[Signing] Lightning sign Point (3yrs, $6.75 mil AAV)

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Taxes are the only factor in your list that I think matter at this point. But it is admittedly a big one.

Weather and Tampa being a dominant team are obviously both factors in him taking the home town discount...not sure it can even be debated.

Tampa, SJ, ect. always get bargains

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Weather and Tampa being a dominant team are obviously both factors in him taking the home town discount...not sure it can even be debated.

Tampa, SJ, ect. always get bargains

I think it can easily be debated, since he only took 3 years and the fact that no other team can compete with Tampa on a negotiating level. Weather is just not a factor for RFA choices. Heck, I think it is only a very minor consideration for UFAs. Money is what talks.

As for “dominant team”, Calgary was second in the league, and both teams were bounced from the POs early. They are pretty similar in the respect.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Market value is what the market pays. An NHL team paid a centre with more points and goals than Tkachuk $6.75. I don't see why a match is “the best we can hope for”.

So you are using ONE contract to determine market value...not how it works

Rantanen also had less points...you think he is signing for 6M

Tampa is Tampa...they always get a discount

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Taxes are the only factor in your list that I think matter at this point. But it is admittedly a big one.

No, it isn't. The reason for that is that the only way Tkachuk can claim the tax advantage is if a Florida team offers him a contract. He's stuck either signing with Calgary, or signing a contract with another team that Calgary potentially matches.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Pierre LeBrun @PierreVLeBrun
Breakdown of Point contract:
Year 1, $5.25 M total ($1 M salary, $4.25 M signing bonus)
Year 2, $6.5 M total ($3 M salary, $3.5 M SB)
Year 3, $9 M all salary

Originally Posted by getbak

There you go Tre. Photocopy that and fax it to Tkachuk.

What, why? That means we pay him $9mil on arbitration in year four and then he's a full UFA.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

So you are using ONE contract to determine market value...not how it works

Rantanen also had less points...you think he is signing for 6M

Tampa is Tampa...they always get a discount

I’m not using one contract. But I’m admittedly looking at a contract for a better player stats wise, at a better position, at a similar age.

Rantanen’s salary will depend on term, but, yeah, I think less than Point if for 3 years. ETA - though Rantanen’s points are a lot closer to Point (though Col will say MacKinnon had a lot to do with it).

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by dino7c

He said we now know Tkachuck will be BELOW $6.75M

I highly doubt it...a match is the best we can hope for. Getting a 92 point player for under 7M is not the norm nor market value.

Calgary plays more than Tampa/SJ ect.

It is what it is

I don’t know where you are getting this info, 6.75 for 3 years is not a discount, it’s now the going rate and not out of line with the other shorter contracts. This typical though, posters on CP tend to always go high and then surprised when something lower comes in. I remember people were saying 8 for JG.

[Enoch Root]

$6.75M is now the highest 3-year deal to date, is it not?

I wouldn't call that a discount. And there is no way Tkachuk is getting more than that on a 3-year deal.

[dino7c]

Everyone expected him to get more...Boeser with 56 points didn't get much less.

A 92 point player under 7M this summer is a discount...every analyst I have heard today seems to think the same

Anyway I never said he gets more...I bet he gets close to the same.

Rantenen/Laine wouldn't sign that deal IMO

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

$6.75M is now the highest 3-year deal to date, is it not?

I wouldn't call that a discount. And there is no way Tkachuk is getting more than that on a 3-year deal.

Not only the highest 3 year deal, this year it’s maybe 3rd or highest for a fwd regardless of term. Among fwds, I think only Marner and Keller are a bigger cap hit (at longer terms obviously).

[dino7c]

How many 90 point players have signed short deals this summer...of course it's the highest, still lower cap than people expected.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by dino7c

How many 90 point players have signed short deals this summer...of course it's the highest, still lower cap than people expected.

Not by much. Evolvingwild had Brayden Point @ $7.15 m on a three-year deal. This is not a home town discount.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

3 years ago this was the long term money handed out to this type of player (Monahan, Gaudreau, MacKinnon, Barkov, Scheifele) times have changed for sure.

The cap has increased nearly 12% since those contracts were signed. Also, Gaudreau was the only one of those players listed who had come close to a point-per-game season in their careers up to that point. Gaudreau had no leverage in his negotiations because he couldn't accept any offer sheets.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

How many 90 point players have signed short deals this summer...of course it's the highest, still lower cap than people expected.

It might be lower than you expected but it isn't lower than what I would have expected for a 3 year term.

And you are really moving the goalposts here - a few posts ago, this was a Florida discount.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You still think that?
Or is that scar tissue from the Sutter draft era?

I do, unfortunately.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00005090.html

Sutter's era drafting was bad.

Feaster' drafting was not much better. Drafting Gaudreau in the 4th round of 2011 was arguably the most prolific thing Feaster has done for Calgary (drafting Monahan was a slam dunk). But 2 first-rounders completely wasted in 2013 did sting.
2014 Draft - meh
2015 Draft - reasonably good (Rasmussen, Kylington, Mangiapane)

2016-2019 Drafts - the only bona-fide draft hit so far was Tkachuk, really. Plus, some promising youngsters in Valimaki and Dube. Everyone else from those 4 drafts are still developing prospects; so it's hard to be overly confident in the new era. If you are, I am curious to hear your thoughts on why?

[Enoch Root]

Gaudreau
Monahan
Tkachuk
Backlund
Bennett
Jankowski
Dube
Mangiapane

Brodie
Andersson
Valimaki
Kylington

Are all drafted players currently on the roster. Not many teams can post lists that are better.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It might be lower than you expected but it isn't lower than what I would have expected for a 3 year term.

And you are really moving the goalposts here - a few posts ago, this was a Florida discount.

Still is IMO...every analyst I have heard agrees. Maybe you are smarter than all of them

Colorado would sign this deal with Rantenen in a heartbeat...he would want more

56 point player in Vancouver got a mil and change less

[bigrangy]

To everyone of the thought that a three year deal is useless because Tkachuk can take a 1 year arbitration deal and go to UFA, I think the point is being somewhat missed.

In 3 years, Tkachuk, signed or not, will either:

Want to live in Calgary and play for the Flames
Want to live and play somewhere else

If he wants to play somewhere else, you’re boned, but a contract isn’t going to magically make him want to play here. He can always engineer a trade, it’s not like young talent never moves.

Best case scenario for Tkachuk is that he signs whatever contract can help the Flames win the cup the most in the Gio window. Gio is irreplaceable but time will beat him eventually, likely before the end of his current deal (but maybe not!). Maximize the ability to win in that window, I think.

6.66 x 3

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Gaudreau
Monahan
Tkachuk
Backlund
Bennett
Jankowski
Dube
Mangiapane

Brodie
Andersson
Valimaki
Kylington

Are all drafted players currently on the roster. Not many teams can post lists that are better.

Yup. Every team still has misses but that's a good group, and a mix of players from early, mid and late in the draft.

That to me is a sign of a scouting staff doing good work.
Layer in the fact this organization hasn't had a ton of picks - and I think you have to feel good about things.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

To everyone of the thought that a three year deal is useless because Tkachuk can take a 1 year arbitration deal and go to UFA, I think the point is being somewhat missed.

We would also be (hopefully) extending him a full year before his bridge is up so he would be taking a 2 year gamble to go the UFA route. Sign an 6-8 year extension on the last year of your bridge and put another 50 -70Mil in your bank account guaranteed or take a chance on your health and your production staying at current levels to sign for a Mil or 2 more as a free agent?
A lot of guys will take the guaranteed money, some guys will roll the dice, depends if he wants to play here long term but if he doesn't then we're probably only getting max 1yr of UFA regardless.