2016 NHL Draft - Page 67 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Flames Draft Watcher · 03-21-2016, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W

I have no hopes of winning the lottery and have resigned myself to just hoping the Oilers don't win either. I'm mentally preparing myself to get bumped the full 3 places from teams behind us in the standings winning the 3 lottery picks. I think we've used up all of our draft luck on Monahan, Bennett and finding Brodie and Gaudreau in the 4th round.

The only teams that have a realistic chance of dropping three spots are the bottom 3-4 teams. Where we currently sit it's less than a 1% chance of moving back three spots. That ain't happening.

The lower our lottery seed the less likely we get bumped back. Even moving back two spots where we are now is far less likely (11.7%) then our chance of drafting top 3 would be (20.6%).

Let's not go overboard with the doom and gloom. Having a 1 in 5 shot of drafting top 3 isn't insignificant. The chance of moving back 2-3 spots from where we are is fairly insignificant.

druetetective · 03-21-2016, 10:48 AM

I disagree with Mcleod not having elite skills. I think his skating, defensive ability and faceoffs are all elite. I could see him being a Selke candidate for sure.

Not saying the Flames should draft him but just worth mentioning.

druetetective · 03-21-2016, 10:51 AM

If we finish around 9th I could see the Flames going off the board a bit and drafting Max Jones. Prototypical PF and honestly I think him and Tkachuk will be similar pros, despite the stats suggesting otherwise.

Frequitude · 03-21-2016, 01:07 PM

Draft pick odds using Enoch Root's standings-pick percentages combined with sportsclubstats.com's final standings probabilities as of today.

SuperMatt18 · 03-21-2016, 01:12 PM

Yeah as good as the two Finns and Matthews look I am not going to lose sleep about this team actually playing good and winning some games.

If you end up picking 6 to 8 it means you still get one of Chychrun, Juolevi, Dubois, Nylander, or Tkachuk, that is still going to be a good piece and we didn't have to pull an Oilers to get it.

The thought of Dubois actually excites me more then some of the others. This team could use a 6'3" 200 lb player who has 112 PIM to go along with his 99 points. Our top 6 needs a little more edge and Dubois provides it in spades.

MrMastodonFarm · 03-21-2016, 01:25 PM

Think Dubois is gone by five at the latest.

Still, some games left and a lottery.

Flames Draft Watcher · 03-21-2016, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Think Dubois is gone by five at the latest.

Still, some games left and a lottery.

He has a chance to be there later. Do we know yet how long his suspension is? While I don't think his stock will drop because of it, he may miss the chance to gain ground with a strong playoff performance. Meanwhile Chychrun, Tkachuk, Nylander, etc could have great playoffs and see their stock rise while his stays the same.

Dubois was 8th on Mackenzie's midterm list. While I think he may have risen since then I'm not sure its to a guaranteed top 5 guy. Plus it depends who is picking in the 4 and 5 spots. Lets say EDM picks 4th, Chychrun makes a ton of sense. If the Canucks are drafting 5th it seems like they'll take Juolevi if he's there. Both Tkachuk and Dubois could be there at #6 in certain scenarios.

Right now I'd have Tkachuk, Chychrun and Juolevi as the favourites to go top 5 after the Finns if I was predicting it. Dubois certainly has the talent to go top 5 but all it takes is a couple teams who have one guy ahead of him or who prioritize a dman instead and he could be there at 6 or 7. I think he's close to guaranteed to go top 8. Don't be shocked if a team has Alex Nylander top 5 or 6 and he pushes somebody down we like as much or better.

I'm going to be slightly disappointed if we draft 9th or later. I really think we're golden with a top 8 pick.

Forbsey-123 · 03-21-2016, 03:17 PM

Always find that this is the hardest time of year to be a Flames fan. I mean honestly, how many years has this happened where we go on a tear down the stretch and end up in or around 9th. Is it safe to say...In the 17 years I have watched nearly every game I swear this has happened 13-14 times. Most years I'll admit that it isn't so bad considering we are hunting for that final playoff spot and it gets pretty exciting, but in years like this that have been quite disappointing, it just gets old.

One of the only things that makes it a little more manageable is watching Edmonton screw their fanbase relentlessly. I don't even know how to talk to Oilers fans anymore....they are just in a constant haze of 'WTF is going on?'

Flames Draft Watcher · 03-21-2016, 03:44 PM

March rankings from The Draft Analyst. They don't just follow the "consensus". They seem to see franchise dman potential in Chychrun where some others are down on his season.

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/prospects/march-2016/

1. Matthews (C)
2. Chychrun (D)
3. Laine (W)
4. Tkachuk (LW)
5. Dubois (C/LW)
6. Nylander (W)
7. Puljujarvi (RW)
8. Juolevi (D)
9. McLeod (C)
10. Sergachev (D)
11. Gauthier (RW)
12. Rubtsov (C)

SuperMatt18 · 03-21-2016, 03:55 PM

The thing with the draft is that there always seems to be a surprise.

I think that really outside of Matthews who is probably the guaranteed top pick that really there could be some surprises in the 2-8 range.

The Finns should go 2 & 3 but we have seen guys surprising drop from that range to the 7-10 range before.

There always tends to be a guy who is ranked a little lower that climbs into the top 5 as well.

Good thing is that this season there tends to be players that fit the Flames needs throughout the top 10 - so wherever they pick it will help fill a hole.

ScorchyScorch · 03-21-2016, 04:05 PM

There are three lotteries now. So there's more hope now than ever that a strong finish could be rewarded.

The Yen Man · 03-21-2016, 04:06 PM

My dream scenario:

Dallas makes it to conference finals, Calgary gets a second 1st round pick.

Flames win lottery, draft Matthews. Flip either the late 1st or early 2nd for Freddy Andersson.

Come on Hockey Gods! Flames deserve this!

dammage79 · 03-21-2016, 04:11 PM

It'll be nice when the lottery is all sorted out. It'll be nice to know where the Flames finally pick and we the debate will hone in on who we like best at that range.
Quietly praying for the #3 pick.

Nylander, McLeod and Sergachyev round out my favorites if the Flames pick in the 7-10 range.

Flames Draft Watcher · 03-21-2016, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScorchyScorch

There are three lotteries now. So there's more hope now than ever that a strong finish could be rewarded.

Yep. A few weeks ago people were lamenting that the triple lottery would hurt us this year by moving us down. Now it's looking like the lottery could salvage our draft position if we get lucky.

Trailer Fire · 03-21-2016, 04:14 PM

We are going to go on a tear in our final 10, and the hockey gods of Old and New are going to reward us with a top 2 pick.

albertGQ · 03-21-2016, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

My dream scenario:

Dallas makes it to conference finals, Calgary gets a second 1st round pick.

Flames win lottery, draft Matthews. Flip either the late 1st or early 2nd for Freddy Andersson.

Come on Hockey Gods! Flames deserve this!

I'd rather sign Reimer (3 year $5M if possible) and keep my picks

The Yen Man · 03-21-2016, 04:16 PM

I guess if Flames do finish in the 5-7 range, then this new lottery rule is made especially with teams like the Flames in mind, and in hopes that tankers like the Oilers don't get rewarded. Knowing hockey karma though, they'll still end up with a top 3.

Vulcan · 03-21-2016, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trailer Fire

We are going to go on a tear in our final 10, and the hockey gods of Old and New are going to reward us with a top 2 pick.

Looking at the schedule we could easily go 3-7. Even 5-5 would be tough to do.

Hackey · 03-21-2016, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Flames have ran into a little soft stretch in the closing schedule with some bad teams in the Jets, Habs, Leafs but things ramp up a bit with the Wild (twice), Hawks, Ducks, Kings (twice), and Coyotes (they stink but own the Flames this season) so if they lose all those games they may drop a few spots. The Flames aren't very good at tanking but all hope is not yet lost.

Flames Draft Watcher · 03-21-2016, 06:25 PM

Anybody watching the TSN feed? In the intermission they asked the panel who the Leags should draft at 4 if the worst case scenario happens and they drop three spots. Choices were Chychrun, Tkachuk, Dubois, Juolevi or Nylander

Craig Button chooses Dubois, says they need LWs
Jamie McLennan votes Tkachuk, gritty, smart and skilled
Bob Mackenzie says Olli Juolevi

Just like the panel has a wide variety of opinion I bet the teams have widely different lists from 4th to 12th.