11-05-2024, 07:13 PM
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#121
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Participant  |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger
Because people like making sweeping generalizations based on limited information. That’s the MO for about half the posts in this thread. Trump landslide!
I’m not sure if it’s because people love being dramatic or because it’s a coping mechanism.
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Brain rot. Same thing that happens with people discussing sports where they start to adapt this weird sport analyst language and delivery like they’re on TV.
Seeing the same thing with people aping political analysts and data nerds on social media. A ton of the more “exciting” but dumber sounding ones use this amped up, gamified language. So of course people whose entire consumption is based on those things end up only being able to speak about it in that language. No original thought.
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11-05-2024, 07:13 PM
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#122
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaErtz
There's a correlation between the votes in one state and the votes in another. Everyone expects Harris to carry New York and California, for example. If the early results were to show Harris winning narrowly in New York, it wouldn't bode well for her chances to win in Nevada, which is expected to be very close.
That's exactly what's going on tonight. Trump is WAY overperforming expectations in Georgia, which is why it is likely he does better than expected in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
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Can you point to which counties you see an over performance in Georgia? I’ve been watching the ones around Atlanta and comparing them against the 538 tied projections and in that sense you’d expect 1-2% ahead of those projections. Right now it’s somewhere +\-1 of tied.
But also even poly market still gives 30% odds to Harris. Why do you treat it like 2% chance
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11-05-2024, 07:13 PM
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#123
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaErtz
Look at the votes by county, not by total. Harris is running way behind Biden's 2020 numbers, and he BARELY won Georgia.
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He literally said he's looking at counties in his post. Take a hike with this blathering garbage.
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11-05-2024, 07:14 PM
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#124
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Franchise Player
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Well it's still early but PA looks good for Harris. She has a mega lead there.
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11-05-2024, 07:17 PM
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#125
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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PA looks like it's gonna be decided by less than 1% either way.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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11-05-2024, 07:17 PM
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#126
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by activeStick
Well it's still early but PA looks good for Harris. She has a mega lead there.
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NYT has it creeping Trump based past results. Their model is going heavy Trump because of it
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11-05-2024, 07:18 PM
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#127
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Pickle Jar Lake
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Kamala ahead 59-40 in Pennsylvania, lets just call it now.
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11-05-2024, 07:19 PM
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#128
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Franchise Player
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If you're going to ban MegaErtz, please wait until they bet on a Forge win Saturday....
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11-05-2024, 07:20 PM
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#129
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Cap Hell
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fuzz
kamala ahead 59-40 in pennsylvania, lets just call it now.
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stop the count!!!
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Justin 3
All I saw was Godzilla.  |
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11-05-2024, 07:20 PM
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#130
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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The NYT needle just keeps getting redder
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11-05-2024, 07:20 PM
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#131
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#1 Goaltender
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Is it a noteworthy point that aside from Sanders, 2 other senate races are trending independent? (Very early in one, so that could change.)
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11-05-2024, 07:20 PM
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#132
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shermanator
If you're going to ban MegaErtz, please wait until they bet on a Forge win Saturday....
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No lines yet, not sure why. Been waiting all week to get down. The game against Ottawa was the easiest money I've ever made.
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11-05-2024, 07:20 PM
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#133
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonded
NYT has it creeping Trump based past results. Their model is going heavy Trump because of it
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You mean the failing New York Times?
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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11-05-2024, 07:21 PM
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#134
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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The Needle is very bullish on Trump for sure, projected to win every battleground right now.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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11-05-2024, 07:22 PM
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#135
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce
The NYT needle just keeps getting redder
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It’s because they are increasingly giving Trump PA
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The Following User Says Thank You to Bonded For This Useful Post:
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11-05-2024, 07:23 PM
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#136
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonded
NYT has it creeping Trump based past results. Their model is going heavy Trump because of it
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There projecting a .6% margin for the popular vote which is a .5% poll bias toward Trump which is enough to lose Penn and then that’s it.
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11-05-2024, 07:24 PM
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#137
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Calgary
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Trump Georgia lead dropping fast. Now at 52.8
__________________
"Everybody's so desperate to look smart that nobody is having fun anymore" -Jackie Redmond
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11-05-2024, 07:24 PM
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#138
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Franchise Player
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NYT is literally begging for money to stay afloat.
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11-05-2024, 07:24 PM
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#139
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
The Needle is very bullish on Trump for sure, projected to win every battleground right now.
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Talking on ABC now that Trump outperforming by a tiny margin in almost every county. This was specific to one of the swings - not sure which - but no good regardless.
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11-05-2024, 07:24 PM
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#140
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First Line Centre
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The Hill is calling Virginia for Harris
__________________
MMF is the tough as nails cop that "plays by his own rules". The force keeps suspending him when he crosses the line but he keeps coming back and then cracks a big case.
-JiriHrdina
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