[GDT] Flames vs. Avalanche, 7 pm, SNF

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

You're vastly exaggerating how much drafting has improved. There are still plenty of first round busts and late round gems. The obvious Flames examples have already been provided, but also consider that while Lidstrom was drafted 53rd overall, PK Subban was drafted 43rd overall and Shea Weber was drafted 49th overall. If the exact player that Lidstrom was in 1988 as a 17 year old was playing now and being scouted for the 2016 entry draft he would probably still be picked in the same range of draft picks as he was then.

Heck, a lot of the same people who were doing the scouting in the late 80s are still active scouts now.

A lot of what he was talking about (finding all stars late) was not due to poorer scouting back then but instead from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reluctance of clubs to take the elite Russians high. Detroit benefitted from this more than would be possible today.

All that said I do think scouting has improved, mostly due to better coverage due to increased budgets. More important than that is that worldwide talent has improved so there is a deeper talent pool to pick from.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

A lot of what he was talking about (finding all stars late) was not due to poorer scouting back then but instead from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reluctance of clubs to take the elite Russians high. Detroit benefitted from this more than would be possible today.

All that said I do think scouting has improved, mostly due to better coverage due to increased budgets. More important than that is that worldwide talent has improved so there is a deeper talent pool to pick from.

It's improved from the early 80s for sure, and even likely since 89 (Lidstrom's year), but since the early 90s to now not much has changed. The last major change was the fall of the iron curtain, and it took teams a few years to properly value those players. Detroit made out like bandits during this time because they got this sorted out first.

The fact that players come out of junior more prepared than ever for the NHL actually reflects badly on modern scouting. The overall talent pool is larger and the players are better coached than ever at the junior level, but the number of 1st round busts and later round stars hasn't changed by much at all.

This is probably because the number one reason a first rounder bust is injuries. And that hasn't changed, and probably never will change. It's just not a predictable factor in a players development.

[Computerjungle]

A win tonight and we are 9 points from the last wild card...just saying🙄

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Buffalo is one of the best young teams in the league. They rebuilt very well and are poised for a step forward and a lot of future success IMO. Avs aren't nearly as well built but that's not because of Duchesne, MacKinnon and Landeskog.

Always poised never a bride?

I'll be impressed when they show they are an elite team.

Imo Calgary is on track to be elite.

But right now we both only have conjecture.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

There were definitely more 1st round busts in the 60s/70s/80s than there are today, just look at those drafts if you're curious. They are a mess for the most part. Even 1st overall picks were pretty hit-or-miss, as at least half of the 1st overall picks from 1963-1990 could safely be considered busts (relative to draft position and comparing to other players taken later in the same draft). That is hardly the case today.

The fall of the Soviet Union was obviously key in improving draft success, but I would contend that scouting accuracy has still come a long way since then. 1990-present day is a different story, but that wasn't the context of my posts.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

The fact that players come out of junior more prepared than ever for the NHL actually reflects badly on modern scouting. The overall talent pool is larger and the players are better coached than ever at the junior level, but the number of 1st round busts and later round stars hasn't changed by much at all.

This is probably because the number one reason a first rounder bust is injuries. And that hasn't changed, and probably never will change. It's just not a predictable factor in a players development.

I think the number one reason for busting is you're drafting a teenager not a man and you can never predict with certainty what kind of man the teenager will grow into. All young players need to improve, overcome adversity, sustain confidence in themselves through trying times, etc. But how do you measure a person's ability to improve? How do you measure their determination? How do you measure their belief in themselves? How do you measure the ability to stay focused and not get distracted by drugs, fame and partying? A huge amount of whether a young player will achieve his full potential is psychological. Scouts try to talk to coaches, parents, and teammates to gauge some of these psychological factors. Sometimes their play on the ice illuminates their character, you can see Bennett's determination, will to succeed, relentless pursuit of the puck. His on ice actions show the type of character that will succeed and is likely to hit his potential. This is why you may see Flames management and scouts talk about trying to find prospects who exhibit high levels of compete, determination, work ethic, consistency, passion for the game, etc. All the skill in the world can fail without those qualities (see Daigle.)

I think the psychological factors that are hard to gauge are the biggest reason why scouting is the crapshoot it is and likely always will be. Luckily our scouts take it into account and aren't just drafting the most purely skilled player.

[Heavy Jack]

So looking at the wild card standings and this being a 4 point game in said wild card standings (technically I mean) I was curious to see what would have to happen for the Flames to somehow squeak into the 2nd spot...

12 game sweep gives us 24 + 65 = 89 points... (Definitely need all 89)

In front of the Flames are the following teams:

Colorado Avalanche 76 points -- 14 points away from mathematically eliminating us.

@ Calgary Flames -- Speaks for itself... must win for Calgary (L)
@ Edmonton Oilers -- lol the tank is strong with them (W)
VS Philadelphia Flyers -- Out of the playoffs.. but battling (W)
VS Minnesota Wild -- Big 4 point game in the wild card... (L Just no OT!)
@ Nashville Predators -- Tops of West Wild Card by 9 points (W)
@ St. Louis Blues -- Tough matchup, 2nd best in the west (W)
VS Washington Capitals -- In tough, best team in the league (L)
VS St. Louis Blues -- Tough matchup, 2nd best in the west (W)
@ Nashville Predators -- Tops of West Wild Card by 9 points (W)
@ Dallas Stars -- In tough against best team in the west (L)
VS Anaheim Ducks -- Could be an important battle here.. (OTL)

A record of 6-4-1 + a 12-0-0 Gets the Flames ahead of these guys.... hahaha

Minnesota Wild 75 points -- 15 points away from mathematically eliminating us.

VS Carolina Hurricanes -- Should be an easy (W)
@ Chicago Blackhawks -- In tough, defending champs (W)
VS LA Kings -- In tough against a heavy Kings team (OTL)
VS Calgary Flames -- Speaks for itself... must win for Calgary (L)
@ Colorado Avalanche -- Again...no OT here (W)
VS Chicago Blackhawks -- In tough, defending champs (L)
VS Ottawa Senators -- Should be an easy (W)
@ Detroit Red Wings -- DRW are desperate... toss up (OTL)
@ Winnipeg Jets -- Should be an easy (W)
VS San Jose Sharks -- Hard battle (W)
VS Calgary Flames -- Could be a big one hahaha (L)

A record of 6-4-2 + a 12-0-0 Gets the Flames ahead of these guys.... hahaha

Arizona Coyotes 69 points -- 21 points away from mathematically eliminating us.

VS Tampa Bay Lightning -- In tough because Arizona is tanking hard (L)
@ San Jose Sharks -- In tough.... tanking (L)
VS Edmonton Oilers -- They are tanking... hard.. but its Edmonton (W)
VS Dallas Stars -- Yea... (L)
VS Philadelphia Flyers -- They could win this one... (L)
VS Calgary Flames -- Its been established that we need to sweep... (L)
@ Dallas Stars -- Who's that 1st overall rated guy from Scotsdale again?? (L)
VS Washington Capitals -- HAHAHAHAHA (L)
@ St Louis Blues -- Yea x 2 (L)
@ Chicago Blackhawks -- We'll give them a weird win (W)
@ Nashville Predators -- Another weird win! (W)
@ San Jose Sharks -- TREE IN A ROW (W)

Not even worried about these guys... they need 10+ wins or like 9 wins and all their losses in OT in a scenario that sees Calgary running the table down the stretch...

Vancouver Canucks 66 points -- 24 points away from mathematically eliminating us.

@ Edmonton Oilers -- TankTankTankTankTankTankTank (W)
VS St Louis Blues -- Hard matchup... (L)
@ Winnipeg Jets -- Jets trending downward (L)
@ Nashville Predators -- Hard matchup (W)
@ St Louis Blues -- Hard matchup again (W)
VS Chicago Blawkhawks -- Their days of slaying dragons are done.... (L)
VS San Jose Sharks -- Give em a win in this one (W)
@ San Jose Sharks -- Give em a loss for the split (L)
@ Anaheim Ducks -- Go Beiksa/Kesler GO ... ewwww (W)
VS LA Kings -- LAK for the WIN (OTL)
@ Edmonton Oilers -- DAMMIT EDMONTON (W)
@ Calgary Flames -- ... (OTL)
VS Edmonton Oilers -- ... (W)

7-4-2 doesn't even get them near the Flames in a run the table scenario...

Funnily enough if the Flames swept the sched we wouldn't have a completely terrible chance at sneaking into the playoffs... All the teams ahead of us hardly play the teams ahead of us... but yea that's like sweeping 3 straight playoff series atm and I just don't see it... But I will cheer for that over the 'Lost one for Auston' crowd any day of the week...

Keep the post season alive with a big 6-1 win boys!!!

[jammies]

Personally I find the idea of finishing behind the Oilers offensive, and the more points in between the teams, the better. Anyone hoping to finish behind Edmonton is a stinkin' mullet-lover, self-toucher, and probably bathes far less frequently than needed.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by jammies

Personally I find the idea of finishing behind the Oilers offensive, and the more points in between the teams, the better. Anyone hoping to finish behind Edmonton is a stinkin' mullet-lover, self-toucher, and probably bathes far less frequently than needed.

Finishing behind them in 2013 landed the Flsmes Monahan and the Oilers Nurse.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Finishing behind them in 2013 landed the Flsmes Monahan and the Oilers Nurse.

Apparently that's bad.

[flamesforcup]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

So looking at the wild card standings and this being a 4 point game in said wild card standings (technically I mean) I was curious to see what would have to happen for the Flames to somehow squeak into the 2nd spot...

12 game sweep gives us 24 + 65 = 89 points... (Definitely need all 89)

In front of the Flames are the following teams:

Colorado Avalanche 76 points -- 14 points away from mathematically eliminating us.

@ Calgary Flames -- Speaks for itself... must win for Calgary (L)
@ Edmonton Oilers -- lol the tank is strong with them (W)
VS Philadelphia Flyers -- Out of the playoffs.. but battling (W)
VS Minnesota Wild -- Big 4 point game in the wild card... (L Just no OT!)
@ Nashville Predators -- Tops of West Wild Card by 9 points (W)
@ St. Louis Blues -- Tough matchup, 2nd best in the west (W)
VS Washington Capitals -- In tough, best team in the league (L)
VS St. Louis Blues -- Tough matchup, 2nd best in the west (W)
@ Nashville Predators -- Tops of West Wild Card by 9 points (W)
@ Dallas Stars -- In tough against best team in the west (L)
VS Anaheim Ducks -- Could be an important battle here.. (OTL)

A record of 6-4-1 + a 12-0-0 Gets the Flames ahead of these guys.... hahaha

Minnesota Wild 75 points -- 15 points away from mathematically eliminating us.

VS Carolina Hurricanes -- Should be an easy (W)
@ Chicago Blackhawks -- In tough, defending champs (W)
VS LA Kings -- In tough against a heavy Kings team (OTL)
VS Calgary Flames -- Speaks for itself... must win for Calgary (L)
@ Colorado Avalanche -- Again...no OT here (W)
VS Chicago Blackhawks -- In tough, defending champs (L)
VS Ottawa Senators -- Should be an easy (W)
@ Detroit Red Wings -- DRW are desperate... toss up (OTL)
@ Winnipeg Jets -- Should be an easy (W)
VS San Jose Sharks -- Hard battle (W)
VS Calgary Flames -- Could be a big one hahaha (L)

A record of 6-4-2 + a 12-0-0 Gets the Flames ahead of these guys.... hahaha

Arizona Coyotes 69 points -- 21 points away from mathematically eliminating us.

VS Tampa Bay Lightning -- In tough because Arizona is tanking hard (L)
@ San Jose Sharks -- In tough.... tanking (L)
VS Edmonton Oilers -- They are tanking... hard.. but its Edmonton (W)
VS Dallas Stars -- Yea... (L)
VS Philadelphia Flyers -- They could win this one... (L)
VS Calgary Flames -- Its been established that we need to sweep... (L)
@ Dallas Stars -- Who's that 1st overall rated guy from Scotsdale again?? (L)
VS Washington Capitals -- HAHAHAHAHA (L)
@ St Louis Blues -- Yea x 2 (L)
@ Chicago Blackhawks -- We'll give them a weird win (W)
@ Nashville Predators -- Another weird win! (W)
@ San Jose Sharks -- TREE IN A ROW (W)

Not even worried about these guys... they need 10+ wins or like 9 wins and all their losses in OT in a scenario that sees Calgary running the table down the stretch...

Vancouver Canucks 66 points -- 24 points away from mathematically eliminating us.

@ Edmonton Oilers -- TankTankTankTankTankTankTank (W)
VS St Louis Blues -- Hard matchup... (L)
@ Winnipeg Jets -- Jets trending downward (L)
@ Nashville Predators -- Hard matchup (W)
@ St Louis Blues -- Hard matchup again (W)
VS Chicago Blawkhawks -- Their days of slaying dragons are done.... (L)
VS San Jose Sharks -- Give em a win in this one (W)
@ San Jose Sharks -- Give em a loss for the split (L)
@ Anaheim Ducks -- Go Beiksa/Kesler GO ... ewwww (W)
VS LA Kings -- LAK for the WIN (OTL)
@ Edmonton Oilers -- DAMMIT EDMONTON (W)
@ Calgary Flames -- ... (OTL)
VS Edmonton Oilers -- ... (W)

7-4-2 doesn't even get them near the Flames in a run the table scenario...

Funnily enough if the Flames swept the sched we wouldn't have a completely terrible chance at sneaking into the playoffs... All the teams ahead of us hardly play the teams ahead of us... but yea that's like sweeping 3 straight playoff series atm and I just don't see it... But I will cheer for that over the 'Lost one for Auston' crowd any day of the week...

Keep the post season alive with a big 6-1 win boys!!!

I believe!
Imagine if we made it. It would be insane. And if there was one team that could pull it off its the never say die flames

[Yrebmi]

The possibility -however small- of any non play-off team drafting top three allows me to cheer happily for all wins and also a good draft pick.

I don't need to be realistic, I'm an optimist and a sports fan.

GFG!!!!

[AcGold]

Originally Posted by Computerjungle

A win tonight and we are 9 points from the last wild card...just saying��

Don't even... hope is long dead and buried. Don't you make me have to stare at its rotting corpse dude, not enough beers to suffice.

[Computerjungle]

Originally Posted by AcGold

Don't even... hope is long dead and buried. Don't you make me have to stare at its rotting corpse dude, not enough beers to suffice.

Lol...really throwing anything against the wall to make these games interesting