Matthew Tkachuk’s Next Contract

[djsFlames]

12x12

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by AC

One other proposal for a contract I could see.

With Johnny and Gio both making $6.75M for 3 more years you sign Tkachuk for 8 years.
3 years at $6.75M as well, then 5 years at $7.75M. AAV of $7.375M over the 8 years.

Of note, that cap hit would be 9.25% of current cap, same % Gio and Johnny have. So it is Gio cap, in a way

[AC]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

Of note, that cap hit would be 9.25% of current cap, same % Gio and Johnny have. So it is Gio cap, in a way

[Enoch Root]

I suspect that it'll only be 6 years to help keep the cap down. I also think we'll see a trend to shorter contracts overall.

On a side note, does anyone else look at Luke and Hans and see Johnny and Mony?

Originally Posted by getbak

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I suspect that it'll only be 6 years to help keep the cap down. I also think we'll see a trend to shorter contracts overall.

On a side note, does anyone else look at Luke and Hans and see Johnny and Mony?

Old gif though, with GG in the background.

[LWcrowfoot]

The "Gio cap" was a good bargaining tool used by Treliving but it's almost impossible to see how it can be used as we approach 2019 for one of our breakout young star players.

Comparing a contract signed in 2015 to one signed in 2019 just doesn't match. Contracts keep going up and up and Tkachuk shouldn't be held to that low deal. Doubt he or his agents buy into it

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I see your sentences and do not get what is ‘bizarre’. It makes perfect sense.

Don’t get hung up on the absolute numbers.
- You have the player’s ask, you have the team’s offer. I’m talking about as high and as low as they go when they get to an impasse, not the starting point of 5 and 10 or whatever is obviously not mutually acceptable
- you have the gap
- you have the term

Use 7 and 8 instead of 6 and 7 if that floats your boat. It actually takes longer to make up the gap.

Say, for arguments sake, we take a case with this scenario:
- player and team have their starting points and negotiate to as close as they can get
- Player asks for 8
- Team offers 7
- This is where they both stop and don’t budge.
- Player holds out
- Player is so hung up on his number (in this case, 8) that he is willing to hold out 1 year

Outcome A:
If the player is willing to hold out 1 year to get 8 and wins, then after 8 years (ie 1 yr at 0 and 7 yrs at 8), then he has made 56 million. (After 4 years he has made 24.)

Outcome B:
If the player accepts 8 years at 7, and doesn’t hold out, then after 8 years he has made the same 56 million. (After 4 years he has made 28)

So he is break even after 8 years, but up until that 8th year he always has more money.

Right?

Now, let’s consider the time value of money. What IRR do you want to assume, say 8%? Ok.
The NPV of Outcome A’s 56 million dollars is 43.44 MM in today’s dollars
The NPV of Outcome B’s 56 million dollars is 41.65 MM in today’s dollars
So after ‘breaking even’ he has actually even left a couple of million on the table

It’s not bad math. At some point there, measured in years, there is a breakeven. And it’s not year 1, it can stretch out almost to the end of the contract, if the gap is small. At which point the contract is up and they have won nothing.

The team has the majority of the leverage. The R in RFA is restricted.

What can the player do? Withhold services. And not get paid.
And sitting out a full year at 7 or 8 million takes years to recoup.

The player has stubborn pride, but sure as heck doesn’t have the majority of the leverage.

Your whole premise is completely flawed by the fact that this won’t be Tkachuk’s only contract and how much he makes on his 3rd contract can be influenced by how much he makes on his 2nd contract. So the 7 vs 8 million in your example may cost him millions on his next deal.

I think you underestimate the leverage a top caliber player holding out has. Tkachuk holding out a couple months could hurt the Flames playoff chances. There’s pressure on both sides. Yes the team has more leverage but it’s not as one sided as you tried to make it out earlier in this thread.

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

8.5 x 7.5

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Your whole premise is completely flawed by the fact that this won’t be Tkachuk’s only contract and how much he makes on his 3rd contract can be influenced by how much he makes on his 2nd contract. So the 7 vs 8 million in your example may cost him millions on his next deal.

I think you underestimate the leverage a top caliber player holding out has. Tkachuk holding out a couple months could hurt the Flames playoff chances. There’s pressure on both sides. Yes the team has more leverage but it’s not as one sided as you tried to make it out earlier in this thread.

Your reasoning behind ‘completely flawed’ is completely bizarre to me.

I do not agree at all that the terms of an expired contract will have influence on a new one. Play on the ice will be much more of a factor than a dusty old piece of paper.

(Edit: Did you just suggest that a reason he has to maximize this, let’s say, 7 ish year deal is to set the table for his next, and UFA deal? And use that as a justification to call my premise completely flawed? Uh, ok)


I’m not saying the player has no leverage at all. Just much less.

I was talking about leverage. The player’s strongest card is his threat to withhold services for the full year, right?

Once they are close, the player then definitely stands to lose more by holding out. They have very few years in their playing career. One season is 5 percent of a very, very long career.

So the numbers have to be pretty far apart for a holdout to be worthwhile to the player. No chance to win, no chance to earn. Agent doesn’t get paid. Player doesn’t get paid.

Let’s put it this way. If the player doesn’t sign, the team can still make the playoffs. A good team still has a good chance. And the Flames have a lot of good players. (No, not all as good as him, but right now they have 4 in the top 15 of league scoring. So this isn’t like when the Flames went as Iggy went)

But he 100% certainly can’t be part of the playoffs if he holds out. He throws away (likely at minimum) 5 percent of his career and chalks up a zero on the NHL earnings board for that year.

Nope. A year holdout is a terrible outcome for the player, way worse than for the team.

[1qqaaz]

I think it will be 7 years and 8.4 mill per.
I'm quite sure about the 7 years, but not so sure about the AAV. I wouldn't be surprised if the AAV ended up being a bit higher.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ Is that in your mind giving UFA money to a RFA?

[Iggy Snipe]

There is no chance Tkachuk gets more than 6.75 million per year. That being said, he could get 8x6.75 which I think he would take.

He is not a good enough skater to get more than that. I love the guy, and he may be this teams next captain, but he isn't getting more money than the top guys. Tree could have paid Mony and Johnny both 8, but he was smart and was able to get it done for less.

Calgary has an "internal cap" of 6.75 mill, and Tkachuk isn't going to to get more. Lets hope as Flames fans he doesn't. The guy is a huge part of the team, but is not worth more than 6.75 per.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

There is no chance Tkachuk gets more than 6.75 million per year. That being said, he could get 8x6.75 which I think he would take.

He is not a good enough skater to get more than that. I love the guy, and he may be this teams next captain, but he isn't getting more money than the top guys. Tree could have paid Mony and Johnny both 8, but he was smart and was able to get it done for less.

Calgary has an "internal cap" of 6.75 mill, and Tkachuk isn't going to to get more. Lets hope as Flames fans he doesn't.

Actually, there is every chance that happens.

[Iggy Snipe]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Actually, there is every chance that happens.

Well, I guess we will have to wait and see. I disagree but i can't only hope we sign him for 6.75, which I think is absolutely a fair guess.

Many people on this thread thought Johnny was going to get 8-9 million per season as well.

[GullFoss]

6.75x7

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

Well, I guess we will have to wait and see. I disagree but i can't only hope we sign him for 6.75, which I think is absolutely a fair guess.

Many people on this thread thought Johnny was going to get 8-9 million per season as well.

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showth...light=gaudreau

No they didn't. Very few people did.

Gaudreovertime just posted lots, must have confused you guys ha.

[Yoho]

8.67 x 5.309

[dirk diggler]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

There is no chance Tkachuk gets more than 6.75 million per year. That being said, he could get 8x6.75 which I think he would take.

He is not a good enough skater to get more than that. I love the guy, and he may be this teams next captain, but he isn't getting more money than the top guys. Tree could have paid Mony and Johnny both 8, but he was smart and was able to get it done for less.

Calgary has an "internal cap" of 6.75 mill, and Tkachuk isn't going to to get more. Lets hope as Flames fans he doesn't. The guy is a huge part of the team, but is not worth more than 6.75 per.

i didnt realize that compensation was tied to how good a skater someone is. The Leafs really overpayed for Tavares then.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I think it will be 7 years and 8.4 mill per.
I'm quite sure about the 7 years, but not so sure about the AAV. I wouldn't be surprised if the AAV ended up being a bit higher.

I agree with 7 years. Treliving will give up a year to lower cap hit but won’t give up 2 years. My guess is 7 years will be a bit less than 8.4 but lots depends on how the rest of this year plays out

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

There is no chance Tkachuk gets more than 6.75 million per year. That being said, he could get 8x6.75 which I think he would take.

He is not a good enough skater to get more than that. I love the guy, and he may be this teams next captain, but he isn't getting more money than the top guys. Tree could have paid Mony and Johnny both 8, but he was smart and was able to get it done for less.

Calgary has an "internal cap" of 6.75 mill, and Tkachuk isn't going to to get more. Lets hope as Flames fans he doesn't. The guy is a huge part of the team, but is not worth more than 6.75 per.

Lmao thanks for that. I needed a good laugh.

If we get him for 8x6.75, Treliving is literally a f****** wizard and needs to be heavily investigated.

Tkachuk is absolutely worth more than 6.75. To think otherwise is complete and utter nonsense