Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by handgroen

That's the other thing

who takes nichuskin?

I would bet on Philly or Edmonton.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by handgroen

If the flames pick say second (Jones is off the board) who would you select henry?

MacKinnon.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Yoho

I think Carolina is going to get a top three pick.

How about Tampa, they have all their veteran stars and they are still plummeting

Plummeting? There are 6 games left. You're not going to see a ton of movement.

[ComixZone]

if we end up selecting Drouin, I'll be disappointed.

Mackinnon, Jones or Barkov is who I want to see drafted.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Phaneufenstein

Must have been pretty high on Matteau who already played 17 NHL games

There were rumors that they thought they could get Jankowski with their pick.

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

if we end up selecting Drouin, I'll be disappointed.

Mackinnon, Jones or Barkov is who I want to see drafted.

Personally I prefer Drouin over Barkov

Then pick two centers with our other first rounders.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Phaneufenstein

Must have been pretty high on Matteau who already played 17 NHL games

That's one possible reason, they may have had a few guys in that range who they know they think higher of then other teams scouting staffs, another reason was to keep the pick as a potential trade chip, if they projected picking in the 20-30 range for the next several seasons they may have seen all the future picks as largely equivalent and thus wanted to have a 20-30 draft prospect with several years of pro-development rather then a 20-30 draft prospect without same.

There are legit reasons for the Devils to have kept the pick last year. A lot of them based on what are now shown to be faulty assumptions but reasons none-the-less.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by New Era

Plummeting? There are 6 games left. You're not going to see a ton of movement.

What does 6 games left have to do with them playing terrible this season, with all of their "ALL-STARS" in the line up. Their fan base must be as pissed as we have been the last few years knowing what needs to be done to that team.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by nik-

Thanks for this. The highlights for him do suck, so it really is hard to see his game.

Yeah. And he's not really a highlight reel kind of guy, although you can see his hands and how he reads the goalie in the shootout goals. I don't know what his offense will be like in the NHL but just from a hockey fan perspective it's genuinely delightful to see a teenager like him who's breaking up plays on the PK on one shift and making good plays on the PP on the next shift. To see that in a playoff game in a men's league is impressive, but none of that will end up on a highlight reel unless it ends in a goal.

He's a likeable kid and maturity is astonishing. His season was better than anyone his age has been able to do before him. Whether he's a good pick at 4th overall is another question. That has to do with how he projects in a few years and how he compares to other prospects - I don't know much about that.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Yoho

What does 6 games left have to do with them playing terrible this season, with all of their "ALL-STARS" in the line up. Their fan base must be as pissed as we have been the last few years knowing what needs to be done to that team.

He was referring to how it looked like you were saying we could pass Tampa in the standings, and plummeting still won't allow us to pass them due to only 6 games left

[Steve Bozek]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

How is it looking like the Flames will draft 4th, 5th, or 6th? I must not be seeing what you're seeing.

I'm just being a pessimist. The Flames have games in hand, and I think the infusion of young enthusiasm plus Kiprisoff's pride will cause them to win a few more than the other bottom feeders.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Steve Bozek

I'm just being a pessimist. The Flames have games in hand, and I think the infusion of young enthusiasm plus Kiprisoff's pride will cause them to win a few more than the other bottom feeders.

Flames are 1-5 in April with 10 goals for and 24 against. They've scored more than 2 goals once. Really don't see them burning off more than 1 or 2 wins in this last 9 games.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by handgroen

That's the other thing

who takes nichuskin? i see him dropping at least to 8th

with todays standings

1. Colorado
2. Florida
3. Calgary
4. Carolina
5. Tampa
6. Philly
7. Buffalo
8. Nashville
9. Edmonton
10. New Jersey
11. Columbus
12. Dallas
13. Pheonix
14. Winnepeg

I don't see him being picked till 8th with the players in front of him
somewhere in that 8 to 12 range. The thing that really scares me about this is i could see edmonton grabbing him and him being very good for them.

I thought he would drop more, but I bet he doesn't last beyond Buffalo. Nichushkin and Grigorenko sets them up quite nicely. Semin signed long-term in Carolina too - they might feel adding another Russian won't be so much of a gamble. The thought is that Russians like to play with Russians (though I personally don't really buy it).

I could see Nichushkin going anywhere from 2 through 10. If he drops further than that, it is because the personal interviews went badly. That KHL contract is scary though, that's for sure. However, the kid has exceptional talent and size. He could very well be an elite franchise player.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I thought he would drop more, but I bet he doesn't last beyond Buffalo. Nichushkin and Grigorenko sets them up quite nicely. Semin signed long-term in Carolina too - they might feel adding another Russian won't be so much of a gamble. The thought is that Russians like to play with Russians (though I personally don't really buy it).

I could see Nichushkin going anywhere from 2 through 10. If he drops further than that, it is because the personal interviews went badly. That KHL contract is scary though, that's for sure. However, the kid has exceptional talent and size. He could very well be an elite franchise player.

If he does drop that far I can't really see him going past Columbus. With their draft position and also having 3 first rounders, they are in a pretty good position to gamble. If the Rangers fall off the bubble and miss the playoffs then Columbus is looking at two picks in the 10-15 range.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I thought he would drop more, but I bet he doesn't last beyond Buffalo. Nichushkin and Grigorenko sets them up quite nicely. Semin signed long-term in Carolina too - they might feel adding another Russian won't be so much of a gamble. The thought is that Russians like to play with Russians (though I personally don't really buy it).

I could see Nichushkin going anywhere from 2 through 10. If he drops further than that, it is because the personal interviews went badly. That KHL contract is scary though, that's for sure. However, the kid has exceptional talent and size. He could very well be an elite franchise player.

If he drops to Edmonton, I bet they'll take him. I don't think it's that big a deal for them to risk that 1st rounder, since they've had high picks forever now. The lure of another potential high scoring forward will be too tempting for them to pass up, even though they need defence.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by vilzeh

also the SM-Liiga is not a physical league, that's a huge step to take when you come over to the NHL/AHL, because players do play fast and with power. The good example is Mikael Granlund, he has silky smooth hands and hockey IQ but he can't keep up with the speed & physicality going on.

Sure, that's always a huge step, but somehow that hasn't deterred teams from drafting European prospects. Barkov isn't in any special situation in that regard.

However, a couple of things. First of all, Granlund is tiny so obviously he'll struggle with the physicality more than a big guy will. Second, as we've seen with Bärtschi for example, it's a huge step from a Canadian junior league to the NHL as well. The leagues are different, and I'm sure that simply because of the wealth of experience over the decades and availability of information teams are more confident in projecting NA junior players. At the same time, there are fewer mistakes, stronger defensemen, and better goaltenders in the European leagues so the prospects end up playing a slightly different kind of game (and their highlight reels won't be as dazzling).

When scouts rank prospects, they try to take all that into account. Barkov is just the highest rated European skater, the same issues of transition arise with every other prospect.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

If he drops to Edmonton, I bet they'll take him. I don't think it's that big a deal for them to risk that 1st rounder, since they've had high picks forever now. The lure of another potential high scoring forward will be too tempting for them to pass up, even though they need defence.

The oilers should not even be considering who to draft with their pick. They should have that pick on the trade market to get some quality veterans to help out the young core. If they had traded the Yakapov pick last year for veteran help on the blue line, they would have made the playoffs this year.

[d_phaneuf]

I have pointed this out before but I don't know how the Flames can pass on MacKinnon (or Barkov) for Jones or Drouin

Crosby (1st)
Stamkos (1st)
Tavares (1st)
Staal (2nd)
Malkin (2nd)
Sedin (3rd)
Toews (3rd)
Backstrom (4th)
Getzlaf (19th)
Giroux (22nd)
Datsyuk (171st)

Those are the top 10 scoring centers in the league (plus Malkin) and their draft position

arguably the 11 best centers in the league as well (Kopitar probably being the biggest omission)

Center is not the place where "Elite" gems fall through, sure you can get good 2nd line centers later on, or you may hit the jackpot with a Datsyuk in round 6 or 7

but generally the elite centers are gone by the 5th pick in the draft

the elite d men are not, it seems to be a harder position to scout

from a Canucks perspective, I hope the Flames end up with Drouin, wingers seem to be one of the easiest position to find top end guys later in the draft, through trade, or through FA

The guy I don't want to see with the Flames (or the Avs) is MacKinnon

no one gives up on top line centers easily, they will overpay to keep them so you need to draft them, everyone on that list I posted above is still with their original team, and have contracts to keep them that way through their prime

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Steve Bozek

I'm just being a pessimist. The Flames have games in hand, and I think the infusion of young enthusiasm plus Kiprisoff's pride will cause them to win a few more than the other bottom feeders.

Highly doubt it...

1: At this point the Flames have just one game in hand on the teams near them in the standing with only Colorado having two.

2: If young enthusiasm counted for anything the Oilers would be winning the Cup not looking forward to hitting the links.

3: If pride factors in at all if Kipper hasn't had much pride for the rest of the season he isn't going to develop any extra now.


All that being said it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility that the Flames do draft as low as 5th... Carolina is just two points up on the Flames right now and a 3 point swing (Carolina currently owns the tie-breaker) in 9 games isn't impossible, unlikely but not impossible (SportsClubStats lists the percentile chance that the Flames finish 27th as 17%... 67% to finish 28-30). The Tampa Bay swing would be 5 points which is really unrealistic with so few games remaining.

If the Flames were to finish 4th from the bottom then there would exist a roughly 31% chance that a team below them wins the draft lottory and knocks us down a slot. so take that 17% provided by SportsClubStats and multiple it by 0.31 (Draft Lottory odds of those behind a theorhetical 27th place Flames team) and you get a 5.27-7.30% chance that the Flames draft 5th (the 7.3% is roughtly the odds that the Flames finish 26th less their odds of winning the lottory). The odds on 6th are obviously even less then that.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

[FFF]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

As much as people like him, this is a league where Ville Nieminen is a leading scorer. It's a league worse than the AHL.

Two can play this game. Corey Locke finished with most points the AHL in 2010-11. So one would expect him to dominate in Finland, right? Yet he sucked so bad that his team shipped him to Germany mid-season. He was far too slow and weak for our league. It might not be a good idea to draw simple conclusions based on how a single player is doing.

I'm not saying it's a better league than the AHL per se - it's just different, very different.