Google says that Russia has about 33 refineries. Seems like they have been able to hit a handful lately. That is probably also why they have stopped exporting gas.
Considering how long they take to build, these attacks on the refineries are probably taking a good chunk out of revenues and with all the down time for repairs. Even if the damage they are causing is making them operate at partial capacity, that is something that will be huge as this continues to drag along.
Google says that Russia has about 33 refineries. Seems like they have been able to hit a handful lately. That is probably also why they have stopped exporting gas.
Considering how long they take to build, these attacks on the refineries are probably taking a good chunk out of revenues and with all the down time for repairs. Even if the damage they are causing is making them operate at partial capacity, that is something that will be huge as this continues to drag along.
Downside of your main export being combustible.
Ukraine's main export is food. Much harder to attack.
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That's all Russian propaganda. No one outside Russia knows the real numbers, and they are not likely to give any real numbers to outsiders.
(Russia being Russia, it's questionable if anyone inside Russia knows the real numbers.)
Those are numbers cited by the Economist, the Carnegie Endowment, and the Washington Post - hardly organizations that have a track record of peddling pro-Russian propaganda.
Yes, the internal economy of Russia is murky, and it’s hard to get credible information. But if we’re to assume none of the economic data about Russia is credible, then we have no way of knowing if sanctions are hurting them at all. And where does that leave us?
What we do have is data showing that Russian trade with China, India, Turkey, Egypt, the Central Asian Republics, and the Gulf States is booming. This isn’t the 90s anymore, and the West doesn’t have a stranglehold on global trade. Most of the developing world doesn’t consider the invasion of Ukraine to be any of their business, and they’ll happily circumvent sanctions against Russia if it’s good business for them.
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Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
Those are numbers cited by the Economist, the Carnegie Endowment, and the Washington Post - hardly organizations that have a track record of peddling pro-Russian propaganda.
Yes, the internal economy of Russia is murky, and it’s hard to get credible information. But if we’re to assume none of the economic data about Russia is credible, then we have no way of knowing if sanctions are hurting them at all. And where does that leave us?
What we do have is data showing that Russian trade with China, India, Turkey, Egypt, the Central Asian Republics, and the Gulf States is booming. This isn’t the 90s anymore, and the West doesn’t have a stranglehold on global trade. Most of the developing world doesn’t consider the invasion of Ukraine to be any of their business, and they’ll happily circumvent sanctions against Russia if it’s good business for them.
Those are all outlets that peddled the Russian separatist myth giving cover to Putin's maneuvering since the 2014 revolution. Most of them had Russian bureaus stocked with the usual "good russians" filling our craw with russophile manure, state sanctioned or not.
Disbelief in anything from Russia is the only prudent path forward, these people are irredeemable cattle. They hate us, they wish to destroy the post WW2 world order and we should perceive it this way until the whole thing collapses.
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Google says that Russia has about 33 refineries. Seems like they have been able to hit a handful lately. That is probably also why they have stopped exporting gas.
Considering how long they take to build, these attacks on the refineries are probably taking a good chunk out of revenues and with all the down time for repairs. Even if the damage they are causing is making them operate at partial capacity, that is something that will be huge as this continues to drag along.
Great, that's the beginning of Red Storm Rising
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Russia was shipping its dissident populations east long before the revolution, it is a Russian punishment that the Bolsheviks continued as Putin has
Those three are responsible for the deaths of millions, possibly tens of millions (mostly Ukrainians). Cant pin that on Russians because the Czars exiled a few anarchists and criminals (mostly Russians) to Siberia.
Those are numbers cited by the Economist, the Carnegie Endowment, and the Washington Post - hardly organizations that have a track record of peddling pro-Russian propaganda.
It doesn't matter who quotes that number, when we know where that number comes from. That's literally just something Putin has said. Yeah, obviously he's going to claim the sanctions aren't doing anything and Russia is gloriously outpacing everyone. Thw Economist quoting it doesn't change the source or credibility here. (The Economist also sucks, but that's another thing.)
You don't have to be pro-Russia to be lazy or stupid.
It's also worth remembering that greed is a thing. The sanctions are hurting the pockets of many corporations and rich people, who would love to get rid of them for their own selfish reasons
In other words, global financial interests are anti-sanctions.
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Yes, the internal economy of Russia is murky, and it’s hard to get credible information. But if we’re to assume none of the economic data about Russia is credible, then we have no way of knowing if sanctions are hurting them at all. And where does that leave us?
First of all, believing something obviously not credible is always worse than admitting you just don't know.
Second, there's tons od evidence that the sanctions have severely hurt Russia. The string of anecdotes about massive inflation and lack of spare parts is overwhelming, and the battle field impacts of the sanctions are also unassailable obvious, even if we can't estimate the exact scale of the impact.
There are also other, more independent sources who try to make their own estimates, and they generally estimate that Russia saw a GDP shrinkage of somewhere between 1-3%
This is also one of those times where it's important to remember how imperfect GDP is as a tool of measuring economic performance. The GDP of Russia is massively inflated because Russia is producing massive amounts of stuff that goes boom in Ukraine, and it's financing that production by robbing the coffers of it's major companies, and by deficit spending from the buffer funds they set up before the war.
Those are not normal economically sound ways to pump up production.
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What we do have is data showing that Russian trade with China, India, Turkey, Egypt, the Central Asian Republics, and the Gulf States is booming.
Russia is buying huge amounts of stuff from China and India in exchange for massive amounts of fossil fuels that's being sold at a price that's well below market value. That's not a situation of "booming trade", only one side is getting rich there and it's not Russia.
And yes, Russia is selling much more food and wood to the Middle-East etc, but the growth in those numbers doesn't make up for the decimation of their European and American trade. Russia selling a total of 4 billion in food and wood (mostly) with Egypt does not make up for the loss of a 20 billion dollar trade of hi-tech trade with Germany.
Russia also imports a ton of medical supllies from India, a lot pf which is again being spent in Ukraine. It's also not sanctioned, mostly, so it's not super relevant
It's not just about the numbers, it's also about what you trade. The main thing Russia imports from Turkey is citrus fruits. That's just not the same as importing diesel engines and power plants from Germany.
Last edited by Itse; 03-13-2024 at 02:59 AM.
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One more example of why big monetary numbers in trade tell very little.
On paper, selling 1000 barrels of oil for 100$/barrel and buying a luxury car for 100k is the same amount of trade as selling 2000 barrels for 50$ and paying 100k for 1990 family car.
The size of the trade in numbers isn't what matters, it's what both sides are getting from the trade.
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Haha. Message received, as I expected. Keep the war going, even if that means Ukraine gets completely leveled and their people continue to suffer. The west will rebuild Ukraine after they win, just like they did in Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.
How would you "end the war"? Like they ended it in 2014?
Early morning of 13 March 2024 - Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, which processes 18.8 million tons of oil per year, was hit by several drones, causing explosions and a fire. https://twitter.com/user/status/1767827769080111564
Last night, the SBU attacked three oil refineries with drones at once - not only in Ryazan, but also in Kstovo (Nizhny Novgorod region) and Kirisha (Leningrad region). https://twitter.com/user/status/1767853791313793320
Putin again threatens to use nuclear weapons, claims Russia's arsenal "much more" advanced than America's.
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The Kremlin has touted Russia's nuclear prowess throughout its two-year full-scale invasion of Ukraine, warning Western countries last month there was a "real" risk of nuclear catastrophe if they were to escalate the conflict by sending troops.
Early morning of 13 March 2024 - Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, which processes 18.8 million tons of oil per year, was hit by several drones, causing explosions and a fire. https://twitter.com/user/status/1767827769080111564
Poor little drone. That was supposed to be his last mission before retirement later this week.
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From HFBoard oiler fan, in analyzing MacT's management:
O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
Pulling out the nuke threat again hey? I guess it kinda worked last time so off to that well he goes again. Hopefully Western leaders dont fall for it this time.
The logic train just doesnt follow here. Is Ukraine really worth getting into a nuclear confrontation for him? I dont believe it and I dont think any Western leader should either.
Pulling out the nuke threat again hey? I guess it kinda worked last time so off to that well he goes again. Hopefully Western leaders dont fall for it this time.
The logic train just doesnt follow here. Is Ukraine really worth getting into a nuclear confrontation for him? I dont believe it and I dont think any Western leader should either.
If Putin loses in Ukraine, he's dead and knows it. That's dangerous. If there's a 1% chance using a small nuke can force a stalemate, why not try?
