03-23-2015, 11:59 AM
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#1241
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
They can't win every game 1-0.
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Only games King have won recently is when Quick got a shutout.
This isn't Price we are talking about
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03-23-2015, 12:01 PM
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#1242
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Franchise Player
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Obviously it will be a fight for the Flames down the stretch but any graph that gives a team with a 2 point lead and the tie breaker a substantially worse shot at making the playoffs is pretty stupid. To defend it is also well...not very smart
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03-23-2015, 12:02 PM
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#1243
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Franchise Player
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I hate and love how tight the playoff race is.
I try so hard not to think about all the OOT permutations each night, but I can't.
I check the standings and teams' schedules multiple times a day as multiple scenarios go through my head.
If/when we clinch a spot it will be a glorious day.
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03-23-2015, 12:03 PM
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#1244
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Obviously it will be a fight for the Flames down the stretch but any graph that gives a team with a 2 point lead and the tie breaker a substantially worse shot at making the playoffs is pretty stupid. To defend it is also well...not very smart
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You may not like it, and might not like math, but it has a very sounds methodology and smarter people than you do defend it.
I for one think the flames are an exception as there are every year, but to suggest it isn't intelligent to defend it is silly
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03-23-2015, 12:04 PM
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#1245
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
I hate and love how tight the playoff race is.
I try so hard not to think about all the OOT permutations each night, but I can't.
I check the standings and teams' schedules multiple times a day as multiple scenarios go through my head.
If/when we clinch a spot it will be a glorious day.
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It's glorious regardless.
We could be in the lottery race and letting yet another season waste by, like some fan-bases.
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03-23-2015, 12:10 PM
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#1246
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
You may not like it, and might not like math, but it has a very sounds methodology and smarter people than you do defend it.
I for one think the flames are an exception as there are every year, but to suggest it isn't intelligent to defend it is silly
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if you say so lol
a week ago it said SJ had a better shot than the Flames too
Giving LA an over 70% chance at this point doesn't make a lot of sense
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03-23-2015, 12:12 PM
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#1247
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Could Care Less
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
I hate and love how tight the playoff race is.
I try so hard not to think about all the OOT permutations each night, but I can't.
I check the standings and teams' schedules multiple times a day as multiple scenarios go through my head.
If/when we clinch a spot it will be a glorious day.
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Here's the only chart that we know for a fact and also the chart that we should be the most concerned about :
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03-23-2015, 12:15 PM
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#1248
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
a week ago it said SJ had a better shot than the Flames too
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No, it didn't. The Sharks haven't been over 10% in two weeks. The Flames' two week change on the chart is -3.4%. Stop making things up to suit your narrative.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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03-23-2015, 12:17 PM
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#1249
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Go Oilers!
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03-23-2015, 12:21 PM
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#1250
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
if you say so lol
a week ago it said SJ had a better shot than the Flames too
Giving LA an over 70% chance at this point doesn't make a lot of sense
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"lol"
The guy who made that graph has dual first class honours in BSc math and physics, a PhD in math, multiple academic awards and is considered to be very smart. The methodology has been proven to be very predictive. You can try to find holes like I have, or you can just call it "not smart". I'm fairly confident the guy who invented it is smarter than you.
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03-23-2015, 12:43 PM
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#1251
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
"lol"
The guy who made that graph has dual first class honours in BSc math and physics, a PhD in math, multiple academic awards and is considered to be very smart. The methodology has been proven to be very predictive. You can try to find holes like I have, or you can just call it "not smart". I'm fairly confident the guy who invented it is smarter than you.
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Craig MacTavish also has an MBA.
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03-23-2015, 12:45 PM
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#1252
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15
Craig MacTavish also has an MBA.
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He's probably pretty smart. Just not one of the best minds in hockey.
You know, like all of us?
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03-23-2015, 12:52 PM
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#1253
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Darryl has often said the NHL is a "3-2 League". LA has scored 3 goals or more in 4 of their last 10 games.
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03-23-2015, 12:53 PM
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#1254
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15
Craig MacTavish also has an MBA.
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Are you suggesting that's similar????
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03-23-2015, 01:04 PM
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#1255
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
No, it didn't. The Sharks haven't been over 10% in two weeks. The Flames' two week change on the chart is -3.4%. Stop making things up to suit your narrative.
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okay two weeks ago, it was fairly recent
I could have picked 65% of the playoff teams last summer so getting most of them correct isn't really that impressive
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03-23-2015, 01:06 PM
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#1256
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Are you suggesting that's similar????
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Nope. It was a tongue in cheek comment because of your "I'm pretty sure he's smarter than you" comment.
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03-23-2015, 01:17 PM
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#1257
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Franchise Player
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overall the system might be an effective predictor but it obviously doesn't apply in this case. Flames have a 2 point lead and the tie breaker, they have also bucked the corsi trend all year long. LA has mostly road games left and then have a terrible road record.
To say LA is over 70% to make the playoffs is not accurate, at some point logic comes into play. All these guys that are smarter than me are welcome to put their money where their mouths are and can give me odds based on their numbers I would gladly take it
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03-23-2015, 01:23 PM
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#1258
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Speaking of McCurdy, he says the Kings get 96 points.
So there's that.
(graph of projected points)
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03-23-2015, 01:26 PM
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#1259
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
okay two weeks ago, it was fairly recent
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The last time San Jose was above Calgary on that chart was almost a month ago and that point they had nearly identical records.
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03-23-2015, 01:28 PM
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#1260
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
overall the system might be an effective predictor but it obviously doesn't apply in this case. Flames have a 2 point lead and the tie breaker, they have also bucked the corsi trend all year long. LA has mostly road games left and then have a terrible road record.
To say LA is over 70% to make the playoffs is not accurate, at some point logic comes into play. All these guys that are smarter than me are welcome to put their money where their mouths are and can give me odds based on their numbers I would gladly take it
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Essentially, one could say he predicts the Kings finish with 96 points.
His model presumes the Flames finish with less than 96 with 70% probability.
Assuming the Flames continue to 'buck the trend', they beat those odds and make the playoffs.
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