Will Flames make the playoffs?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I don't see those results as being enough. Maybe some teams above them collapse? I think that is what they are going to need. There are teams behind them (Colorado, Nashville, and St. Louis) that have potential to outplay them and pass them, especially with the play of late. As the games intensify I'm not sure I see anything else on the squad to step up. They could really use some youth and speed in the lineup, but we know Sutter is 1000% against such a radical move. Not until we're 10 up or 10 down.

Well they're .609 in that stretch.

If they go .609 the rest of the way they end up with 96 points. The current hurdle is 93.

Given the order of things ... .530 in their first 24 games and .609 in their last 21 they're trending in the right direction.

Add in the schedule strength and I think they'll be all right.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I'm not sure I agree that it's going to be 95 this year - you're going to see Phoenix, Chicago, Vancouver, San Jose, and Anaheim lean into the tank for Bedard harder than ever before.

Dallas - 108 point pace
Winnipeg - 108 point pace
Vegas - 106 point pace
Seattle - 104 point pace
Minnesota - 103 point pace
LA - 100 point pace
Edmonton- 95 point pace
Calgary - 93 point pace
Colorado - 92 point pace

Seattle, Calgary, Edmonton, and LA all have similarly soft schedules...Colorado is tougher but still not a tough schedule.

I could easily see 98 points being what is needed this year.

That would be the highest point total required in the history of the league

Three eastern conference teams have missed the playoffs with 96 points

2nd half has more conference and divisional games...every team won't keep up their pace or improve. Maybe the Flames are the team that doesn't, but if they do get there (I will give you 96 for snake) they are in like 99% of the time when you play this out.

you need to be one point better than the 9th place team to make it

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

That would be the highest point total required in the history of the league

Three eastern conference teams have missed the playoffs with 96 points

2nd half has more conference and divisional games...every team won't keep up their pace or improve. Maybe the Flames are the team that doesn't, but if they do get there (I will give you 96 for snake) they are in like 99% of the time when you play this out.

96 points have missed the playoffs 3-4 times in the last 8 years.

I don't think it's crazy to think that 97 or 98 points might be required this year - especially since the West doesn't really have a dominant team this year, and the West has the potential for some historically bad teams in the cap era.

Anaheim, Chicago, and Arizona all have points percentage below .375. That would put all three as one of the worst 20 seasons since the 05 lockout. San Jose isn't much better either.

All play in one conference, all are going to start tanking even hard for Bedard. I would have to take a harder look but I doubt there are many years where one conference has 4 teams with a point percentage below .400 - so it's a bit unprecedented.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

96 points have missed the playoffs 3-4 times in the last 8 years.

I don't think it's crazy to think that 97 or 98 points might be required this year - especially since the West doesn't really have a dominant team this year, and the West has the potential for some historically bad teams in the cap era.

Anaheim, Chicago, and Arizona all have points percentage below .375. That would put all three as one of the worst 20 seasons since the 05 lockout.

All play in one conference, all are going to start tanking even hard for Bedard.

So you think its a record year for the western conference...I disagree, doesn't look that way right now at all
I highly doubt the 9th place team has 96 or 97 points

Like I said maybe the Flames are the 9th place team with low 90s points, point is if they reach those totals they will make it...Don't freak out about the OOT

[Freddy]

I’ll be that guy.

The Flames are going get an injury bug with 20 games left in the season and will be forced to integrate prospects from the Wranglers which will result in more speed, looser systems execution, more goals for & against, and enough points to make the playoffs.

With Vladar getting the bulk of the starts and veterans returning from injury mixed with rookies playing above expectations the Flames will narrowly win every playoff series all the way through.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

So you think its a record year for the western conference...I disagree, doesn't look that way right now at all
I highly doubt the 9th place team has 96 or 97 points

Like I said maybe the Flames are the 9th place team with low 90s points, point is if they reach those totals they will make it...Don't freak out about the OOT

I do think it's a bit of historical year when it comes to bad teams...quick glance but I don't think there has ever been a season in the salary cap era where 4 teams in one conference have a points percentage below .400.

Dom L from The Athletic has a projection based on remaining schedule, strength of schedule etc. This has LA missing the playoffs with a projected 97.6 points.



The softness at the bottom of the Western conference when it comes to Anaheim, Chicago, Arizona, and San Jose. And it's also a bit weird that nobody has really separated from the pack in the West either.

It's possible one of the top 9 struggles against these bottom feeders, but I think we are about to see an unprecedented tank take place as teams try to win the Bedard / Fantilli / Michkov sweepstakes and you see a lot of congestion in the top 9 of the conference.

[dino7c]

hey we can bump this
I will bet money a 97 point team doesn't miss the playoffs though Dom or no Dom

Chicago has beat Calgary, Colorado, and Buffalo in the last 10 days...teams don't just win or lose every game you expect them to

these 9 teams aren't all playing over .600 hockey the rest of the year IMO

I'm not even saying the Flames will make it...just teams with that many points will

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

hey we can bump this
I will bet money a 97 point team doesn't miss the playoffs though Dom or no Dom

Chicago has beat Calgary, Colorado, and Buffalo in the last 10 days...teams don't just win or lose every game you expect them to

these 9 teams aren't all playing over .600 hockey the rest of the year IMO

I'm not even saying the Flames will make it...just teams with that many points will

But you said 95 gets you in too. This projection shows 95 might not get you in.

Flames needs .594 point percent to get 95. Not terrible but it's no lock. .622% to get 97. That's well above their current point %

[Macho0978]

If Makar is out for an extended period, the Flames odds will go up.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But you said 95 gets you in too. This projection shows 95 might not get you in.

Flames needs .594 point percent to get 95. Not terrible but it's no lock. .622% to get 97. That's well above their current point %

Great, when did I say I agree with this projection? It makes a lot of assumptions of teams either continuing their hot play or totally doing a 180 based on their recent play. Yeah .622 is above the Flames current pace...they are in a playoff spot currently though. I remember last season when people were laughed off the board for saying Vegas might miss the playoffs.

For the sake of snake and historical numbers I am saying 96 will get you in

Flames had a poor back half of October and November...if they do that again they are not getting in. The also had the hardest schedule in the league.

Every betting site has the Flames about 70%+ to make the playoffs...if you guys want to call me a homer for agreeing with those odds so be it.

[Groot]

The Flames have 37 games remaining.

17 of those games are against bottom 10 teams. .700 hockey against those teams should be more than achievable. That would put that Flames at 75 points.

From the other 20 games against better teams, they would need to get 21 points to hit 96 points or a .525 pace.

TL/DR - .700 hockey in the remaining games against the basement of the NHL plus .525 hockey in the other games puts the Flames at 96 points. Both numbers should be easily achieved. Flames make playoffs.

[JohnnyB]

From 22nd of February to 28th of March is 18 games in 35 days, with a lot of tough opponents in there. Survive that with a good points percentage and they likely make it and look like a playoffs team. That's a tough stretch.

[sonq]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

From 22rd of February to 28th of March is 18 games in 35 days, with a lot of tough opponents in there. Survive that with a good points percentage and they likely make it and look like a playoffs team. That's a tough stretch.

Which one is it

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by sonq

Which one is it

Fixed that. The game on the 22nd isn't a tough one, but it leads into a game against Vegas in the second of a back-to-back.

It's a lot of games without much rest.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Great, when did I say I agree with this projection? It makes a lot of assumptions of teams either continuing their hot play or totally doing a 180 based on their recent play. Yeah .622 is above the Flames current pace...they are in a playoff spot currently though. I remember last season when people were laughed off the board for saying Vegas might miss the playoffs.

For the sake of snake and historical numbers I am saying 96 will get you in

Flames had a poor back half of October and November...if they do that again they are not getting in. The also had the hardest schedule in the league.

Every betting site has the Flames about 70%+ to make the playoffs...if you guys want to call me a homer for agreeing with those odds so be it.

You said in post #115 that 95 gets you in. The projection shows it might be 98. I don't think it will be 98 but find it interesting that is what is being projected. I did say 95 might not get you in and you called me on it. Now you are saying 96 gets you in. So, I guess when I said 95 might not you now agree?

Oddsmakers say the Flames have 70% chance of making it. I don't agree with that. The thread is based on opinion, I think the Flames will just miss unless something big happens on the injury front or trade deadline.

[dino7c]

95 very likely
96 almost certainly

Is there a 5% or less chance it doesn't...yeah but that doesn't keep me up at night

Oddsmaker numbers are not opinion, it's kinda funny how close they resemble this thread

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

95 very likely
96 almost certainly

Is there a 5% or less chance it doesn't...yeah but that doesn't keep me up at night

Oddsmaker numbers are not opinion, it's kinda funny how close they resemble this thread

But you are saying 95 might not get you in. I picked 95 as the # for a reason. Most years it gets you in, but things look like they may be different this year. 96 to 98 is possible when a guy like Bedard is available and no team in the west is running away with it.

The Stars and the Jets are on pace for 107 points and are in 1st. It's not often 107 gets you 1st in the conference either.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But you are saying 95 might not get you in. I picked 95 as the # for a reason. Most years it gets you in, but things look like they may be different this year. 96 to 98 is possible when a guy like Bedard is available and no team in the west is running away with it.

The Stars and the Jets are on pace for 107 points and are in 1st. It's not often 107 gets you 1st in the conference either.

Well Mary gave Lloyd Christmas a chance but it wasn't a very good one

I'm not saying its impossible but when you look at it are 9 teams really going to play at that high a level for the rest of the season? Nobody of 9 teams is going to have catastrophic injuries? And if they do are they not beating each other?

If Calgary has 95-97 points that means they beat a lot of these teams down the stretch.

Chicago is the worst team in the league but they already beat Calgary, Seattle, and Colorado...just off the top of my head. Everyone assumes free wins against the bottom teams but it doesn't actually play out like that...players don't tank they are have careers and contracts to think about. Nashville had a 4 goal 3rd period lead against Arizona on the final game of the season last year to avoid the Avs and they lost in regulation.

Also, even if I am agreeing with the oddsmakers and saying the Flames have a 75% chance or whatever that is still a 25% chance they won't make it

[TheChief]

My gut says no. Too many lost points already.

[Finger Cookin]

What's the go to site for standings projections these days? Since it seems like the site that shall not be named but rhymes with mortsmlubmats is no longer updating...