Sutter re: recalling prospects

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

You know who has a more impressive resume?

Lance Bouma

Sure. Lance Bouma was a useful 4th line player for a few years. Not sure I see your point though.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

You can handwaive my assertions a million times, but it doesn't change the reality that there is a myopic view on what the organization thinks works... even when it... doesn't actually work.

Matthew Phillips has played 0 NHL games this year.

Brett Ritchie, in a season where he's been hurt for most of the year, has played 12. And still produced as few points as Phillips. Nothing on his resume at any point in his career has ever indicated that he is NHL-calibre, yet there he is. A roster regular for no reason other than size myopia.

It's got nothing to do with Dustin Boyd and everything to do with the vast majority of the NHL vs the Calgary Flames.

Your perception/opinion isn't actual reality.

[Stampede2TheCup]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I didn't say he has been buried for years. I said they shouldn't burry him for 2 years. Not when he's already one of the best players in the league. Not when he's already one of the last 1st round picks of his draft not to play. He has been far too good to need two more years of AHL experience.

And I disagree with the premise. Yes, having played in the NHL is a way to measure the successful development of a prospect. Obviously, it's just one metric. But there is a very strong correlation between the age of one's first NHL appearance and their overall quality as a player. And at the very least, it says something about the speed of development.

I agree they shouldn't just automatically bury Pelletier for years. Why are we worrying about a hypothetical 2 years from now though? I actually believe in seeing how things go and determining based on progress, and not fretting about some arbitrary schedule. If you're saying he's too good for something, you're just looking at his points. It's more than AHL points that will determine his success in the NHL.

Whether a prospect has played in the NHL is a metric, but for a smaller than average 20-year-old when hockey has been ravaged by Covid the past couple years, it's a pretty horrible metric. By your logic, if he'd played one game for the Flames then his development would be more successful right now? Because that fits your definition.

I think at this point Pelletier has earned a call-up only at the end of the season or if injury dictates more than one call-ups at once. Anything before that I think is too early. As we've seen with guys like Bennett and Baertschi, early success far from guarantees a successful development. Right now we'd be taking him out of a situation where he's thriving in his development and just rolling the dice on trying him the NHL.

I'd rather call up Phillips before Pelletier.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

He played a total of 10 minutes and one second in the entire pre-season, exclusively with the B-squad.

That's what you're using as a base for your entire evaluation of him? That's a hilariously tiny "chance."

He had from September 16th until October 3rd to impress. 19 days. That is a lot of ice and in person time with the Flames Brass.

That includes:
The prospect game where he never stood out
Sept 26th, where he played god awful
Sept 27th where he never registered a shot ( and sat most of the night IIRC)

yeah its a small chance of in game showings, but you're a 23 year old prospect looking at potentially your last training camp. It is difficult to make an NHL team, you need to kick the doors down the moment you get a chance.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

It's "falling in love with a player" to say a guy who has led the Stockton Heat in scoring over the past two seasons and is currently one of just two U24 players in the league's top 10 scorers is one of the best players in the AHL?

Leading the Stockton Heat in scoring doesn't mean a helluva lot. He was 70th in AHL scoring last season, scoring at a .7 PPG clip, 174th in that PPG measure for players. That does NOT make him one of the best players in the AHL. He's improved this year and finally cracked the PPG barrier, but I don't even see him as the best player on the Stockton Heat, being behind both Ruzicka and Pelletier. I would think the Flames would look at it that way as well, and he may even fall behind Valimaki, Gawdin, Mackey, and Zary in that regard as well. They have priorities and I don't see Phillips addressing those priorities. There is more to the game than scoring points.

I will ask the age old question that never seems to get answered, who on this roster do you bump so Phillips plays, recognizing the roles on the team?

The only reason I've advocated for Phillips for so long is because the Flames have been hellbent against giving him even one meaningful look despite his outstanding production and play. If they'd tried him and he didn't work out, the outlook would be very different.

The reason they don't give him a look is because they don't believe his game translates to the NHL. The step between playing in the AHL and the NHL is massive. The game is quicker. The players are bigger. The space is non-existent. The things that give Phillips a chance of survival in the AHL don't exist in the NHL. I believe his last chance to impress was this past camp, and he did nothing. He just isn't a player that can play at the NHL level, and Sutter is not the type of coach that is willing to give a player with so many limiting factors a chance on the team. His fate was sealed when the Flames hired a Sutter.

[Andrew]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Sutter talked about prospects again this morning. Two comments stood out:

1) 19 year olds are boys, not men. Unless prospects are exceptional, they need 1-3 years of development in the minors.

2) In the pre-season games, Pelletier didn’t look “anywhere close” to being NHL ready.

I hope this motivates pelletier to a new level. Darryl is great

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Leading the Stockton Heat in scoring doesn't mean a helluva lot. He was 70th in AHL scoring last season, scoring at a .7 PPG clip, 174th in that PPG measure for players. That does NOT make him one of the best players in the AHL. He's improved this year and finally cracked the PPG barrier, but I don't even see him as the best player on the Stockton Heat, being behind both Ruzicka and Pelletier. I would think the Flames would look at it that way as well, and he may even fall behind Valimaki, Gawdin, Mackey, and Zary in that regard as well. They have priorities and I don't see Phillips addressing those priorities. There is more to the game than scoring points.

I will ask the age old question that never seems to get answered, who on this roster do you bump so Phillips plays, recognizing the roles on the team?

The reason they don't give him a look is because they don't believe his game translates to the NHL. The step between playing in the AHL and the NHL is massive. The game is quicker. The players are bigger. The space is non-existent. The things that give Phillips a chance of survival in the AHL don't exist in the NHL. I believe his last chance to impress was this past camp, and he did nothing. He just isn't a player that can play at the NHL level, and Sutter is not the type of coach that is willing to give a player with so many limiting factors a chance on the team. His fate was sealed when the Flames hired a Sutter.

Teams thought this same thing about a guy like Marchessault. Taking a gamble on high skill is a better gamble than on size and low skill. The best teams in the league (Carolina, Tampa, Vegas, Toronto) continue to gamble on skill over size. To their benefit. And the Flames detriment.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Teams thought this same thing about a guy like Marchessault. Taking a gamble on high skill is a better gamble than on size and low skill. The best teams in the league (Carolina, Tampa, Vegas, Toronto) continue to gamble on skill over size. To their benefit. And the Flames detriment.

But wasn't Mangiapane a gamble on skill without size? Gaudreau certainly was but clearly he was prolific.

Dube isn't big.

They drafted Phillips, Pelletier and Pettersen. lately Francis and Coronato. Kylington looks smaller than he's listed.

Seems like there are plenty of little guys around the team, you just seem to have an issue with promotion timing.

In my mind the player kicks the door in or he doesn't.

Phillips had a pretty average camp, and now he's earning a look, I'm guessing he'll get it with an injury which is the usual way players come up and stick.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But wasn't Mangiapane a gamble on skill without size? Gaudreau certainly was but clearly he was prolific.

Dube isn't big.

They drafted Phillips, Pelletier and Pettersen. lately Francis and Coronato. Kylington looks smaller than he's listed.

Seems like there are plenty of little guys around the team, you just seem to have an issue with promotion timing.

In my mind the player kicks the door in or he doesn't.

Phillips had a pretty average camp, and now he's earning a look, I'm guessing he'll get it with an injury which is the usual way players come up and stick.

All significantly bigger than Phillips. But produced at lower rates in Junior or the AHL.

Also gambles that were made by coaches who aren't Sutter.

I am not complaining. I actually have no issue with the promotion timing. I see more of an issue moving forward. I don't see Sutter playing any guys of smaller size that arent already on the team. He would ask them to play a game they can't. Which is fine. Unfortunate for them, but unsurprising.

Just gonna enjoy the team as it is now, which is pretty good. Better than we've seen in a while!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

The best teams in the league (Carolina, Tampa, Vegas, Toronto) continue to gamble on skill over size. To their benefit. And the Flames detriment.

From current NHL rosters on NHL.com

Smallest players on Carolina. Seth Jarvis - 5'10, 175; Vincent Trochek - 5'10, 183. Skaters over 6'0 - 13. Under 5'10 - Zero. Players over 185 pounds - 19. Players under 180 pounds - 4. Players under 5'8 - Zero. Players under 170 pounds - Zero.

Smallest players on Tampa. Brayden Point - 5'10, 183; Nikita Kucherov - 5'11, 183. Skaters over 6'0 - 20. Under 5'10 - Zero. Players over 185 pounds - 20. Players under 180 pounds - Zero. Players under 5'8 - Zero. Players under 170 pounds - Zero.

Smallest players on Vegas. Jonathan Marchessault - 5'9, 184; Evengi Dadonov - 5'11, 185. Skaters over 6'0 - 23. Under 5'10 - One. Players over 185 pounds - 24. Players under 180 pounds - Zero. Players under 5'8 - Zero. Players under 170 pounds - Zero.

Smallest players on Toronto. Alex Kerfoot - 5'10, 181; Rasmus Sandin - 5'11, 178. Skaters over 6'0 - 19. Under 5'10 - Zero. Players over 185 pounds - 16. Players under 180 pounds - Three. Players under 5'8 - Zero. Players under 170 pounds - Zero.

Not sure I see any of these teams taking advantage of skill over size.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

From current NHL rosters on NHL.com

Smallest players on Carolina. Seth Jarvis - 5'10, 175; Vincent Trochek - 5'10, 183. Skaters over 6'0 - 13. Under 5'10 - Zero. Players over 185 pounds - 19. Players under 180 pounds - 4. Players under 5'8 - Zero. Players under 170 pounds - Zero.

Smallest players on Tampa. Brayden Point - 5'10, 183; Nikita Kucherov - 5'11, 183. Skaters over 6'0 - 20. Under 5'10 - Zero. Players over 185 pounds - 20. Players under 180 pounds - Zero. Players under 5'8 - Zero. Players under 170 pounds - Zero.

Smallest players on Vegas. Jonathan Marchessault - 5'9, 184; Evengi Dadonov - 5'11, 185. Skaters over 6'0 - 23. Under 5'10 - One. Players over 185 pounds - 24. Players under 180 pounds - Zero. Players under 5'8 - Zero. Players under 170 pounds - Zero.

Smallest players on Toronto. Alex Kerfoot - 5'10, 181; Rasmus Sandin - 5'11, 178. Skaters over 6'0 - 19. Under 5'10 - Zero. Players over 185 pounds - 16. Players under 180 pounds - Three. Players under 5'8 - Zero. Players under 170 pounds - Zero.

Not sure I see any of these teams taking advantage of skill over size.

I am not sure what you mean? All these players play in the top 6, top 4 of their teams. High PP time.

Is that not their teams setting them up for success?

Mangiapane is one of the best even strength goal scorers for two years running and is relegated to second PP time, at best.

It kinda silly.

But Ill accept it, cause the team is actually quite good.

[Wastedyouth]

To follow this up. Pelletier as a 20 year old, is similar size to these top small players you have listed.

Pelletier is putting up 3+ shots a game in the AHL. Over a PPG. Top rookie in the AHL.

He can't unseat anyone on the Flames?

He is blowing the doors off by any measure of the phrase. No prospect the Flames have played in the AHL in the last 15 years has done what he is doing right now. I think the big team could use him.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

To follow this up. Pelletier as a 20 year old, is similar size to these top small players you have listed.

Pelletier is putting up 3+ shots a game in the AHL. Over a PPG. Top rookie in the AHL.

He can't unseat anyone on the Flames?

He is blowing the doors off by any measure of the phrase. No prospect the Flames have played in the AHL in the last 15 years has done what he is doing right now. I think the big team could use him.

And he is on track to play in the NHL, it is only a matter of how soon.

And it is not unreasonable to not want to rush him and risk derailing him.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Self-Motivation is one of Pelletier's stronger characteristics.

I have no doubt he will be ready when the NHL opportunity arises.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

To follow this up. Pelletier as a 20 year old, is similar size to these top small players you have listed.

I thought Lanny's numbers were supposed to be an answer to your claim that Phillips should be called up. Phillips is nowhere near as big as any of them.

[GioforPM]

I think people get over concerned with height compared to weight. You need heft and muscle to play in the NHL.

The other thing small guys need is speed and fast in the AHL is not necessarily fast in the NHL. I bet Mangiapane seemed like a blazer in the AHL. Here he’s not slow but I don’t see him blowing by Dmen - he is just a love average IMO.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

He just isn't a player that can play at the NHL level, and Sutter is not the type of coach that is willing to give a player with so many limiting factors a chance on the team.

You are making one hell of an absolute statement here.

Why aren't we considering that guys like Brad Richardson, Tyler Pitlick, Trevor Lewis, and Brett Ritchie have already proven that they have massive "limiting factors," as you say, at the NHL level? Matthew Phillips hasn't been given a chance to prove that he's good or bad, so how do you know that he's so much worse?

All I'm saying is that it's high time these players be replaced. Stockton has a guy who's been one of the very best goal-scorers and most efficient producers in the entire AHL this year. He was absolutely one of the most effective offensive players in the A last year, despite having all of his support on the Heat sapped from him after the first third of the season (Stockton went 3–15–2 in the final 20 games of the year and lost Zary, Kirkland, Petrovic, and Froese, very important context when discussing Phillips' 2020–21 production).

He could very well look completely out of place in the NHL but the reality is that neither you nor I have any clue if this will be the case. Given the complete dearth of upside in the Flames' current bottom six, there is zero downside in giving Phillips a chance. Zero.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Phillips isn't an NHL player. He's just too small and the NHL is a big man's game. Your team can only have so many small players on it, and Phillips is just so small no one is willing to look at him in any way. He'll be a high end AHL player, or possibly be a star in the Euro leagues, but the NHL just doesn't seem to be in the cards for him. I would not be surprised if the Flames did not renew his contract and moved on from him this summer.

Here is the reasoning you have given in this post about why the NHL doesn't seem to be in the cards for Phillips:

- He's just too small
- The NHL is a big man's game
- Your team can only have so many small players
- Phillips is just so small no one is willing to look at him in any way

So, he's too small, the NHL is for big players, your team can only have so many small players, and Phillips is a small player. Got it. Nothing about the way he actually plays, just — he's small. Which, fair point, he absolutely is small.

Let's look at how Phillips' head coach, Mitch Love, describes his game and potential as an NHLer:

On what Matthew Phillips, Stockton’s leading goal-scorer, provides the Heat on a nightly basis:

This guy — he’s 150 pounds, I couldn’t even tell you how tall he is, I mean — he goes into the hard areas of the rink, he’s so competitive on loose pucks even though his stature isn’t there. It’s hard to sit on that bench or sit behind the players on the bench and watch what he does and not follow suit because he plays the game so hard. His skillset, his creativity, his ability to make plays and people around him better just because he’s so smart and in tune with the game each and every night, he’s a fun player to watch and he’s been very key for our team’s success this year.

On what Phillips needs to improve upon to potentially be an effective player at the NHL level:

It’s hard to say. He makes plays at a high level of speed, he’s not afraid — even though he’s not a very big guy — to go to the hard areas to score and make plays for his linemates. He does a lot of really good things. He’s a smart player, again, he’s a key guy on our special teams. His leadership is outstanding in terms of driving our culture each and every day in practice and in games. I’m just glad — I had to face this guy a lot in junior, coaching against him [as an assistant with the Everett Silvertips] and, man, he was a pain, ’cause he was such an effective hockey player. It’s just really nice to have him on our side, now. […]

I think the biggest thing that sticks out for me is just his hockey sense and his competitiveness. He just plays the game so hard, he’s not afraid of anybody out there, he puts himself in harm’s way. That’s with you or it’s not. That’s something that he brings every day, and our guys recognize that, they follow suit, and, like I mentioned earlier, we’re just really fortunate to have him, he’s been a great leader for our hockey club this year.

Instead of going on and on and on about his height and completely dismissing everything else, Mitch Love touches upon it only a couple times and goes on to describe Phillips' game as such:

- He goes to the hard areas of the rink
- He's so competitive on loose pucks even though his stature isn't there
- He plays the game so hard
- He has an ability to make players around him better
- He's so smart and in tune with the game each and every night
- He's a key guy on special teams
- His leadership is outstanding
- He's not afraid of anybody out there
- He puts himself in harm's way

I think the Flames could use a couple more guys with those attributes on their team, size be damned. It hasn't hampered him at any level so far and we're going to write him off before he ever gets a legit chance in the NHL because of vague hypothetical concerns about how "you can't have too many small players" and 10 minutes in the preseason? That makes absolutely no sense. Give me a break.

Again, I'm not saying Phillips is going to be anything in the NHL. Is there potential there? Absolutely there is, but until we see him, that's all it is — potential. But he has 10000% earned a look, and it's absolute nonsense not to give him one when his competition is Brad Richardson and Brett Ritchie, and Tyler Pitlick is playing in the top six.

[Stampede2TheCup]

Has Phillips been killing penalties in the minors, and if so, how do is he doing? I think he could potentially carve out a role for himself there if he could become a good penalty killer in the NHL. I do think he has the talent for more, but that seems like a niche he could step into even if he wasn't scoring much. He may never stick in the NHL but I could also see him as a Reider-type on an NHL PK.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

All I'm saying is that it's high time these players be replaced.

It’s great that you get so enthusiastic about prospects. But you’re still pretty fresh to this hockey analyst thing. In time, you’ll come to understand what every NHL GM and coach knows: That established NHL 4th liners like Lewis, etc are more effective hockey players at the NHL level than most of the players who skate in the AHL all-star game will ever be.

Here are the 2010 AHL all-star teams:

https://theahl.com/stats/roster/367/31?league=4

Out of the 50 players, only 10 of them went on to become established NHLers.