Matthew Tkachuk’s Next Contract

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Calgary_81

But he can't make more than the captain?

Chances are at some point in the next contract, he'll be just that.

[JJJ]

Originally Posted by Calgary_81

But he can't make more than the captain? What about the "internal" salary limits ?

Internal cap will be broken on this one because A) Chucky is (likely) the next captain and 2) as a % of team salary cap at date of signing, it'll probably wind up close to Gio

[getbak]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Nylander has Gaudreau's a-hole of an agent. Not sure who the individual is but Tkachuk's agency is the same as Monahan's. Also negotiated Marchand's bargain contract. Horvat's pretty decent contract. Kane's $7M UFA deal.

His agent is Craig Oster, who also happens to be his uncle.

[Robbob]

His Dad had career earnings around 73.4 million. I think Chucky's contract will be pretty close to that on 8 years.

[Macho0978]

This is the first time treliving has screwed up an rfa signing. I think Tkachuk would have settled 6 x 6 in the summer. Now we’re looking at 6 years 7 mil as best case scenario or 8 years 8 mil. I wouldn’t be surprised if it pushed close to 9 mil on 8 year deal

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

This is the first time treliving has screwed up an rfa signing. I think Tkachuk would have settled 6 x 6 in the summer. Now we’re looking at 6 years 7 mil as best case scenario or 8 years 8 mil. I wouldn’t be surprised if it pushed close to 9 mil on 8 year deal

Maybe we should wait until the contract is signed before declaring it a failure based on assumptions. I think it’s highly unlikely Tkachuk gets anywhere near $9M/year on his extension.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

This is the first time treliving has screwed up an rfa signing. I think Tkachuk would have settled 6 x 6 in the summer. Now we’re looking at 6 years 7 mil as best case scenario or 8 years 8 mil. I wouldn’t be surprised if it pushed close to 9 mil on 8 year deal

Close to 9M for a 2nd line winger with 4 remaining UFA years? What comparables are you using?

[bax]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Close to 9M for a 2nd line winger with 4 remaining UFA years? What comparables are you using?

Classifying Tkachuk as a second line winger is poor analysis.

He is clearly an elite player. Our leading scorer and lifeblood of the team. One of our most important leaders for sure. All these and he's the third youngest player on the team.

[doctajones428]

He’s getting $6.75m

Not sure what the point of this thread is

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by bax

Classifying Tkachuk as a second line winger is poor analysis.

He is clearly an elite player. Our leading scorer and lifeblood of the team. One of our most important leaders for sure. All these and he's the third youngest player on the team.

He is certainly capable of being a first line player, trending toward elite/star status, but not a superstar. Only cup-winning wingers command 9M.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Too much AAV for a 6 year deal that eats up twice as many RFA years as UFA years.

I know Draisaitl got 8.5, but that was as a line-driving centre, came after he had scored 77 points in his 3rd season (a substantial increase from 51 in his 2nd, and they were likely projecting him to score 100+ in his 4th season at the time that deal was signed), and included 5 UFA years and only 3 RFA years. Not to mention that it was offered by the worst GM in the league.

Look at the Larkin deal $6.1M for 5 years just a brutal contract comparable and Tkachuk is a better player. Draisaitl is not a line driving center though he is an elite passenger on the wing of the best player in the league.

Tkachuk was on pace for over 60pts last year before his injury and is currently over ppg this season while having great possession numbers and playing hard minutes. He is the heartbeat of the team and arguably our best player. The ask can easily be $8.5 and personally I would sign him to the Draisaitl contract of it was possible. I would have done the same for Gaudreau as well who was rumored to be looking for $8M to go 8 years back in 2016.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by doctajones428

He’s getting $6.75m

Not sure what the point of this thread is

I wish, but I think that's unlikely unless the contract is only 6 years.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Look at the Larkin deal $6.1M for 5 years just a brutal contract comparable and Tkachuk is a better player. Draisaitl is not a line driving center though he is an elite passenger on the wing of the best player in the league.

Tkachuk was on pace for over 60pts last year before his injury and is currently over ppg this season while having great possession numbers and playing hard minutes. He is the heartbeat of the team and arguably our best player. The ask can easily be $8.5 and personally I would sign him to the Draisaitl contract of it was possible. I would have done the same for Gaudreau as well who was rumored to be looking for $8M to go 8 years back in 2016.

Draisaitl isn't a line driver, but at the time the contract was signed, all in Oiler Land expected that he would be. He is a natural centre and has more UFA years in his contract, so it would be quite a stretch for Tkachuk to get to that AAV. The AAV of wingers is almost always somewhat less than (production-wise) comparable centres or similarly-skilled D.

[AC]

One other proposal for a contract I could see.

With Johnny and Gio both making $6.75M for 3 more years you sign Tkachuk for 8 years.
3 years at $6.75M as well, then 5 years at $7.75M. AAV of $7.375M over the 8 years.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by AC

One other proposal for a contract I could see.

With Johnny and Gio both making $6.75M for 3 more years you sign Tkachuk for 8 years.
3 years at $6.75M as well, then 5 years at $7.75M. AAV of $7.375M over the 8 years.

If I were Treliving, I would sign that in a heartbeat. On the other hand, based on his track record, Treliving might push for $6.75M in each of the 4 remaining RFA years, then $7.75M afterward, giving the contract an AAV of $7.25M, which would be amazing!

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Maybe we should wait until the contract is signed before declaring it a failure based on assumptions. I think it’s highly unlikely Tkachuk gets anywhere near $9M/year on his extension.

Why wait? Anyone suggesting Tkachuk will sign a deal that is in the 6 to 7 mil range for 6 or more years is wrong. If Evander Kane and JVR get 7 and 7.5 or Stone gets 7.3 on a 1 year deal not sure why Tkachuk signs for less than 7 unless it’s 5 years or less. Sorry he’s getting 7 plus and rumour was 4.5 offer his demand was 7. They meet close to middle at 6 I would guess he would have taken it. That ship has sailed

What will marner or laine get? I bet around 9 to 10 so Tkachuk will get close to that

I also got ripped on here for claiming Marner could get 9 mil his next contract or John Carlson was worth 9. Not sure why we need to wait and see what seems pretty obvious

[David Struch]

You also have to factor in the wizardry of Brad Treliving here, 55 million sounds even better, that's 8 years with a 6,875 cap hit.

3 years at 6,75
5 years at 6,95

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

He is certainly capable of being a first line player, trending toward elite/star status, but not a superstar. Only cup-winning wingers command 9M.

That wasn't true for Ovechkin, up until this year, so Tkachuk would still have 9 years to get his

But Benn doesn't have one.

He's an RFA, thankfully, but if he was UFA, there would be teams giving him 9M a year for his prime here.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by David Struch

You also have to factor in the wizardry of Brad Treliving here, 55 million sounds even better, that's 8 years with a 6,875 cap hit.

3 years at 6,75
5 years at 6,95

Or you could say

4 RFA years at 6.5
4 UFA years at 10

The cap in 4 years could be 95 million. It’s pretty reasonable if I’m Tkachuks agent to think he could get 10 mil 8 years as a UFA. This works out 8.25 mil. Factor in Treliving track record for getting good deals 8 seems decent

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Some bizarre takes by Moustache in this thread.

Team does not have all the leverage.
Some bad math (thinking the difference in one of the seasons won’t be made up by the whole contract) and some lowball numbers if Tkachuk keeps this up.

I see your sentences and do not get what is ‘bizarre’. It makes perfect sense.

Don’t get hung up on the absolute numbers.
- You have the player’s ask, you have the team’s offer. I’m talking about as high and as low as they go when they get to an impasse, not the starting point of 5 and 10 or whatever is obviously not mutually acceptable
- you have the gap
- you have the term

Use 7 and 8 instead of 6 and 7 if that floats your boat. It actually takes longer to make up the gap.

Say, for arguments sake, we take a case with this scenario:
- player and team have their starting points and negotiate to as close as they can get
- Player asks for 8
- Team offers 7
- This is where they both stop and don’t budge.
- Player holds out
- Player is so hung up on his number (in this case, 8) that he is willing to hold out 1 year

Outcome A:
If the player is willing to hold out 1 year to get 8 and wins, then after 8 years (ie 1 yr at 0 and 7 yrs at 8), then he has made 56 million. (After 4 years he has made 24.)

Outcome B:
If the player accepts 8 years at 7, and doesn’t hold out, then after 8 years he has made the same 56 million. (After 4 years he has made 28)

So he is break even after 8 years, but up until that 8th year he always has more money.

Right?

Now, let’s consider the time value of money. What IRR do you want to assume, say 8%? Ok.
The NPV of Outcome A’s 56 million dollars is 43.44 MM in today’s dollars
The NPV of Outcome B’s 56 million dollars is 41.65 MM in today’s dollars
So after ‘breaking even’ he has actually even left a couple of million on the table

It’s not bad math. At some point there, measured in years, there is a breakeven. And it’s not year 1, it can stretch out almost to the end of the contract, if the gap is small. At which point the contract is up and they have won nothing.

The team has the majority of the leverage. The R in RFA is restricted.

What can the player do? Withhold services. And not get paid.
And sitting out a full year at 7 or 8 million takes years to recoup.

The player has stubborn pride, but sure as heck doesn’t have the majority of the leverage.