Sutter re: recalling prospects

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

... a whole lot of Matthew Phillips love...

The question that you need to ask Mitch Love about Matthew Phillips is this one.

"Why is Matthew Phillips not playing in the NHL?"

Probable answer? His game won't translate. All those things he does at the AHL level are very unlikely to translate to the NHL, where the players are better, faster, more intelligent, and bigger. That is a deathly combination for small guys that are not elite.

The thing you completely don't understand is the NHL game is just so different, so much better, from the AHL game. Everything is amped up to 10 compared to the AHL's 1. All of the players in the NHL would be the best players on their AHL squads. All of them. That's what you have to understand. When you make the jump between levels, you're going from the best in your league, to a new level where every player was the best at that level. You were a guy that stood out, and now you're just a face in the crowd of players better than you. It's why Phillips never stands out in training camp. He's surrounded by guys that are just faster, more skilled, stronger, and flat out better hockey players. ALL OF THEM. Phillips is unlikely to get a shot because all of those attributes that Mitch Love to describe Phillip's game, can be applied to every player already in the NHL.

It's not a knock against Matthew Phillips or any other player, it's just the way things are. The jump to the big leagues is just so hard for people to understand. Translating success from one level to the next is not a given, and more often than not does not happen.

[Stampede2TheCup]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It’s great that you get so enthusiastic about prospects. But you’re still pretty fresh to this hockey analyst thing. In time, you’ll come to understand what every NHL GM and coach knows: That established NHL 4th liners like Lewis, etc are more effective hockey players at the NHL level than most of the players who skate in the AHL all-star game will ever be.

Here are the 2010 AHL all-star teams:

https://theahl.com/stats/roster/367/31?league=4

Out of the 50 players, only 10 of them went on to become established NHLers.

Thanked for the shoutout to Blair Jones as one of the 10. I know he's no David Jones but I always liked him.

[TheIronMaiden]

In defense of Scorps analysis, he has watched more of Phillips AHL games than most other posters.

That said, I agree with cliff, being the best in a bad league doesn't mean you're good in the best league.

It's a cruel league, you don't get second chances, you're tryout might only last a single split squad game, but the expectation for NHL players is that every game is their best game. Consistency needs to meet skill.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It’s great that you get so enthusiastic about prospects. But you’re still pretty fresh to this hockey analyst thing. In time, you’ll come to understand what every NHL GM and coach knows: That established NHL 4th liners like Lewis, etc are more effective hockey players at the NHL level than most of the players who skate in the AHL all-star game will ever be.

There are established fourth-liners in the mould of Lewis, etc. who have been effective hockey players this season and have helped their team. Even Lewis has probably been the best of the Flames' bunch.

But relative to fourth-liners around the league, Richardson, Ritchie, and Pitlick have been extremely deleterious. It has nothing to do with the type of player. There are similar players in their vein who are absolutely effective: Mason Marchment, Travis Boyd, Ryan Lomberg, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Sean Kuraly. I have no issue with this type of player.

Calgary's players of this type have not been effective at all. They need to be replaced.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

There are established fourth-liners in the mould of Lewis, etc. who have been effective hockey players this season and have helped their team. Even Lewis has probably been the best of the Flames' bunch.

But relative to fourth-liners around the league, Richardson, Ritchie, and Pitlick have been extremely deleterious. It has nothing to do with the type of player. There are similar players in their vein who are absolutely effective: Mason Marchment, Travis Boyd, Ryan Lomberg, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Sean Kuraly. I have no issue with this type of player.

Calgary's players of this type have not been effective at all. They need to be replaced.

Don't disagree with replacing these players if the coach isn't happy with them. Is the coach disappointed in their play or production? That's a question for Sutter to answer.

Having said that, you replace those players with ones that can play that role expected. You throw some names out there about who is effective in similar roles. Marchment (6'4, 210), Boyd (6', 190), Lomberg (5'9, 190), Bellemare (6'0, 200), and Kuraly (6'2, 205) are all a long way from Phillips (5'7, 150). Replace the ineffective guys but do so with players that can execute the roles in question.

[TheScorpion]

Right, but what if the role Phillips auditions for is in that second-line spot currently occupied by Tyler Pitlick? Next to a couple of well-built guys in Backlund and Coleman?

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Right, but what if the role Phillips auditions for is in that second-line spot currently occupied by Tyler Pitlick? Next to a couple of well-built guys in Backlund and Coleman?

The only way Phillips gets near the second line is if he is a part of a trade package.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Right, but what if the role Phillips auditions for is in that second-line spot currently occupied by Tyler Pitlick? Next to a couple of well-built guys in Backlund and Coleman?

What if someone from Loose Moose Theatre auditioned for a role on Broadway? They would be surrounded by amazing talent, so maybe their lack of ability to perform on that stage wouldn't be noticeable?

[TheScorpion]

I'm not convinced we're even talking about the same person at this point.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I'm not convinced we're even talking about the same person at this point.

We obviously aren't. You have this idea that Phillips is this incredible talent, being a top player in the AHL that has been held back for some reason by the Calgary Flames, and he's not. The guy has been unnoticeable in camp against NHL talent. Why do you believe anything is going to change? If the guy can't stand out against players just getting their legs under them, how do you think he's going to fair against NHL players who are in mid-season form? If the team thought he was an option, he would have been called up already. There is no way Sutter is going to bring in a 5'7, 150 pound player who is not lighting the world on fire, which he is not, and insert him into the top six.

[SuperMatt18]

There is a tailor made spot for Phillips on this team right now IMO.

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk...that line isn't being touched.

Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman....this line has been great in it's time together, they should keep them together.

Lucic - Dube - Phillips...honestly I'm not sure there is a better spot to put a smaller guy if you're worried about his size. Lucic and Dube have great chemistry on the cycle, with Lucic you don't have to worry about somebody taking liberties on Phillips, and what those two need is a bit of a creative spark which Phillips would provide.

That line has worked well with Mangiapane, and Phillips is a bit of a poor mans version of him.

Also you keep saying that he's 150 lbs but the AHL website has him listed at 5'8" and 165 lbs now, so it's a similar weight to Kailer Yamamoto (153), Tyler Ennis (160), Joel Farabee (164), Gaudreau (165), Garland (165), Debrincat (165), Caufield (165). So it's rare but not impossible for a player that size to play in the NHL.

Yamamoto is always an interesting comparison. Because they are a similar size, the same age, and had similar production in the WHL, and AHL. The main difference being that Yamamoto actually has been given some NHL chances, where Phillips was not.

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

The guy has been unnoticeable in camp against NHL talent.

He didn't have a good pre-season game this year, but he's played a combined total of 2 games and 26 minutes across the last two pre-seasons.

His AHL performance over the last 3 seasons is a lot more indicative of the quality of player he might be than 26 minutes of pre-season games the last two years.

If they never give him a shot because of 10 bad minutes of hockey, even though he's been the AHL teams offensive driver over the last 3 seasons then that would be foolish. No matter how small the player is.

"He's small" isn't a good enough reason to not give him even 2-3 games to just see what we looks like.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

We obviously aren't. You have this idea that Phillips is this incredible talent, being a top player in the AHL that has been held back for some reason by the Calgary Flames, and he's not.

I mean, that's just putting words into my mouth. While I do think he's absolutely a top player in the AHL right now (and the numbers back this up), saying I think he's an "incredible talent" seems to imply I think he's a Gaudreau or St. Louis-level guy.

I have never said this. I simply see someone who has a chance to be a good complementary middle-six forward in the NHL, at the level of a Paul Byron or a Tyler Ennis. I see someone who might be a better fit in the middle-six than Ritchie or Pitlick, who have proven they are not good options. That's it, that's all.

[TheIronMaiden]

Size isn't the problem. The problem is when he has had a shot, he never brought it.

The question isn't always does this player have a roll on the team, it is does this player make the team better night in and night out. Long shot prospects need to grab a spot and never let it go. They need to make the thought of them sitting out unimaginable.

In the case of most prospects its about how well they play without the puck. Someone like Czarnick had impressive counting stats, but it was obvious that he was not helping the team positionally or with any checking.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Size isn't the problem. The problem is when he has had a shot, he never brought it.

2 games and 26 minutes in the pre-season the last three seasons (1 game in 19-20, no games in 20-21, 1 game in 21-22)

1 game and 11 minutes in the regular season the last three seasons, and he was really good in that game he played.

The problem is he's never actually been given a real shot.

The only pre-season he got a longer look was 18-19 when he got three games, scored 2 goals, and looked like a promising youngster that just needed more time and to adapt to pro hockey coming out of junior.

And let's be honest here the reason for that is 100% his size, and more specifically that the GM/Coach don't think they can add a third small, skilled forward with Gaudreau, and Mangiapane already on the roster.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

2 games and 26 minutes in the pre-season the last two seasons.

1 game and 11 minutes in the regular season the last two seasons, and he was really good in that game he played.

The problem is he's never actually been given a real shot.

Let's be honest here the reason for that is 100% his size, and more specifically that the GM/Coach don't think they can add a third small forward with Gaudreau, and Mangiapane already on the roster.

That is a longer NHL tryout than 90% of prospects. It's not the Flamea managements fault that the likes of Jooris, Hathaway, Lomberg, or Ferland did more with that time than Phillips has.


He is not an unknown commodity Flames scouts and management have been watching him closely for some time, far be it for me to think I know more than they do.



He has been to 4 or 5 rookie camps, and 3 training camps. Those are tryouts, the regular season is not a tryout or a development camp. It's about icing the best team and winning games.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

That is a longer NHL tryout than 90% of prospects. It's not the Flamea managements fault that the likes of Jooris, Hathaway, Lomberg, or Ferland did more with that time than Phillips has.


He is not an unknown commodity Flames scouts and management have been watching him closely for some time, far be it for me to think I know more than they do.



He has been to 4 or 5 rookie camps, and 3 training camps. Those are tryouts, the regular season is not a tryout or a development camp. It's about icing the best team and winning games.

This is a bit false...his play in the AHL is also a tryout. That's literally why they have the league.

Jooris, or Ferland haven't even been on the Flames roster at the same time that Phillips has been a pro, Hathaway and Lomberg haven't been on the team since 18-19 which was Phillips first pro season, not sure why that's relevant. Those aren't the guys that got shots over Phillips.

In 19-20 it was Alan Quine, Austin Czarnik, and Buddy Robinson that got the call ups.
In 20-21 we had Joakim Nordstrom, Dominik Simon, Buddy Robinson, Zac Rinaldo, that got the ice time
This year it's Richardson, Ritchie, Lewis, and Pitlick that were brought in to fill those spots.

Flames would have been much better giving even 5 of those games they've given to these low upside veterans to Phillips, just to see what they had.

I honestly think a big issue has been COVID has changed the way training camps have worked the last two seasons.

In 20-21 there really wasn't a chance for him to play pre-season games. 21-22 Sutter had a very clear strategy that he had his 25 incumbents and wanted to break camp with them.

COVID shortening both the 19-20 and 20-21 seasons has also meant that there have been fewer games to give guys a look. IIRC Phillips was called up right before the season shutdown in 19-20, which is just unfortunate.

Plus the Flames have been relatively healthy team at forward the last three years, especially in top 9 roles. So that has made it harder for guy to get a look, we haven't had to call up many forwards.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

This is a bit false...his play in the AHL is also a tryout. That's literally why they have the league.

I honestly think a big issue has been COVID has changed the way training camps have worked the last two seasons.

In 20-21 there really wasn't a chance for him to play pre-season games. 21-22 Sutter had a very clear strategy that he had his 25 incumbents and wanted to break camp with them.

COVID shortening both the 19-20 and 20-21 seasons has also meant that there have been fewer games to give guys a look. IIRC Phillips was called up right before the season shutdown in 19-20, which is just unfortunate.

Plus the Flames have been relatively healthy team at forward the last three years, especially in top 9 roles. So that has made it harder for guy to get a look, we haven't had to call up many forwards.

To a degree you're right, Phillips has been a victim of circumstance, as have all prospects these last two years. Still, he played many of his games in the Dome last season, giving management lots of chances to watch him live. They know more about Phillips and his abilities than anyone.

My main point is this. Getting a spot on an NHL team is so competitive that players rarely get two chances. I am not saying it is fair, I am saying that when you do get a chance you have to make an impact, and Phillips unfortunately never did. He will be lucky to get another chance, and if he does, lets hope that I am wrong and he has more to prove.

[SuperMatt18]

Just for fun I wanted to look at similar performing AHL players and the opportunities they've had.

Over the last three seasons (19/20 to 21/22) here are the PPG scoring leaders in the AHL for U-25 players that have played at least 40 AHL games, and scored over .825 PPG.

Drake Batherson: 1.227 - 93 NHL Games
Josh Norris: 1.089 - 87 NHL Games
Alex Barre-Boulet: 0.974 - 31 NHL Games
Lane Pederson: 0.962 - 35 NHL Games
Logan Brown: 0.947 - 39 NHL Games
Noah Gregor: 0.930 - 79 NHL Games
Riley Damiani: 0.915 - 1 NHL Game
Justin Bailey: 0.887 - 15 NHL Games
Jack Dugan: 0.875 - 0 NHL Games
Owen Tippett: 0.870 - 78 NHL Games
Thomas Novak: 0.868 - 27 NHL Games
Tyler Benson: 0.867 - 24 NHL Games
Matthew Phillips: 0.863 - 1 NHL Games
Taro Hirose: 0.859 -33 NHL Games
Janne Kuokkanen: 0.857 - 85 NHL Games
Gabriel Vilardi: 0.848 - 71 NHL Games
Michael Bunting: 0.845 - 61 NHL Games
Julien Gauthier: 0.841 - 71 NHL Games
Cole Perfetti: 0.837 - 3 NHL Games
Glenn Gawdin: 0.835 - 9 NHL Games
Morgan Geekie: 0.825 - 72 NHL Games Played

There is a longer list of guys if I included guys that only played 20-30 AHL games but most of them are NHLers now, which is why they played so few AHL games.

The only guys that have played fewer than 10 NHL games with that type of point production in the AHL playing 40 or more AHL games.

Riley Damiani: 1 Game - 21 years old - 60 AHL Games
Jack Dugan: 0 Games - 23 years old - 48 AHL Games
Matthew Phillips: 1 Game - 23 years old - 161 AHL Games
Cole Perfetti: 3 Games - 20 years old - 49 AHL Games
Glenn Gawdin: 9 Games - 24 years old - 167 AHL Games Played

But yeah he's had ample NHL opportunities to make an impression.

[GioforPM]

I’m not sure the issue with Phillips’ size is that he’s going to be punished physically therefore creating a need to put him on a line with Lucic or Ritchie. It’s more he doesn’t have the strength to compete along the boards or in one on one battles for the puck. He weighs 140-150 pounds. Lucic isn’t going to fight every time he gets pushed down in a scrum either.

[SuperMatt18]

I keep seeing 140-150 pounds being listed but the AHL site has had him at 160-165 lbs the past two years.

He’s was even already listed at 150 pounds when he was drafted by the team in 2016, so not sure how he suddenly became 140 lbs.

By the end of this thread he's going to be 130 lbs I think.

https://www.nhl.com/flames/news/flam...-pick/c-887358