[GDT] WCSF: GAME 4 - FLAMES AT OILERS - 7:30pm TV: SN/CBC/TVA/ESPN - RADIO 960

[united]

Also one thing this series, and especially Game 3, has helped show is how much noise there is in small-sample expected goals metrics. Take Kane's three goals last game:

Goal 1: 5v5 2-on-1 pass, deke, backhand shot from edge of the crease to nearly empty net
0.10 expected goals (10% probability) per Natural Stat Trick.

Spoiler!

Goal 2: 5v5 partial 2-on-1 pass, backdoor tap-in to nearly empty net
0.12 expected goals

Spoiler!

Goal 3: 5v5 2-on-1 pass, partial breakaway deke
0.15 expected goals

Spoiler!

Didn't find good still of shot itself.

Subjective, but I don't think any of those probabilities are even close and in my opinion the third was easily the most stoppable.


These things, of course, mostly even out over a sufficient sample but there is a ton of noise in fewer than 10 periods of hockey in which a larger-than-normal portion has not been played at 5v5. Don't discount expected goals - in fact they should be used whenever possible - but proper context is always vital with these things.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by dino7c

no he doesn't, the Flames need to be the best team on the ice

Well since he and presumably a lot of fans want him to be signed to a contract this summer that would put him as the second highest paid player on the ice tonight, is it at least reasonable to expect him to be the *second* best player? Edmonton's stars are drumming us constantly and ours have done not much of anything for basically two games now.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by united

Vezina candidate Markstrom has been outplayed in 7 (arguably 8) of the 10 games so far. And that isn't to point to a finger or say he has played poorly as a whole - he hasn't, which is the point. It has been an insane run that will reverse at some point and what better night than tonight?

97/29 fire blanks in the first of three straight Flames wins.

Yep if Markstrom outplays Smith the rest of the way, I like our chances of winning 3 more games out of four. Because i doubt the ice will be as tilted again as it was in game 3.

[calf]

For the love of god, get pucks on net. It'll be nice to see shots not hit a defender and rebound out of the zone, setting up odd-man rushes or breakaways for the oppositon.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

This is a big game for Gaudreau.

He has to be the best player on the ice tonight.

McDavid is playing out of his mind. No one will be better than him.

The key to the game is to limit his points, and stifle everyone else. Flames need to play a complete team game, and they will win.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by united

Vezina candidate Markstrom has been outplayed in 7 (arguably 8) of the 10 games so far. And that isn't to point to a finger or say he has played poorly as a whole - he hasn't, which is the point. It has been an insane run that will reverse at some point and what better night than tonight?

97/29 fire blanks in the first of three straight Flames wins.

The Oilers are shooting at 11.7% and 10.33% at all strengths and 5 on 5 respectively which is by far the highest shooting percentage of any team in the playoffs. That later being almost 2% higher than the 2nd place Avs.

In the regular season they were shooing 10.21% all situations and 8.38% at 5 on 5 so to say it's unsustainable is an understatement. But when does their luck run out?

[icarus]

Get back to shooting the puck more. Not so many cutesy pass attempts through traffic that allow the Oilers transition game to take flight. If no shot or clear pass options try to take it deep and wait for support from behind the net.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by united

Vezina candidate Markstrom has been outplayed in 7 (arguably 8) of the 10 games so far. And that isn't to point to a finger or say he has played poorly as a whole - he hasn't, which is the point. It has been an insane run that will reverse at some point and what better night than tonight?

97/29 fire blanks in the first of three straight Flames wins.

I honestly can't point the finger too much at Markstrom. In the Dallas series, he was the 2nd best goalie, but there has to be a big asterisk there because he was really good as well.

Oilers series, game 1, he let in some softies but was still better than the other team's goalies. Game 2 was probably his worst game IMO. Game 3, he made some really good stops but the team in front of him was crap for large stretches of the game and he can't stop them all. I don't care how the advanced stats average out the game as a whole, because the parts that the Flames were bad, they were really bad. Markstrom faced like what, 20 shots in the first period alone? He has to be better for sure, but that is because the only way this team wins against the Oilers is if he bails them out many times.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by kevman

The Oilers are shooting at 11.7% and 10.33% at all strengths and 5 on 5 respectively which is by far the highest shooting percentage of any team in the playoffs. That later being almost 2% higher than the 2nd place Avs.

In the regular season they were shooing 10.21% all situations and 8.38% at 5 on 5 so to say it's unsustainable is an understatement. But when does their luck run out?

I wouldn’t call it luck. They’re scoring on grade A scoring chances, and creating lots of grade A scoring chances. Flames just need to start playing their game. That’s the only way the trend will slow.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Big deal. Of course we're going after his ankle. If Tanev was in, they would go after his shoulder. If Gaudreau had a broken hand they would go after that.

And if someone had sore nards you better believe #29 would have no issue going after that as well.

They don't have to have sore nards. Draisaitl will just go after them anyway.

[BoLevi]

Another game with massive implications for the organization from the GM down.

[joejoe3]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1529175398784851970

https://twitter.com/user/status/1529179173368889346

[GIODUDE]

I hate that we are at this point but I want to see Marky on a short lease the rest of this series. For whatever reason he struggles against these guys. I know our D has not bee up to snuff but they just seem to have is number.

[Always Earned Never Given]

May 25th is a very special day for Flames fans ( 33 year ago) so if they win in regulation, people out east will most likely celebrate the victory on the 25th.

Now if we all want to celebrate the win on the 25th, game needs to go into double overtime!


Goals from
McDonald
Patterson
Gilmour X 2

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Always Earned Never Given

May 25th is a very special day for Flames fans ( 33 year ago) so if they win in regulation, people out east will most likely celebrate the victory on the 25th.

Now if we all want to celebrate the win on the 25th, game needs to go into double overtime!


Goals from
McDonald
Patterson
Gilmour X 2

So....
Lewis
Jarnkrok
Lindholm x 2

[8sPOT]

I think the Flames have been roped into playing a more Oilers style game which is all high-risk type stuff. Markstrom too seems to be competing against Smith and playing the puck more which is not his forte.

Just gotta get back to the Flames hockey that got the team here in the first place. Feels like the first 5-10 mins of this game are huge.

[shogged]

go flames go! hoping for a big showing from markstrom and some much improved defensive play from the boys in the back!

[AustinL_NHL]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1529186634029101056

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

https://twitter.com/user/status/1529186634029101056

bahaha the oilers media always gets their way.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by calf

For the love of god, get pucks on net. It'll be nice to see shots not hit a defender and rebound out of the zone, setting up odd-man rushes or breakaways for the oppositon.

Originally Posted by icarus

Get back to shooting the puck more. Not so many cutesy pass attempts through traffic that allow the Oilers transition game to take flight. If no shot or clear pass options try to take it deep and wait for support from behind the net.

Yes, along with not layering the defence against McDavid and just playing him one on one, the other huge error was puck management. Sutter said their goals all came off plain old mistakes. Bad plays between the faceoff dots and the blue line. The biggest zone times have been when the fourth line management to get pucks in deep and forecheck hard.

The top line is good at cycling once they establish in deep. But they also tend to try things at the blue line that, if they fail, go the other way fast. same with almost all of Calgary's D.