain. Having not done more with the Vladdy / Bichette era is pretty bad, despite them not necessarily being the best of the best. In my opinion, there's no reason to continue moving on with Shapiro or Atkins, and having them around further is only causing more harm to the future.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Again, the problem is Vladdy has an over inflated self worth.

From 2021 to 2024 Vlad put up 16.4 fWAR which ranks him 25th in all of MLB.

Over the same time period Devers ranks 24th with 16.8 fWAR. He signed a 10 year $313.5 million deal last year. If Vlad would sign a deal like that he'd probably already be signed, but he thinks he's "the best in the world".

Over that same time period Bichette ranks 38th with 13.9 fWAR. These guys are good players, but they are not superstars you give mega deals to and then try to build around them.

Willy Adames (from 2021-2024, 29th with 156 fWAR) just signed 7 years $182 million as a UFA and he's actually a good SS.


And now people will say "well, they should have traded them!"

Sounds like a great plan if teams are willing to give up anything good, but MLB teams all have access to all the data that shows these players are good but not great and will also know they want to be paid like they are great not good. How much are they going to be willing to give up trading for them if they know that as well?

####ty spot to be in if you're the Jays. No wonder they pulled out all the stops the last two off seasons trying to lure actual superstars like Ohtani and Soto.

Devers is 3 years older than Vladdy and signed before teams started handing out big contracts to Soto, Ohtani and Bregman, the landscape has changed.

Adames is 4 years older than Vladdy and just came off a season where he was a -16 DRS. Most teams that were interested in him wanted him to switch off of SS. SF was one of the only teams that was willing to keep him at SS.

Again Vladdy is younger than most of the players you can compare him too, and is just hitting his prime, combine that with the fact that the market has changed, you can’t use the Devers deal as a comparison anymore.

He will get $500-$600m in free agency next year. Players at his level don’t hit free agency at his age, very often. Teams will be lining up to sign him.

This front office just let everyone know that they don’t care about winning past this year.

[CroCop]

The Jays effed this up so bad. They will and do deserve to lose fans for this.

[SuperMatt18]

Let's compare Soto and Vlad over the past 4 seasons since based on age, offensive output, and defensive shortcomings they are the two best comparisons:

Vlad:

2021: 6.7 rWAR, 48 HR, 1.002 OPS, .311 BA, 6.3 fwar
2022: 4.0 rWAR, 32 HR, .818 OPS, .274 BA, 3.3 fwar
2023: 2.0 rWAR, 26 HR, ,788 OPS, .264 BA, 1.3 fwar
2024: 6.2 rWAR, 30 HR, .940 OPS, .323 BA, 5.5 fwar

Soto:

2021: 7.1 rWAR, 29 HR, .999 OPS, .313 BA, 6.8 fwar
2022: 5.5 rWAR, 27 HR, .854 OPS, .242 BA, 3.7 fwar
2023: 5.5 rWAR, 35 HR, .930 OPS, .275 BA, 6.0 fwar
2024: 7.9 rWAR, 41 HR, .989 OPS, .288 BA, 8.1 fwar

So in the last 4 years Soto is more consistent and generally has more value overall.

Soto: 26 rWAR, 24.6 rWAR, 132 HRs, .279 AVG, .943 OPS, 19.9% BB%, 16.0% K%
Vlad: 18.9 rWAR, 16.4 rWAR, 136 HRs, .293 AVG, .887 OPS, 10.2% BB%, 15.2% K%

Problem being looking at the past is discounting Vlad for those two mediocre seasons, where Vlad does have that potential to be an MVP candidate. And at their absolute best seasons they are similar players:

If you look at each of their best two seasons of the past 4 (happens to be 2021 and 2024 for both of them):

Vlad:

2021: 6.7 rWAR, 48 HR, 1.002 OPS, .311 BA, 6.3 fwar
2024: 6.2 rWAR, 30 HR, .940 OPS, .323 BA, 5.5 fwar

Total: 12.9 rWAR, 78 HR, 0.971 OPS, .317 BA, 11.8 fWAR

2021: 7.1 rWAR, 29 HR, .999 OPS, .313 BA, 6.8 fwar
2024: 7.9 rWAR, 41 HR, .989 OPS, .288 BA, 8.1 fwar

Total: 15 rWAR. 70 HR, .994 OPS. .300 BA, 14.9 fWAR

That's really close, and outside of walks Vlad actually would have the better HR rate, similar strike out rate, and a better batting average. Soto walks a lot more though.

In the end it's where negotiation is tough because Vlad would 100% see himself as a direct comparable to Soto and want the same deal.

Where the Jays are thinking he's not in the same echelon of player.

In the end I still think part of the problem here is the Jays (and some of the fans) hyperfocusing on Vladdy's flaws, especially with the two poor seasons, because they just watch him every day.

Soto has similar flaws, but gets a bit more forgiveness for it, when at their top end their potential to be elite is quite similar. Soto has just shown it more consistently.

So if they Jays were willing to offer $700M for Soto, then realistically they should have been willing to offfer $600M for Vlad.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I struggle with this one. I’m not a big Vlad fan. And maybe that’s my bias. I just don’t think he’s serious about the game.
I long thought between the two, Bo would be the one that I commit to, but that obviously is not happening.
I’m not sure signing Vlad to a massive contract leads to any team level success. It’s easy for him to say he wants to be here – but at what price?
It feels like, more than ever, MLB is concentrating talent into a small number of major markets. It’s quite discouraging from a fan POV. From time to time a small team will squeak in and win something, but it’s hard not to ignore the distinct advantages that certain markets hold.

I don't watch baseball anymore but I watched almost every single Expos game and his dad is my favourite baseball player of all time.

Then you have his son who comes into MLB as this obese dude who can't play anywhere except for 1st base... Sure his dad doesn't speak english but it's 2025 and you still can't speak english? let him go.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Then you have his son who comes into MLB as this obese dude who can't play anywhere except for 1st base... Sure his dad doesn't speak english but it's 2025 and you still can't speak english? let him go.

He can and has done interviews in english. He doesn't do as many in english because he doesn't want to say something wrong in english and have it taken the wrong way.

There were also discussions of him going back to third base where he started if they ended up signing Alonso.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Let's compare Soto and Vlad over the past 4 seasons since based on age, offensive output, and defensive shortcomings they are the two best comparisons:

Vlad:

2021: 6.7 rWAR, 48 HR, 1.002 OPS, .311 BA, 6.3 fwar
2022: 4.0 rWAR, 32 HR, .818 OPS, .274 BA, 3.3 fwar
2023: 2.0 rWAR, 26 HR, ,788 OPS, .264 BA, 1.3 fwar
2024: 6.2 rWAR, 30 HR, .940 OPS, .323 BA, 5.5 fwar

Soto:

2021: 7.1 rWAR, 29 HR, .999 OPS, .313 BA, 6.8 fwar
2022: 5.5 rWAR, 27 HR, .854 OPS, .242 BA, 3.7 fwar
2023: 5.5 rWAR, 35 HR, .930 OPS, .275 BA, 6.0 fwar
2024: 7.9 rWAR, 41 HR, .989 OPS, .288 BA, 8.1 fwar

So in the last 4 years Soto is more consistent and generally has more value overall.

Soto: 26 rWAR, 24.6 rWAR, 132 HRs, .279 AVG, .943 OPS, 19.9% BB%, 16.0% K%
Vlad: 18.9 rWAR, 16.4 rWAR, 136 HRs, .293 AVG, .887 OPS, 10.2% BB%, 15.2% K%

Problem being looking at the past is discounting Vlad for those two mediocre seasons, where Vlad does have that potential to be an MVP candidate. And at their absolute best seasons they are similar players:

If you look at each of their best two seasons of the past 4 (happens to be 2021 and 2024 for both of them):

Vlad:

2021: 6.7 rWAR, 48 HR, 1.002 OPS, .311 BA, 6.3 fwar
2024: 6.2 rWAR, 30 HR, .940 OPS, .323 BA, 5.5 fwar

Total: 12.9 rWAR, 78 HR, 0.971 OPS, .317 BA, 11.8 fWAR

2021: 7.1 rWAR, 29 HR, .999 OPS, .313 BA, 6.8 fwar
2024: 7.9 rWAR, 41 HR, .989 OPS, .288 BA, 8.1 fwar

Total: 15 rWAR. 70 HR, .994 OPS. .300 BA, 14.9 fWAR

That's really close, and outside of walks Vlad actually would have the better HR rate, similar strike out rate, and a better batting average. Soto walks a lot more though.

In the end it's where negotiation is tough because Vlad would 100% see himself as a direct comparable to Soto and want the same deal.

Where the Jays are thinking he's not in the same echelon of player.

In the end I still think part of the problem here is the Jays (and some of the fans) hyperfocusing on Vladdy's flaws, especially with the two poor seasons, because they just watch him every day.

Soto has similar flaws, but gets a bit more forgiveness for it, when at their top end their potential to be elite is quite similar. Soto has just shown it more consistently.

So if they Jays were willing to offer $700M for Soto, then realistically they should have been willing to offfer $600M for Vlad.

There's a high chance he's the best FA out there next year and the big teams come out to pay him. Arguably Soto should not have been paid that crazy money last year, though I suspect there's a thought that elite players are so much better than star players and they should be paid as such, hence the crazy overpay. We'll have endless debate if Vlad is in that stratosphere, but I'd put my money on him getting minimum $550M, whether or not Cohen is involved. The market has changed since Ohtani.


Personally I don't think anyone is worth these prices, and I'm glad they lost out on both Ohtani and Soto. Those contracts are going to sink those teams later on. Vlad, despite playing a lot, is not going to age fit.

[browna]

Vlad in a vacuum it can be debated on how he and the contract are going to age..as can Soto, Ohtahni, even Trout 10+ years ago and Arod when he signed the $250M deal back when.

But the Jays don't work in a vacuum given their permanent market disadvantages. The money that they don't spend on Vlad or Bo isn't going to be instantly and easily used on someone else or a group of players that are potentially better, because those players simply don't have Toronto as their first or second choice.

The players that Shapiro and Atkins really do want instead of Vlad, and can pay and can overpay still may not want to come to Toronto. Saw that with SO and JS, but also Burnes, Bregman, Sasaski, probably JD Martinez.

They have a pair of very good players in Bo and Vlad that have come up through the system the right way and are good players. Most importantly they want to be part of the franchise, and choose this franchise, which many many players do not.

It was proven this offseason that no price can be put on that reluctance to move to Canada, when close to $1B CDN couldn't convince Soto to come to Canada.

Do Vlad and Bo want to get paid? Sure. And Shapiro could've paid them last year and saved a couple hundred million dollars vs today. But the disconnect between whatever mind warp Shapiro has his name drop in Moneyball as to what he values Vlad at, is not factoring in nearly enough the actual replacement cost premium for that same type of player to happily come to Toronto over somewhere in the US.

[Finger Cookin]

The Steve Phillips article on TSN pretty neatly summed up where I think the Jays went wrong over this whole contract.


"If the Jays had made Guerrero a priority, they would not have been stuck riding the coattails of Soto’s $765 million deal with the Mets. Everything changed once Soto signed. A deal that could be made with Guerrero in November was no longer available in February. That’s where Toronto’s front office went wrong and that is why Guerrero is now empowered to test the market

The Jays have been chasing the Guerrero deal for a couple of years. Every time they engaged with Guerrero’s agent, the asking price has been too high. But each subsequent time they engaged the price that was asked for in the previous negotiation didn’t sound so bad."

[Jason14h]

The last paragraph sums it up . It’s like house shopping in a Canada and every year coming in under asking and not getting the house , and then the next year having to offer more but coming in under asking again .

You end up not having a house and looking back that you should have bought 3 years ago , and eventually buying / overpaying for something you didn’t even really want when all the remaining available homes in your area are off the market

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The last paragraph sums it up . It’s like house shopping in a Canada and every year coming in under asking and not getting the house , and then the next year having to offer more but coming in under asking again .

You end up not having a house and looking back that you should have bought 3 years ago , and eventually buying / overpaying for something you didn’t even really want when all the remaining available homes in your area are off the market

Yeah. That's how you end up with a series of expensive rentals, both in housing and baseball.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

The Steve Phillips article on TSN pretty neatly summed up where I think the Jays went wrong over this whole contract.


"If the Jays had made Guerrero a priority, they would not have been stuck riding the coattails of Soto’s $765 million deal with the Mets. Everything changed once Soto signed. A deal that could be made with Guerrero in November was no longer available in February. That’s where Toronto’s front office went wrong and that is why Guerrero is now empowered to test the market

The Jays have been chasing the Guerrero deal for a couple of years. Every time they engaged with Guerrero’s agent, the asking price has been too high. But each subsequent time they engaged the price that was asked for in the previous negotiation didn’t sound so bad."

Yup. This franchise is back into the dark ages again of the early 2000s. Barely watchable and no talent in the pipeline.

Shatkins are, by far, the worst execs this team has seen in decades.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

The Steve Phillips article on TSN pretty neatly summed up where I think the Jays went wrong over this whole contract.


"If the Jays had made Guerrero a priority, they would not have been stuck riding the coattails of Soto’s $765 million deal with the Mets. Everything changed once Soto signed. A deal that could be made with Guerrero in November was no longer available in February. That’s where Toronto’s front office went wrong and that is why Guerrero is now empowered to test the market

The Jays have been chasing the Guerrero deal for a couple of years. Every time they engaged with Guerrero’s agent, the asking price has been too high. But each subsequent time they engaged the price that was asked for in the previous negotiation didn’t sound so bad."

Phillips is totally right. However, he’s thinking they’re not talking. I would bet Vlad knew what values they were going for and was waiting for it. Nobody could’ve known what ultimately he signed for (far exceeding expectations) but I don’t believe for a second with them being friends, he knew what values he was pushing for. The mistake was not trying to sign him when he was heating up last season.

[Jason14h]

The mistake was not locking them both up years ago like Acuna and Witt Jr

There’s a reason other than Soto who decided from a young age he was hitting UFA prime UFAs don’t get to the market . They get locked up well before reaching this point

[cross16]

I can get behind the argument that Vlad isn't worth Soto or close it and therefore the Jays were right to pass. I don't personally agree but I can understand the discussion.

What makes this just pure incompetence is that they allowed it to get to this spot. Vlad should have been locked up a while ago, or if they didn't believe in him they should have moved him. This is management incompetence at it's finest because it is absolutely horrible asset management.

They tried to have their cake and eat it too and now they are going to pay for it, when really they just needed to pick a direction.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Yup. This franchise is back into the dark ages again of the early 2000s. Barely watchable and no talent in the pipeline.

Shatkins are, by far, the worst execs this team has seen in decades.

But without he small budget that justified the poor on field results.

[bluejays]

Things will be alright. As long as they maximize the returns for Bo and Vlad.