Stockton Heat 2015/2016 General Discussion - Page 60 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

OzSome · 03-20-2016, 11:33 PM

Even though the Heat's record this season is not as good as we hope for, at least we see some positive from some players that got called up by the Flames this season. Nakladal and Wotherspoon plays like an NHL vet since their call ups. Freddie Hamilton and Kenny Agostino shows some promises while Garnet Hathaway stayed in the NHL since he got called up. Too bad Derek Grant didn't really got a chance to show he belongs in the NHL because when he was with the Flames, the team was awful. Ever since he got sent down to Stockton he started producing unfortunately he got injured during the time Flames started calling players up. I am sure Flames will not see the last of Grant in Flames uniform this season if he keeps up his play in Stockton. Hopefully he signs again with the Flames after this season. Other Heat players are definitely watching and hoping they will get a chance to be in Calgary uniform late this season or next season.

Flames Draft Watcher · 03-23-2016, 12:15 PM

Huska interview on the Fan960 morning show. Talks Grant, Kylington, etc.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/ryan-pin...cts-improving/

sureLoss · 03-23-2016, 06:49 PM

There are 12 games left for the Heat including tonights game.

per sportsclubstats these are the probabilities they make the playoffs depending on how many remaining games they win.

10+ wins guaranteed playoffs
9 wins ~99.9% chance of playoffs
8 wins ~97% chance of playoffs
7 wins ~58% chance of playoffs
6 wins ~22% chance of playoffs
5 wins ~3.5% chance of playoffs
4 wins ~0.2% chance of playoffs
3 or less essentially 0%

Enoch Root · 03-23-2016, 07:28 PM

2-0 Manitoba, late in the 2nd.

Enoch Root · 03-23-2016, 08:41 PM

After being down 3-0 after two, the Heat rallied to make it 3-2 but were unable to complete the comeback

Fire of the Phoenix · 03-23-2016, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sureLoss

There are 12 games left for the Heat including tonights game.

per sportsclubstats these are the probabilities they make the playoffs depending on how many remaining games they win.

10+ wins guaranteed playoffs
9 wins ~99.9% chance of playoffs
8 wins ~97% chance of playoffs
7 wins ~58% chance of playoffs
6 wins ~22% chance of playoffs
5 wins ~3.5% chance of playoffs
4 wins ~0.2% chance of playoffs
3 or less essentially 0%

That's crazy. Go 8-4 and playoffs are a virtual certainty. Go 7-5 and it's coin flip. Go 6-6 and they're basically toast.

At least they know where they stand.

Racki · 03-23-2016, 11:03 PM

You just can't lose back to back games against an awful team like Manitoba when you're fighting for your playoff lives. I was so optimistic about this season when they started with that 7-0 win against Rockford. This team has been a real disappointment.

Roof-Daddy · 03-24-2016, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racki

You just can't lose back to back games against an awful team like Manitoba when you're fighting for your playoff lives. I was so optimistic about this season when they started with that 7-0 win against Rockford. This team has been a real disappointment.

Ahem...from the beginning of the season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

So, of the 22 players listed here....

(7) Seven are rookies: Klimchuk, Smith, Carroll, Marcotte, Morrison, Kylington, Gillies
(7) Seven are sophomores: Hathaway, Poirier, Agostino, Arnold, Van Brabant, Culkin, Kulak

Plus, Sieloff is basically just a second year guy, as he missed pretty much a whole season, and Nakladal will be playing his first season in North America.

That is a very inexperienced team.

Hopefully we take that into consideration when we formulate our expectations for the Stockton Heat this season.

So not only were they a young inexperienced team right off the hop, but...

They lost Granlund to graduation then trade.
They lost significant time down the stretch from Wotherspoon, Hathaway and Nakladal due to graduation/NHL callups.
They lost leading scorer Derek Grant due to injury for a significant time.
They lost there captain and veteran Aaron Johnson to injury and to the Spengler Cup. He hasn't even dressed for 30 games this season.
They lost Gillies for the whole season basically, then Poulin was out for a long stretch too, plus Ortio they lost to NHL call up. Goaltending has been a mess for the team.
Kylington lost a couple months to a concussion.

Anyways, all I'm saying is that our expectations for this team should have been tempered right from the beginning.

It's made up of almost all prospects/1st & 2nd year pros and has zero AHL ringers on it.

Next year could be very similar too, as we hope to have Jankowski, Mangiapane, Anderssen, Pollock, Kanzig, McDonald and who knows how many others graduate to the pro ranks.

Alberta_Beef · 03-24-2016, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Anyways, all I'm saying is that our expectations for this team should have been tempered right from the beginning.

It's made up of almost all prospects/1st & 2nd year pros and has zero AHL ringers on it.

Next year could be very similar too, as we hope to have Jankowski, Mangiapane, Anderssen, Pollock, Kanzig, McDonald and who knows how many others graduate to the pro ranks.

Too many people assume an influx of young talent will reap immediate dividends. The AHL, much like the NHL is a league where too young of a team will make it very difficult to win.

And you are right about next year too, it is going to be a struggle for sure as they will have many or more rookies than they did this year. Next season we are looking at:

1st season

Goaltenders: Jon Gillies (let's face it he'll still be a rookie) & Mason McDonald
Defensemen: Rasmus Andersson, Keegan Kanzig, John Gilmour, Adam Ollas-Mattsson (unlikely), Rushan Rafikov (unlikely)
Forwards: Mark Jankowski, Andrew Mangiapane, Brett Pollock

2nd Season

Defensemen: Oliver Kylington, Kenney Morrison
Forwards: Austin Carroll, Morgan Klimchuk, Hunter Smith

3rd Season

Defensemen: Ryan Culkin, Brett Kulak, Patrick Sieloff, Dustin Stevenson
Forwards: Kenny Agostino, Bill Arnold, Garnet Hathaway, Emile Poirier, Hunter Shinkaruk, Bryce Van Brabant

The most veteran players we hold rights to for next season are Freddie Hamilton (5th year), Turner Elson (4th year) & Tyler Wotherspoon (4th year) and that is a line-up of 14 forwards, 10 defensemen (not counting the 2 who are unlikely to come over from abroad) and 2 goalies; there is not much room for veterans.

Enoch Root · 03-24-2016, 08:53 AM

Yeah.

There is some hope for next year though... the goaltending should be better and more stable. And there will be a fair number of guys that have another year under their belt.

But other than that, very similar to this year.

Alberta_Beef · 03-24-2016, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yeah.

There is some hope for next year though... the goaltending should be better and more stable. And there will be a fair number of guys that have another year under their belt.

But other than that, very similar to this year.

Very true, goaltending can save a team two-fold. It can keep them in games and give the team confidence which is vital for a young team.

But at the same time if Wotherspoon graduated they potentially have a defense where no one has over 3 years professional (AHL or higher) experience.

MarkGio · 03-24-2016, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Ahem...from the beginning of the season.

So not only were they a young inexperienced team right off the hop, but...

They lost Granlund to graduation then trade.
They lost significant time down the stretch from Wotherspoon, Hathaway and Nakladal due to graduation/NHL callups.
They lost leading scorer Derek Grant due to injury for a significant time.
They lost there captain and veteran Aaron Johnson to injury and to the Spengler Cup. He hasn't even dressed for 30 games this season.
They lost Gillies for the whole season basically, then Poulin was out for a long stretch too, plus Ortio they lost to NHL call up. Goaltending has been a mess for the team.
Kylington lost a couple months to a concussion.

Anyways, all I'm saying is that our expectations for this team should have been tempered right from the beginning.

It's made up of almost all prospects/1st & 2nd year pros and has zero AHL ringers on it.

Next year could be very similar too, as we hope to have Jankowski, Mangiapane, Anderssen, Pollock, Kanzig, McDonald and who knows how many others graduate to the pro ranks.

But how many opponents are icing AHL ringer lineups? I think most teams have these conditions. It is a farm system for all 30 teams and every team drafts 7 players a year, and have been doing so for decades now.

I think it's an excuse. The team is underperforming IMO.

Roof-Daddy · 03-24-2016, 01:14 PM

Maybe they are under performing, but it isn't like they are terrible. They are right in the thick of it fluttering around .500 most of the year. Maybe they are a lot like the parent team this season, in that they would have benefited greatly from any resemblance of steady goaltending instead of what they did end up with.

Still though, none of us fans should be surprised that a team this young isn't a top AHL squad.

Again, they have ZERO AHL ringers. The closest to that would be the captian but he hasn't even dressed for 30 games.

Alberta_Beef · 03-24-2016, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkGio

But how many opponents are icing AHL ringer lineups? I think most teams have these conditions. It is a farm system for all 30 teams and every team drafts 7 players a year, and have been doing so for decades now.

I think it's an excuse. The team is underperforming IMO.

No it's not an excuse, it's the way the AHL has always been, teams with the top veterans are often the best.

Ontario has 3 of their top 4 scorers and their #1 goalie over the age of 25.

Toronto has their top 2 scorers (one of whom is their #1 defenseman) and their current #1 goalie.

Those are the top 2 teams in the AHL. The Heat on the other hand have not had a single player 25 or older even play 40 games for them.

Flames Draft Watcher · 03-24-2016, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkGio

But how many opponents are icing AHL ringer lineups?

A lot

MarkGio · 03-24-2016, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

No it's not an excuse, it's the way the AHL has always been, teams with the top veterans are often the best.

Ontario has 3 of their top 4 scorers and their #1 goalie over the age of 25.

Toronto has their top 2 scorers (one of whom is their #1 defenseman) and their current #1 goalie.

Those are the top 2 teams in the AHL. The Heat on the other hand have not had a single player 25 or older even play 40 games for them.

They had serious talent with Smid, Raymond and Ramo join their ranks and provide leadership. Plus Grant is 25, Agostino is 23, Hamilton is 24, Morrison is 24, Elson is 24, Brabant is 24, and Arnold is 23. These aren't young 20 year olds like Klimchuck.

Not too mention Poulin, Orr, Johnson, Suave, Heard, Stevenson, and Riley all had stints.

I'm not saying Stockton should be the best team in the league, but it's still an excuse in my opinion.

Roof-Daddy · 03-24-2016, 04:05 PM

Those guys aren't 20 year olds, but they're almost all 1st or 2nd year pros.

Big difference IMO between a 24-25 year old with 4-5 years of pro experience and 24-25 year old with 1-2 years pro experience.

Alberta_Beef · 03-24-2016, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkGio

They had serious talent with Smid, Raymond and Ramo join their ranks and provide leadership. Plus Grant is 25, Agostino is 23, Hamilton is 24, Morrison is 24, Elson is 24, Brabant is 24, and Arnold is 23. These aren't young 20 year olds like Klimchuck.

Not too mention Poulin, Orr, Johnson, Suave, Heard, Stevenson, and Riley all had stints.

I'm not saying Stockton should be the best team in the league, but it's still an excuse in my opinion.

Smid played 1 game. Ramo 1 period, mentioning them is blatantly grasping at straws.

Also if you read my post I said top veteran talent. Grant is the only player you mentioned that can fit that description, so keep reaching but you are grasping at nothing but air.

Alberta_Beef · 03-24-2016, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Those guys aren't 20 year olds, but they're almost all 1st or 2nd year pros.

Big difference IMO between a 24-25 year old with 4-5 years of pro experience and 24-25 year old with 1-2 years pro experience.

Exactly, it's also not like these are 25 year old impact players on these top teams either. Ontario has a couple impact players that are 30+.

Roof-Daddy · 03-24-2016, 05:06 PM

If you look at all the teams in the Heat division, all of them have older veteran players at or near the top of their scoring, and/or playing in goal. Well, all except one as the Rampage look to have a very young roster as well and no surprise, they have the worst win percentage in the division.