Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Essentially, one could say he predicts the Kings finish with 96 points.
His model presumes the Flames finish with less than 96 with 70% probability.
Assuming the Flames continue to 'buck the trend', they beat those odds and make the playoffs.

Based on the Kings play to date what on earth points to them earning 96 points? 8 road game left and 12 road wins all year

I will happily take any bets against the Kings that will give me the odds being tossed around

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Basically the prediction on McCurdy's model is that the flames finish with 94 and the Kings with 96, the Wild, Jets and Canucks with 98-99. This is hockey; a couple of bad bounces or a goalie stealing a game could change those numbers. But it's the best bet, based on his methodology.

"Obviously doesn't apply"... "Logic comes into play"... sigh. Why do you need odds?

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Based on the Kings play to date what on earth points to them earning 96 points? 8 road game left and 12 road wins all year

I will happily take any bets against the Kings that will give me the odds being tossed around

Fair enough - but lots are arguing 96 points doesn't get it done.
You are saying Flames only need 94 or 95 to get in, given they own tiebreaker with the Kings?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Basically the prediction on McCurdy's model is that the flames finish with 94 and the Kings with 96, the Wild, Jets and Canucks with 98-99. This is hockey; a couple of bad bounces or a goalie stealing a game could change those numbers. But it's the best bet, based on his methodology.

"Obviously doesn't apply"... "Logic comes into play"... sigh. Why do you need odds?

I don't need odds, but if they believe their own numbers I will take them

not saying the Flames will make it just saying they have more than a 30% shot

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Fair enough - but lots are arguing 96 points doesn't get it done.
You are saying Flames only need 94 or 95 to get in, given they own tiebreaker with the Kings?

I am saying there is no basis for saying the Kings have a far better chance, Flames have been the better team this year thus far using the only stat that matters

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Based on the Kings play to date what on earth points to them earning 96 points? 8 road game left and 12 road wins all year

I will happily take any bets against the Kings that will give me the odds being tossed around

The Kings are 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games. Whether or not you believe in that Fenwick-based model, logic says the Kings are far from done. Particularly when we are seeing everybody in this race beating cup contenders - including ourselves.

[Buster]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Craig MacTavish also has an MBA.

I wen to biz school with MacT and got to know him pretty well.

He isn't running a successful hockey team, but he isn't a dumb man.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by dino7c

not saying the Flames will make it just saying they have more than a 30% shot

The chart is also saying that since it has them at 40.5%...

[saillias]

Since when did that crap become the CP standard anyway. I'll stick with sportsclubstats.com, and squiggly's snake chart.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

The chart is also saying that since it has them at 40.5%...

And look at it this way: McCurdy's model says that in this situation, it will pick the 'wrong' team four times out of ten. That is essentially a coin clip.

Once again, people are getting salty over nothing.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The Kings are 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games. Whether or not you believe in that Fenwick-based model, logic says the Kings are far from done. Particularly when we are seeing everybody in this race beating cup contenders - including ourselves.

don't remember saying the Kings were done...probably because I didn't

all I have said is there is no way they are over 70%

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

And look at it this way: McCurdy's model says that in this situation, it will pick the 'wrong' team four times out of ten. That is essentially a coin clip.

Once again, people are getting salty over nothing.

Basically. The error bars are huge at this point in the season for the exact reasons I've stated: a puck going off a stanchion at a weird angle can result in a 4 point swing. Not to mention that injuries and special teams aren't factored in.

If I have to bet on whether LA makes it or doesn't, I'm still betting they make it, though.

[Enoch Root]

Are any of the chart supporters willing to back up the projected odds?

The chart says the Kings are favoured at about 7 to 4 vs the Flames.

I will take the Flames for $100 if someone wants the Kings based on the stated odds - the cost would be $176.

Kings win, I pay $100. Flames win, you pay $176.

Any takers?

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by malcolmk14

Record required to get to 96 points:

Probably in:

Vancouver 4-6-0
Minnesota 4-5-1

Fighting for two spots:

Winnipeg 5-5-0 6-3-1
Calgary 6-4-0 6-2-2
Los Angeles 7-4-0 5-3-2

Probably out:

Colorado 9-2-0 7-2-1
San Jose 9-1-0 5-5-0
Dallas 9-1-0 7-3-0

Last 10 games in bold

The only team out of the 12 teams not eliminated from the playoffs that has been below 5-5 over the last 10 games is Nashville 3-6-1.

Best teams over the last 10 Chicago 7-2-1, Colorado 7-2-1 Dallas 7-3-0 and Minnesota 7-3-0

So LA has to be the best team in the conference over the last 11 games to make 96 pts.

Flames worst 10 game stretch of the season 2-7-1
Jets worst 10 game stretch 3-5-2
LA worst 11 game stretch 2-6-3

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Are any of the chart supporters willing to back up the projected odds?

The chart says the Kings are favoured at about 7 to 4 vs the Flames.

I will take the Flames for $100 if someone wants the Kings based on the stated odds - the cost would be $176.

Kings win, I pay $100. Flames win, you pay $176.

Any takers?

this is exactly what I'm talking about...not a 50/50 bet

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Last 10 games in bold

The only team out of the 12 teams not eliminated from the playoffs that has been below 5-5 over the last 10 games is Nashville 3-6-1.

Best teams over the last 10 Chicago 7-2-1, Colorado 7-2-1 Dallas 7-3-0 and Minnesota 7-3-0

So LA has to be the best team in the conference over the last 11 games to make 96 pts.

Flames worst 10 game stretch of the season 2-7-1
Jets worst 10 game stretch 3-5-2
LA worst 11 game stretch 2-6-3

Great... our next 3 games are against the 3 of the 4 hottest teams over their last 10......

[Buster]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Are any of the chart supporters willing to back up the projected odds?

The chart says the Kings are favoured at about 7 to 4 vs the Flames.

I will take the Flames for $100 if someone wants the Kings based on the stated odds - the cost would be $176.

Kings win, I pay $100. Flames win, you pay $176.

Any takers?

"math geniuses" are rarely effective traders.

They usually HATE putting their capital into the market. Not "skin in the game" types.

[Buster]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Basically. The error bars are huge at this point in the season for the exact reasons I've stated: a puck going off a stanchion at a weird angle can result in a 4 point swing. Not to mention that injuries and special teams aren't factored in.

If I have to bet on whether LA makes it or doesn't, I'm still betting they make it, though.

I've never seen such an effective argument against advanced stats.

"Large error bars"....translation: "the data irrelevant".

If the error bars are huge, then let's stop talking about these models. You don;t need to be a math genius to develop a model that requires large error bars.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Are any of the chart supporters willing to back up the projected odds?

The chart says the Kings are favoured at about 7 to 4 vs the Flames.

I will take the Flames for $100 if someone wants the Kings based on the stated odds - the cost would be $176.

Kings win, I pay $100. Flames win, you pay $176.

Any takers?

Even if those are the actual odds it's a dumb bet to make. Way too much chance of randomness happening in 10 games. Flames could play like crap but fluke out enough wins or play great but get stoned by great goaltending.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by dino7c

don't remember saying the Kings were done...probably because I didn't

all I have said is there is no way they are over 70%

That is just emotion talking though. There is really no way we should be 75% either, but that is what Sporstclubstats has us at.

What they both are are models. One uses a format that favours LA, the other uses one that favours us. And given how few games are left and how we are trending to a race between two teams practically in a dead heat, the margin for error on both is huge. Hell, if you average the two models, you get LA at 59.6 and Calgary at 58.0.