The Athletic: Dube article

[GullFoss]

lol...another bennett thread!

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by David Struch

Sam Bennett has produced no better than Troy Brouwer has during the past three seasons.

82 18 21 39
74 13 12 25
76 6 16 22

That's a bit disingenuous to say the least. For at least two of those seasons, Brouwer's production was boosted by tons of ice time especially on the #1 power play units of teams, something Bennett hasn't had in any of those three seasons because he's a left shot on a team full of them. And in 2015-16, a lot of their difference in production was skewed by secondary assists, as Hartley's offensive system spread usually afforded more second assists to defensemen while Brouwer was the beneficiary of playing with an excellent playmaking centre in Stastny. You can see the difference between the two 5v5 below:





So over that span, Bennett has outproduced Brouwer by over 28% in terms of points, and over 46% in terms of primary points at 5v5.

Never mind that Bennett drives way more scoring chances, is a far superior two-way player and penalty killer, and is a pretty good centre away from, you guessed it, Troy Brouwer.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

Neither of them have ever played in the NHL and would probably need to be sheltered. While Dube may be showing some offensive production he doesn't have experience yet with NHL level of play, "he does have speed which will be a great asset!" Personally I would rather have Dube and Bennett on the team than one without the other.

Originally Posted by Monahan For Mayor

Valid concern. I'm just saying the way they are playing this camp they deserve the chance. (Eat Bread and Dube) Both.

Mangiapane will get his chances when injuries occur. There is no need to be rushing to push out a young, talented player to make room for him.

The goal should be to have all three guys on the team contributing.. Why do we need to pick and choose between them. Ideally a player like Mangiapane replaces a guy like Frolik not a guy like Bennett.

The beauty with how Treliving has managed the cap, coinciding the fact we have guys like Dube, Andersson, Mangiapane, Valimaki and Kylington pushing hard for jobs, is we can remain competitive because we can replace older guys that have bigger contracts, with younger guys on cheaper contracts.

Replacing Frolik and Stone with Mangiapane and Valimaki/Kylington will go a long way in keeping the core together since we will have to pay Tkachuk, solidify a starting netminder, possibly give Bennett/Czarnik raises and deal with Brodie/Hamonic as UFA's in the next couple seasons.

We don't need to rush all these guys onto the team because, like I said, they will get a ton of opportunities when injuries strike.

Mangiapane will be the first forward called up when a regular gets injured so he will still get a ton of NHL action this season.

We certainly don't need to trade Bennett to allow him to make the team right out of camp.

We need to be smart and continue expanding the contending window by replacing older guys with younger guys to keep the cap manageable and team competitive.

Bennett should be in the group of players we want to be here for a long time - players like Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Jankowski, Czarnik, Dube, Mangiapane, Hanafin, Andersson, Valimaki and Kylington.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well a lot of arguing in hockey is about terminology and how we use it. In this case you're basically saying a bust = a disappointment. I think that doesn't necessarily follow the classical use which IMO is bust = non-NHLer.

Just wanted to chime in to say that the poster boy for NHL busts, Alex Daigle, played over 600 games in the league. Patrik Stefan played almost 500. While draft selection matters less and less as the years go on, I think for the top end guys, expectations relative to selection tends to be more important than for someone picked late. I think that unless Bennett turns into a minimum 2nd liner, he'll always be associated with that word, at least within this fanbase.

He's probably a guy who could use a change of scenery. I think most of his troubles are in his head, and while maybe his brain will never catch up to his skills, maybe a fresh start somewhere without the weight of expectations following him around can help.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

He is on the lower end of points on your scale and takes some of, if not the most minors of anyone in a similar spot. In my opinion he is a below average 3rd liner and more realistically a 4th line player. If he can cut his pims in half and maintain 26 points he'll be an effective 3rd liner.

On this flames roster he is a 4th liner.


But that's just it, isn't it? His production declines as the quality of his minutes decline, and his minutes decline because there have been successively better options in the lineup to produce in a per minute basis without penalties. His 18 goal season had him averaging something like a minute more per game on the PP than last year. Does he have any shot of that this year with Calgary's massively improved top 6?

For me, the time to trade Bennett for value has passed, but I am not suggesting waving him. I'm fine with a Bennett who scores 20 points, gets paid sub 2 mil and kills penalties as long as he isn't hurting the team with pims.

If he can't cut the minors he takes in half then I don't know if there is a place for him on the roster, even in a 4th line role. guys nipping at his heels offer the potential for similar offensive production without being down a man.

He may get pushed out for sure. But his rates last year were actually better than his rookie season, his finishing hasn't.

Timbit said this the other day. The kid just may be a sports psychologist or a week of good bounces away from getting his head in the right spot to make a big move. Or he may suffer from confidence issues for his whole career.

Rates ... Rookie vs 2017-18

Shot attempts per 60:
2015-16 54.5
2017-18 64.2
Up 17%

Scoring Chances per 60:
2015-16 26.8
2017-18 30.0
Up 11%

High Danger Attempts per 60:
2015-16 10.4
2017-18 12.7
Up 21%

And I think Treliving knows this and won't move the kid before these numbers settle one way or the other.

On the team last year Bennett's rankings were ...

CF/60:
8th / 6th for forwards

SCF60:
7th / 5th for forwards

HDCF60:
7th / 5th for forwards

So sorry .. the story of Bennett's demise isn't accurate. His production and finish is a concern, but the guy is creating.

[David Struch]

Yes, those numbers are definitely to be expected for the 6th leading scorer at forward last season.

[Monahan For Mayor]

Yeah Bennett can produce in a stats aspect. Does he pass the eye test for your guys offensively tho ? For me I like him along the boards. He can carry the puck into the O zone. It's away from the boards and when he has the puck on his stick that doesn't impress me. Makes a lot of low percentage shots, misses the net, vision seems to be lacking. He can drive the net very well but just doesn't seem to be a very dynamic player with the puck on his stick.

[pepper24]

I think Dube has upper hand on making team but want to see how Mangiapane does over these last preseason games. He's looked really good as well.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

Mangiapane will get his chances when injuries occur. There is no need to be rushing to push out a young, talented player to make room for him.

The goal should be to have all three guys on the team contributing.. Why do we need to pick and choose between them. Ideally a player like Mangiapane replaces a guy like Frolik not a guy like Bennett.

The beauty with how Treliving has managed the cap, coinciding the fact we have guys like Dube, Andersson, Mangiapane, Valimaki and Kylington pushing hard for jobs, is we can remain competitive because we can replace older guys that have bigger contracts, with younger guys on cheaper contracts.

Replacing Frolik and Stone with Mangiapane and Valimaki/Kylington will go a long way in keeping the core together since we will have to pay Tkachuk, solidify a starting netminder, possibly give Bennett/Czarnik raises and deal with Brodie/Hamonic as UFA's in the next couple seasons.

We don't need to rush all these guys onto the team because, like I said, they will get a ton of opportunities when injuries strike.

Mangiapane will be the first forward called up when a regular gets injured so he will still get a ton of NHL action this season.

We certainly don't need to trade Bennett to allow him to make the team right out of camp.

We need to be smart and continue expanding the contending window by replacing older guys with younger guys to keep the cap manageable and team competitive.

Bennett should be in the group of players we want to be here for a long time - players like Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Jankowski, Czarnik, Dube, Mangiapane, Hanafin, Andersson, Valimaki and Kylington.

I agree with your assessment. We need to keep in mind future development and cap concerns. Bennett on a team-friendly contract could be a good 3rd-4th liner and excellent penalty killer still under team control for a good long time.

Frankly, if the top prospects continue to show well, I wouldn't mind moving Frolik and Stone at the trade deadline to continue to build for the future and to make the necessary cap room available for our upcoming free agents.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by David Struch

Yes, those numbers are definitely to be expected for the 6th leading scorer at forward last season.

Didn't you have him falling out of the third line in terms of league wide value? Which is it?

[Imported_Aussie]

Dube has produced more than Mangiapane, but they have both played well. The Flames can always start Dube in the NHL, then if his play drops either sit him to watch from pressbox and reinsert into team, or send down to AHL with a better idea of what he needs to work on. And then Mangiapane comes back up.
I could see the Flames going to the 13/14 forwards for short term needs, then using callups for longer fills in the lineup, and whether Dube starts or goes to the AHL, I think he will play in the NHL at some point this year.


Long term, I look at the makeup of the forward group and there are guys like Frolik and Ryan who are IMO short term placeholders, and the hope would be that guys in the system like Dube start to make these guys redundant while they are on low cap hit contracts. That group of hopefuls would also include Czarnik, Bennett, Jankowski, Mangiapane, Foo, with Phillips being a real wildcard in that mix (boom/bust). Good healthy competition for spots, which should hopefully lead to using some of these players as currency to recoup draft picks to restock the pipeline or address the deficiency in net

[David Struch]

Originally Posted by the2bears

I think it's you that won't be satisfied, which is fine, but why are you projecting this onto "Flames fans"?

I highly doubt that I'll be the only unsatisfied Flames fan if Sam Bennett puts up even less points this season.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He may get pushed out for sure. But his rates last year were actually better than his rookie season, his finishing hasn't.

Timbit said this the other day. The kid just may be a sports psychologist or a week of good bounces away from getting his head in the right spot to make a big move. Or he may suffer from confidence issues for his whole career.

Rates ... Rookie vs 2017-18

Shot attempts per 60:
2015-16 54.5
2017-18 64.2
Up 17%

Scoring Chances per 60:
2015-16 26.8
2017-18 30.0
Up 11%

High Danger Attempts per 60:
2015-16 10.4
2017-18 12.7
Up 21%

how does this compare to team averqges? Wasn't the team averaging a similar increase shots, chances and danger chances? Didn't you say there was a 10% increase in shots based in how they were counted?

Can't you explain that away with coaching? Didn't the whole roster show improvements in that regard as compared to Hartley's tenure?

How did Bennett's rates change once he was moved to Jankos wing, up or down?

Wasn't a criticism of Gulutzan that he was coaching for corsi?

On the team last year Bennett's rankings were ...

CF/60:
8th / 6th for forwards

SCF60:
7th / 5th for forwards

HDCF60:
7th / 5th for forwards

So sorry .. the story of Bennett's demise isn't accurate. His production and finish is a concern, but the guy is creating.

If a tree falls in the forest but it doesn't register as a goal or assist, does anyone notice?

My whole point is that Bennett does not produce enough tangible offense to justify getting too 9 icetime, especially in light of his penalties.

If he is creating a bunch of advances stats metrics that aren't translating to tangible offense, doesn't that give weight to my argument.

[N26]

For a lot of young players, regardless of the draft position, their 4th year is often the one where they put it all together.

I remember this being proven by someone a few years ago. I think it was the TSN stats guy.

Perhaps Bennett will help prove that rule. Hope so.

Since it is just another thread hijacked by Bennett I will add that Dubé looks great. Looking forward to watching his career. Great pick and very enjoyable to be reminded it was a pick from the Russell trade.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

how does this compare to team averqges? Wasn't the team averaging a similar increase shots, chances and danger chances? Didn't you say there was a 10% increase in shots based in how they were counted?

Can't you explain that away with coaching? Didn't the whole roster show improvements in that regard as compared to Hartley's tenure?

How did Bennett's rates change once he was moved to Jankos wing, up or down?

Wasn't a criticism of Gulutzan that he was coaching for corsi?


If a tree falls in the forest but it doesn't register as a goal or assist, does anyone notice?

My whole point is that Bennett does not produce enough tangible offense to justify getting too 9 icetime, especially in light of his penalties.

If he is creating a bunch of advances stats metrics that aren't translating to tangible offense, doesn't that give weight to my argument.

Lazar vs Bennett

Lazar is a former first round draft pick that is having trouble at the NHL level with the speed of the game mentally (my opinion). He has wheels, but he can't finish or generate chances at this level. Because of that he slips down the roster on a thin team (last year), and is now staring down a possible trip to the AHL as he appears to have become replacement level.

Bennett, a former 4th overall pick has struggled to produce at the NHL level but not to Lazar's extent. He is however showing signs of generating offence because his on ice stats suggest his line is creating than they are getting rewarded for.

One is in trouble, one has stats that suggest he may be figuring it out.

You can lump it into advanced stats but this isn't voo doo. The Flames are creating offence with Bennett on the ice based on shot and scoring chance counts. There is nothing mystical about his numbers at all. Good stuff was happening when he was on the ice last year to a degree that was greater than his line's production.

I'm leery of trading a guy with numbers like that as he may be turning a corner.

Your coaching reasons don't hold water because this isn't just perimeter shots and corsi padding. His scoring chance rates were even better. But yeah both he and Jankowski saw their numbers improve when they were put together, but not just Bennett with the gains.

This past season if you look at all forwards league wide that played 750+ minutes Bennett was ranked

40th in CF/60 (doesn't speak to quality)
136th in SCF/60
101st in HDCF/60

He may never figure it out and bring the production, but this is the wrong time to right him off. Lists like these aren't guarantees but there is little doubt that it's exactly the type of numbers teams are looking for when they go shopping for change of scenery players or players not getting a chance in stacked rosters.

[Royle9]

Dube fever hitting the town of Cochrane, its been pretty fun!

Sure hope he makes opening roster so I can buy my wife a new Dube retro jersey for early Christmas in my size.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Lazar vs Bennett

Lazar is a former first round draft pick that is having trouble at the NHL level with the speed of the game mentally (my opinion). He has wheels, but he can't finish or generate chances at this level. Because of that he slips down the roster on a thin team (last year), and is now staring down a possible trip to the AHL as he appears to have become replacement level.

Bennett, a former 4th overall pick has struggled to produce at the NHL level but not to Lazar's extent. He is however showing signs of generating offence because his on ice stats suggest his line is creating than they are getting rewarded for.

One is in trouble, one has stats that suggest he may be figuring it out.

You can lump it into advanced stats but this isn't voo doo. The Flames are creating offence with Bennett on the ice based on shot and scoring chance counts. There is nothing mystical about his numbers at all. Good stuff was happening when he was on the ice last year to a degree that was greater than his line's production.

I'm leery of trading a guy with numbers like that as he may be turning a corner.

Your coaching reasons don't hold water because this isn't just perimeter shots and corsi padding. His scoring chance rates were even better. But yeah both he and Jankowski saw their numbers improve when they were put together, but not just Bennett with the gains.

This past season if you look at all forwards league wide that played 750+ minutes Bennett was ranked

40th in CF/60 (doesn't speak to quality)
136th in SCF/60
101st in HDCF/60

He may never figure it out and bring the production, but this is the wrong time to right him off. Lists like these aren't guarantees but there is little doubt that it's exactly the type of numbers teams are looking for when they go shopping for change of scenery players or players not getting a chance in stacked rosters.

Just for context, how many players played 750+ games?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Just for context, how many players played 750+ games?

Minutes not games

280 or 9 forwards per team

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Minutes not games

280 or 9 forwards per team

- is this score-adjusted?
- is this an on-ice stat or individual?

[Enoch Root]

yes minutes, sorry. and thanks

so top half or better in all those categories