The Athletic: Dube article

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Lazar vs Bennett

Lazar is a former first round draft pick that is having trouble at the NHL level with the speed of the game mentally (my opinion). He has wheels, but he can't finish or generate chances at this level. Because of that he slips down the roster on a thin team (last year), and is now staring down a possible trip to the AHL as he appears to have become replacement level.

Bennett, a former 4th overall pick has struggled to produce at the NHL level but not to Lazar's extent. He is however showing signs of generating offence because his on ice stats suggest his line is creating than they are getting rewarded for.

One is in trouble, one has stats that suggest he may be figuring it out.

You can lump it into advanced stats but this isn't voo doo. The Flames are creating offence with Bennett on the ice based on shot and scoring chance counts. There is nothing mystical about his numbers at all. Good stuff was happening when he was on the ice last year to a degree that was greater than his line's production.

I'm leery of trading a guy with numbers like that as he may be turning a corner.

Your coaching reasons don't hold water because this isn't just perimeter shots and corsi padding. His scoring chance rates were even better. But yeah both he and Jankowski saw their numbers improve when they were put together, but not just Bennett with the gains.

This past season if you look at all forwards league wide that played 750+ minutes Bennett was ranked

40th in CF/60 (doesn't speak to quality)
136th in SCF/60
101st in HDCF/60

He may never figure it out and bring the production, but this is the wrong time to right him off. Lists like these aren't guarantees but there is little doubt that it's exactly the type of numbers teams are looking for when they go shopping for change of scenery players or players not getting a chance in stacked rosters.

So to get back to my original question, how do Bennett's improvements in chances etc compare to say, backlund or monahan or Giordano or ferland or gaudreau or....

How many players in the league are around Bennett in corsi but are worse in actual point production?

[SilverKast]

Everyone's just all over Bennett because he was a fourth overall pick who we all hoped would be our number one center, which hasn't happened. If he had have been a mid round first who was projected as a winger/center we'd all be happy with how he's performing.

It's useless to play woulda/coulda/shoulda and look at who was picked after him - he's what we have. At least we have a player who is useful - most draft picks don't ever turn out at all. I'm disappointed like anyone else that a pick that high didn't turn into what we hoped, but I can instead be glad we got a pick that looks like a nice part of the roster going forward if I adjust my expectations.

Just need to look on the positive side of it sometimes!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

- is this score-adjusted?
- is this an on-ice stat or individual?

On ice and straight up not score adjusted

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

So to get back to my original question, how do Bennett's improvements in chances etc compare to say, backlund or monahan or Giordano or ferland or gaudreau or....

How many players in the league are around Bennett in corsi but are worse in actual point production?

The Flames were a high corsi team so they have a number of players with great corsi ratings, that's why I had doesn't speak to quality in brackets on the CF60 number.

But the scoring chance and high danger counts are less team driven and more individual, and as an aside they match the eye test for me last year as I saw lots of chances being generated without a lot of pucks going into the cage.

[Flash Walken]

So to get back to my original question, if Bennett has shown a considerable improvement in that department, how does it compare to other players in the roster over that same time frame? Similar improvements? Not so similar?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

So to get back to my original question, if Bennett has shown a considerable improvement in that department, how does it compare to other players in the roster over that same time frame? Similar improvements? Not so similar?

Just had my pc crash and I'm leaving for chemo so I won't have time to get it back up again before I go but I'll reproduce it this afternoon.

But he was easily first in year over year values for all three categories and from memory he edged out Monahan and Brodie in scoring chance improvements and Monahan in high danger chance generation.

So I think this proves my point doesn't it?

But I'll get you hard numbers soon assuming I'm not on my face.

[pepper24]

Good luck Bingo with your medical issue and hope that you have a good appointment today.

[SuperMatt18]

Bennett:

15/16: CF - 54.7 CA - 57.6 CF% - 48.7% HDCF%- 50.5% OnIceSH% - 8.6%
16/17: CF - 49.9 CA - 52.6 CF% - 48.7% HDCF%- 46.3% OnIceSH% - 6.2%
17/18: CF - 64.2 CA - 57.9 CF% - 52.6% HDCF%- 55.8% OnIceSH% - 5.7%

Monahan:

15/16: CF - 53.4 CA - 57.6 CF% - 48.1% HDCF%- 45.6% OnIceSH% - 10.2%
16/17: CF - 57.2 CA - 56.7 CF% - 50.2% HDCF%- 47.3% OnIceSH% - 8.2%
17/18: CF - 68.6 CA - 56.7 CF% - 54.7% HDCF%- 53.7% OnIceSH% - 9.8%

Gaudreau:

15/16: CF - 54.8 CA - 55.9 CF% - 49.5% HDCF% - 47.2% OnIceSH% - 9.6%
16/17: CF - 56.5 CA - 54.1 CF% - 51.1% HDCF% - 51.7% OnIceSH% - 7.8%
17/18: CF - 66.2 CA - 56.0 CF% - 54.2% HDCF% - 54.4% OnIceSH% - 9.6%

So you can see that while the whole team had improvements across the board - it was specifically Bennett that had a huge jump up in High Danger percentages in 17/18 after what was a bad 16/17. To the point where his share of high danger chances was actually the highest among our regular forwards.

Bennett just was done in by a 5.6% on ice shooting percentage - when league average is closer to around 7.5-8%.

[Fire]

Not to derail the thread, but I'm almost 100% convinced at this point that Dube will be in the line-up on opening night. He looks like an NHLer and Peters likes him. Mangiapane will be sent down but will be one of the first call-ups. Hathaway will stay as an extra forward. Peluso most likely as well. I think the best thing for Lazar is go to the AHL and get some confidence producing at that level. Not concerned about him being claimed on waivers, but if Trelving is concerned then Peluso will be the one sent down.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Fire

Not to derail the thread, but I'm almost 100% convinced at this point that Dube will be in the line-up on opening night. He looks like an NHLer and Peters likes him. Mangiapane will be sent down but will be one of the first call-ups. Hathaway will stay as an extra forward. Peluso most likely as well. I think the best thing for Lazar is go to the AHL and get some confidence producing at that level. Not concerned about him being claimed on waivers, but if Trelving is concerned then Peluso will be the one sent down.

I would love nothing more than for Mangiapane to make this a difficult decision for the Flames brass. I don't think you can go wrong between the two of them at the rate they are playing, and the role they are competing for. Its fun to see a good battle like this in camp between two deserving players. Both will be NHL games this year.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by Fire

Not to derail the thread, but I'm almost 100% convinced at this point that Dube will be in the line-up on opening night. He looks like an NHLer and Peters likes him. Mangiapane will be sent down but will be one of the first call-ups. Hathaway will stay as an extra forward. Peluso most likely as well. I think the best thing for Lazar is go to the AHL and get some confidence producing at that level. Not concerned about him being claimed on waivers, but if Trelving is concerned then Peluso will be the one sent down.

Appreciate the laugh out loud on this one, proverbial coffee choke after reading it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Just had my pc crash and I'm leaving for chemo so I won't have time to get it back up again before I go but I'll reproduce it this afternoon.

But he was easily first in year over year values for all three categories and from memory he edged out Monahan and Brodie in scoring chance improvements and Monahan in high danger chance generation.

So I think this proves my point doesn't it?

But I'll get you hard numbers soon assuming I'm not on my face.

Year over year details ...

The team year over year was up 12% in CF60, 15% in SCF60, and 23% in HDCF60 ... which in itself is interesting as they actually increased their scoring chance rates considerably more than just their raw CF rates ... putting a dent in the perimeter team theory.

Bennett was up 29%, 45% and 68%.

He ranked first in all three year over year categories.


CF60
1. Bennett
2. Brouwer!
3. Monahan

SCF60
1. Bennett
2. Giordano
3. Monahan

HDCF60
1. Bennett
2. Monahan
3. Giordano

Kind of has me intrigued about Monahan now too ... that's not a bad season given his injuries.

But bringing in your request, just further proof that Bennett shouldn't be written off.

[Hackey]

Obviously Bennett is such a disappointment because of his draft position but that was a pretty weak draft. There is no one drafted after him who I think we really missed on. He is still 10th in scoring from that draft year. Ehlers is probably the only guy who wouldn't have been a huge surprise at 4. I can live with missing on Dal Colle, Virtanen, Fleury. Nylander and Ehlers would definitely help the team but that's easy with hindsight. If anything is a bigger disappointment its that one of Reinhart or Draisaitl didn't fall to us.

Looking at these draft rankings only 1/12 of them had him at #4.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2014-nhl-d...pect-rankings/

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Obviously Bennett is such a disappointment because of his draft position but that was a pretty weak draft. There is no one drafted after him who I think we really missed on. He is still 10th in scoring from that draft year. Ehlers is probably the only guy who wouldn't have been a huge surprise at 4. I can live with missing on Dal Colle, Virtanen, Fleury. Nylander and Ehlers would definitely help the team but that's easy with hindsight. If anything is a bigger disappointment its that one of Reinhart or Draisaitl didn't fall to us.

Looking at these draft rankings only 1/12 of them had him at #4.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2014-nhl-d...pect-rankings/

I was probably the biggest booster of Ehlers on CP going into that draft and even I wouldn’t have taken him when Bennett was surprisingly available at our pick.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Obviously Bennett is such a disappointment because of his draft position but that was a pretty weak draft. There is no one drafted after him who I think we really missed on. He is still 10th in scoring from that draft year. Ehlers is probably the only guy who wouldn't have been a huge surprise at 4. I can live with missing on Dal Colle, Virtanen, Fleury. Nylander and Ehlers would definitely help the team but that's easy with hindsight. If anything is a bigger disappointment its that one of Reinhart or Draisaitl didn't fall to us.

Looking at these draft rankings only 1/12 of them had him at #4.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2014-nhl-d...pect-rankings/

I was so ridiculously pumped when the Oilers drafted Draisaitl leaving Bennett for us. In hindsight how great would our team be right now with a Monahan-Draisaitl 1-2 punch?

I have been a huge believer in Bennett but time is running out on him breaking out with the Flames