Ring Road To Nowhere

[Slava]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Let's do some math here. Let's say that the reserve gets a private company to build, finance, and maintain the road and the road is built to the exact plans that the province came up with.

There's some complicated interchanges, so let's say the project costs $1 Billion.

Looking at the 2011 Calgary traffic volumes, the highest volume of traffic on NW Stoney is 50,000 vehicles per day, so let's use that.

It's not a long stretch of road, so you probably wouldn't get away with charging more than $2 or so to use the road, so I'm going to use that.

Assuming no interest for the time being, it would take 500 million vehicle trips to pay off the road, and at 50,000 vehicles per day, that takes 10,000 days to pay off the road - more than 27 years. But traffic volumes are lower on weekends, so you don't average 50,000 vehicles per day over all 365 days of the year.

Now let's assume interest must be paid, and let's say that they get a really good rate of 2%. To pay off $1 billion over 30 years at 2% interest requires a monthly payment of about $3.7 million.

That would require 1.85 million cars to drive every month with a $2 toll - an average of about 62,000 per day everyday.

I think it's a little bit questionable whether you could pay off the road in 30 years. Do they get financing with no money down and money payable over a longer term than 30 years?

All that assumes that people will still drive the road as much even if it has a toll, which probably isn't quite true. It's not like there couldn't be alternatives, and if even a little bit a of traffic leaves the existing roads for Stoney Trail, that probably helps those existing roads flow much smoother.

The reserve would also have to get the provincial government to build the rest of the road that would lead to their road, or else the whole thing would be pointless.

I haven't gone through the math, and maybe you have, but did the other quarters of the ring road cost $1B each? Just taking a quick peek on wikipedia (fwiw) it looks like the others were far below that amount. Using $1B as a figure seems like that is inflated at least 25%, and is basically double what the NW section cost even after overruns.

There are plenty of examples of successful toll roads. Maybe the cost is more than $2. Maybe the entire Stoney trail is tolled and the amount is based on usage so that if you drive a certain distance on there you pay a corresponding fee. Perhaps this could be a half and half model where the band pays some, corporation pays some.

I think that the city/province should be knocking houses down in Lakeview should this not go through, so the toll isn't my first choice. I just think that the idea isn't exactly far-fetched.

[Resolute 14]

The city won't cut access to Grey Eagle, so there isn't much sense speculating on that.

If they vote it down again, then just give up on this stupidity and cut through the Weaselhead. It was man made, and man can re-make it.

[Ace]

What is the incentive for the individual band members to vote this through. Let's say it gets approved, does member 'A' get anything? Cash, a new house?

I'm assuming the only advantage would be the Reserve itself would be developed more, so possibly a few extra amenities, but other than that does it really improve the financial position of an individual family? If not then this thing will never go through, unless they distribute the sale price among the individual members some how.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The city won't cut access to Grey Eagle, so there isn't much sense speculating on that.

Why is that exactly? My understanding is we're not legally obligated to connect them there, are we doing it do be good neighbours?

At some point public opinion will switch if they keep voting this down, if that happens, what else would stop the city?

It's not like the casino heals sick babies or something. It's main reason for existing is to allow people to smoke and gamble at the same time.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Ace

What is the incentive for the individual band members to vote this through. Let's say it gets approved, does member 'A' get anything? Cash, a new house?

I'm assuming the only advantage would be the Reserve itself would be developed more, so possibly a few extra amenities, but other than that does it really improve the financial position of an individual family? If not then this thing will never go through, unless they distribute the sale price among the individual members some how.

Obviously, that would be for the band to work out.

What they should do, IMO, is invest the money into making the prime land leasable, or even develop some of their own hotels, retail, office parks, etc. That should make the band financially secure forever.

Remember, any retail on reserve land would not have to charge GST. That could make things interesting.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Why is that exactly? My understanding is we're not legally obligated to connect them there, are we doing it do be good neighbours?

At some point public opinion will switch if they keep voting this down, if that happens, what else would stop the city?

It's not like the casino heals sick babies or something. It's main reason for existing is to allow people to smoke and gamble at the same time.

Wielding a big stick can work (i.e.: threatening to bypass the Sturgeon Lake reserve entirely when twinning Highway 43), but the city has always treated this in far better faith than the band has. Providing access to the casino was a wasted bargaining chip, but one it spent on good faith. I expect it will maintain that same standard, especially since access wasn't cut the last time either.

We are already a couple decades past the point we should have stopped wasting our time negotiating with the Tsuu T'ina. The solution is, and always has been, to find alternate routes if the band is disinclined to be good neighbours.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Remember, any retail on reserve land would not have to charge GST. That could make things interesting.

ARROWHEAD AUTO MALL (c) (tm) (patent pending)

Time to propose a little joint venture with the Natives methinks.....Although I've already said too much

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Ducay

ARROWHEAD AUTO MALL (c) (tm) (patent pending)

Time to propose a little joint venture with the Natives methinks.....Although I've already said too much

Awesome because this was the first thing I thought of as well.

[mykalberta]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

...The solution is, and always has been, to find alternate routes if the band is disinclined to be good neighbours.

I dont come on the side of the TTN residents very often (so Im not called a racist I will call them the "TTN" (Tsu Tina Nation)), but to say they arent being good neighbours is complete BS. If the band was expanding and offered the City what was thought to be fair market value at the time for say the first 4 rows of houses along 37 street would the City just say sure, X is worth Y and you and offering Y so obviously we will sell.

Some things in life arent for sale at fair market value and sometimes even far above fair market value because it has more value to the owners than what the buyers think it has.

Good neighbours would have been for the City government at the time to realize this and create 14 street into what it should have been - a Glenmore style highway. They didnt - big surprise a City didnt have elected officials who couldnt see past their their own noses.

So now we are where we are.

Yes, the TTN could be in the same situation as alot of areas of the country that arent around big cities if Calgary were say 100km north or South or East of where it currently sits. But its not so that area has about 1M in potential consumers that if they developed just a small part could turn their area into very likely the top area of similar residents in the country and one that shows that evolving from old notions of the past while difficult can have benefits.

However maybe they dont care about the commercial benefits and care more about the history and they dont believe they can have both (this would be like Calgary not allowing any demolition of any downtown buildings say in 1970). That is up to them to decide. If they decide NO then I have no problem with it whatsoever and no one else should either.

If its a No vote then I do think the Province will actually throw out the TTN area and cease negotiations and work on the other options.

37 Street is easily the best option but I wouldnt underestimate the enviros who will play on some peoples impressions that the Weaselhead isnt man made but 100% natural and should be kept that way. I cant even count the number of times this has come up in a discussion where I pointed out the Weaselhead isnt 100% natural and is mostly man made and to see the "your a liar" looks I get - it reminds me just how many people care more about Myley Whorace and Hollywood BS then issues going on in their own backyard.

From a Calgary and what makes sense POV I would think 22X-37-Anderson-14-Gelnmore sounds like the better and more efficient option and while the people affected would fight I think the majority of the City realizing that its the only option would accept it.

Up to this point I think the TTN folks have properly used the environmental Nimbyism from the 37 street option as leverage assuming that upgrading 14th isnt an option.

Does anyone have a link to the Engineering studies done on the other options?

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

If they vote it down again, then just give up on this stupidity and cut through the Weaselhead. It was man made, and man can re-make it.

Yeah, let's just destroy one of the best areas Calgary has going for it. Man-made or not, Glenmore/Weaselhead is an amazing place and one that needs to be protected. We do enough of the "lets bulldoze it and build something new" with buildings in this city....we don't need to start doing it with nature as well.

[You Need a Thneed]

I still don't think there are any other options worth doing. Bulldozing a bunch of Lakeview and Glamorgan to make a road with a lesser design standard than the rest of Stoney Trail, at a huge cost doesn't make any sense.

You can't even widen Glenmore South of Glamorgan without involving the Tsuu Tina.

If this deal doesn't go through, the best option remaining will be to wait and try and negotiate with them some more, IMO. Waiting to get a version of this deal is always going to be a better option then any other option.

[You Need a Thneed]

52nd St interchange to open on Saturday.

[Robbob]

flying cars.

[Northendzone]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

52nd St interchange to open on Saturday.

sweet, this is mere blocks from my house.....

[browna]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Assuming it's mostly a more guaranteed version of the 2009 agreement,

Unless the province has actually acuquired the titles to the 4x worth of land they were going to swap, in addition to the dumptrucks of hundreds of millions in cash, then I can't see it being "more guaranteed". That was the sticking point, the Tsu Tina thinking that the province was going to screw them on the proposed land swap because titles weren't in hand....pretty hard to get all those titles in hand that far in advance. This, of course after the band leader told them to accept the offer.

Very good chances that it it is much more cash, maybe additional access built as part of the project to their commercial projects and casino. Surprised the details aren't out, but I expect that they will be before the vote....but cash is king and that's what will be the big addition now.

With the hotel going up beside the casino (in addition to I am sure the plans waiting for outlet mall type shopping), the TT needs a ring road type access to be able to bring people in....otherwise, who's going drive there as a destination, to stay at that hotel in the middle of nowhere? Besides the hookers and people running from the law, that is.

Moved out of the area now, but that part of town is fantastic; carving up one city home for a stop gap road would be tragic. If this fails, allow the only access to the casino/hotel from the other entrance via far west Anderson and build a cement wall around the current 37st/Glenmore area to also prevent parking in Lakeview, and have the Calgary Parking Authority camped out daily for those that do try and park in West Lakeview or South Glamorgan and walk over.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Why am I or anyone alive today responsible for what happened 150 years ago? People that treat First Nations as victims are enabling the cycle of poverty.

One reason is that treaty 7 and treaty 8 transferred control of VAST natural resources to Canada and then (eventually) to Alberta.

Those resources are the heart of the economy that you and I benefit from.

And those treaties were NOT square deals...

That is one reason why you might care

[oilyfan]

The Louisiana and Alaska Purchases weren't "square" either.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

One reason is that treaty 7 and treaty 8 transferred control of VAST natural resources to Canada and then (eventually) to Alberta.

Those resources are the heart of the economy that you and I benefit from.

And those treaties were NOT square deals...

That is one reason why you might care

Never said I didn't care, I just refuse to shoulder some sort of blame for the sins of the dead. Those treaties were signed by Queen Victoria before anyone had any idea what resources were actually here.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

They knew there was farmland, vast forests and oil (they only knew about the oilsands...but suspected ridiculous amounts of oil and minerals).

Like it or not...without those treaties we don't have access to the resources to build our economy with.

So you aren't to blame for what happened 100+ years ago...but since we are benefitting from what happened do we not have any responsibility?

[NuclearPizzaMan]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

They knew there was farmland, vast forests and oil (they only knew about the oilsands...but suspected ridiculous amounts of oil and minerals).

Like it or not...without those treaties we don't have access to the resources to build our economy with.

So you aren't to blame for what happened 100+ years ago...but since we are benefitting from what happened do we not have any responsibility?

Well, to be fair, I have a hard time believing that without those treaties, people would have just shrugged and said "oh well". Likely the resources would have been appropriated violently.