Just will chime in here. Growing up in California i have many American friends. Most of my male friends, who are a mix of whites and hispanics, are voting Trump. These are not people on the far right but people who say they were doing better financially under Trump then they are under Biden. They do not see any correlation that Trumps policies directly contributed to inflation. I expect Trump to win, I think he pulls out Pennsylvania. I was just there on a trip 3 months ago and the amount of Trump signs double the amount of Harris signs, not that it means much, but it took me by surprise. I think Trump probably gets to around 287 electoral votes. I would be happy to be wrong tho. Regardless I believe the gender gap in this election will be quite interesting to study for future elections.
The US is a strange place. If I was in a sea of Trumpers and was voting Harris I would likely keep that to myself.
Agreed. Why would I advertise I am voting for Harris in a sea of crazies who have access to guns? At best you are going to have hostile neighbours. This election could be a boon for the crime show Fear Thy Neighbour.
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Unfortunately, I think a lot of those angry women are leaning conservative. The anti-vax movement was strong amongst females and virtually that entire demographic is voting Trump. On top of that a large number of young women are now leaning religious, that demographic is voting Trump. People overall may be becoming more secular, but a larger segment of young people, who would otherwise have voted democratic, are becoming extremely religious.
As a mid 30s woman I would be surprised if Roe v. Wade being overturned didn't trump (pardon the pun) the religious folks.
Trump still has way too close a chance to win this thing but I would be shocked if it's on the backs of angry women.
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Nevada, Wisconsin go Democrat / Harris as well as Arizona which surprises.
Trump gets Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia
Blue collars workers feeling the pinch of cost of living think they would do better under Trump, and anti-Israel folks decide to teach Democrats a lesson due to Biden administration staunch defense of Israel causing Republicans to squeak out Michigan and Pennsylvania. North Carolina's recent hurricane impact makes it one of the tightest races, but ultimately Republicans still win out.
In an accuracy greater than required to call something like Pennsylvania or Nevada? Never.
The first signs we will get are Florida. Abortion is on the Docket there. If the women autonomy vote is driving a significant polling error then Florida being close would be the sign. Polling has it as Rep +7. So if you have a 4% polling error in the Dems favour they would win the state. So if Florida stays in toss-up rather than being called immediately that would be the first sign of good things for Harris.
Dems winning Florida is my crazy but might happen thought.
Last edited by GGG; 11-05-2024 at 12:12 PM.
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As a mid 30s woman I would be surprised if Roe v. Wade being overturned didn't trump (pardon the pun) the religious folks.
Trump still has way too close a chance to win this thing but I would be shocked if it's on the backs of angry women.
The problem with relying too much on the Roe v. Wade issue, is that it doesn't directly affect many older women, in the sense that they aren't getting pregnant. Older people these days are horrible at doing anything that doesn't directly benefit them. Young people don't vote all that much, and the neo-religious young crowd likely counter-acts any new democratic voters amongst young people.
Also, a lot of the people who are going to be pissed about Roe V. Wage are going to vote democrat already.
Let's also keep in mind that Roe v. Wade has already been overturned. It happened during a democrats presidency. The power of the federal government to restore rights offered under Roe V. Wade is somewhat limited. Particularly with Republicans in control of the Senate. The Republicans are expected to control more of the senate following this election.
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Just will chime in here. Growing up in California i have many American friends. Most of my male friends, who are a mix of whites and hispanics, are voting Trump. These are not people on the far right but people who say they were doing better financially under Trump then they are under Biden. They do not see any correlation that Trumps policies directly contributed to inflation. I expect Trump to win, I think he pulls out Pennsylvania. I was just there on a trip 3 months ago and the amount of Trump signs double the amount of Harris signs, not that it means much, but it took me by surprise. I think Trump probably gets to around 287 electoral votes. I would be happy to be wrong tho. Regardless I believe the gender gap in this election will be quite interesting to study for future elections.
It's interesting that your friends in ocean blue California are all Trump supporters. He gets his ass handed to him every time.
It's not just ROE vs WADE though. They have talked about going after IVF. One of them stalked about taking women's right to vote.
The political landscape is off the wall right now, with people on all sides making crazy statements. People are at the point now where they are tuning this stuff out and focusing on their rent and grocery bills.
Trump also supports IVF, the issue is who is paying for it. Both candidates have been murky about who they think should pay for IVF. Trump, whether you believe him or not, has actually stated that he would expand IVF funding as part of his goal of getting Americans to have more kids and hinder immigration. He's even, although inconsistently, stated that he might push for IVF to be covered by the government.
A major issue with Trump is that can be difficult to get a straight answer from him. He's constantly dog whistling and saying non-sensical things to bring in votes. There's certainly enough room for interpretation in his stance that someone could interpret his stance as pushing for massive expansion of access to IVF. I honestly don't think he's put that much thought into it, nor does he realize the consequences when he blurts out that the government or insurance will pay for IVF.
There are people that don't act in their own self interest?
Hint: You're not one of them.
It's at an extreme right now. Look at the housing market. I've never heard of anything like this. Empty nesters propping up their house values and expanding their portfolios, while knowingly shutting out younger generations from the market. And no it's not in their best interest. If young people can't afford to have kids, then there's no one left to provide the labour necessary to provide aging boomers with health care.
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The problem with relying too much on the Roe v. Wade issue, is that it doesn't directly affect many older women, in the sense that they aren't getting pregnant. Older people these days are horrible at doing anything that doesn't directly benefit them. Young people don't vote all that much, and the neo-religious young crowd likely counter-acts any new democratic voters amongst young people.
Also, a lot of the people who are going to be pissed about Roe V. Wage are going to vote democrat already.
Let's also keep in mind that Roe v. Wade has already been overturned. It happened during a democrats presidency. The power of the federal government to restore rights offered under Roe V. Wade is somewhat limited. Particularly with Republicans in control of the Senate. The Republicans are expected to control more of the senate following this election.
Abortion is definitely a wedge issue for some demographics. It's not exclusively a left-right issue. There are demographics that generally support leftist politics, but have strong opinions against liberal abortion laws. Catholics for one, used to vote more for Democrats (now about 50-50) because they support things like health care, welfare, and immigration, but the abortion issue becomes a sticking point for a lot of them. Considering the growing Latino demographic and that most tend to Catholics, it might not be something that the Democrats want as a big ticket item.
Most people who are pro-choice and want more access to abortions would vote against Trump anyway. The Democrats would probably be better off not dwelling on the issue too much.
I suppose they have people smarter than me who have a way to predict or calculate how many voters they likely get and how many they lose when they put the issue on the forefront, and they determined that it should be a net positive? At any rate, I think there is a still a tradeoff with the issue and it isn't simply a win-win issue for them.
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