Upcoming Mangiapane contract discussion

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Lindholm was at 16 goals, 44 points, in 82 games the year before Treliving signed him to $4.85. That’s about the PPG Mangiapane is at now.

Given a bit of a higher cap since then, yeah, $5M would be fair, though if he explodes the way Lindholm did it will look brilliant.

Yeah....its like some dont want him to sign a good value contract that would help the TEAM over helping the player.

I dont understand it.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Yeah....its like some dont want him to sign a good value contract that would help the TEAM over helping the player.

I dont understand it.

I think what has happened here is there are some who are on one extreme calling him an elite player using advanced stats to show he could be worth first liner money and term.

Others see a guy who has not scored 20 goals or broke 35pts in a season and are taking the other extreme. And ignoring games played and discounting the 5v5 stats and claim he is worth $3.5M

Cali said it right where the truth is in the middle. To me it is a 4-5M deal on a 5-6 year term if he wants to sign this summer. If he wants more then make him earn it this season which I think he will

[Number 39]

I see value in Mangiapane but even if he was a UFA no one is giving him a 6x6 IMO. No disrespect intended to the player.

[herashak]

Around 5x5 is probably best

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Lindholm was at 16 goals, 44 points, in 82 games the year before Treliving signed him to $4.85. That’s about the PPG Mangiapane is at now.

Given a bit of a higher cap since then, yeah, $5M would be fair, though if he explodes the way Lindholm did it will look brilliant.

Lindholm did have the potential to play centre though (even if he might have been viewed as more winger at the time), which might add some premium. Lindholm also had pretty much 4 seasons of ~0.5ppg vs. Mangiapane's essentially 2 seasons (178 GP is just over two seasons worth), so a bit of a larger sample size. But Mangiapane is trending upwards while Lindholm's production in Carolina was pretty flat so that's a point in his favour. All in all I think it is a reasonable comparable and I think a 5-6 year deal at $5M would be fair to both sides. Since signing RFAs is his specialty though, I expect it to come in under $4.5M if Treliving negotiates the contract.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think what has happened here is there are some who are on one extreme calling him an elite player using advanced stats to show he could be worth first liner money and term.

Honestly I think this is a bit where the discrepancy lies though.

$6M really is barely 1st liner money anymore. I swear people still look at $6M as being elite top line player money like it was when Iggy came out of the lockout, or as top line player just 6 years ago when Johnny/Mony signed, but that's not the case. True elite top line players are getting $8M+ now.

29 forwards made over $8M last year
79 forwards made over $6M last year.
104 forwards made over $5.5M last year.
121 forwards made over $5M last year.

$5-5.5M is kind of second line money right now.

I'd agree that Scorp was on the high end for sure at $6M x 6. It's not that I don't think Mangiapane couldn't live up to that deal, but you shouldn't HAVE to play him that much for what he's shown so far.

But if you could get Mangiapane to a long term deal around $5M then it's fair value for what he already brings, and could be great value if he continues to develop in a bigger role with more 5v5 and special teams time.

[The Fonz]

5yrs @ $4.50M

Lindholm was 5yrs removed from being a 7th overall pick, a center, and had put up multiple ~45 point seasons. Mangiapane is a very good player, but I don't think you give him the same contract as Lindholm (6yrs @ $4.85M).

[GioforPM]

^^

This happens a lot, and I don’t blame people for thinking that players aren’t worth $6M because, really, who is, in ordinary terms? But when you look at comparables around the league, the landscape changes. $6M gets you Brock Nelson.

People also tend to look at bargains and/or contracts signed under a lot smaller cap, like Scheifele or Mackinnon when making comparisons. Those teams lucked out (and maybe the Flames can as well) but they are not what an agent (or an arbitrator) are going to look at.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Honestly I think this is a bit where the discrepancy lies though.

$6M really is barely 1st liner money anymore. I swear people still look at $6M as being elite top line player money like it was when Iggy came out of the lockout, or as top line player just 6 years ago when Johnny/Mony signed, but that's not the case. True elite top line players are getting $8M+ now.

29 forwards made over $8M last year
79 forwards made over $6M last year.
104 forwards made over $5.5M last year.
121 forwards made over $5M last year.

$5-5.5M is kind of second line money right now.

I'd agree that Scorp was on the high end for sure at $6M x 6. It's not that I don't think Mangiapane couldn't live up to that deal, but you shouldn't HAVE to play him that much for what he's shown so far.

But if you could get Mangiapane to a long term deal around $5M then it's fair value for what he already brings, and could be great value if he continues to develop in a bigger role with more 5v5 and special teams time.

Iggy was not a top line player making $7M he was a franchise player and one of the very best players in the league when he signed that extension. Based on your stats up there $6M is still a first line forward money when you take 104/31 basically shows that a little more than 3.3 forwards per team make $6M so your top line and second line C. End of the day I know some teams have more or less.

I am still waiting to hear which forward who was not coming out of an elc got 6x6 when they have not actually scored 20 goals in a season or 35pts?

I really think the Rasmus Andersson contract would be the deal to sign before this season and if he wants more than $5M per he needs to go out and earn it next year. I definitely agree with your last sentence there

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

^^

This happens a lot, and I don’t blame people for thinking that players aren’t worth $6M because, really, who is, in ordinary terms? But when you look at comparables around the league, the landscape changes. $6M gets you Brock Nelson.

Brock Nelson was a perennial 20-25 goal scorer, a milestone that Mangiapane would have only reached once (this season) and pending UFA, so I'd argue that if pending-UFA 28yo Nelson got $6.0M, then $4.5M for pending-RFA 25yo Mangiapane is right in the wheelhouse of appropriate value.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

People also tend to look at bargains and/or contracts signed under a lot smaller cap, like Scheifele or Mackinnon when making comparisons. Those teams lucked out (and maybe the Flames can as well) but they are not what an agent (or an arbitrator) are going to look at.

If anyone has made comparables to MacKinnon or Scheifele in the last 2 years then I would agree they're out to lunch. Those contracts are entirely irrelevant today.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

^^

This happens a lot, and I don’t blame people for thinking that players aren’t worth $6M because, really, who is, in ordinary terms? But when you look at comparables around the league, the landscape changes. $6M gets you Brock Nelson.

People also tend to look at bargains and/or contracts signed under a lot smaller cap, like Scheifele or Mackinnon when making comparisons. Those teams lucked out (and maybe the Flames can as well) but they are not what an agent (or an arbitrator) are going to look at.

You let me know when a team wins a cup with a $6 million Brock Nelson. Just because some teams are willing to pay that much for players of that ilk doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You let me know when a team wins a cup with a $6 million Brock Nelson. Just because some teams are willing to pay that much for players of that ilk doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

Alex Steen was making $5.75M and Bozak $5M when the Blues won the cup.

Nelson is probably a better player than both of them. Maybe not at the peak of their careers, but better than them now than when they won the cup with the Blues.

And to be clear I'm not advocating for $6M for Mangiapane. To me $5M x 5 seasons still seems like the right deal if they can make that work. Would mean he's making $5M until he's 31 years old (think that's the math on his age). Anything less than $5M would be even better, but my gut feeling is that if they try to do an extension this summer is that it's probably 5 years for about $5M per season.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You let me know when a team wins a cup with a $6 million Brock Nelson. Just because some teams are willing to pay that much for players of that ilk doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

Maybe not but it’s arguably the market the Flames are playing in. I’m also not advocating $6M, but it’s not a crazy ask by him. Nor is a $4M offer by Calgary. Which is why he’ll make close to $5M.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I do think this is going to be a difficult negotiation. I mean, he sat out before on what should have been an 'easy' contract to come to terms on.


Production trumps all. Mangiapane doesn't have any history of production to warrant a 6 million deal. Period.


Except I guess that he does. Sparkling underlying numbers and elite 5on5 numbers.


I have no idea what will happen. I hope whatever happens, it is a long-term deal that will (at the very least, with hindsight) be deemed a bargain for the Flames.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I get it. You don't like advanced stats. But really all people do when they post BS like you just posted is admit their own ignorance. Nothing I posted is cherry picked...

+1 to this

Anyone who thinks 5v5 Points / 60, especially 5v5 Primary points/60 are "cherry-picked" stats is, quite honestly, ignorant. 5v5 P1/60 is probably the single scoring stat in the NHL that can isolate itself from a lot of context information (of course not all).

[timun]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The seasons are irrelevant to me when comparing their careers up to that point.

...

And honestly points per 60 is not a cherry picked stat at all, it's becoming a more and more widely used stat because it helps normalize usage and minutes played.

I get it. You don't like advanced stats. But really all people do when they post BS like you just posted is admit their own ignorance. Nothing I posted is cherry picked, if I cherry picked I would have just shown the per 60 stats, it's not cherry picking when you show pretty much all the stats available. Get all worked up all you want but the numbers shared are just actual stats. Our interpretation of the stats can be different, that's fine, but nothing was cherry picked. I put more value in 5V5 stats, especially adjusted for GP and per 60 minutes, you put more value in the raw point production and that's fine.

The bolded reinforces my overarching point: you ARE cherry-picking stats, because you are choosing to deem "the seasons are irrelevant", and you put LESS "value in the raw point production". That's what cherry-picking statistics is Matt: choosing to ignore statistics that don't back up your view.

You're looking at raw 5-on-5 statistics, normalizing them to account for time on ice, and pooping out hot takes like "Andrew Mangiapane is basically Brad Marchand less the special teams time". And you are willfully, deliberately ignoring the actual, "raw" results to make this conclusion. It's confirmation bias on your part, so stop bull****ting us all by saying you're NOT doing so: YOU ARE.

Oh, and with respect to "really all people do when they post BS like you just posted is admit their own ignorance"? Typical "advanced stats geek" condescension and arrogance. I know this is going to be painful to hear, but you're not the smartest person in the room.

And what I don't get is the stats actually back up the play from watching the games. It's not like Mangiapane looks like a plug if you watch the games, there is easily an argument that Mangiapane has been our most consistent forward the last two seasons, just from watching the games. Doesn't matter what line he is on, doesn't matter who he is playing with, he's generally noticeable in a postive way on the ice shift after shift.

I get it. It's cool to #### on every single Flames player right now. The organization is terrible, we should be tanking, everyone sucks....etc, etc. But honestly don't get why it's hard for people to admit that there actually might be something here with Mangiapane.

Where did I say Andrew Mangiapane is a plug? Where did I say he's inconsistent? Where did I say he sucks? I didn't, at any point, say anything of the sort. I said offer him $3.5M a year: you don't give plugs that kind of money. If I thought he sucked I would have said "**** it, get rid of him, he sucks".

All I said is $6M/yr is far too much money for Mangiapane. You came along and trotted out your advanced stats to make the case that Mangiapane = Marchand ∴ Mangiapane ought to be paid $5M+ per annum, which is patently ridiculous and I said as much.

Go ask Gerard Gallant what he thinks of Mangiapane and the impact he's had on that team Canada team that was winless before Mangiapane got there, Mangiapane leads the tournment in PPG by a large margin, and Canada are now in the semi-finals.

Bully for Mangiapane being great at the world championships, that's excellent, I hope he does well and I hope it's a confidence boost that carries forward to the next NHL season. That said, he racked up points against the likes of teams Norway, Kazakhstan and Italy. The talent level at this year's world championships is by far the worst in recent memory, and no one should forget that.

[GioforPM]

^^ $3.5 is way too low if you expect any kind of term.

[TheScorpion]

Ultimately all I said is I'd have no problem with 6 x 6, if it got to that. I think that's probably going to end up being high — 6 x $5.25 would be right in the ballpark of what I think would make the most sense for both sides.

But — there are a ton of UFA years at stake and I don't think the Mangiapane camp is going to be willing to move much more than an inch from their initial ask. Not after the 2019 negotation.

[Strange Brew]

Mangiapane had excellent production this year. He also had 5 goals in the four meaningless games against Vancouver which really helped his numbers.

This team really needs to figure out the top six and who will play where. I’m fine with offering him some term but we need a plan here. This team has proven that a top six of Lindholm, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Monahan, Mangiapane and Backlund won’t win anything. Keeping Mangiapane is logical but paying him $6 million makes it that much harder to upgrade anywhere else.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You let me know when a team wins a cup with a $6 million Brock Nelson. Just because some teams are willing to pay that much for players of that ilk doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

What do you have against Brock Nelson? Right now he is the centre on NYI best line and are in the 2nd round . They are a shot away from having the lead on Boston.

He would likely be the #1c on the Flames. A bigger better version of Backlund, especially in the playoffs